The hottest Evidence Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Ground Truths • 3324 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
🔬 Science Mathematics Health Evidence Uncertainty Research
  1. Science is about understanding uncertainty and the limits of what we know. It's important to recognize that truth can change as new evidence comes in.
  2. Different types of proof, such as randomized trials or natural experiments, all have their pros and cons. It's crucial to evaluate what type is best for the situation at hand.
  3. Repetition can affect our belief in something, even if it's not true. It's essential to stay open to different viewpoints and challenge our own beliefs.

MBTI, If You Want Me Back, You Need to Change Too

Granted • 8705 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
🔬 Science Personality Research Psychology Experiments Evidence
  1. Consider embracing the latest data to improve the theory by moving away from antiquated ideas and focusing on more reliable traits.
  2. Demand real evidence for efficacy by conducting randomized, controlled experiments to validate the benefits claimed by MBTI.
  3. Understand that many scientists have left MBTI due to concerns about its validity and its historical associations with racism and sexism.
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Do You Have Evidence?

Disaffected Newsletter • 1 HN point • 26 Sep 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debate Manipulation Evidence Communication Critique
  1. Some people don't really care about real evidence; they're just trying to challenge you for show. It's more about their ego than the truth.
  2. When someone demands proof for something obvious, it's usually a tactic to dismiss your point instead of engaging in a real discussion.
  3. Instead of giving in to their demands for evidence, consider ignoring them or showing others how they manipulate arguments. This helps everyone stay aware of these tactics.

Bike lock agitators and the license of reasonableness

The End(s) of Argument • 59 implied HN points • 02 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Misinformation Protests Evidence
  1. People may misrepresent evidence to support their claims by portraying it as reasonable.
  2. Misinformation can have a significant impact by influencing public perception and shaping what is considered reasonable.
  3. Maintaining reasonableness in arguments requires honest representation of evidence and adherence to norms to keep the license of reasonableness intact.

30,000 registration mailers and the problem with the phrase "technically true"

The End(s) of Argument • 19 implied HN points • 30 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Misinformation Evidence Political Discourse
  1. The importance of providing context when presenting facts. In the example of 30,000 registration mailers, key details like the mailers not conferring voting rights were crucial.
  2. The issue with the phrase "technically true" and how it can be misleading. Just because something is 'technically true' doesn't mean it's not deceptive when used selectively to support an argument.
  3. Highlighting the necessity of clear, undistorted evidence in making claims. It's crucial to ensure that the evidence presented truly supports the argument being made.

The Biden Money Laundering Operation

The Reactionary • 212 implied HN points • 10 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investigation Corruption Foreign influence Payments Evidence
  1. The House Oversight Committee discovered a complex money laundering scheme involving the Biden family and foreign companies.
  2. Payments over $10 million were made to Biden family members, with funds structured to conceal their origins.
  3. The investigation also revealed significant financial involvement with foreign entities, particularly from China, and highlighted the need for further scrutiny.

Productive Struggle, Q&A

Pershmail • 58 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
🚌 Education Teaching Research Learning Evidence
  1. Productive struggle has different definitions in research, leading to confusion and debate.
  2. Research on productive struggle focuses on the importance of struggle as a component of learning.
  3. It's crucial to dig deeper and understand the specific mechanisms through which struggle can lead to learning.

Reasonableness: An Introduction

The End(s) of Argument • 39 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
🚌 Education Beliefs Reasoning Misinformation Evidence Argumentation
  1. Two primary accounts of the relation between evidence and belief in misinformation research are naive and non-naive models, both with limitations.
  2. People's pursuit of reasonableness influences how they collect and share evidence to support their beliefs, aiming to seem rational to others.
  3. Beliefs are often maintained through a balance of evidence and perceived reasonableness, impacting how individuals process and adopt new information.

There's a UFO in My Garage

Skeptic • 61 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
🔬 Science Extraterrestrial Life Skepticism UFOs Evidence
  1. The public frenzy over UFOs and UAPs is increasing due to recent congressional hearings.
  2. It's important to approach extraordinary claims with skepticism and demand evidence for beliefs in aliens or UFOs.
  3. Being open-minded but skeptical is key when evaluating claims about extraterrestrial intelligence and UFO sightings.

I still think it's very unlikely we're observing alien aircraft

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 22 HN points • 14 Jun 23
🔬 Science Astronomy Skepticism Physics Evidence Aliens
  1. Some think there might be alien aircraft on Earth due to the vastness of the universe and numerous reports.
  2. Eyewitness reports of strange aircraft are taken seriously and are difficult to explain.
  3. Old observations suggesting alien aircraft have been debunked, lack of conclusive evidence is a key factor against their existence.

Evidence Belongs on the Canvas Not the Scale

Metarational • 19 implied HN points • 20 Apr 21
🔬 Science Mathematics Probability Evidence Metaphor
  1. Evaluating evidence like weighing it on a balance scale can be an elegant metaphor but may not be mathematically correct, as evidence doesn't always work that way.
  2. The scenario with two judges deliberating on a statement showcases how evidence overlap matters, revealing flaws in the scale metaphor and emphasizing the need for a more nuanced model.
  3. Imagining evidence on a canvas with shaded regions for different hypotheses can better capture the complexity of multiple evidence lines overlapping, offering a more accurate representation than a simple scale.

How a Study Can Show Something to Be True When It’s Completely False — Regression to the Mean

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 59 implied HN points • 01 Apr 11
🔬 Science Research Bias Statistics Evidence
  1. Studies can mistakenly show false results as true due to regression to the mean, a common phenomenon in research.
  2. Research results can be influenced by statistical artifacts like regression to the mean, highlighting the importance of critical evaluation of study data.
  3. Proper randomization is crucial in research to avoid misleading results caused by regression to the mean.

Tropes and evidence

The End(s) of Argument • 0 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
🚌 Education Research Evidence Interpretation Critical Thinking Verification
  1. Tropes are narrative devices used in storytelling, which help people quickly interpret events based on surface similarities to past experiences.
  2. Tropes can sometimes lead to misinterpretations of evidence, influencing how people categorize information.
  3. Tropes serve as powerful interpretative shortcuts, but they can cause individuals to see connections or meanings that may not actually be present.

The precautionary principle

Hypertext • 0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🔬 Science Policy Research Crime Justice Evidence
  1. Policy interventions should focus on 'stabilizers' - social forces that are difficult to change, rather than seeking unclear systemic reforms.
  2. Experiments like RCTs in criminal justice can provide meaningful insights, even if their scope is narrow, and they can be scaled with political will.
  3. Not all policy interventions are suitable for RCTs, but evidence from experiments should be considered as incremental tests for replication and scalability.

Causal research: More, not less

Hypertext • 0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Research Policy Social Science Evidence Public Policy
  1. Understanding the effects of policies on people's lives is crucial, and causal research can provide valuable information to guide decision-making.
  2. Critiques of causal social science highlight the need for improvement in research publishing practices, such as publishing null studies and ensuring clarity on statistically significant but small results.
  3. Replication studies in policy-making, especially with experimental interventions like RCTs, can offer valuable insights to refine policies before widespread implementation, and continuous use of evidence can help in making incremental progress.