The hottest Asset Valuation Substack posts right now

Much of the $58 trillion in U.S. residential real estate value reflects higher prices on existing homes caused by constrained supply, so it is rent extraction rather than new wealth from better housing.
New home construction has lagged, reversing the old "filtering down" process so older homes now "filter up," raising rents and lowering real incomes—especially for lower-income families.
Official household net worth is overstated because future rent gains are counted as assets while the costs to tenants are not counted as liabilities, meaning measured wealth rose without improving living standards.

Low-tier home prices have risen much faster than high-tier prices, so being poor and housed has become significantly more expensive and the gains in real estate wealth are a regressive transfer to owners of scarce housing.
Most of the aggregate rise in home values comes from an extra, supply-driven premium that filters across markets, meaning inadequate housing supply—especially in upward-filtering cities—has been the primary driver, not agglomeration or just higher incomes.
Common price measures and policy responses obscured the real problem: indexes of existing homes overstate scarcity effects and post-boom credit tightening lowered prices temporarily without fixing undersupply, leaving families paying higher rents, staying put longer, and facing worse housing outcomes.

Sports franchises are now seen as trophy assets, where owners often care more about the prestige of ownership than making a profit. This trend makes buying teams feel more like collecting than investing.
The prices for sports teams have skyrocketed in recent years, often without clear ties to their financial performance or success on the field. This disconnect means teams can be seen as overpriced compared to their actual value.
As ownership of teams shifts to extremely wealthy individuals, the dynamics of sports may change. Owners might prioritize star players for their fame, reshaping how teams are built and how fans experience the games.

Currency debasement is a long-running, multi-decade trend that accelerated after currencies were decoupled from gold, and it has generally boosted asset prices and favored people who own assets over those who rely mainly on labor.
The real pain for savers comes from interest-adjusted debasement — when money supply grows faster than bond yields, bondholders lose purchasing power, as seen in the big debasement spikes around 2020–21.
The era of steadily falling long-term interest rates is likely over, so debasement may continue but with a weaker tailwind for valuations; bonds may still lose value in real terms but not as rapidly, and investors should expect different relative performance across stocks, gold, crypto, and housing.

Trophy assets are unique and rare, often gaining value from their scarcity, history, or recognition. This means they can be very desirable when they go up for sale.
These assets usually generate cash flow, making them more like traditional investments rather than just collectibles. Their value can be assessed based on their potential earnings.
When people label an asset as a trophy, it can suggest that buyers might be paying a premium due to emotional reasons, rather than just financial ones. Sometimes, this is justified if the asset offers future growth or synergies.

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Natural disasters can change how we think about risk over long periods of time. We often base our expectations on past events, which might not be enough for rare but powerful situations.
Experts often seem surprised by big events, even though they are supposed to know what to expect. This makes us question what we really mean by 'expertise' when big surprises keep happening.
After a disaster, companies and investors face big challenges in managing risk. It's harder to prepare for unpredictable events, and these events can seriously affect the value of businesses and the market.

The market is experiencing a lot of ups and downs, with some recovery seen recently. However, many global indices are still down significantly compared to earlier this year.
Investors should go back to basic evaluation strategies during this unpredictable time. It's important to assess potential company shakeups and their financial health rather than solely relying on past data.
The survival of companies is at risk, especially those with high debt or poor earnings. The post-crisis market might look very different as new winners and losers emerge.

Value investing has become too strict and doesn't adapt to new businesses, especially in tech. This has caused some investors to miss great opportunities.
It's important to understand the difference between value and price when investing. These concepts are different and need different ways to look at them.
Investing isn't about being morally right; it's about making smart choices. Value investors should respect other investing styles and learn from them to improve their own strategies.