The hottest Economic Impact Substack posts right now

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How Will the Trump Tariffs Affect Construction?

Construction Physics • 17955 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economic Impact Imports
  1. Tariffs on imports can greatly impact construction costs. For example, the recent 25% tariffs on materials from Canada and Mexico might lead to higher prices for building projects.
  2. A significant part of construction relies on imports, especially metals and interior components. In 2022, nearly $469 billion in construction-related imports were recorded in the U.S.
  3. Most construction materials come from various countries around the world. No single country dominates the market, showing how global trade supports the construction industry.

Inside the Interconnection Queue

Construction Physics • 27559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Infrastructure Renewable Energy Regulatory issues Economic Impact
  1. There are currently over 11,000 energy projects waiting to connect to the US electrical grid, with a total capacity that is nearly double what currently exists. This shows a huge demand for new power sources.
  2. The waiting time for projects has increased to over 5 years, causing delays in getting new energy infrastructure built. This bottleneck is a significant issue for the growth of renewable energy projects.
  3. Most upcoming projects are focused on renewable energy like solar, wind, and batteries, representing around 90% of planned capacity. This shift highlights a strong move towards cleaner energy across many states.

Selfishly Speaking, Who Should Skip College?

Bet On It • 488 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🚌 Education Higher education Career Paths Economic Impact
  1. College might not be worth it for everyone, especially if your grades or test scores are not high. It's important to understand your own abilities before deciding.
  2. Don't let others' opinions about jobs or status dictate your choices. Sometimes a job that's seen as 'low' can actually be a good career for you.
  3. If you work hard and have the right skills, there are many paths to success that don't require a college degree. Focus on what suits you best.

The Sad Saga of Bud Light

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2986 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💼 Business Marketing Branding Corporate culture Consumer behavior Economic Impact
  1. Bud Light was once America's favorite beer, but it lost its top spot after a marketing move focused on social issues. Many customers turned away from the brand.
  2. The shift towards diversity and inclusion in corporate strategies can sometimes backfire. For Bud Light, it cost them loyal customers and sales.
  3. It's important for companies to balance social goals with their business interests. Ignoring customer preferences can lead to serious repercussions.

Anchorage Aweigh

Doomberg • 6151 implied HN points • 17 May 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy crisis Natural resources Economic Impact
  1. Anchorage, Alaska, faces a potential energy crisis due to dwindling natural gas supplies. The community relies heavily on this resource for electricity and heating during cold winters.
  2. The local oil and gas companies have not been drilling enough new wells to replace the declining existing ones. This lack of action raises concerns about electrical outages and heating shortages in the future.
  3. Despite being a gas-rich state, Alaska's underproduction of new gas is leading it to a crisis point. Steps need to be taken to secure its energy supply for the upcoming years.
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It's Happening. Not good.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 6870 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Housing policy Government Regulation Social Issues Economic Impact
  1. Bills are being introduced in many states to stop corporations from owning single-family homes. This could seriously limit where families can live.
  2. There is a big need for new homes, around 15 to 20 million, but these new laws might block the creation of rental houses that could help solve the housing crisis.
  3. Many families are already struggling to find places to live, and if these bills pass, things could get even worse. It's like we're making it harder for ourselves to find good housing.

California's Insurance Crisis

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3533 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Insurance Policy Public Policy Climate Policy Economic Impact
  1. California's insurance crisis isn't mainly caused by climate change, but by how insurance rates are set. Policies like Proposition 103 prevent companies from charging enough to cover risks.
  2. Insurance rates are usually suppressed to keep costs low for consumers, which means insurance companies can struggle to stay in business. This leads to fewer companies wanting to offer home insurance in California.
  3. To fix the insurance crisis, California needs to adjust its laws to better reflect the real risks and costs of coverage. This will likely mean higher insurance rates for homeowners.

Final Tally for Biden-Era Improper Payments? $925 BILLION

OpenTheBooks Substack • 405 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government spending Policy Analysis Fraud prevention Economic Impact Bureaucracy
  1. The total amount of improper payments during Biden's presidency is reported to be $925 billion. This means a lot of money was incorrectly sent out by the government.
  2. In just one year, federal agencies noted almost $162 billion in improper payments. This issue has been growing and was particularly bad during the COVID pandemic.
  3. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services had the highest amount of waste, totaling $87 billion. Also, many payments were sent to people who have died, showing problems with tracking who should receive money.

Some Say AI Is the Greatest Invention of All Time. I Don’t Get It.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1553 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Innovation Silicon Valley Economic Impact
  1. Many people believe AI is a game-changer, but it's mainly hype and not a real solution to life's problems. AI won't solve the everyday struggles we all face.
  2. The conversation around AI often seems disconnected from reality, with exaggerated claims about its impact. Recent events, like falling stock prices for AI companies, highlight that the excitement may not match what's happening in the real world.
  3. While some powerful figures praise AI as a major invention, skepticism remains. It's important to question if AI really lives up to the lofty expectations set by its advocates.

Government Funding for R&D and Productivity Growth

New Things Under the Sun • 272 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💼 Business Economic Impact Government Policy Innovation
  1. Government funding for research and development usually offers significant returns, boosting economic growth over time. For example, for every dollar spent on R&D, there can be several dollars in economic benefits.
  2. A 1% increase in government R&D funding can lead to a noticeable rise in national productivity within a few years. Specifically, it can increase productivity by about 0.2% over the long term.
  3. Different types of R&D spending, like defense versus non-defense, can have varying impacts on productivity. Non-defense R&D tends to have a greater positive effect, meaning it’s often more beneficial to overall economic growth.

Why Did Trump Just Start a Trade War with Our Neighbors?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 746 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economic Impact Executive Power International relations
  1. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, causing concern for many. This decision appears sudden and lacks a clear reason.
  2. The tariff could disrupt the economy and long-standing trade agreements. It might lead to increased costs for consumers and harm relations with neighboring countries.
  3. While there's a limit on tariffs for Canadian energy imports to avoid spiking energy prices, the rules are inconsistent and confusing for trade with Mexico.

Fertility Decline

David Friedman’s Substack • 233 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Social Policy Public Health Government Role Economic Impact
  1. Fertility rates are dropping worldwide, even in nations that used to have high rates. This is happening due to reasons like better job opportunities for women and fewer economic benefits from having children.
  2. The decline in fertility can have mixed effects, such as less housing and resources per person, but also potential challenges in creating new ideas and technology due to fewer people contributing.
  3. To address the fertility decline, options include promoting family support or medical advancements that make having children easier, although implementing these solutions can be complicated.

NOTE TO SELF: TrumpChaos in a BREXIT Mirror

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 422 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Impact Brexit Globalization
  1. Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
  2. Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
  3. There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.

The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed

Don't Worry About the Vase • 6451 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Public Health Economic Impact
  1. Legal online sports gambling has led to a big increase in bankruptcies, suggesting financial harm to many individuals. It seems like for every $70,000 made by sportsbooks, someone files for bankruptcy.
  2. Household savings rates are declining because people are using their money for sports betting instead of investing. This trend is concerning as it can hurt long-term financial stability.
  3. There is a link between sports betting and increased domestic violence. When sports teams lose, incidents of domestic violence rise, showing the negative social impact of gambling.

PROJECT SYNDICATE DRAFT: Chaos-Monkey Trade Policy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 176 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Administration Economic Impact Government Policies
  1. The upcoming Trump II administration is expected to create harmful policies for the country. It's important to pay attention to how these policies are communicated and executed.
  2. There's a strong need for the press to scrutinize which of Trump's Twitter claims actually lead to real policy changes. This oversight is crucial to understanding the potential impact on American society.
  3. The chaotic nature of Trump's trade decisions, like fluctuating tariffs on imports, shows unpredictability in trade policy. This inconsistency can affect economic relationships with neighboring countries.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Impact Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Norway’s Wealth Tax Is Backfiring. Are Americans Paying Attention?

The Take (by Jon Miltimore) • 277 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Economic Impact Wealth Inequality Regulatory issues
  1. Norway's increased wealth tax led to many rich people leaving the country. This departure caused the government to lose significant income.
  2. The wealth tax was supposed to bring in more money, but it ended up costing the government much more than expected. The wealthy took their money elsewhere, leaving a big gap in revenue.
  3. Similar wealth tax proposals are being considered in the U.S., but if they mirror Norway's experience, they could drive wealthy individuals out of the country too.

January 2025 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Impact Inventory Analysis
  1. Home sales are still slow following the effects of Covid-19. Many people are still hesitant to buy homes right now.
  2. The number of homes for sale is high, which relates to the inventory levels seen in 2008. This suggests a potential oversupply in the market.
  3. The months of supply for homes on the market are also very high, indicating that it may take a while for the market to balance out.

Repeal the Jones Act of 1920

Don't Worry About the Vase • 3494 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Trade policy Regulatory issues National Security Economic Impact
  1. The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, restricts shipping between U.S. ports to American-built and operated ships, but it has led to a decline in U.S. shipbuilding and maritime trade. After a century, the country ships very little between its own ports, resulting in higher prices for consumers.
  2. Repealing the Jones Act could significantly reduce shipping costs, increase trade, and boost the economy. It would create more jobs and provide essential supplies more efficiently during emergencies, which often cannot be met due to current shipping constraints.
  3. Opponents of the Jones Act argue that it protects a limited number of jobs at the expense of overall economic growth. They believe that allowing competition from foreign ships would enhance the maritime industry and lead to better outcomes for consumers and the economy as a whole.

✨ The Age of AI: Will 2025 be our last normal year?

Faster, Please! • 1279 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Innovation Forecasting Economic Impact Automation
  1. AI technology is rapidly evolving, and some predict it could change our everyday lives significantly by 2025. If this happens, what we consider 'normal' now might no longer exist.
  2. Recent advances in AI, like OpenAI's new model, have made experts rethink how soon we might see 'strong' AI that can perform complex tasks like humans. This raises important questions about the future of work and society.
  3. Despite the excitement around AI, not all experts believe we are close to seeing a major economic boom from it. Predictions about technology can be tricky, and history shows change can take a long time.

The Midwest Tragedy: Canton

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Impact Market Trends
  1. The Midwest, especially cities like Canton, has been greatly affected by housing market policies since 2008. Many areas still struggle due to lack of affordable homes and stagnant population growth.
  2. Even with some recent construction in places like Canton, there is still a significant shortage of housing. Local governments often react negatively to changes, which complicates the situation.
  3. Housing issues are not just local but affect wider regions like the Northeast. Poor housing policies can lead to long-term suffering for communities and create a cycle that's hard to break.

Biden should IGNORE the debt ceiling: Don't declare an X-date. Keep paying the bills. Don't default.

Robert Reich • 27025 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt Ceiling Biden administration Legal Challenges Economic Impact
  1. Debt ceiling standoffs have a long history and often involve high national debts from tax cuts.
  2. Treasury secretaries resort to extreme measures to keep paying bills during debt ceiling conflicts.
  3. Biden should continue paying bills, avoid declaring an 'X-date' or defaulting, despite escalating demands.

Trade War? Tariffs? How A Trump Election Would Change Tech

Big Technology • 2752 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Elections Global Trade Economic Impact
  1. Global trade is super important for tech companies like Apple and those in semiconductors. If trade gets disrupted, it could lead to higher prices and inflation.
  2. Donald Trump's potential election could lead to drastic changes in global trade, including high tariffs on imports. This could reshape the landscape for many tech businesses.
  3. With Trump's focus on tariffs, global trade issues might become the main concern for the tech industry instead of social media or other topics that dominated past elections.

& We Are Live Over at the "Milken Review", with: Chickens Coming Home to Roost?: The Perils of Deglobalization

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 276 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Globalization Trade policy International relations Economic Impact
  1. Countries are starting to use their market power for political reasons, which can hurt globalization. This means that economic decisions are becoming more political.
  2. The level of globalization has been changing a lot, and even though it dipped during the pandemic, it has started to recover. Still, many people are concerned about the risks of deglobalization.
  3. Reducing global connections might lead to higher prices and less innovation. The goal now seems to be working with other countries while being careful about becoming too dependent.

Scale Ruins Everything

Cold Water • 19 implied HN points • 30 Sep 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Trends Economic Impact Corporate Responsibility
  1. Venture capital funding has led to many startups chasing rapid growth, even if their ideas could harm society. This can create big problems as companies scale up without considering the impact.
  2. Most startups fail, but VCs invest in many hoping to find a few successful ones. This pressure for growth can push companies to make decisions that negatively affect their communities.
  3. Founders should think about how their ideas might lead to negative outcomes at scale. It's important to consider whether every idea needs to become a billion-dollar business and what that means for society.

Breaking The Iron Triangle of Elite Hate

Welcome to Absurdistan • 6132 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Government Protests Economic Impact Media influence International relations
  1. Canada's Liberal Party, in power for a century, is projected to lose to Conservatives.
  2. The government funded NGO, CAHN, was found to drive bureaucratic action by labelling opposition as hate.
  3. Trudeau's invocation of the Emergencies Act based on fabricated intelligence led to backlash against his leadership.

The Killing of Brian Thompson

The Chris Hedges Report • 719 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health Policy Insurance Economic Impact Corporate Accountability Public Health
  1. The CEO of UnitedHealthcare, Brian Thompson, was recently killed, sparking questions about possible motives related to healthcare policies and insurance denials.
  2. In the U.S., healthcare spending is highest among wealthy countries, but health outcomes are among the worst, with many people facing financial ruin due to medical bills.
  3. The business practices of health insurance companies are criticized for prioritizing profits over patient care, which can lead to unnecessary suffering and death.

The Aenean Challenge

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 4004 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy crisis Economic Impact
  1. Our current energy sources are running low. Most of the energy we use today comes from fossil fuels, and they will run out in a few decades if we don't find new sources.
  2. Rare earth metals are essential for modern technology, but we have limited supplies, and most come from only a few countries. This makes our reliance on them risky.
  3. Water is becoming scarcer, especially for agriculture, which uses most of it. Finding solutions like desalination will require a lot of energy, but we are already facing energy limitations.

💊💉 Will the anti-obesity wonder drugs work wonders for the US economy?

Faster, Please! • 1553 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Healthcare Economic Impact Pharmaceuticals Obesity Chronic diseases
  1. GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy could change the way we treat obesity and have a huge positive impact on health. They work by helping individuals lose weight and may also lower the risk of serious diseases like diabetes and Alzheimer's.
  2. These medications could boost the US economy significantly. Estimates suggest that by improving health and productivity, they might help increase the GDP by about 0.5 to 1 percent in rich countries.
  3. The overall benefits of health innovations, including GLP-1 drugs, aren't fully captured in traditional economic measures. They can lead to a better quality of life and longer life expectancy, which is valuable beyond just the numbers.

Focusing on Healthcare’s Administrative Costs Is Misguided

Cremieux Recueil • 610 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Healthcare Reform Policy Analysis Economic Impact Public Health
  1. The idea that administrative costs in healthcare are the main issue is often wrong. Many studies show the key costs come from provider payments, not just administration.
  2. Comparing U.S. administrative spending to other countries shows Americans spend similar percentages on administration, but overall higher costs are mostly due to higher payments to healthcare providers.
  3. Improving how healthcare is managed, especially through better corporate governance, can help reduce administrative costs, but we need broader reforms to really lower healthcare prices.

Tariffs are coming

Noahpinion • 8588 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Tariffs Economic Impact
  1. Tariffs are likely to be a significant tool in the upcoming global trade war, but may not be the most effective solution
  2. China is responding to its economic slowdown by heavily investing in export manufacturing, potentially flooding global markets with cheap goods
  3. The threat of tariffs against Chinese exports is prompting various countries and trade entities to consider imposing their own tariffs, leading to a potential widespread increase in trade barriers

Earnings, capex, and models, oh my!

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Earnings Investments Tech industry Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. Microsoft is doing well with cloud services and AI, showing growth and strong investments to meet demand.
  2. Meta is balancing costs well while investing in AI, which is helping them maintain profitability despite other losses.
  3. Tesla is focusing on long-term growth with self-driving technology and new robotics, which some investors find promising despite slow car sales.

Balsa Research 2024 Update

Don't Worry About the Vase • 537 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Reform Nonprofits Economic Impact Research Studies Legislation
  1. Balsa Research is focused on repealing the Jones Act, a law that affects American shipping. They believe small investments can lead to big economic benefits.
  2. In 2024, Balsa funded academic studies to gather new data on the Jones Act's impacts. They're looking to use this evidence to push for policy changes in 2025.
  3. The organization plans to expand its research and develop specific policy proposals that address stakeholder concerns. They are also open to partnerships and more funding to help with their mission.

NOTES: Reckoning with Post-Columbus Empires

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💾 History Colonialism Cultural Exchange Economic Impact
  1. Empires are built on conquest and exploitation, but they can also lead to positive effects like cultural exchange and technological progress. It’s important to recognize both the harm and the unintended benefits.
  2. The legacy of colonialism often leads to a complex view where the loss of local power is weighed against advances in trade, technology, and cultural contact. Understanding this balance is key.
  3. When reflecting on imperial history, it's essential to consider the wider impacts on society rather than just focusing on the actions of the conquerors. This broader perspective helps us see the mixed legacy of empires.

The Rise and Fall of the Mail-Order Home

Construction Physics • 12735 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💾 History American history Economic Impact
  1. In the early 20th century, mail-order homes became popular due to factors like railroad expansion and availability of goods in catalogs.
  2. Mail-order homes were not only limited to houses; they also included gas stations and barns.
  3. The fall of mail-order homes was attributed to competition from other building methods and advancements in construction technology.

Do We Need Sports Betting to Get to Mars? Maybe

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2340 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Debate Government Regulation Personal freedom Economic Impact Cultural values
  1. Sports betting is a hot topic right now, with some saying it harms society. But people should have the freedom to spend their money how they want, as long as they understand the risks.
  2. Banning things just because they might be bad can lead to more restrictions on our freedoms. If we start with sports betting, what's next? Watching sports?
  3. Allowing sports betting could actually help us learn more about other areas, like political betting. It's important to protect individual choices even if some people make poor decisions.

The Obvious-Once-You-Think-About-It Reason Why Education Cuts Fertility

Bet On It • 659 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🚌 Education Higher education Social norms Economic Impact
  1. As education levels increase, people tend to have fewer children. This trend is seen in both individuals and countries.
  2. One reason for this is that students often want to finish their education before starting a family, leading to later parenthood.
  3. Education changes what people prioritize in life, making career success more important than having kids early.

⚠ How disruptive would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan be?

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Strategy Economic Impact Government Policy
  1. An invasion of Taiwan by China could disrupt global stability and economic growth. It might create fear and uncertainty, much like we saw in past wars.
  2. There's concern that the potential conflict could end the current positive economic trends we are experiencing, especially with advancements in technology and AI.
  3. Different possible scenarios of military action by China have been analyzed, showing various levels of impact on the economy. Understanding these scenarios can help us prepare for the future.

Predictable Chaos: Trump’s Tariffs and the Fragility of Global Supply Chains

Gad’s Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Trade policy Supply Chain Economic Impact Corporate strategy Market Analysis
  1. Tariffs can hurt both businesses and consumers by increasing costs, leading to higher prices for goods. Companies that depend on global supply chains may struggle to adapt to these changes.
  2. Supply chains are fragile and can get disrupted easily. When one part faces issues, it can affect the entire chain, leading to bigger economic problems.
  3. Flexibility in supply chains is important. Businesses need to have options for different suppliers and production routes to handle unexpected changes and avoid significant losses.