CalculatedRisk Newsletter β’ 19 implied HN points β’ 12 Feb 26
- Mortgage delinquencies rose in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a 4.26% rate, up about 27 basis points from the prior quarter and roughly 28 basis points yearβoverβyear, while foreclosure starts held at 0.20%.
- Delinquencies increased across conventional, FHA, and VA loans, with FHA showing the biggest deterioration β about 11.52% delinquent and a notable jump in 90+ day delinquencies and foreclosure inventory.
- The rise appears linked to the expiration of pandemic-era FHA relief and uneven labor market conditions, and newer loan cohorts (2022β23) are struggling more than 2020β21 vintages, though improving FHA originations and moderating rates could help ease stress.