The hottest Debt Substack posts right now

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Media Notes

The Lens • 982 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Debt
  1. Stephanie Kelton discusses alternative ways to handle inflationary pressures globally
  2. Central banks turning to rate hikes may not be the most effective solution for managing inflation
  3. Raising interest rates can have unintended consequences and may not always lead to desired outcomes

💥Lender on Lender Violence is Back! And on Steroids. Part III.💥

PETITION • 1002 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Investing Restructuring Debt Economy
  1. The article discusses recent bankruptcy cases involving companies like Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc. and Instant Brands Acquisition Holdings Inc.
  2. The bankruptcy cases highlighted the complex interactions between lenders and debtors, showcasing the challenges and strategies involved in negotiations.
  3. Key themes in the cases include asset stripping, liability management, regulatory approval challenges, and the role of different parties in bankruptcy proceedings.

Genesis Wins Court Ruling to Sell Tranche of GBTC Shares

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 432 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Legal Market Investment Debt
  1. Genesis won a court ruling to sell millions of GBTC shares, aiming to reimburse creditors and stabilize Bitcoin's price.
  2. A large sale of GBTC triggered a market decline for both GBTC and Bitcoin in the past, causing concerns within the Bitcoin community.
  3. Despite legal disputes and setbacks, Genesis is moving forward with plans to sell GBTC to settle debts, potentially impacting Bitcoin's valuation.

The debt explosion: How neoliberalism fuels debt crises

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Debt Neoliberalism Economy Commercial Real Estate Banking
  1. Debt has surged globally due to neoliberal economics, leading to countless crises.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions focus on bailing out the financial sector, even when it doesn't benefit the economy at large.
  3. The US economy is heavily dominated by finance, insurance, real estate, military, pharma, and tech sectors, all characterized by high levels of monopoly and rent-seeking behaviors.

bankruptcy for the little people

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 294 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Debt Legal system Corporations
  1. Bankruptcy rules differ for individuals and corporations, with implications for creditors and stakeholders.
  2. Bankruptcy can have significant economic consequences, especially for employees, suppliers, and other parties dependent on the company's operations.
  3. Some companies without operations can exploit bankruptcy laws to avoid liabilities, highlighting issues with the limited liability system.

Second Thomas Shoal approaching a crisis?; Wang Yi to visit the US; Spy games intensify; Real estate, debt and stock market support; Malaise

Sinocism • 923 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Crisis Real Estate Debt Stock Market
  1. PRC ships rammed Philippine vessels in South China Sea, escalation of crisis at Second Thomas Shoal
  2. Wang Yi visiting US, part of effort to have Xi Jinping attend APEC in San Francisco and meet with Biden
  3. Intensifying spy war between US and China, with recent revelations of alleged US spies and Five Eyes discussing threats from China

Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Debt Housing Market
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

Is neoliberalism really dead? Or does it live on like a zombie?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 318 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Neoliberalism Debt Monopolies Globalization Cold War
  1. Neoliberalism continues to evolve and adapt, with different variations over the decades.
  2. Debt has played a significant role in the rise of neoliberalism, with exponential growth especially in the neoliberal era.
  3. The current global dynamics reflect a new Cold War, where neoliberalism faces off against alternative economic models represented by countries like China and Russia.

Spatial vs Temporal Externalities

Maximum Progress • 412 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💼 Business Government intervention Externalities Debt Climate change
  1. Government intervention is effective in correcting externalities because it has a stake in the outcome.
  2. Governments struggle to address long-term externalities because they focus on short-term goals and lack incentives for future outcomes.
  3. Markets can incentivize individuals to consider future consequences, making them potentially more effective than governments in addressing temporal externalities.

The Monetary Event Horizon

The Dollar Endgame • 938 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Economy Government Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. national debt is skyrocketing due to increased government spending, tax cuts, and economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a staggering $32.47 trillion in debt and a rapid increase of over $1 trillion in just 34 days.
  2. As the U.S. debt continues to grow, the country is possibly entering a debt spiral where borrowing becomes necessary to fulfill existing financial obligations, potentially leading to an annual interest payment of $1.6 trillion at a 5% rate and putting the nation at risk of financial instability.
  3. Rising interest rates and debt levels could push the U.S. Treasury towards insolvency, with potential consequences including inflation and the need for severe fiscal austerity measures to mitigate the crisis, a situation further complicated by complex economic feedback loops.

The US national debt reached $34.5 trillion, an all-time record, but does it actually matter?

Global Markets Investor • 39 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Economy Investments Taxes Monetary Policy
  1. The US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days since June. This high level of debt poses challenges for the government and future generations.
  2. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 123.7%, near the all-time high. A high ratio decreases a country's ability to pay back debts and could lead to default or inflation-adjusted losses for investors.
  3. A country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 130% historically has a high probability of default. High debt levels can limit future investments, impact economic growth, and reduce flexibility in responding to crises.

L'ONDA D'URTO

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Market Analysis Monetary System
  1. Markets react impulsively to news, creating a sudden impact with amplified effects.
  2. The current economic system relies on debt-based currencies, leading to a continuous cycle of increasing debt and the need for new debts to pay off old ones.
  3. Observing unstable curves in economic indicators may indicate a system approaching a critical phase.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Economics Banking Debt Monetary Policy
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

China Crumbles

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 16 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics China Economy Debt Real Estate Banks
  1. China's real estate market is facing significant challenges, with existing home prices dropping and outstanding property loans declining.
  2. Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are struggling with debt obligations and bankruptcy proceedings.
  3. Moody's downgrade of China's credit outlook indicates that the turmoil in the real estate sector is starting to impact the broader economy and banks.

3 Ways out of our "Fiscal Death Spiral."

cryptoeconomy • 707 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Taxation Government spending Economy
  1. There are 3 ways to escape the fiscal crisis: reduce spending, raise taxes heavily, or resort to printing more money.
  2. The increasing debt and interest payments are approaching unsustainable levels, potentially leading to historic inflation rates.
  3. Regardless of the chosen path, the final destination seems to be inflation as the most likely outcome of the fiscal crisis.

$1 Trillion Per 100 Days: Is This the Year the Debt Bubble Explodes?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Government spending Federal Reserve Economic Growth National Debt
  1. The national debt is growing at an alarming rate, projected to reach $54 trillion within 10 years, with interest payments set to exceed defense spending.
  2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is criticized for contributing to unsustainable debt, with 2020 alone seeing over $3 trillion in printing.
  3. Government spending continues to mask weaknesses in the US economy, with debt growth outpacing GDP growth for multiple quarters, driven by reckless deficit spending.

Edging Armageddon

The Dollar Endgame • 758 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Economics Finance Debt Legislation
  1. The debt ceiling is a legal cap on how much money the US government can borrow to pay for its expenses. It's a self-imposed limit to control borrowing.
  2. A US debt default would have severe global consequences like loss of confidence in US financial stability, spike in interest rates, and turmoil in financial markets.
  3. The recent debt limit deal promises two years of complete debt limit suspension until 2025, new spending caps, and potential removal of budgetary limits on government spending post-2025.

01/30/24 - The entirety of Ukraine, working its ass off in total war for over a year, cannot match up to even Evergrande as a single company.

Moly’s Substack • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy Debt Employment Real Estate Finance
  1. Even the entirety of Ukraine in total war for over a year cannot match the debt of just a single company like Evergrande.
  2. Jobs like sorting packages and working in a production line can be extremely exhausting and pay very little.
  3. The debt of Evergrande alone is larger than the debt of the entirety of Ukraine, along with many other real estate companies combined.

Layered Money

The Dollar Endgame • 159 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Debt
  1. Understanding how the financial system operates in layers is crucial for designing an efficient monetary system.
  2. The modern financial system operates with different layers, each offering scaling solutions and varying levels of security, transparency, and operability.
  3. The layers of the financial system include the base layer with systems like FedWire, a layer for deposits, and a top layer for debt, all serving different needs of users in the economy.

The Tale of Two Chinas

The Last Bear Standing • 60 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Policy Debt Investment
  1. China's economic growth was heavily reliant on property development and infrastructure, funded by the massive expansion of credit.
  2. The shift in Chinese government policy towards reforming the property sector and debt markets led to a significant impact on the economy.
  3. The Chinese financial system faced the risk of a crisis due to the extensive exposure to property debt and potential credit losses.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Debt Inflation Government
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

America Can't Afford Bidenomics

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Debt Politics Government
  1. Many Americans are not optimistic about the economy under Bidenomics, with challenges such as declining real wages and increasing part-time employment
  2. Bidenomics relies on Keynesian policies involving significant deficit spending, contributing to a ballooning national debt and potentially harmful economic impacts
  3. There's a call for a fiscal rule to limit government spending based on population growth and inflation, along with reducing the Fed's balance sheet to promote a more sustainable fiscal and monetary direction