The Future, Now and Then

The Future, Now and Then Substack explores the intersection of historical digital futures, contemporary tech culture, political discourse, and the ethical challenges surrounding emerging technologies and platform moderation. It critically examines techno-optimism, the implications of AI, the creator economy, and reflects on the socio-political dimensions of technology.

Digital Culture and History Political Communication Strategies Technology and Society Ethics in Technology AI and Machine Learning Tech Industry Critique Moderation and Platform Policies Future Predictions and Speculations Creator Economy Social Media Dynamics

The hottest Substack posts of The Future, Now and Then

And their main takeaways

The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

110 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Speculation Economic Theory Venture Capital
  1. Silicon Valley's success relies on three types of money: government contracts, product revenues, and speculative investments. Each plays a different role in funding and shaping tech companies.
  2. Many tech stocks are driven by 'vibes' rather than actual profits. This means their value can fluctuate wildly based on investor sentiment instead of real financial performance.
  3. When speculative finance overshadows the real production of goods and services, it can lead to an unstable economy. Companies need a balance of funding sources to grow healthily and sustainably.

The Tech Barons have a blueprint drawn in crayon. They have not thought any of this through.

471 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Blockchain Cryptocurrency Innovation Internet Governance
  1. The concept of a 'network state' is about online communities using blockchain to create their own governments, but it seems unrealistic and poorly thought out.
  2. Balaji Srinivasan, the author, doesn't fully understand what a government should do or the difference between communities and states, focusing instead on tech and crypto ideas.
  3. Despite the book's flaws, it's important to recognize that wealthy tech leaders are taking these ideas seriously, which could pose real risks to society.

Things are going even worse than I expected

345 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Regulation Political theory Civil Rights
  1. Elon Musk has taken significant control over the U.S. government, causing concern among observers. His style of leadership resembles how he managed Twitter, which raises questions about legality and governance.
  2. The ability to rebuild and enforce government regulations takes time, and the current situation is making it harder for progressives to succeed. There’s a sense of lost potential for positive change.
  3. Many people feel a sense of mourning for the futures that now seem impossible. Plans and hopes for progress that once existed are now gone, and it leaves a feeling of disappointment.

Bullet Points: Everything is Collapsing Edition

195 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Social movements Media influence Government Accountability
  1. Elon Musk's management of Twitter, now called X, has not gone well. Despite some people still supporting his approach, many see that things have clearly gotten worse since he took over.
  2. Activist strategies need to adapt to a changing political landscape where media and social platforms wield less influence than before. This means finding new ways to create impactful confrontations and inspire collective action.
  3. Curtis Yarvin may not have as much real influence as some believe. His popularity among certain powerful people reflects their own views more than it indicates he is shaping political direction.

Someone Else's Problem

541 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Accountability Election interference Government Response Historical context
  1. Powerful people often avoid taking responsibility, hoping someone else will deal with tough issues. This leads to inaction during critical moments, like after the January 6th attack.
  2. Many leaders recognized the seriousness of the January 6th events but chose to prioritize their personal interests instead. They believed it was easier to ignore the problem than to confront it directly.
  3. The consequences of neglecting urgent issues can impact everyone. When leaders pass the buck, the problems become bigger and harder for society to address in the future.
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Bitcoin is worth $100,000. It still doesn't have a single legitimate use case

515 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Speculation Investment Regulation Market Trends
  1. Bitcoin is currently priced at $100,000, but it doesn't have any real-world use that justifies that value. It's mainly driven by speculation.
  2. The recent price increase is largely due to wealthy investors betting on Bitcoin, rather than any fundamental economic demand or function.
  3. The cryptocurrency market is being influenced by big players and political backing, making it more about speculation rather than actual utility.

Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to free speech is as deep as Exxon's commitment to clean energy

198 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political speech Social media Content Moderation Political Influence Corporate Responsibility
  1. Meta's commitment to free speech and content moderation is often temporary and depends on political convenience. They respond to crises when pressured but quickly revert to leniency when the heat is off.
  2. Zuckerberg's recent shift in moderation policies suggests a move towards cheaper, less effective community-driven solutions instead of rigorous fact-checking, potentially increasing harm towards marginalized groups.
  3. There's a growing debate about whether big tech companies deserve special treatment from the government, with some arguing that they should follow the same rules as everyone else despite their influence.

What the future looks like from here.

770 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Elections Governance Political parties Public Policy
  1. Trumpism is not going to last forever, but it will cause a lot of pain for people and will take a long time to recover from.
  2. The future looks bleak for everyday people. We could see less government protection and more power for the wealthy, leading to issues in health care, justice, and the environment.
  3. Even though it seems tough right now, there's hope that one day society can rebuild and move past Trumpism, since authoritarianism has its weaknesses too.

UNCOUTH.

301 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Discourse Government Accountability Election Integrity Public Perception
  1. Hunter Biden's situation shows how the media and political elites often care more about appearances than actual justice. His prison time and pardon seem to reflect more on his family name than the crimes he committed.
  2. The response to Joe Biden pardoning his son highlights how elites prioritize maintaining social order and propriety over accountability. There's a certain way presidents are expected to behave, which can shield them from criticism.
  3. Democracy works best when there's a balance between the elites and the public. However, current actions by political and media figures often miss the opportunity to question or resist power, favoring stability instead.

Weighing in on Casey Newton's "AI is fake and sucks" debate

237 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Skepticism Innovation Criticism Tech Ethics
  1. AI is real, but there's a lot of hype around it. It's important to be skeptical and not just believe everything that's promised.
  2. Critics of AI might have valid concerns even if they sometimes say things that sound extreme. Their worries come from seeing the tech's limitations and potential dangers.
  3. When tech leaders make big promises about AI, we should be cautious. Just because some progress has been made doesn't mean all their predictions will come true.

Bullet Points: 2025 is going great so far

121 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Social media Content creation
  1. An explosion of a Cybertruck in Las Vegas might symbolize the wild unpredictability of 2025. It reflects how many unexpected and chaotic events define the year.
  2. Meta is trying to push AI chatbots that seem out of touch with what people actually want. This decision raises questions about the company's direction and understanding of its users.
  3. A recent debate about Elon Musk's management of Twitter showed how polarized opinions can be. Many arguments are rooted in personal biases, rather than objective analysis of the impacts.

Bluesky as the Ship of Theseus

291 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Social media Digital Culture User Experience Online Communities Platform Development
  1. Bluesky is gaining popularity as an alternative to Twitter, attracting users unhappy with changes in X under Elon Musk. It's becoming a new hub for online conversations.
  2. The platform aims for a more user-friendly experience by limiting algorithms and promoting straightforward feeds. This makes it feel like the early days of Twitter.
  3. Bluesky focuses on community and real interactions, reducing toxic behavior from users aiming for outrage. This change may result in lower engagement metrics, but leads to a better overall environment.

The Future, Now and Then: 2024 in review

72 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Political Commentary Media Critique Social media Current Events
  1. The author has been regularly writing a newsletter for two and a half years, and their audience has grown significantly. It's important to celebrate growth and consistency in writing.
  2. In 2024, topics covered included technology and political commentary, highlighting issues like the rise of Bluesky and criticism of university administrations. These topics engage readers and reflect current events.
  3. The author plans to shift focus in early 2025 to finish a book manuscript, but will still share thoughts on current events in the newsletter. Transitioning goals can bring new opportunities in writing.

Charting the path forward: Some things that won't work anymore, and a few that might.

185 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Political strategy Legislation Civil Rights
  1. There are different possible futures with Trump's second term, ranging from merely bad to much worse. It's important to be aware of both outcomes and prepare accordingly.
  2. Strategies that worked against Trump in his first term may not be effective this time due to stronger control over institutions and a reduced attack surface.
  3. It's essential to focus on building resistance in blue states, highlighting the infighting in Trump's administration, and protecting vulnerable groups while playing the long game.

Don't expect the tech platforms to help us this time.

162 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Government Regulation Media influence Election Dynamics Tech Companies
  1. Tech platforms like Facebook and Google may not help protect democracy like they did in the past. They're more focused on their own interests now.
  2. The government can't be relied on to regulate these platforms effectively for a long time. Rebuilding proper regulation will take years or even decades.
  3. Expect tougher times ahead as the political landscape changes. The courts, media, and tech platforms that were once allies may not be as supportive this time around.

"One Weird Trick" for effective strategic political communication campaigns

283 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Communication Campaigns Policies Content Moderation Ideology
  1. Frame your communication as reasonable and your opponents as ridiculous to win in political campaigns.
  2. Effective communication matters most when your opponents are vulnerable and the issue stays on people's minds.
  3. Recognize when you're in a bad position and retreat before causing more damage to your organization.

Bullet Points: OpenAI looks for its FarmVille, 90s tech nostalgia, and more on the Substack drama

275 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Nostalgia Media Content Moderation Platform
  1. OpenAI is aiming to become a platform similar to how Facebook invited developers for apps.
  2. Nostalgia for 90s tech optimism is prevalent but may not be constructive for the present tech landscape.
  3. The Substack management issues are conflicting with their core value of empowering writers to build their own audience.

The myth of technological inevitability

229 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Science Ethics Innovation Policy Artificial Intelligence
  1. Technological change is perceived as inevitable and can happen in regulated or new industries.
  2. The concept of heroic scientists driving innovation is unrealistic and scientific progress is a slow, collaborative process.
  3. The public sector plays a significant role in shaping the direction of scientific progress and technological advancement, impacting the pace and outcomes.

The Gravitational Force of Tech Money

167 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Tech Wealth Economy Capital Finance
  1. Gravitational impact of money increases with scale, where extreme wealth creates societal problems beyond personal purchasing power.
  2. Tech billionaires accumulating astronomical sums of money have industry-warping and societal impacts, shaping the future and institutions.
  3. The concentration of vast capital in the hands of a few leads to comical ineptitude and problems society struggles to address, highlighting flaws in the tax system.

Paul Graham, proto-techbro.

152 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Tech History Finance Literature Media
  1. Paul Graham's 2004 essay showcases Silicon Valley culture before the emergence of techbros.
  2. The cultural shift in Silicon Valley was influenced by migration waves from the financial industry in the 90s and after the 2008 global financial crisis.
  3. Tech culture has evolved to value charisma and charm over traditional intelligence, as seen in YCombinator's focus on popularity and connections.

The chroniclers of the crypto collapse

175 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
💰 Finance Crypto Books Journalism Scandal Investigation
  1. Authors faced with unexpected events can choose to adjust their approach or stay true to their original vision.
  2. Different writers responded differently to the changing fortunes in the blockchain world, resulting in varied books.
  3. Michael Lewis' book about the crypto collapse did not adapt to the unfolding events and may eventually be forgotten.

The State of the Union, and the shape of the Presidential race

110 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Campaign Strategy Media Coverage Supreme Court
  1. Biden's State of the Union speech signaled his reelection message and the upcoming Presidential race is expected to be extremely close.
  2. Biden effectively contrasted his record with Trump's, using past actions to his advantage.
  3. Media coverage may continue to focus on Biden's age, but the expectations set for him allow him to surpass them, while Trump's campaign quality may work to Biden's benefit due to Trump's past incompetence.

Old Gambler Yells at Clouds

113 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Gambling Sports Poker Regulation Society
  1. The gambling economy was better off when it was shady and inaccessible.
  2. Legalizing and barely regulating sports betting has led to excessive gambling and exploitation.
  3. Regulating vice is only beneficial if accompanied by serious regulation to avoid negative consequences.

Dumb Money Squared

113 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Retail Investors Private Equity
  1. Different generations have their own moments of 'we're democratizing finance'
  2. Retail traders bring more money into the stock-gambling market under the guise of democratizing finance
  3. Be cautious of celebrating retail traders' victories as they may inadvertently strengthen the financial system over time

Bullet Points: On Bluesky, the Vision Pro Jackpot, and the Quiet Period before the Election

105 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Social media Elections Billionaires
  1. BlueSky, a new platform similar to Twitter, has opened to the public, focusing on community-building and content moderation through decentralization.
  2. The Apple Vision Pro headset's purpose in today's world is unclear, but it may find relevance in a future shaped by climate crises and technological advancements.
  3. The 2024 Presidential election cycle hasn't truly kicked off yet, indicating that the media coverage may be premature and not fully indicative of the final outcome.

Read Write Own, Reviewed

92 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Blockchain Web3 Cryptocurrency Venture Capital Internet
  1. Chris Dixon's book 'Read Write Own' discusses the impact of blockchain technology, but fails to address the potential downsides of Web3 projects and the financial risks involved.
  2. Dixon's vision for Web3 revolves around tokenomics and a future where everyone is an owner and investor, which can lead to increased financial precarity and reliance on speculative investments.
  3. The book highlights Dixon's overconfidence in blockchain technology, lack of detailed understanding of technical aspects, and his past involvement in hyped NFT and play-to-earn ventures, casting doubt on his ability to provide a realistic and innovative vision for the future of the internet.

A reply to Noah Smith: tech optimism vs tech pragmatism, cont'd

149 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Regulation Innovation
  1. Noah Smith discusses different types of techno-optimism and highlights the importance of choosing the right policies for innovation.
  2. Being a tech pragmatist involves actively promoting beneficial policies or questioning potential negative impacts of technology.
  3. Tech optimism as a political project can aim to benefit certain classes while ignoring democratic accountability.

We should all be Luddites now

154 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
🎭️ Culture History Technology Labor Criticism Rebellion
  1. The Luddite rebellion was about labor power and resistance to technology that would harm workers.
  2. Legitimate pathways for voicing resistance being limited can lead people to embrace illegitimate tactics for change.
  3. Being a modern-day Luddite means advocating for fair distribution of wealth and power in the digital future.

Notes from #WIRED30

85 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Futurism AI Internet Tech Culture Digital Media
  1. Tech's center of gravity has shifted in the past 30 years in Silicon Valley, futurism, and WIRED.
  2. Tim Berners-Lee's effort to give users control over data faces challenges from established tech giants.
  3. WIRED is drawing boundary lines around the AI debate, embracing diverse perspectives and urging attention to the limitations of large language models.

The Two Bets

113 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
🎭️ Culture Technology History Environment Politics Literature
  1. Two bets from the past illustrate contrasting viewpoints on the trajectory of society.
  2. The outcome of these bets reveals the complexities of predicting future trends.
  3. The tension between techno-optimism and environmental concerns continues to shape societal narratives.

90's tech culture was a jumbled mess

100 implied HN points • 12 Aug 23
🕹 Technology History Tech Culture
  1. WIRED's 90's product reviews were aspirational marketing for an ideal 'netizen.'
  2. The tech culture mix in WIRED reviews reflected 70s counterculture and 80s yuppie culture.
  3. Consumer tech in the 90s felt the rapid changes of Moore's Law, with prices dropping and capabilities rising quickly.