The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

More info, more problems

inexactscience • 39 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. When people get more information, they often underreact instead of overreact. This means they might ignore new data instead of properly adjusting their predictions.
  2. Experiments showed that when faced with two variables, people made less accurate forecasts. Adding complexity actually made their predictions worse.
  3. Having clear instructions and understanding of the information really helps improve decision-making. If people are confused, they tend to ignore important details.

The Wile E. Coyote Illusion

The Ruffian • 276 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Economies can experience a 'Wile E. Coyote moment' where everything seems fine but is about to crash.
  2. Working-from-home (WFH) might seem productive at first, but lack of in-person interaction can lead to long-term issues.
  3. The 'Wile E. Coyote illusion' can be seen in various contexts, such as relationships, consumer markets, and AI development.

causing prosperity

bad cattitude • 165 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Welfare states are not charity; they can lead to poverty traps
  2. To create prosperity, we need pillars like property rights, scientific rationalism, modern capital markets, and effective communication systems
  3. Redistribution of wealth to alleviate poverty can actually increase absolute poverty, impacting economic growth and overall wealth
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A dive into Economy of India

Sitesh’s Substack • 2 HN points • 08 Aug 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. India's economy is growing but still has a long way to go. It currently contributes 8% to the global GDP, while having 18% of the world's population.
  2. Most of India's economic activity comes from informal sectors, making it hard to get accurate data. This leads to big challenges like high debt and low per capita income.
  3. Despite having a large population and potential for growth, India struggles with inequality and low productivity. A small part of the population contributes to most of the economic consumption.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: John F. Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor, & Kevin Warsh Are Not Professional Analysts, But Rather Republican Courtiers

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Kevin Warsh's role in politics shows how personal identity can outweigh professional expertise. He is seen more as a supporter of party lines rather than a strictly analytical voice.
  2. Several economists, like Cogan and Hubbard, are criticized for aligning their views with political agendas instead of relying on data. This raises questions about their credibility in economic discussions.
  3. The long-term decline in U.S. productivity is significant, and some economists downplay this reality. Ignoring the actual data trends can harm their reputations as credible professionals.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-22 Fr

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Real wages for non-managerial workers are growing stronger now than in the past due to a tight labor market. This growth has continued despite challenges like the pandemic and inflation.
  2. Media sources greatly influence people's opinions and political views, creating a divide in beliefs. Many Americans see their reality differently based on their news consumption.
  3. There are different kinds of populist leaders, but not all fit neatly into traditional categories. The motivations behind their actions can vary widely, affecting how they connect with their supporters.

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Mule’s Musings • 83 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Lam's performance is better than what people expected. This suggests some positive surprises in the market.
  2. Telecom is showing strong growth after a rough time. This is a sign that the industry may be recovering.
  3. Companies like TXN, LRCX, and SK Hynix are mentioned, indicating key players are having important earnings releases.

5D Money (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 226 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The world is primarily driven by emotions, politics, and economic situations rather than just intellectual ideas.
  2. Under large-scale capitalism, some assumptions about money are presented as self-evident and unquestioned.
  3. Money is ingrained in our minds from a young age, leading to dissociation and acceptance of certain monetary models.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Housing starts in May were lower than expected, at an annual rate of 1.256 million, which shows a decrease from both April and last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts went up slightly, but overall they are down from last year, while multi-family starts are doing better this year.
  3. Building permits also dropped a bit, indicating that new construction might slow down in the coming months.

Giving Thanks for Price Theory, 2025 Edition

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Costs go beyond just money. When making decisions, we should think about what we're giving up, like time or effort, not just the price tag.
  2. Efficiency is an important idea in economics. It helps us compare how resources are used, but we should recognize that it's not always about keeping things the same; sometimes we need to adapt to make improvements.
  3. Profits and losses help guide businesses. Profits show what's valued by people, while losses indicate when something isn't working well, ensuring resources are used effectively.

It's power laws all the way down

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Venture capital in the U.S. is becoming more concentrated, with a few big firms controlling most of the funds. This trend means fewer opportunities for new investors and startups.
  2. The amount of money raised by new venture capital firms has dropped significantly, reaching lows not seen since 2015. This indicates a tough environment for emerging investors.
  3. The influence of large venture firms like a16z is growing, shaping what types of startups receive funding and driving the conversation in the tech industry.

Late-Cycle Investment Theory: 10 Recent Snapshots

European Straits • 23 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. AI is making existing systems more efficient, rather than creating something entirely new. It helps industries use technology better, especially in areas that used to resist software.
  2. The push for American manufacturing jobs struggles against economic realities. Even with a desire to bring back factories, the strong dollar and global pressures make it hard to compete with countries like China.
  3. Private equity is changing its approach by buying insurance companies. This newer strategy helps them secure stable funding, but it also concentrates risks and could lead to financial problems.

Journalism needs more Taylor Swift reporters

Silver Bulletin • 232 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
📰 News Economics
  1. Journalism benefits from covering popular beats like Taylor Swift for financial reasons
  2. News organizations use a mix of light entertainment and hard news coverage to attract and retain readers
  3. Having dedicated reporters for popular figures can help news outlets financially support important investigative reporting

Critics Of Capitalism Misunderstand Economic Success

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Economic success reflects how well someone serves others, not just a personal gain. When people succeed in business, it usually means they are meeting needs in society.
  2. Critics often see successful entrepreneurs as oppressors, but this view misunderstands the nature of profit. Profit can actually indicate cooperation and mutual benefit, not exploitation.
  3. Admiring economic success can inspire others to improve and create value, instead of fostering a sense of victimhood or grievance. A culture that values hard work and success can lead to positive outcomes for everyone.

Why you'll hate my investment advice

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Understanding the basics of an investment can clarify why certain opinions might seem oversimplified or dismissive at times.
  2. It's important to recognize different perspectives in investing, as they can affect how one interprets market issues.
  3. Sharing investment strategies can help others see the reasoning behind specific choices and thought processes.

Does A Weak Yen Really Help Japan?

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. A weak yen has atrophied Japan's economic muscles as it relies on it like a crutch, impacting household income and overall economic growth negatively.
  2. Japan's export-driven growth fueled by a weak yen contrasts with Korea's growth driven by innovative products and efficiency improvements, leading to a significant difference in economic performance.
  3. The weak yen raises import prices and benefits big companies over consumers, showing how it indirectly transfers income and highlights the impact on inflation and household spending.

The state of China's small and micro companies

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Small and micro businesses are crucial for China's economy, providing services and jobs to many people. They help support bigger companies and industries in different areas.
  2. These businesses employ around 400 million people, making them essential for social stability. The livelihoods of many families depend on their success.
  3. Small and micro businesses face challenges like weak demand and high operating costs. They need better financial support and policies to thrive and stimulate the economy.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

ServiceTitan just kicked the IPO door wide open

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. ServiceTitan recently went public, and its stock price rose significantly on the first day, showing strong investor interest. This kind of IPO performance typically generates excitement in the market.
  2. The company managed to raise more money than expected, which can indicate positive investor confidence and a solid business outlook.
  3. With ServiceTitan's success, there's hope for more tech companies to follow suit and achieve similar or even greater valuations in the future.

Turns out a lot of Unreported Truths readers have been thinking a lot about AI

Unreported Truths • 29 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Many people believe AI will change our jobs and lives in the near future. A recent poll showed that 70% think it's likely.
  2. There are different kinds of risks from AI. One big worry is that AI could become aware and act against humans, while another concern is how nations might use AI in warfare.
  3. AI is already starting to disrupt white-collar jobs. Some people think this could lead to big changes in the workforce, similar to past industrial shifts.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

Rabbit Holes 🕳️ #105

Creative Destruction • 51 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. The addiction economy isn't just about things like social media; it's about all the industries that thrive on craving and dependency, which shapes our capitalism.
  2. Experiencing job loss in today's world can make work feel less meaningful, leading to a broken trust between companies and employees. People focus more on just getting paid rather than finding fulfillment.
  3. Life can't be perfectly curated or optimized; real growth comes from the messy, awkward experiences we go through. Accepting this messiness can lead to a more genuine and fulfilling life.

June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Core inflation has stayed close to the Fed's 2% target for 36 months, showing stability even as jobs have held steady.
  2. Currently, home prices are much higher than normal due to supply issues, with the average home significantly overpriced in major metro areas.
  3. Access to credit is also a big problem, lowering home prices but complicating the supply situation, making it hard for buyers.

On Carlota Perez's "Technology Revolutions and Financial Capital"

Parth's Playground • 25 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Technology goes through cycles of creation and adoption every 50 years. These cycles start with new technology being developed and then used by people, leading to big changes in society.
  2. Financial crises often happen in the middle of these cycles to clear out old ways of doing things and make space for new technologies to grow and connect with each other.
  3. Each new technology builds on past innovations, creating new opportunities. So, understanding where a technology is in its life cycle can help you know its potential and value.

EconTalking Housing Deregulation

Bet On It • 70 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🎙 Podcasts Economics
  1. The podcast discusses how housing is often too expensive due to regulations. These rules limit the building of new homes, which can drive up prices.
  2. There are ideas on how to make housing more affordable by changing or removing some of these regulations. This could help more people find homes without breaking the bank.
  3. The conversation includes insights from the book 'Build, Baby, Build,' which offers solutions for better housing development.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-20 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 53 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Watching a video about the Bel Air Fire of 1961 can give you insight into historical events and their impacts. It's important to learn from past events to understand current issues better.
  2. Insurance costs for properties are changing and it's something to keep an eye on. Rising costs can affect how we plan our finances when it comes to home and property.
  3. Subscribing to informative newsletters can lead to valuable knowledge. Engaging with these types of content can help you stay updated and informed.

The Future Is Plastics, Benjamin

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 65 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Economics
  1. Microplastics are everywhere in our bodies. They are found in blood, organs, and even in breast milk, but we still don't know how much damage they can cause.
  2. Big oil companies are pushing to make even more plastics. They see profit in plastic production despite the environmental harm it causes.
  3. Bottled water may contain a lot of small plastic pieces. Some scientists are now drinking less bottled water because of the high levels of micro and nanoplastics found in it.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-01 Fr

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Warren Buffett expanded his investment philosophy following advice from Munger, which led to adding wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices
  2. Stock pundits have faced criticism for underperformance and being influenced by popular views, impacting small and mid-capitalisation stocks
  3. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's financial stability in the face of climate change contrasts with utilities like PG&E and Hawaiian Electric facing bankruptcy

Noah Smith, I Don't Buy The Comparative Advantage Argument

Am I Stronger Yet? • 141 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Economic models based on comparative advantage may not hold in a future dominated by AI.
  2. The argument that people will always adapt to new jobs due to comparative advantage overlooks issues like lower quality work by humans compared to AI and transactional overhead.
  3. In a world with advanced AI, confident predictions based on past economic principles may not fully apply, raising questions about societal implications and the role of humans.

The Inevitable Transformation of Bali into the Instagram Capital of the World

Jay's Data Stream • 17 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
🏝 Travel Economics
  1. Bali has changed a lot over the years, attracting more tourists looking for a trendy experience. This includes co-working spaces and Instagram-worthy spots that appeal to younger travelers.
  2. The local infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the growth of tourism. Traffic is worse, and essential services, like water supply, are becoming harder to manage.
  3. While the transformation has brought wealth to Bali, it’s also unsettling for locals who may miss the simpler times. The balance between tourism and preserving the island's charm is becoming a big question.

The best reason to hate international aid

Unreported Truths • 49 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. International aid can create a dependency that hurts the receiving countries more than it helps. Instead of promoting self-sufficiency, it often makes governments rely on outside support.
  2. Foreign aid often leads to corruption, where local leaders treat it as an easy resource to exploit for their own gain. This can divert attention from genuine development efforts.
  3. Countries that focus on growing their own economies, like China, often do better than those that rely heavily on foreign aid. Sustainable development is more effective when it comes from within, rather than depending on help from others.

A Simple Framework For The Drivers of Wealth

Neckar’s Notes • 255 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Factors for increasing wealth: Create economic value, capture/control that value, apply leverage, compound capital over time.
  2. Factors for decreasing wealth: Over-consumption, charity, catastrophe, legacy.
  3. Balancing wealth: Focus on creating, capturing, and compounding wealth while avoiding over-consumption and catastrophe.