The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

How do I invest in startups

Tech Ramblings • 39 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Founders should be experts in their field. It's important that they have deep knowledge and experience to succeed.
  2. Hard work is crucial for startup founders. If they aren't responsive or dedicated, it could be a sign of problems ahead.
  3. Investing in startups with revenue is safer. It helps reduce risks and increases the chances of getting your money back.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

The Start of Inflation As We Know It

Informer • 39 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💾 History Economics
  1. In the 1930s, Keynes developed a new theory of inflation linked to the proletariat's impact on history.
  2. Economic laws are foundational and apply universally, impacting real-world situations.
  3. Changes in wage dynamics, influenced by trade unions and economic factors, played a key role in reshaping inflation patterns.

Regulation's Role in Stifling Innovation

Knowledge Problem • 39 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Regulation based on cost recovery stifles innovation by not focusing on value creation
  2. Traditional economic regulation in the electricity industry is static and not adaptive to dynamic environments
  3. Regulatory institutions need to evolve towards promoting competition and consumer information for innovation and value creation
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Productivity Gains from Generative AI

Grist Potentia • 39 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is being discussed a lot right now, with faster analysis of its economic impact compared to past tech changes.
  2. Generative AI is linked to increased productivity, though mostly based on anecdotes and personal experiences.
  3. Research by Economics Ph.D. candidates at MIT may provide more insights into the productivity gains from generative AI.

Walk in the Pines #107

Pinecone Weekly Brief • 39 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The post shares best reads, listens, and watches of the week
  2. It includes links to articles about macroeconomics, biocomputers, and podcasts
  3. The content is focused on providing diverse educational resources for subscribers

Pixels are free now

Sunday Letters • 39 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. The internet has made it much cheaper to share and create digital content, like images and music. This means more people can make and distribute their work easily.
  2. AI is reducing the time and effort needed for tasks like data analysis or creative work. What used to take weeks can now be done in hours, making things more efficient.
  3. As technology continues to evolve, we will likely rely on simple conversations with AI to create documents or applications. If it can't talk to other tools, it may soon seem outdated or 'broken'.

FAQs: Starship, Starlink, and some SpaceX-conomics

The efficient frontier • 39 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. SpaceX will price their Starship slots based on the cost of launching a Starlink satellite, creating a connection between launch prices and satellite values.
  2. Even if SpaceX's goal is to get to Mars fast, they still need profits to fund big projects and attract capital.
  3. SpaceX may aim to grow the space industry, but they will likely price Starship slots at cost plus markup, not markdown, due to market power.

Fair Price Theory

Tom Thought • 39 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Every good or service has a fair price, whether it's labor dependent on skill or a product based on cost of parts and labor.
  2. There is no definitive 'fair' price, only the market price determined by what people are willing to pay.
  3. Value of a product depends on consumer demand, not just on the labor or materials that went into it. Pay isn't determined solely by skill, but by usefulness and rarity of the skill in demand.

BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.

ONE SLIDE: Working on the Summary Review Materials for Econ 135: History of Economic Growth: The Post-1870 MEG-Economy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 61 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Most economic activity in history happened after 1870. This shows how rapidly the economy can grow in a short time.
  2. Students should have a simple, useful summary of post-1870 economic growth. This will help them during exams and in their future understanding.
  3. The summary should include both political-economic and technical aspects. It's important to see how these areas work together in shaping the economy.

A negative income tax for today’s America

Hypertext • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Repackaging the negative income tax (NIT) for today's America includes starting from the current welfare system and considering path dependency.
  2. Introducing the NIT should focus on value frameworks appealing to both progressives and conservatives, emphasizing inclusivity, accessibility, opportunity, and cost-effectiveness.
  3. Implementing the NIT in steps requires reforms that are small enough to pass legislation, improve the lives of the poor, and align with both progressive and conservative values.

Less-than-Universal Basic Income

Hypertext • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Universal Basic Income (UBI) has gained popularity, but its implementation faces challenges in terms of cost and fairness.
  2. Alternative approaches like a permanent expansion of the Child Tax Credit offer a more feasible path for large-scale cash transfers.
  3. Expanding the Child Tax Credit could address concerns about cost and fairness while still providing significant support to families in need.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

What is the Erdmann Housing Tracker?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Most posts are free, but some are paid to provide deeper insights on the housing market and investments.
  2. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps analyze home prices based on supply, credit, and cyclical factors.
  3. Paid posts often include investment ideas and trends in new home construction to help with economic decisions.

Swiggy's IPO inches closer to trading, and is the stock market dangerously overvalued?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Swiggy's IPO is almost finished and it's expected to have a very high valuation. Many people are excited about it, but there are some concerns too.
  2. The stock market might be overvalued right now, which could be risky for investors. It's important to stay informed about the market trends.
  3. There are various economic factors influencing the market, like changes in inflation and company performance. Keeping an eye on these factors can help investors make better decisions.

Will all this AI investment pay off?

How the Hell • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jun 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. There's a big debate about whether the money being spent on AI will actually lead to good returns. Some think it's like the dotcom bubble, where lots of investments were made without solid profits.
  2. For AI investments to really pay off, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) needs to be created, and it must come from the companies that investors are backing today. If it comes from new, unseen companies, current investors might not benefit.
  3. Many things need to align for investors to make money from AGI, like avoiding human extinction and ensuring that money still means something in a future shaped by AGI. The odds of everything working out perfectly are pretty low.

Why Gold At $10,000 Is Possible

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. We might be in a situation called a 'Crack-Up Boom,' where people lose faith in money and rush to buy real goods. This can lead to high inflation or even a total currency collapse.
  2. The stock market seems to be in an 'Everything Bubble,' with asset prices being higher than they should be. While some indicators suggest it's a bubble, it can still get bigger before it bursts.
  3. Investing in gold and Bitcoin is seen as a safe bet during uncertain times, and there are signs suggesting gold prices could go much higher than they are now.

The Unsustainable Economics of LLM APIs: Understanding the Coming Price Realignment

ScaleDown • 22 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. LLM API prices are currently very low because companies are competing hard for market share, not because of their actual costs. This means prices aren't stable and could change soon.
  2. There is a huge difference between the operational costs of running LLMs and what users pay now. Providers are often subsidizing costs by as much as 90%, which won't last forever.
  3. Due to expected price increases, businesses should start planning for higher AI costs in the future, and they should think about flexible AI solutions that can adapt as prices change.

All the Lonely Travelers: A Requiem for the Solo Flyer

Gad’s Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Solo travelers often pay more for flights compared to those traveling in groups, even if there's no official 'loneliness tax.' Airlines use complex pricing strategies that can charge individuals higher rates because they know they have less flexibility and urgency.
  2. Airlines are really good at using price discrimination to maximize profits. They adjust prices based on how many people are booking and when, often charging solo flyers more because they have less price sensitivity compared to groups or families that can book in advance.
  3. Traveling solo can come with hidden costs, like being unable to share expenses with others. While flying alone is liberating, it can also become less efficient and more expensive compared to flying with others.

Getting Tax Burden Wrong

David Friedman’s Substack • 152 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Who bears the burden of a tax depends on the effect of the tax on the transaction terms, not just who hands over the money.
  2. Excess burden of taxes includes costs incurred by individuals that nobody receives, even if the government doesn't collect the tax.
  3. Smith's view on taxation aims for incidence of tax burden proportional to income, not necessarily flat rate income tax.

Going Beyond Buffett

What's Important? • 46 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Warren Buffett is aging, and people are wondering who will carry on his legacy. The focus should not only be on who continues his investment success but also on who can embody his wisdom.
  2. The current market is like a fragile ecosystem dominated by familiar players. Instead of just choosing the best investments, we should be looking for more innovative and holistic approaches to business.
  3. To truly thrive in the future, businesses should embrace new, creative thinking that values quality and human experience over just profits. It's about being adaptable and aware, like a hare evading a predator, instead of a predictable stoat.

Goff on the Cost Disease

Bet On It • 140 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Prices and expenditures in medical care need to account for quality and income levels
  2. Healthcare services have improved in quality over the years, impacting prices
  3. Education has evolved into a consumption-driven industry with a demand for the 'college experience'

What are the essential things investors need to know about the regulatory landscape?

Tech + Regulation • 19 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Understanding the regulatory landscape is key for investors in startups. Companies that plan for future regulations can reduce risks and stand out from competitors.
  2. New laws in Europe are making it harder for larger companies, creating chances for smaller businesses to thrive. Startups can take advantage of these rules to grow.
  3. Investors should ask about how companies are preparing for regulations, especially if they use AI or target specific audiences like kids. Knowing the compliance strategies can help in making better investment choices.

LLM links, 2/4

In My Tribe • 136 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Children learn by sensing and manipulating objects, which is expected to influence AI development.
  2. AI alignment issues are compared to human alignment issues, showing the importance of getting along in society.
  3. There are hard resource constraints that may limit extreme AI-driven growth, highlighting the importance of understanding these limits.

The Man-Made Miracle of SpaceX

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 125 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. SpaceX follows a strategy of learning from failures to achieve success, as seen from their history with Falcon rockets.
  2. SpaceX's Starship program has promising advancements like successful stage separation, in-orbit fuel transfers, and potential for deep space missions.
  3. SpaceX's success and profitability are driven by innovations like reusable rockets and the Starlink satellite constellation, reshaping the space industry.

Iron Cage

Brain Lenses • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Economics
  1. Max Weber coined the term 'iron cage' to describe how modern humans are enclosed within capitalistic systems with strict structures.
  2. The structures of capitalism and bureaucracies have created an almost indestructible shell that governs social, relational, and resource management aspects of our lives.
  3. Many people operate within this 'iron cage' without realizing the system they are enclosed in.

The Roaring Twenties 2.0

Diane Francis • 279 implied HN points • 28 Jun 21
💼 Business Economics
  1. The economy could be on the rise again after the pandemic, similar to the Roaring Twenties after the Spanish flu. There are signs of growth and optimism like low interest rates and high productivity.
  2. Technology is advancing rapidly, especially in areas like AI and healthcare. These advancements can lead to a healthier, more productive workforce over time.
  3. While things look good now, there might be challenges ahead, like political issues or international conflicts. It's important to enjoy the current momentum while it lasts.

Beware Of When The Smoke Clears

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Markets might not rise as expected after conflicts cool down, even if it seems logical. It's important to recognize that less news doesn't always mean success.
  2. Investors often think they will benefit when uncertainty decreases, but this could backfire. The reality can be different when the expected clarity arrives.
  3. The idea of a 'peace dividend' might be a trap; selling or getting out could be more common than investment growth after the news settles.

Who Will Be the Japan of the AI Era?

European Straits • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Countries or regions that can best adapt their institutions to support AI technology will be the leaders in the AI era, similar to how Japan led in manufacturing with its innovative practices.
  2. Lean production showcased that the real breakthroughs come from rethinking how to organize and manage work rather than solely relying on new technologies. AI has the potential to do the same in knowledge work today.
  3. Successful integration of AI will require cooperation across entire supply chains, not just within individual companies, similar to how Japanese companies thrived through partnerships and collaboration.

Gift Economies

David Friedman’s Substack • 161 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Gift economies are systems of exchange based on reciprocity and social obligation without explicit contracts.
  2. Gift economies can take various forms, like providing services without monetary compensation but receiving status or recognition as a reward.
  3. In gift economies, transactions are based on gifts rather than explicit trades, creating a different dynamic of value exchange.

Fear Sells

Diane Francis • 259 implied HN points • 19 Jul 21
💼 Business Economics
  1. Fear triggers strong emotions in people, leading them to react quickly without thinking. This is why the media often uses fear to get attention and sell stories.
  2. There is a growing market for products and services that cater to people's fears, like panic rooms and survival bunkers. Companies are making money off people's anxiety about safety and the future.
  3. Instead of relying on expensive fear-based solutions, people can better manage their anxiety by focusing on the present, identifying stress triggers, and taking simple steps like breathing exercises.

The "be funny" experiment continues

Sex and the State • 13 implied HN points • 15 Aug 25
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. It's important to have fun with your work instead of grinding hard all the time. Finding joy can actually help you succeed.
  2. Making money doing what you love can be tough, especially when it's work that benefits society. It's frustrating that some easy money-making options seem less valuable.
  3. Rest and relaxation can feel irresponsible when you're not making enough money. Questioning old beliefs about work and success can lead to new, more enjoyable paths.