The hottest Election forecasting Substack posts right now

Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

Polls should be adjusted based on both accuracy and bias, evaluated based on all factors of data-generating process.
Future polling aggregation may move towards Bayesian statistical techniques for measurement-oriented models.
Models focusing on measurement over prediction can help explore polling components directly, improving journalistic storytelling.

Focus on discussing polling methods and public opinion substance, not just predictions
Address challenges in polling data, including trust in polls and methodologies
Emphasize visualizing uncertainty, working with robust models, and collaborating on data journalism

Some polls suggest that young Americans might vote for Trump today, contrary to past beliefs.
Young people's voting behavior may be influenced by partisan non-response and 'expressive responding.'
Despite recent polling, data from prior years indicate that young voters are largely progressive.

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Forecasting the 2024 Presidential Election involves considering a range of possibilities beyond a simple Trump versus Biden rematch.
Forecasts often rely on data and trends, but sometimes accurate forecasting requires looking beyond the present reality and positing potential scenarios.
The 2024 election could play out in multiple ways, such as Trump being too damaged to win, Trump not running as the GOP nominee, or new candidates fielded by both parties, making it a complex and unpredictable political landscape.

You can start forecasting elections easily using a simple Excel simulation tool. Just change the win probabilities for Senate races, and the simulation will quickly show you different election outcomes.
Good election forecasting requires gathering data and creating win probabilities, which can be a fun challenge. Getting started is much easier than you might think, so don't be intimidated.
While simple models are easy to run, accurate forecasting can be more complex. Serious models account for many details in how elections work, but you can still enjoy basic modeling without being an expert.

Trump's strong lead in primary polls could give him an even stronger advantage in delegate math.
Winning a majority of delegates is crucial for Trump, as it signals loyalty and strength within his party.
Delegate allocation rules play a significant role in determining the outcome of the Republican presidential nomination.