The hottest Voting behavior Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

At least five interesting things: Trump aftermath edition (#52)

Noahpinion • 20117 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting behavior Public Policy Social Issues
  1. Election narratives that blame racism or sexism might not explain how people voted in 2024. Many nonwhite voters shifted towards Trump, showing Democrats need to rethink their approach to win back support.
  2. Democrats could benefit from focusing on economic growth while also supporting social safety nets. They should prioritize public services and aim for a shared American identity to unite voters.
  3. Recent signs suggest that progress in AI might be slowing. A variety of factors, including data limitations and ongoing issues like 'hallucinations', point to a more uncertain future for AI development.

A Tale of Two States: Pennsylvania and Florida in a Post-COVID Election

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Turnout Political parties Voting behavior
  1. Pennsylvania has kept strong early voting rules from the pandemic, with a lot of Democrats using mail-in ballots this year. This shows their commitment to making voting easier and more accessible.
  2. In Florida, early voting is down as the state returned to stricter rules, showing that fewer people are participating compared to the pandemic. This shift may change the chances for both parties in the upcoming election.
  3. The differences in voting styles between Pennsylvania and Florida highlight how each state adapted after COVID-19, which could heavily impact the 2024 election outcomes.

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

Noahpinion • 16529 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Demographics Party Dynamics
  1. Asian and Hispanic voters shifted to the right in the 2024 election due to a mix of economic concerns and perceived disconnection from the Democratic Party's values. Many felt that their priorities were not being addressed.
  2. For Asian voters, issues like crime and education were key factors. Many were frustrated with rising crime rates and felt that the Democrats were not prioritizing their safety and educational opportunities.
  3. Hispanic voters also expressed economic concerns, especially about inflation and rising costs. Some felt that the Democratic Party was out of touch with their family values and priorities, contributing to their shift toward Republicans.

Have Man-Hating Feminists Gone Too Far?

The Discourse Lounge • 5052 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Feminism Gender Issues Political culture Social movements Voting behavior
  1. Some people believe modern feminism blames men for societal problems, which may affect how certain men vote. There seems to be a divide where many men support anti-feminist views, while women tend to support feminist-leaning candidates.
  2. A personal experience in a feminist class revealed that the course didn't promote hate towards men but rather focused on broader social issues like economics and inclusivity. The class provided a more nuanced understanding of feminism that counters online stereotypes.
  3. The negative perceptions of feminism among some young men often come from online content rather than actual feminist theory. Engaging directly with feminist education can help dispel myths and offer a better understanding of gender issues.

Somewhere in America...

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 5583 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion Voting behavior Political parties Electoral process Democracy
  1. People's experiences shape their political beliefs. Different backgrounds can lead individuals to align with either party based on personal stories and values.
  2. Public opinion matters in a democracy. Even if many people have extreme views, elections remind them that they are part of a larger society with diverse opinions.
  3. The process of voting and engaging in politics can feel fragmented and chaotic, but it reveals who will ultimately hold power, making it an interesting and important spectacle.
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"Abundance? No thanks."

Unpopular Front • 75 implied HN points • 29 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Debate Populism Policy Analysis Political Opinion Voting behavior
  1. Many voters prefer populism over the abundance agenda because they want to see a struggle against big corporations. People connect better with stories that have heroes and villains, rather than just focusing on policy details.
  2. A recent poll shows that more than half of voters are attracted to the idea of populism, emphasizing the need for compelling narratives in politics. Voters want to feel like they are part of a movement with clear challenges to overcome.
  3. The current abundance argument might come off as too optimistic and academic, lacking the emotional pull that comes with a more mythic representation of politics. This suggests that politics is more about inspiring action than just discussing rational ideas.

SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem

Silver Bulletin • 642 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political theory Party Dynamics Campaign Strategy
  1. Voters often feel betrayed when political parties don't keep their promises, which can lead them to punish those parties, even if they prefer their policies in the long run.
  2. Democrats have faced a challenge where their messages seem abstract and hard to connect with, making it difficult for voters to feel excited or trust them.
  3. Prediction markets and other indicators may make accurate calls about races, but there's a question of whether they are just lucky or truly insightful, reflecting the unpredictability of voter behavior.

Toxic Femininity And Wokeism Are Driving Men, Jews, Billionaires, and Muslims Away From Harris To Trump

Michael Shellenberger • 2417 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaign Strategy Voting behavior
  1. There seems to be a shift in American politics with more people moving their support from Kamala Harris to Donald Trump. Many groups, including men and some minority communities, are showing more interest in Trump.
  2. Recent polls indicate that Harris and Trump are in a very close race. Despite being behind, Harris's supporters are concerned about her chances of winning and the strength of her appeals.
  3. Trump is gaining support from various community leaders, including some in the Muslim community, which may be surprising given his past positions. This suggests a potential change in how different voter groups align politically.

Ex-Antifa member interviewed

Disaffected Newsletter • 739 implied HN points • 07 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Movements Social Issues Media Analysis Voting behavior Public Policy
  1. An ex-Antifa member discusses how family issues influenced his involvement in extremist groups. Understanding personal backgrounds can shed light on why people might join such movements.
  2. Society is becoming more accepting of unhealthy relationships, as shown by a video where a woman abuses her boyfriend. There seems to be a double standard when it comes to how we react based on gender.
  3. Euthanasia is expanding to include people who are not terminally ill. This raises important questions about who can decide when life ends and under what circumstances.

Memo to Dems: Don't blame sexism

Of Boys and Men • 274 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Gender Issues Voting behavior Democratic strategy Men's Health Social Issues
  1. Democrats should not blame sexism for their election loss. If they do, they might miss understanding the real issues voters care about.
  2. Young men are facing many challenges, but they don't feel that the left is addressing their concerns. This can make them lean towards the right.
  3. Helping boys and men can also benefit women and girls. It's important for both sides to recognize each other's struggles and work together.

Why Does Donald Trump Keep Happening?

The Ruffian • 270 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting behavior Political trends Party Dynamics
  1. Donald Trump keeps winning elections because he connects with a lot of people's feelings and fears. Many voters feel forgotten, and he makes them feel heard.
  2. The Democratic Party may be losing support because they struggle to relate to everyday issues that concern regular folks. They need to communicate better with their base.
  3. Looking ahead, it's important for all parties to listen more and understand what people really want. Engaging with the community can help rebuild trust and support.

They voted for their sons

Sex and the State • 18 implied HN points • 28 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting behavior Political trends Gender Politics
  1. Many women voted for Trump because they wanted a better future for their sons. They believed he could help improve their sons' lives.
  2. There's a growing gap between how young men and women vote, especially among those with lower incomes and education. This trend has been getting worse since 2016.
  3. If Democrats want to win these voters back, they need to show they care about the future of these young men and have plans to improve their opportunities.

The Phantom Campaign

Thinking about... • 611 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Campaigns Disinformation Media influence Voting behavior
  1. Manipulative ads can sway voters by showing misleading information. These ads can create confusion and push people towards apathy about voting.
  2. Techniques used in past campaigns, like targeted propaganda, are still being used today. This has affected people's perceptions and discourages them from participating in elections.
  3. We should be aware of how powerful individuals influence our political views. With their resources, they can distort information and impact the democratic process in harmful ways.

I got hold of a copy of the "Woke Agenda"... and it's SUPERBAD

So Here’s a Thing • 1435 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Political Ideologies Political Discourse Policy Making Voting behavior
  1. The concept of extending care and compassion to all individuals, regardless of differences, is crucial in today's world.
  2. The 'Woke Agenda' is often misrepresented by some as promoting communism when in reality, it advocates for simple kindness and understanding.
  3. The divide between right-wing and left-wing ideologies lies in the willingness to bridge gaps or widen them, with the importance of empathy and unity being central to societal progress.

Politics for men

Of Boys and Men • 173 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political issues Voting behavior Gender Politics
  1. There is a growing need for a political agenda that focuses on issues facing boys and men. Many of these challenges are often ignored, leading to feelings of neglect.
  2. Current political dynamics show that young men could sway election outcomes. They are still looking for candidates who address their concerns effectively.
  3. A balanced approach that acknowledges and supports the needs of both men and women could be beneficial for any political party. It's important for voters to feel seen and heard.

Waiting for the Great American Realignment

American Dreaming • 107 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Elections Voting behavior Party Affiliation Public Perception
  1. Recent elections show that party loyalty is still strong, with very few voters switching from one party to another. Most Democrats and Republicans are sticking with their party's candidates.
  2. Voter demographics are changing, especially when it comes to education and income. More educated voters are leaning towards Democrats, while non-college educated voters are increasingly supporting Republicans.
  3. Despite claims of a major political shift, the overall patterns in voting and party support remain surprisingly stable. There's no clear evidence of a significant realignment in American politics.

AOC Agonistes

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 46 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Political Leadership Voting behavior Progressive politics
  1. AOC has been campaigning actively for the Democratic Party, showing her commitment to supporting candidates like Kamala Harris. Her efforts have drawn attention but have not significantly swayed voter behavior in key demographics.
  2. Ocasio-Cortez seems to have shifted from her earlier revolutionary stance to fitting more comfortably within the Democratic establishment. This transition raises questions about her future role and influence on the left.
  3. There is a growing disconnect between AOC and younger voters who may not align with her political style. If she doesn't reach out to different audiences, she might struggle to maintain her relevance in the future.

Project Fear Is Not Enough

The Weekly Dish • 160 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Political strategy Voting behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling in her political campaign and isn't gaining much support. It's important for candidates to connect with voters and show strong leadership.
  2. Fear tactics alone won't win elections; candidates need to have clear and positive messages. Engaging people with hope is often more effective than just warning them about the opposition.
  3. A candidate's popularity can be influenced by their ability to communicate and inspire. Good communication skills and a relatable presence make a big difference in how voters perceive them.

My Vote is for Sale

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 17 Feb 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting behavior Political Advertising
  1. Your individual vote is unlikely to change an election outcome due to the sheer number of voters. Statistically, being the decisive vote is extremely rare, so it can feel like our choices don't matter much.
  2. Political ads cost a lot of money, but they don't significantly influence voter behavior. Most people won’t change their vote just because of an advertisement.
  3. Instead of spending billions on ads, let's consider direct payments to voters. It could make campaigns more fun and engage people in a different way.

Fragmentation Among Floating Voters

Japan Economy Watch • 39 implied HN points • 04 Nov 21
🌍 World Politics Elections Political parties Voting behavior Power Dynamics Global impact
  1. Floating voters in Japan are crucial as they often decide election outcomes by their turnout and preferences. Their choices impact the viability of various political parties.
  2. Disenchantment with major political parties is evident among floating voters, leading to increased fragmentation in voting patterns.
  3. The rise of minor parties and shifts in voter loyalty suggest a potential realignment in Japan's political landscape, impacting the ruling party's future and the center-left's stability.

Turn-out, tune-in, and roll-off in Fairfax County, VA

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 09 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Turnout Political Science Local government Voting behavior
  1. Voter turnout in off-year elections, like local elections, tends to be low. People usually show less interest in state and local races compared to presidential elections.
  2. Roll-off means that voters often skip lower-profile races on the ballot. Many people vote for the main position but leave other options blank, showing a lack of interest or awareness for local issues.
  3. Non-partisan elections can harm democracy. Without party labels next to candidates' names, it's harder for voters to make informed choices about local officials.

So you want to be an amateur election forecaster? Here's step zero.

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election forecasting Public Opinion Voting behavior Statistical Analysis
  1. You can start forecasting elections easily using a simple Excel simulation tool. Just change the win probabilities for Senate races, and the simulation will quickly show you different election outcomes.
  2. Good election forecasting requires gathering data and creating win probabilities, which can be a fun challenge. Getting started is much easier than you might think, so don't be intimidated.
  3. While simple models are easy to run, accurate forecasting can be more complex. Serious models account for many details in how elections work, but you can still enjoy basic modeling without being an expert.

California Dreamin'

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Ideology State Politics Political parties Voting behavior
  1. California Republicans can be very conservative, sometimes even more than those in traditionally conservative states like Alabama. It's a common myth that Republicans in liberal states are less conservative.
  2. Voting patterns can be misleading when judging state political leanings. Just because a state leans liberal overall doesn't mean that all its Republican voters think the same way.
  3. Party dynamics, like support from influential media and party leaders, can play a big role in shaping primary elections. This means voters might have less influence than expected on who gets nominated.

A common fallacy, circulating this week. Plus some polisci.

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Policy Voting behavior
  1. Polls don’t tell the whole story about voter decisions. Just because most people support a policy doesn't mean it will help a candidate win votes.
  2. The strength of people's feelings about an issue matters. Some may care a lot about a policy while others may not think it influences their vote much.
  3. Good public policy should matter to political parties, not just winning elections. Sometimes, making tough decisions for long-term benefits is more important than immediate electoral gains.

Link'in Park

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting behavior Campaign strategies Political Commentary
  1. GOP primary voters may not prioritize electability as much as expected. It's important to focus on what actually matters to them.
  2. Online piracy is seen by some as a theft issue, but there are discussions about its impact on the economy and how we view copyright.
  3. Recent political decisions, like indefinite detention laws, can lead to disappointment among citizens who care about civil rights and the Constitution.

The Intense Focus on *White* Evangelicals Misses Where ‘The Action’ Is

Symbolic Capital(ism) • 0 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting behavior Political trends
  1. Understanding electoral outcomes requires focusing on populations with growing influence or majorities, rather than shrinking or less significant groups.
  2. White evangelical voters have shown remarkable consistency in their voting behavior over the past two decades, making them less influential in explaining recent political outcomes.
  3. The decline of evangelical Christianity is occurring at a slower rate than other Christian denominations, with non-white evangelicals playing an increasingly prominent role in shaping political trends.

How often does the majority lose in the House?

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Political parties Voting behavior Leadership
  1. The majority in the House rarely loses votes. It's not a common occurrence for them to be defeated.
  2. When they do lose, it can happen in several ways, like pulling a bill before a vote or losing the vote on a specific rule.
  3. In the past, the majority leadership lost more often due to less party unity and more control by the leadership over their members.