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Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Reality Check

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2537 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Candidates Political trends Voter Behavior
  1. Polling shows a tight race, which might favor Trump since he's historically done well in similar situations. Key voters who are likely to turn out are showing signs they might back him.
  2. Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, are facing issues with voter turnout and are seen as frustrated. Trump, on the other hand, appears to be energized and is campaigning actively in swing states.
  3. Many Americans feel dissatisfied with their current situation, and they trust Republicans more on major issues like the economy and crime. This shift in sentiment could impact the election results.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political trends Campaigns Polls
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

SHOW NOTES: They, Them, and You; Feminine Pee Squatters; Leaks; and Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1179 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Political parties National Security
  1. Trump's campaign messages resonate with voters, particularly on cultural issues, while Democrats struggle to connect with certain demographics like men and minorities.
  2. The recent leaks of classified information from the Biden-Harris administration raise serious concerns about national security and the integrity of intelligence operations.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign appears ineffective as she distances herself from traditional voter outreach and relies on celebrity endorsements rather than genuine connection with the public.

Delta Is Ready When You Are, Democrats

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2697 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Polls Voter Engagement
  1. Many Democrats are starting to feel nervous about the upcoming election. They think Trump might have a better chance of winning than before.
  2. There are worries that the Democrats are not connecting well with Black and Latino voters, especially younger men. This could be a big problem in the election.
  3. Some Democrats believe their campaign strategies have not been effective. They think they may have waited too long to focus on important issues that matter to voters.
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Three Weeks To Go

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 939 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Candidates Parties Issues
  1. Trump and Harris are tied in the election, but Trump seems to be gaining support. More people think he has the edge on important issues like the economy and crime.
  2. Many voters who were unsure about Trump are now feeling more positive about him. They are starting to move away from supporting Harris.
  3. There's a shift happening with some voters, especially among racial minorities, who are leaning toward Trump more than before. This could change the election dynamics.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Polls Political Analysis
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Pennsylvania Update: GOP Showing BIG Increases from 2020 and 2022

COVID Reason • 297 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Polls Campaigns
  1. Early voting in Pennsylvania shows Republicans have surged by over 51% since 2020, with an even bigger jump of 83% from 2022 to 2024.
  2. Democrats, however, are down by 14% since 2020 but have slightly increased their early voting compared to 2022.
  3. The biggest Democratic areas are in Philadelphia and Allegheny County, while places like Bedford and Fulton County are strongholds for Republicans.

Polls: Harris slipping! Race Tightens

COVID Reason • 178 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns Candidates Immigration
  1. Polls show Kamala Harris is losing ground to Donald Trump, with the race tightening as the campaign progresses.
  2. Harris is facing criticism for not delivering on her campaign promises, which has disappointed some voters.
  3. Concerns about Harris's past support for certain policies could be used against her in the election, indicating a potential political vulnerability.

Goodbye Ron, Good Luck Nikki

The Status Kuo • 11950 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Primary Campaign Polls Candidates
  1. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the GOP primary race due to lack of charisma and inability to outdo Trump.
  2. Nikki Haley faces challenges catching up to Trump in the primary race, lacking voter enthusiasm and support.
  3. Trump's strong lead in polls signals his likely nomination, which could be a strategic advantage for Joe Biden in the upcoming election.

Election Update 4: Hints of Panic and Rage, But It's Still Early

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7521 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political News Polls Public Opinion
  1. Election night can be stressful and filled with mixed emotions for news anchors as they report on unfolding results. They try to keep things light but can still feel the pressure of the outcome.
  2. While some early results seem to favor one candidate, it's still too early to draw hard conclusions. The dynamics of voting can change as more votes come in.
  3. It's important to stay calm and not panic no matter the initial news. The election process has many twists and turns that can change the situation quickly.

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Silver Bulletin • 1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Elections Voting Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
  2. Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
  3. Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

Daily Poll Update - October 2, 2020

COVID Reason • 118 implied HN points • 02 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Surveys Campaigns Public Opinion
  1. The daily updates will share the latest averages for polls leading up to the election. This will help people understand the current landscape of voter opinions.
  2. Currently, the national poll shows Harris leading Trump by a small margin. It's close, so every vote will really count.
  3. The updates will continue consistently over the next 30 days as the election approaches. It's a crucial time for voters to stay informed.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Forecasting
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

Byelection slaughter: Yeah, so it turns out the Tories are screwed after all

Striking 13 • 2835 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Leaders Polls Candidates
  1. Despite negative headlines, Labour's performance in byelections remains strong with significant swings in their favor.
  2. The Conservative party is facing significant struggles and losses, marked by the largest fall in post-war history.
  3. Reform party is making a mark in elections, potentially impacting Tory wins and skewing expectations.

Why the 2024 Polls are So Confusing Right Now

The Message Box • 2162 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Election Third-Party
  1. Polls are not predictions, but snapshots of the current situation based on educated guesses about voter turnout.
  2. The 2024 election is unique with unpredictable variables like a former president running again and a high interest in third-party candidates.
  3. Polls are showing inconsistencies due to varying treatment of third-party candidates, and targeting hard-to-reach groups like Independents and young voters.

How high will turnout be?

Silver Bulletin • 562 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. There is a sale on annual subscriptions, offering a 25% discount for new subscribers in a limited time. It's a great chance to join if you're interested.
  2. On Election Day, there will be a lot of data collection and model updates to predict outcomes. The team will run 80,000 simulations to get the best forecast possible.
  3. The predicted voter turnout is around 155.3 million, slightly lower than the last election, but still high compared to earlier years. How many people actually vote could really influence the results.

SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!

Silver Bulletin • 507 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Campaigns Political theory
  1. Election Day tends to be calm since there’s not much to do until results come in. It's a good time to reflect instead of focusing too much on exit polls.
  2. Different prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight's, can have varying odds for candidates which might not reflect the true situation. It's important to pay attention to both polls and the underlying fundamentals.
  3. There are concerns that too many prediction models can lead pollsters to stick closely to common predictions, impacting the variety of polling results we see.

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

Silver Bulletin • 536 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polls Political Analysis Election forecasting
  1. Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
  2. Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
  3. Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

NEW POLL SHOWS MUSK EFFECT: AfD at new high, Free Democrats in collapse, Christian Democrats and Greens too weak for a coalition

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 134 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Political parties Public Opinion Election interference
  1. A recent poll shows a rise in support for the AfD party in Germany, reaching a new high. This suggests shifts in political preferences among voters.
  2. The Free Democrats are experiencing a significant drop in support, indicating trouble for that party right now.
  3. The traditional parties like the Christian Democrats and Greens may struggle to form a coalition, as their support is too low.

June 11, 2025

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Public Opinion Government Policies
  1. Many voters are unhappy with President Trump's policies, with most disapproving of his handling of various issues like immigration and the economy.
  2. Scientists are voicing their opposition to government health policies, concerned that political agendas are compromising public health research.
  3. Despite Trump's insistence on a trade deal with China, it seems more like a temporary solution rather than a substantial agreement, causing ongoing economic uncertainty.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings 2024 archive

Silver Bulletin • 4 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Analysis
  1. The Silver Bulletin has updated its pollster ratings for the 2024 presidential election, also keeping the old ones for reference. This helps everyone see how reliable different pollsters are.
  2. Not many new polls have come in since the last update, so the overall ratings haven't changed much. The most accurate pollsters from previous years are still at the top.
  3. The 2024 polling data includes some recent elections, but the accuracy of the polls has been similar to past years, with a noticeable bias in some cases. It's important to stay aware of this while following the elections.

Global News Round-up - Offbeat News

Who is Robert Malone • 12 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Public Opinion Political parties Government actions
  1. A poll in the UK shows Nigel Farage's Reform party is now more popular than the Labour party, leading to concerns about upcoming local elections.
  2. Support for the Ukrainian war is declining in Poland, with more citizens opposing military assistance and negative sentiments towards Ukrainians growing.
  3. The Scottish government clarified that they will not ban cats, reassuring pet owners after initial talks about recommendations that caused confusion.

The Backlash in Deep-Blue America

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2508 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Candidates Polls
  1. One in ten 2020 Biden voters now support Donald Trump, indicating trouble for Biden's reelection bid.
  2. Progressive places like San Francisco and Oregon are embracing law-and-order policies, signaling a shift towards 'common sense' approaches.
  3. Conservatives are gaining ground in political fights in deep-blue areas like Washington, D.C., New York, and California, reflecting a broader conservative backlash.

Ignore the exit polls

The Dossier • 282 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Voting Polls Political Analysis
  1. Exit polls are often misleading and can manipulate how voters feel. They are not reliable indicators of actual election outcomes.
  2. These polls can create fear or doubt among voters, affecting their decisions at the polls. It’s important to stay confident and ignore this noise.
  3. Instead of relying on exit polls, focus on voting and trust that your voice matters. The real results will be clear when the polls close.

Could October 7 Bring Down the Squad?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 964 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Congress Lobbying Polls Democrats
  1. Democratic Rep. Summer Lee faced backlash from Pittsburgh's Jewish community for her actions and comments regarding Israel and Hamas.
  2. The Squad members, including Summer Lee, are facing serious primary challenges from well-funded opponents due to their stance on Israel and their support of movements like Ceasefire Now.
  3. The Democratic Party is experiencing internal conflict over attitudes towards Israel, with more moderate Democrats and the pro-Israel lobby opposing the harsh criticism of the Jewish state by some left-wing members of the party.

Election Update #9: No, Trump is Not Leading Now

Phillips’s Newsletter • 67 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Polls can make people feel either hopeful or scared. Some people focus on good polls, while others worry about bad ones.
  2. Currently, there isn't much change happening in the election race. Even events that seemed impactful didn't really alter the polling results significantly.
  3. It's important to avoid getting too excited or too worried about polls. Small shifts don't always mean big changes in the election outcome.

The White House is betting the election on a theory of skewed polls 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩

Silver Bulletin • 308 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns White House Media
  1. Democrats have historically not been trailing in presidential race polls until now, leading to a sense of confidence within their campaign officials.
  2. In the current presidential race, Joe Biden is behind in the polls against Trump, hinting at potential challenges ahead.
  3. The White House has shown signs of poll denialism, reacting negatively to polling data that does not align with their expectations.