The hottest Polls Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Reality Check

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2537 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Polling shows a tight race, which might favor Trump since he's historically done well in similar situations. Key voters who are likely to turn out are showing signs they might back him.
  2. Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, are facing issues with voter turnout and are seen as frustrated. Trump, on the other hand, appears to be energized and is campaigning actively in swing states.
  3. Many Americans feel dissatisfied with their current situation, and they trust Republicans more on major issues like the economy and crime. This shift in sentiment could impact the election results.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

SHOW NOTES: They, Them, and You; Feminine Pee Squatters; Leaks; and Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1179 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Trump's campaign messages resonate with voters, particularly on cultural issues, while Democrats struggle to connect with certain demographics like men and minorities.
  2. The recent leaks of classified information from the Biden-Harris administration raise serious concerns about national security and the integrity of intelligence operations.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign appears ineffective as she distances herself from traditional voter outreach and relies on celebrity endorsements rather than genuine connection with the public.

Delta Is Ready When You Are, Democrats

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2697 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Many Democrats are starting to feel nervous about the upcoming election. They think Trump might have a better chance of winning than before.
  2. There are worries that the Democrats are not connecting well with Black and Latino voters, especially younger men. This could be a big problem in the election.
  3. Some Democrats believe their campaign strategies have not been effective. They think they may have waited too long to focus on important issues that matter to voters.
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Three Weeks To Go

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 939 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Trump and Harris are tied in the election, but Trump seems to be gaining support. More people think he has the edge on important issues like the economy and crime.
  2. Many voters who were unsure about Trump are now feeling more positive about him. They are starting to move away from supporting Harris.
  3. There's a shift happening with some voters, especially among racial minorities, who are leaning toward Trump more than before. This could change the election dynamics.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Pennsylvania Update: GOP Showing BIG Increases from 2020 and 2022

COVID Reason • 297 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Early voting in Pennsylvania shows Republicans have surged by over 51% since 2020, with an even bigger jump of 83% from 2022 to 2024.
  2. Democrats, however, are down by 14% since 2020 but have slightly increased their early voting compared to 2022.
  3. The biggest Democratic areas are in Philadelphia and Allegheny County, while places like Bedford and Fulton County are strongholds for Republicans.

Polls: Harris slipping! Race Tightens

COVID Reason • 178 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Polls show Kamala Harris is losing ground to Donald Trump, with the race tightening as the campaign progresses.
  2. Harris is facing criticism for not delivering on her campaign promises, which has disappointed some voters.
  3. Concerns about Harris's past support for certain policies could be used against her in the election, indicating a potential political vulnerability.

Goodbye Ron, Good Luck Nikki

The Status Kuo • 11950 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the GOP primary race due to lack of charisma and inability to outdo Trump.
  2. Nikki Haley faces challenges catching up to Trump in the primary race, lacking voter enthusiasm and support.
  3. Trump's strong lead in polls signals his likely nomination, which could be a strategic advantage for Joe Biden in the upcoming election.

Latest Poll Averages: 10/7

COVID Reason • 99 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Harris is leading Trump by 2.3% in the latest average polls, with 49.1% support compared to Trump's 46.8%.
  2. The data covers a date range from September 19 to October 4, showing recent polling trends.
  3. Individual state polls are available, which can provide a clearer picture of local support for the candidates.

Daily Poll Update - October 2, 2020

COVID Reason • 118 implied HN points • 02 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. The daily updates will share the latest averages for polls leading up to the election. This will help people understand the current landscape of voter opinions.
  2. Currently, the national poll shows Harris leading Trump by a small margin. It's close, so every vote will really count.
  3. The updates will continue consistently over the next 30 days as the election approaches. It's a crucial time for voters to stay informed.

Go, Nikki, go!

Lucian Truscott Newsletter • 4520 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Nikki Haley staying in the race is bad news for Donald Trump.
  2. Trump is unhappy about the support Haley received in New Hampshire, seeing it as against him.
  3. Republican voters may turn away from Trump if he is found guilty of a crime.

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin • 2808 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Donald Trump's approval rating is currently at 44.9%, with more people disapproving than approving. This rating hasn't changed much in the last few weeks.
  2. His approval on certain issues like immigration, the economy, and inflation has been steady, but there's a drop in approval for his trade policies.
  3. Polling accuracy has been a struggle with Trump's popularity, and many polls have not captured it correctly in the past.

Why the 2024 Polls are So Confusing Right Now

The Message Box • 2162 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Polls are not predictions, but snapshots of the current situation based on educated guesses about voter turnout.
  2. The 2024 election is unique with unpredictable variables like a former president running again and a high interest in third-party candidates.
  3. Polls are showing inconsistencies due to varying treatment of third-party candidates, and targeting hard-to-reach groups like Independents and young voters.

Election Update 4: Hints of Panic and Rage, But It's Still Early

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7521 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Election night can be stressful and filled with mixed emotions for news anchors as they report on unfolding results. They try to keep things light but can still feel the pressure of the outcome.
  2. While some early results seem to favor one candidate, it's still too early to draw hard conclusions. The dynamics of voting can change as more votes come in.
  3. It's important to stay calm and not panic no matter the initial news. The election process has many twists and turns that can change the situation quickly.

Political Trench Warfare

The Liberal Patriot • 982 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. 2024 election between Biden and Trump is extremely close with no clear leader
  2. Possible issues like abortion, immigration, and economy could sway election
  3. Campaign competency and strategies may play a crucial role in the election outcome

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Silver Bulletin • 1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
  2. Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
  3. Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

The Backlash in Deep-Blue America

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2508 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. One in ten 2020 Biden voters now support Donald Trump, indicating trouble for Biden's reelection bid.
  2. Progressive places like San Francisco and Oregon are embracing law-and-order policies, signaling a shift towards 'common sense' approaches.
  3. Conservatives are gaining ground in political fights in deep-blue areas like Washington, D.C., New York, and California, reflecting a broader conservative backlash.

The Polls Scream Mamdani, But Cuomo Won’t Quit

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Zohran Mamdani is leading in polls for the New York City mayoral race. A recent poll shows him far ahead of Andrew Cuomo.
  2. Andrew Cuomo, despite his past as governor, is struggling in this election. Many believe he should reconsider his candidacy.
  3. The election is shaping up to be favorable for Mamdani, highlighting a shift in voter preferences toward more progressive candidates.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Silver Bulletin • 905 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. The presidential race is extremely close, almost a 50/50 chance for each candidate. This makes it tough to predict who will win.
  2. Recent simulations showed a slight edge for Kamala Harris, but overall results were very mixed, indicating a highly uncertain outcome.
  3. Voting is crucial in this tight race; it really comes down to what people choose, making it more important than any guessing games.

How high will turnout be?

Silver Bulletin • 562 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. There is a sale on annual subscriptions, offering a 25% discount for new subscribers in a limited time. It's a great chance to join if you're interested.
  2. On Election Day, there will be a lot of data collection and model updates to predict outcomes. The team will run 80,000 simulations to get the best forecast possible.
  3. The predicted voter turnout is around 155.3 million, slightly lower than the last election, but still high compared to earlier years. How many people actually vote could really influence the results.

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

Silver Bulletin • 536 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Early voting results can be misleading and not represent the final election outcomes. This means you shouldn't take those numbers too seriously.
  2. Different states can show very different patterns in early voting, making it hard to predict actual election results based on early votes alone.
  3. Polling errors can be huge when it comes to early votes, sometimes off by more than 14 points, which is significantly worse than traditional polling standards.

Happy Election Day -300!

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 198 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Polls are not very useful 300 days before an election, but become more reliable as the election day approaches.
  2. Poll discourse before a certain point historically lacks accuracy and predictive value.
  3. Analyzing crosstabs for major shifts in vote choice between elections may lead to misleading interpretations.

SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!

Silver Bulletin • 507 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Election Day tends to be calm since there’s not much to do until results come in. It's a good time to reflect instead of focusing too much on exit polls.
  2. Different prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight's, can have varying odds for candidates which might not reflect the true situation. It's important to pay attention to both polls and the underlying fundamentals.
  3. There are concerns that too many prediction models can lead pollsters to stick closely to common predictions, impacting the variety of polling results we see.

Could October 7 Bring Down the Squad?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 964 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Democratic Rep. Summer Lee faced backlash from Pittsburgh's Jewish community for her actions and comments regarding Israel and Hamas.
  2. The Squad members, including Summer Lee, are facing serious primary challenges from well-funded opponents due to their stance on Israel and their support of movements like Ceasefire Now.
  3. The Democratic Party is experiencing internal conflict over attitudes towards Israel, with more moderate Democrats and the pro-Israel lobby opposing the harsh criticism of the Jewish state by some left-wing members of the party.

Ignore the exit polls

The Dossier • 282 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Exit polls are often misleading and can manipulate how voters feel. They are not reliable indicators of actual election outcomes.
  2. These polls can create fear or doubt among voters, affecting their decisions at the polls. It’s important to stay confident and ignore this noise.
  3. Instead of relying on exit polls, focus on voting and trust that your voice matters. The real results will be clear when the polls close.

Results from poll #1

The Counterfactual • 79 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Polls
  1. A new paid option allows subscribers to vote on topics for future articles. This way, readers can influence the content being created.
  2. This month's poll showed that readers chose a study on using language models to measure text readability. This will be the focus of upcoming research and articles.
  3. In addition to the readability study, there will be future posts about the history of AI, learning over different timescales, and a survey to learn more about the audience's interests.

Slouching Towards Trump

Silver Bulletin • 538 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. Donald Trump is expected to win the Republican caucuses in Iowa.
  2. Despite early competition, Trump's main challengers like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are struggling.
  3. People are not treating a potential Trump re-election as a high-stakes situation.

This was Very Close: The Numbers

startupdreams • 211 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. The election was surprisingly close, with only 247,000 votes deciding the outcome in three key states.
  2. Even though Trump won the popular vote by a large margin, the close numbers raise questions about the legitimacy of his mandate.
  3. This election mirrors the tight races of 2020, showing that the political landscape remains very divided.

Some Fascinating Poll Results - Americans are starting to agree on some very important things

startupdreams • 741 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls
  1. 70% of Americans are concerned about election interference by the FBI or intelligence agencies, showing lack of confidence in elections.
  2. 71% of Americans believe wide-ranging reform is necessary to prevent election interference by government institutions, indicating a bipartisan distrust in government.
  3. A large majority of Americans are not surprised that the FBI violated its own policies, highlighting a bipartisan distrust of the FBI.