The hottest NFL Substack posts right now

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Stealing Signals, Week 7, Part 1

Stealing Signals • 599 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The NFL is in a really good place right now, with scoring on the rise and less negativity surrounding the product. Injuries are still a challenge, but overall, fans are enjoying the games more.
  2. Recent changes in player safety rules, like the expedited replay system, have improved the game without causing major disruptions. Players are adapting, particularly to new tackling rules that keep things safer.
  3. The trend of talent influencing outcomes is stronger than ever, as top performers are shining and leading their teams. This makes watching and predicting games more exciting for fans and analysts alike.

If the Las Vegas Raiders Don't Trade Down From the First Overall Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, They'll Regret It

Freddie deBoer • 2165 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Trading down from the first pick is smarter than drafting Fernando Mendoza; the Raiders should convert that top pick into multiple quality assets instead of betting everything on one rookie.
  2. The team’s problems run deeper than quarterback — a weak interior offensive line and thin roster depth would likely stunt any rookie QB’s development, so they need several reliable starters, not a single savior.
  3. Trade premium-but-aging assets like Maxx Crosby to stockpile picks, pursue a proven QB (e.g., Kyler Murray) for short-term stability, and use the accumulated capital to rebuild the trenches and long-term flexibility.

Stealing Signals, Week 7, Part 2

Stealing Signals • 459 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Injuries are a big issue in football, and they affect players and fans alike. The recent injury to Chris Godwin reminds everyone how tough the sport can be.
  2. Rule changes in the NFL, like those around the hip drop tackle, seem to help reduce injuries. While some still happen, these rules aim to keep players safer on the field.
  3. Some players are shining bright despite injuries to their teammates. Looking out for players like Tyler Johnson and Brock Bowers could be key for fantasy football managers.

Input Volatility, Week 6

Stealing Signals • 439 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Injuries are impacting many teams, and managing your roster well is important. Pay close attention to injury reports to make smart roster moves.
  2. Some players are stepping up as key backups due to injuries, making them valuable adds for fantasy teams. Keep an eye on players like Isaac Guerendo and Blake Corum as potential game-changers.
  3. The unpredictability of player performance is a big part of the NFL season. A player's value can change quickly based on game situations and injuries, so stay flexible in your strategy.

The Buffalo Bills Are a Mess, But Sean McDermott's Firing Was Totally Justifiable

Freddie deBoer • 2382 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Sean McDermott rebuilt the Bills and earned respect, but his defenses repeatedly collapsed in playoff games, so firing him was justifiable.
  2. The team's biggest problems have been poor roster construction—especially at wide receiver and in getting an impact pass rusher—which are primarily the GM's responsibility and have crippled postseason chances.
  3. Fans and local media have reason to be angry about how the firing and front office handling were conducted, but meaningful change was necessary to try to get past the team’s playoff ceiling.
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What the Bills Mafia Teaches Us About Resilience

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 180 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Fans stay fiercely loyal despite decades of heartbreak, and their love of football and life keeps them going.
  2. The team has reached high levels—MVPs and playoff wins—yet keeps falling short of the ultimate prize, showing that resilience matters as much as trophies.
  3. Painful, public setbacks like controversial losses and coaching changes are part of the journey, but the community keeps coming together and finding pride in perseverance.

Was There A Football Game Last Night?

Points And Figures • 532 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. I went to a post-Christmas Norwegian party and enjoyed traditional treats like krumkakes and pickled beets.
  2. The long Bears–Packers rivalry is alive, and Packers fans have had the upper hand through the Favre and Rodgers eras while Jordan Love now looks capable.
  3. The Bears are champions of the NFC North but face a very tough game against the 49ers, so it’s a big test for the Monsters of the Midway.

The Never-ending Agony of Being a Jets Fan

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 129 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Being a Jets fan means constant disappointment and emotional pain, and that feeling is especially intense around events like the Super Bowl.
  2. This season feels worse than usual because the Jets have connections to both Super Bowl teams, which amplifies the sting for fans.
  3. Long-term failures—no playoff appearances since 2010 and a low winning percentage this century—have deepened fan frustration and turned the team into a cultural punchline.

All or Nothing

JoeBlogs • 2889 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The past featured many consolation games and exhibition matches that crowned champions without being for meaningful championships.
  2. Players sometimes competed in consolation games for the extra money.
  3. Reflecting on whether the past system of consolation games was better than the current approach.

SBSQ #28b: Maye vs. Stafford and Yelp vs. Google

Silver Bulletin • 212 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Advanced metrics give Drake Maye the edge for MVP because they count all QB plays (passes, sacks, scrambles) and show he leads in QBERT, EPA, and net yards per dropback; his mobility and rushing production offset Stafford’s better raw passing and TD totals.
  2. Google ratings are generally higher and easier to leave while Yelp is stricter and skews toward foodie, urban reviewers, so scores can differ; when picking restaurants, prioritize the number of reviews over the average, check the menu to match your tastes, and don’t oversearch for perfection.
  3. The College Football Playoff selection is broken because the committee mixes inconsistent goals (picking the most ‘deserving’ teams vs. the objectively ‘best’ teams) and applies criteria unevenly; they should clarify their objective, include more diverse and data-savvy members, or use a transparent algorithm.

So, who’s going to win the Super Bowl?

Silver Bulletin • 280 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. This NFL season was unusually chaotic, with most preseason co-favorites failing to make the playoffs and standings flipping because of close-game variance and injuries.
  2. A new predictive model that updates through the season and accounts for quarterback play, injuries, weather, home-field and rest gives refined playoff odds and currently rates Seattle as the likeliest Super Bowl contender, though no team has anywhere near a 50% chance.
  3. Turnover margins are often driven by luck and are less reliable for prediction than efficiency stats like yards per play or sacks, while injuries can meaningfully reduce a team’s rating and playoff prospects.

Uni Watch Power Rankings for This Season’s NFL Throwbacks

Uni Watch • 727 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Twenty NFL teams wore throwback uniforms this season, the highest number since 1994.
  2. Retro designs varied in their history and appearances, adding diversity to the throwback sets.
  3. The rankings listed the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions as having the least appealing throwback uniforms.

All-NFC North Team, Part I: Who's King of the North?

Go Long with Tyler Dunne • 491 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The Detroit Lions won their first division title in 29 years, breaking a long drought.
  2. The Green Bay Packers may have found a new great quarterback in Jordan Love, continuing their legacy of strong quarterback play.
  3. The NFC North division is wide open with no team having a combination of an elite head coach and elite quarterback.

A Deep Dive on the Most Radical Uniform in NFL History

Uni Watch • 766 implied HN points • 11 May 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The Denver Broncos' 1997 uniform redesign was highly controversial and viewed as a game-changer in NFL uniform design.
  2. Despite being a radical design, the Denver '97 uniform has had surprising longevity and is now one of the NFL's longest-serving uniform designs.
  3. While the Broncos' 1997 uniform set influenced the world of college football, it hasn't had a significant impact on NFL uniform design in the long run.

Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 1

Stealing Signals • 959 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Jaguars and Colts had fun playing with good coaches in a game with exciting plays.
  2. Ridley looked like a legit No. 1 with strong performance after layoff.
  3. Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, and Elijah Moore had positive signs for their roles.

The Spirit of Jonathan Owens

Go Long with Tyler Dunne • 432 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Jonathan Owens has overcome adversity and self-doubt to succeed in the NFL and make a significant impact on the Green Bay Packers.
  2. His relationship with Simone Biles is based on genuine connection and mutual support, transcending celebrity status.
  3. Owens emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities, staying resilient, and supporting teammates, inspiring others with his journey.

Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 2

Stealing Signals • 819 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Josh Allen had a tough game with 3 INTs, but the game got weird
  2. Puka Nacua had an impressive performance with high targets and potential
  3. Breece Hall showed explosiveness and outperformed expectations on the ground

Future of the Vikings, Part 7: Quarterback

Purple Insider • 314 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The Vikings' future hinges on their quarterback decision this offseason with a variety of paths available.
  2. Kirk Cousins' contract situation is a major factor to consider for the team; his return or departure will shape the team's direction.
  3. Backup quarterbacks like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens showed potential but faced challenges, leaving uncertainty in the Vikings' QB situation.

MR WRONG: Another dip in the Super Bowl

INDIGNITY • 275 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Super Bowl is a big deal with indulging in food, random gambling, and interesting prop bets like the Coin Toss or National Anthem duration.
  2. Some people feel less excited about the Super Bowl due to commercial previews and focus more on betting on various aspects like the Coin Toss or player actions.
  3. General excitement around the Super Bowl includes enjoying the game, drinking beer, and temporarily forgetting about bigger world issues, despite the ongoing commercial and military-industrial complex distractions.

Stacking the Back: A lesson from the Rams.

MatchQuarters • 334 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The Los Angeles Rams improved their defense by diversifying their defensive coverages.
  2. The Rams' focus on developing talent internally rather than making high draft picks has paid off.
  3. Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris made impactful strategic decisions that helped the Rams shut down opponents' key offensive weapons.

On Romeo Doubs' great escape

Go Long with Tyler Dunne • 294 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Romeo Doubs opens up about his tumultuous upbringing and unique approach to life.
  2. Keyshawn Johnson believes Doubs is the best receiver for the Green Bay Packers.
  3. Roy Holmes Jr. highlights Doubs' humility, determination, and unique talent on the field.

Stealing Signals, Week 2, Part 2

Stealing Signals • 639 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Fantasy football analysis should consider unpredictability in team strategies and player usage.
  2. Running back depth and flexibility in fantasy football is important to navigate unexpected situations.
  3. Understanding matchups and player roles is key in making fantasy football decisions, especially with a focus on RB ceilings.

The buzz from radio row

Purple Insider • 255 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Radio Row during the Super Bowl is chaotic with hundreds of hosts and guests wandering around.
  2. Analytics in NFL is gaining trust but there's no consensus on interpretation yet.
  3. Former players and hosts are discussing the use of analytics and its impact on decision-making in football.

An Odd Theory on Justin Herbert Apologism

House of Strauss • 27 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Quarterbacks are best judged by what they actually do on the field, since the sport is chaotic and contextual excuses often overreach.
  2. Justin Herbert has elite physical tools and high football intelligence, but his advanced metrics and playoff outings suggest roughly average production and a tendency to struggle under duress.
  3. Much of the media's protective praise reflects the Chargers' weak, apathetic fan base; with fewer passionate critics, his reputation faces less scrutiny and can persist despite inconsistent play.

NFL Thoughts: A Contrarian Theory on Who the NFL's Best Player is and a Reader Dumps on Justin Herbert

House of Strauss • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Derek Stingley Jr. may be the NFL’s most impactful player because quarterbacks often avoid his side of the field. His coverage stats — a very low completion rate and tiny passer rating when targeted — suggest elite, game-changing disruption.
  2. Cornerbacks are widely undervalued and losing a starting corner can cause a big defensive drop-off, so truly elite corners can provide outsized team advantage. That lack of public and analytic attention may hide how important the position is.
  3. Justin Herbert is a very good quarterback but not clearly elite; repeated OC changes, persistent injuries, and middling advanced metrics indicate he hasn’t taken the next step. Blaming only the organization for his shortcomings is becoming a weaker explanation.

Stealing Signals, Week 3, Part 2

Stealing Signals • 519 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. Don't jump to conclusions early in the fantasy football season, as performances can change drastically over time.
  2. Be patient with young players and watch for trends to develop before making decisions.
  3. Utilize statistics like WOPR to help normalize and evaluate player performances accurately.

The options and implications of the Vikings' QB decision

Purple Insider • 393 implied HN points • 30 Oct 23
🎾 Sports NFL
  1. The Vikings have to make a significant decision regarding their quarterback situation due to Kirk Cousins' injury.
  2. The team's timeline for competing affects the direction of their decision - whether to focus on the present or the future.
  3. There are a variety of options available for the Vikings, including potentially trading for another QB or giving rookie Jaren Hall a chance.