The hottest Portfolio strategy Substack posts right now

Nobody truly knows what the market will do; even famous investors and big firms are just making educated guesses.
Better investors succeed through a rigorous process — disciplined research, solid risk controls, and the honesty to admit and cut losses when they’re wrong.
Accept that investing is probabilistic: don’t trust confident guarantees, do your own homework, and focus on managing downside while letting winners run.

Buying beaten-down public SaaS stocks right now is risky because industry-wide malaise can persist and you can get whipsawed trying to catch falling knives.
Expect more dispersion: the market will keep punishing losers while only labeling survivors as winners in hindsight, so the real edge is identifying which companies will survive in real time.
Many software firms won't die but will become low-growth 'zombies', so be selective and favor businesses that can genuinely transition to and benefit from AI, using a disciplined checklist to rank longs and shorts.

The concept of an opportunity cost stock is important in investing for making trade offs and decisions.
Buffett's choice of Wells Fargo as his opportunity cost stock highlights the importance of timeless industries and consistent returns.
Flexibility and adaptability are crucial in managing opportunity cost stocks as circumstances and information change.

Market-cap weighted index funds invest more in larger companies, which can mean more stability but also more risk if those big companies do poorly.
Equal-weighted index funds treat all companies the same, offering more diversification and potential for growth, but they can be more volatile and expensive to manage.
Choosing between these two types of funds depends on your comfort with risk, your investment goals, and how you think the market will perform in the future.

True mispricings tend to come from special situations caused by forced selling or neglect, like spin-offs, post-bankruptcy stocks, or sidelined divisions. These situations often let patient investors buy assets the market is overlooking.
Popular, hyped stocks—including hot-sector names, IPOs, and momentum-driven picks—are more driven by sentiment than fundamentals and are less likely to offer reliable bargains. They often create FOMO and poor entry points for long-term investors.
Stick to your circle of competence and hunt for neglected or forced-sale opportunities, using careful research and tools such as long-dated options to capture asymmetric upside with limited downside. Sharing ideas and learning from others can help you find and refine these opportunities.

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The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

Active investing is struggling because most active investors don't perform better than passive options. This is mainly due to high fees and transaction costs that eat into returns.
Many active investors lack a clear investment philosophy, causing them to jump between strategies instead of sticking to one approach. This inconsistency leads to poor performance.
To succeed in active investing, it's important to have a strong investment philosophy and find a unique edge that sets you apart from others in the market.

Don't assume a stock is a good deal just because it's below book value. You need to do more research to understand its real worth today.
Graham's ideas are about more than just numbers; you should also think about the quality of the business and its future potential.
Comparing companies can be helpful, but be careful—there are limitations and factors that can skew your understanding of their true value.

A new method for calculating Greeks in finance has been introduced, which makes it faster and keeps accuracy high. This will help in managing options better.
There is a new model-free approach for selecting portfolios that uses generative diffusion models and policy gradients. It could change how people manage their investments.
This week’s content represents the 100th edition, highlighting a milestone in sharing insights on machine learning in finance. It shows the growth and importance of this field.

Illiquidity affects all stocks, not just a few, which can lead to challenges in investment decisions. It's important to understand that even seemingly liquid markets can experience periods of illiquidity.
When deciding how to allocate assets, it's crucial to consider the potential underestimation of risks associated with illiquid assets. Ignoring this can result in poor investment choices.
Investors should tailor their asset allocation based on their need for liquidity. Those who prefer more liquidity might focus on large, stable assets, while others might benefit from investing in less liquid ones.