The hottest Economic Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Stocks I'm Watching As The Market Sells Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. The stock market has recently seen a drop, and many analysts still insist it's always a good time to buy, regardless of prices. This seems unrealistic, especially when many factors suggest selling might be a better option.
  2. Big companies like Apple and Amazon significantly influence the stock market, while retail investors are often trading options instead of actual stocks. This creates a speculative environment where many aren't looking for real value.
  3. Despite market challenges, there are still opportunities to find valuable investments that aren't being highlighted in mainstream financial media. It's important to look for these hidden gems amid all the noise.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Housing Affordability
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Venture Capital Unbundled

Investing 101 • 235 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Venture Capital Investment Strategies Market Trends Business Models Economic Analysis
  1. Venture capital is shifting away from big brands and focusing more on individual investors. People want to work with specific individuals who they feel are genuine and relatable.
  2. Many investors are moving around to find better opportunities or roles, but this trend is also about the changing business model in venture capital. Investors are looking for ways to adapt and thrive in a new landscape.
  3. The term 'venture capital' is becoming less useful as it tries to cover many different investment strategies. There is a need for diverse approaches and voices in building startups, which is exciting and refreshing.

Wading Into The HB1 Visa Controversy

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Economic Analysis Law enforcement Labor Market Social Issues
  1. There's a lot of misunderstanding about immigration, especially regarding the HB1 visa. Instead of emotions, we need to look at data to create better immigration policies.
  2. Charging for immigration can fix many issues. If people pay to immigrate, they may invest more in their new country and assimilate faster.
  3. High-skilled immigrants can benefit America without causing social costs. By removing political influence from the immigration process, we can make it work better for everyone.
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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Forecasting Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

❄️ 🎰 Investir dans un monopole monégasque ? Où acheter les ETF Bitcoin ?

Snowball • 1965 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Business News Stock Market Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in a Monaco monopoly like SBM can be interesting due to its history and unique position.
  2. The French government agency SISSE has the power to block international investors; exploring its role can be informative.
  3. The SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs marked a significant moment, raising questions about the future of decentralized finance and traditional finance.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 11 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Trends Economic Analysis Bonds
  1. Market corrections are normal and can be healthy for long-term growth. It's important to own a mix of investments and stay calm during downturns.
  2. After a drop in the stock market, like with the S&P 500, there's often a bounce back, with strong average returns in the months that follow.
  3. Media companies are struggling with changes in viewer habits, which may lead to consolidations in the industry. This means fewer players but potentially stronger companies in the long run.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Portfolio Management Personal Finance Economic Analysis
  1. A move was made in the portfolio that is worth sharing. It's an important update that could impact future decisions.
  2. The information shared in this post is exclusive to paid subscribers, so it's intended for those who support the content.
  3. Engaging with updates like this can help subscribers stay informed about new developments in the portfolio.

Data Update 2: A Stock Comeback - Winning the expectations game!

Musings on Markets • 919 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Market Trends Earnings Reports
  1. The stock market showed a strong comeback in 2023, recovering most losses from the previous year. However, the recovery was uneven, with a few big companies driving much of the growth.
  2. Investor expectations have shifted positively for 2024, with forecasts indicating controlled inflation and a soft landing for the economy. But, this positive sentiment poses challenges for equity investors as they must meet heightened expectations.
  3. Current stock valuations suggest that the market may be slightly overvalued. Investors should be cautious and consider potential risks when making decisions, as the future remains uncertain.

Catch Me If You Can

Net Interest • 15 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Asset management Economic Analysis Global Markets
  1. The US stock market has significantly outperformed Europe over the last 15 years, with US stocks providing much higher returns compared to European stocks.
  2. European companies lag behind in major tech innovation, lacking equivalents to successful US companies like Amazon and Google, which has contributed to their slower growth.
  3. Recently, there has been a shift in sentiment among investors towards Europe, with increased interest and consolidation in the asset management industry, indicating potential for future growth.

All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 09 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Financial News
  1. Coffee stocks might help protect against inflation, according to investor Bob Iaccino. He believes that investing in commodities like coffee is a smart move right now.
  2. Tesla has divided opinions among investors and analysts, making it a complicated stock to assess. While some see great potential in Tesla's future, many analysts remain cautious.
  3. Nvidia's rapid rise in market value highlights the growing importance of AI technology. Analysts suggest sticking with major players like Nvidia and AMD as they are likely to keep gaining traction.

Post "Sell The News" Market Update

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Cryptocurrency Economic Analysis Financial forecasting
  1. Selling Bitcoin soon after a major news event might be smart, as prices often peak at these moments. It's a common strategy to buy when news is expected and sell when it's delivered.
  2. Consider converting your Bitcoin into dollars or stablecoins if you anticipate a price drop. That's a way to secure your profits.
  3. Keep an eye on market updates and predictions, as they can help inform your trading decisions. Staying informed is crucial in the fast-moving crypto space.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 26 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Companies with high profit margins are doing really well. For example, Nvidia has a gross profit margin of 78%, which is impressive compared to others like Amazon and Apple.
  2. There are good opportunities in the bond market now. After a long time, stocks aren't the only option for investors looking for decent returns.
  3. Amazon is expected to overtake Walmart in sales next year. With Amazon's growth in cloud services, it's on track for $711 billion in revenue, compared to Walmart's $703 billion.

Chartbook: Whither China? Part II - Posen v. Pettis or "authoritarian impasse" v. "structural dead-end"

Chartbook • 1859 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics China Global Trade Economic Analysis
  1. Different interpretations exist regarding China's economic problems, with one side emphasizing authoritarian impasse and the other focusing on structural issues.
  2. The authoritarian impasse view highlights an inevitable downfall of authoritarian regimes, while the structural analysis points to socio-economic inequality as the root cause of China's economic challenges.
  3. The solutions proposed by each side differ, with one advocating for regime change and the other suggesting a shift towards a more inclusive growth model.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic Analysis Commodities
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

Investing Is Like Riding A Roller Coaster

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. Investing can be unpredictable, much like a roller coaster ride. You have to be prepared for ups and downs in the market.
  2. Recent years have felt calm for investors, similar to a lazy river ride, but things can change unexpectedly in the future.
  3. No one really knows what will happen in the market next, so it's important to stay cautious and ready for surprises.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Financial planning
  1. The author is identifying stocks to watch for 2025 based on market trends. This can help investors focus on specific opportunities in the stock market.
  2. In the past year, the stocks chosen performed well but not as well as the overall market, particularly the biggest tech companies.
  3. This post offers insights for paid subscribers, suggesting it provides detailed analysis and guidance for making investment decisions.

Come Hell Or Hyperinflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Financial Risks Stock Market
  1. The stock market currently seems to be very overvalued, which is raising concerns about its stability. Investors might want to be cautious as prices continue to rise unexpectedly.
  2. As we approach 2025, it's important for investors to reflect on their strategies and consider potential future risks. Making informed decisions now could be crucial.
  3. The ongoing growth in the market may lead to a situation where investors aren't truly aware of the risks involved. It's a good time to question whether the current trends are sustainable.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Can monetary policies inflate a stock market bubble?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic Analysis Stock Market
  1. Easy money policies from central banks can create bubbles in the stock market. When interest rates are low for a long time, investors tend to take more risks.
  2. Looking at historical events, many market crashes followed a time of low interest rates. It shows that keeping rates low can lead to excessive speculation.
  3. Currently, the US stock market is believed to be slightly overvalued, but not in a bubble. Some analysts think markets are around 10% to 20% above fair value right now.

Wartime vs Peacetime Markets

DeFi Education • 1678 implied HN points • 13 May 22
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Wartime markets involve high uncertainty and crisis, while peacetime markets are steadier and more stable. Investors often react differently in these two types of markets.
  2. In wartime markets, risk and volatility increase, leading to caution in investment strategies. People may prioritize safety over growth during uncertain times.
  3. Peacetime markets typically see growth and optimism, making it easier for tech and other sectors to thrive. Investors tend to take more risks when the market conditions are favorable.

It's Always Darkest Before Dawn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis Portfolio strategy
  1. The Fed can't stop a bear market from happening when stock prices are extremely high. This means that even with their efforts, a market drop could still occur.
  2. Sometimes it's not worth trying to understand why a strategy failed. It's better to acknowledge it and move on rather than clinging to a losing bet.
  3. Hedge fund managers often write letters during tough times, but many don't take responsibility for their mistakes. It's refreshing when someone admits to being wrong without making excuses.

BS-TBS News Interviews Me On Japan's EV Problem

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💼 Business Automotive Innovation Economic Analysis Market Strategy
  1. Japanese automakers are resistant to adopting Electric Vehicles (EVs), leading to a loss in sales and risk of falling behind other countries like China.
  2. Successful companies can struggle to adapt to changing times, similar to how the Detroit Big Three faced challenges in the 1970s-80s.
  3. Japan's automakers need to prioritize entering the EV market successfully before exploring other options like hydrogen fuel cells. Shifting to Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) is crucial for future competitiveness.

BlackRock’s Barbell

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Asset management Market Trends Economic Analysis Business strategy
  1. Warren Buffett believes that being both a businessman and an investor is beneficial. Learning from each role can help improve performance in the other.
  2. Many investment firms, like Schroders and Pimco, struggle when they focus too much on one area and lack diversification. These issues can hurt their profits and reputation.
  3. BlackRock, the largest asset manager, successfully mixes passive and alternative investments. They are moving into higher-margin areas to boost profitability and adapt to market changes.

Data Update 5 for 2023: Pathways to Profitability

Musings on Markets • 439 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💰 Finance Profitability Investments Market Trends Economic Analysis Capital Structure
  1. A company's main goal is to make money, not just grow. Even businesses that do good need to be profitable to survive.
  2. Profit margins differ across industries and countries. Some sectors, like tech or energy, often show higher profits, while retail and airlines typically struggle.
  3. It's important for companies to earn more than their costs of capital. Many businesses are failing to meet this goal, meaning they need to rethink their financial strategies.

Let's talk about Tesla

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💼 Business Investing Market Trends Earnings Reports Economic Analysis Corporate News
  1. Tesla's recent earnings report led to a big jump in their stock price, showing strong investor confidence.
  2. The company added over $100 billion to its market value, which shows just how much investors believe in Tesla's growth.
  3. Understanding why Tesla is thriving right now can help people see what makes companies successful in the EV market.

What happens to stocks after an inflation shock?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Analysis Risk management Market Trends
  1. Stocks usually drop about 4% in real value after a sudden inflation shock. This happens because investors get worried about future profits.
  2. Not all companies respond the same way to inflation. Companies with high profit margins can handle inflation better than those with lower margins.
  3. To prepare for inflation shocks, it's smart to focus on companies that have high markups and strong cash flow. These companies are generally more resilient.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Dividends
  1. Traders are worried about the stock market because they expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. However, some experts believe the economy is stable enough for stocks to grow without rate cuts.
  2. Some major tech stocks, known as the 'Magnificent 7', are currently valued lower compared to their past. This suggests they might be a good buy compared to their earnings.
  3. Many companies are likely to increase their dividends significantly in the next few years. Investors might want to look at these dividend-growers for better returns.

March Payroll Preview

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 98 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
💰 Finance Employment Labor Market Payroll Small business Economic Analysis
  1. The strong headline payroll gains in January and February may be misleading, as demand for labor is slowing.
  2. There are concerns about the labor market catching up due to manufacturing and housing contractions, slowing services demand, and potential issues with small business employment measurement.
  3. The consistency in patterns shown by ADP and NFIB reports compared to the BLS model raises skepticism about the strength in headline payrolls for January and February.

Stock Talk

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stocks Economic Analysis Wealth Management
  1. Berkshire Hathaway has $167.6 billion in cash but is finding it hard to make deals because prices are high. Higher interest rates are easing some buying pressure though.
  2. Intuitive Machines recently had a successful moon landing, causing its stock to go up. Analysts think it might rise even more as it finds its footing in the market.
  3. Nvidia is doing really well, and analysts believe Microsoft and Apple could reach a combined market cap of $4 trillion soon, due to their strong focus on AI.

Kishida May Raise Corporate Taxes, Part II

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 30 Nov 22
🌍 World Politics Tax policy Government spending Defense Public Opinion Economic Analysis
  1. The Kishida administration is considering raising corporate taxes to double defense spending, which could impact pro-entrepreneur tax breaks.
  2. There is uncertainty around how different government entities, like METI and the Prime Minister's Office, will negotiate on tax policies amidst concerns and objectives.
  3. Japanese corporations have a significant surplus in cash and securities, leading to questions about the necessity and use of low taxes and potential changes in government deficits.