The hottest Economic Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Forecasting Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

❄️ 🎰 Investir dans un monopole monégasque ? Où acheter les ETF Bitcoin ?

Snowball • 1965 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Business News Stock Market Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in a Monaco monopoly like SBM can be interesting due to its history and unique position.
  2. The French government agency SISSE has the power to block international investors; exploring its role can be informative.
  3. The SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs marked a significant moment, raising questions about the future of decentralized finance and traditional finance.

Chartbook: Whither China? Part II - Posen v. Pettis or "authoritarian impasse" v. "structural dead-end"

Chartbook • 1859 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics China Global Trade Economic Analysis
  1. Different interpretations exist regarding China's economic problems, with one side emphasizing authoritarian impasse and the other focusing on structural issues.
  2. The authoritarian impasse view highlights an inevitable downfall of authoritarian regimes, while the structural analysis points to socio-economic inequality as the root cause of China's economic challenges.
  3. The solutions proposed by each side differ, with one advocating for regime change and the other suggesting a shift towards a more inclusive growth model.
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January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Inflation Federal Reserve
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Housing Market Economic Analysis
  1. Powell's approach to monetary policy is based on conventional models, which may not fully address current economic issues.
  2. There is a concern that inflation is settling above the 2% target due to trends in goods and services.
  3. Housing supply issues contribute to 'inflation' and can be misleading when analyzing monetary policy impacts.

China's Premier just consulted these economists. What's their view on the economy?

Pekingnology • 67 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics China Economic Analysis Fiscal policy
  1. Economists discussed the challenges in China's economy and emphasized the need for strong fiscal and monetary policies with institutional reforms.
  2. There is a call for active participation in global digital economic and trade agreements, establishment of open capital markets, and alignment with international provisions.
  3. Encouraging innovation in the financial market requires a tolerant approach to failure, role of long-term institutional investors, less frequent information disclosure, open capital markets, and stable macro policy orientation.

March Payroll Preview

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 98 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
💰 Finance Employment Labor Market Small business Economic Analysis
  1. The strong headline payroll gains in January and February may be misleading, as demand for labor is slowing.
  2. There are concerns about the labor market catching up due to manufacturing and housing contractions, slowing services demand, and potential issues with small business employment measurement.
  3. The consistency in patterns shown by ADP and NFIB reports compared to the BLS model raises skepticism about the strength in headline payrolls for January and February.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

What was the Tech-cession?

Apricitas Economics • 48 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💼 Business Tech industry Economic Analysis Employment Trends Media influence
  1. Tech layoffs have significantly reduced and share prices of major tech companies have rebounded, indicating a positive shift in the industry
  2. Although tech-sector job growth has slowed, overall employment in the industry remains high compared to pre-pandemic levels
  3. The tech-cession led to a significant decline in compensation which impacted the broader economy, especially in high-tech areas like California

Testing the Vibes Hypothesis

Gideon's Substack • 14 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Public Perception Demographics Economic Analysis Political polarization
  1. A New York Times poll revealed a disconnect between people's perception of the economy and the actual economic data.
  2. Biden voters, especially those under 45, have a more negative perception of the economy compared to older voters.
  3. Possible explanations for the perception divide include demographics, housing costs, rising expectations, and political polarization.

Market Power in Housing Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 2 HN points • 21 Feb 24
💼 Business Market Power Economic Analysis
  1. There is a widely held notion that the homebuilding industry may have oligopolistic power, potentially stemming from a misdiagnosis of the 2008 crisis.
  2. US home construction markets have been experiencing unusual behavior, with demand exceeding supply capacity, builders selling incomplete homes while pushing input prices higher, showing signs not typical of an oligopoly.
  3. Blaming corporations and outsiders for housing issues may perpetuate deep-seated prejudices and prevent solving communal problems effectively.

How the Banking System Changed Post-SVB

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Banking System Economic Analysis Financial Institutions Risk management Monetary Policy
  1. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the American banking industry is adapting by relying less on uninsured deposits and more on alternative funding methods like borrowings.
  2. Deposits have restabilized post-SVB crisis, but banks are facing challenges with tight lending standards due to renewed economic pessimism and liquidity concerns.
  3. Banks are cautiously navigating post-SVB crisis by reducing reliance on uninsured deposits, managing securities losses, and addressing liquidity worries amid tighter monetary policy.

Office to Residential Conversions

Arpitrage • 1 HN point • 05 Nov 23
💼 Business Real Estate Urban Development Government Policy Economic Analysis Environmental Impact
  1. Cities are considering converting older office buildings to residential spaces to address urban challenges like reduced foot traffic, high carbon emissions, and housing affordability.
  2. Local and federal policymakers play vital roles in facilitating these office to residential conversions through regulatory changes, property tax relief, and financial incentives.
  3. Conversions may face challenges due to interest rate shifts, building constraints, and alternative real estate uses, but proactive measures can help make them financially viable.

Breaking Byzantine Fault Tolerance

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Blockchain Cryptocurrency Network Security Economic Analysis Market Trends
  1. The Total Cost to Attack (TCA) metric introduced in the research is a valuable tool for assessing the economic viability of potential threats to Bitcoin and Ethereum networks.
  2. Analyzing the economics of potential attacks on blockchain networks highlights significant economic disincentives for attackers, with the costs to compromise Bitcoin ranging from $5B to $20B and Ethereum's cost estimated around $34 billion, proving to be prohibitively high.
  3. The study emphasizes the security mechanisms of major blockchain networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a promising future for the cryptocurrency industry amidst market growth.