The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

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Glyphosate: A story of science, risk, and nuance

Your Local Epidemiologist • 1478 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Glyphosate is the world’s most used herbicide, and whether it is harmful depends on the dose and how much someone is actually exposed to.
  2. The science is mixed: very high doses cause cancer in animals, some human studies link heavy occupational exposure to higher risks (including signals for non‑Hodgkin lymphoma), but typical consumer exposures are much lower and the overall population risk remains uncertain.
  3. For everyday life, food residues are generally tiny and not a reason to panic, but farm workers and people living near sprayed fields face higher exposures and should use protective gear and community measures like buffer zones.

What are the Influenza Vaccine Risks?

Who is Robert Malone • 10 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. Vaccine risks and benefits are not the same for everyone — they vary a lot by age, vaccine formulation, whether other shots are given at the same visit, and the type of flu season; older and high‑risk people get clear net benefit while healthy younger adults and some children often see much smaller gains.
  2. Serious adverse events are rare but real: anaphylaxis occurs on the order of 1.35–1.6 cases per million doses, Guillain‑Barré syndrome about 1–2 per million, and febrile seizures are measurably increased in young children, especially when the flu shot is co‑administered with PCV13 and DTaP (these seizures are usually brief and benign).
  3. Policy and communication should reflect the nuance and data limits — NNV versus NNH calculations strongly favor vaccination for older adults but are less decisive for low‑risk groups, surveillance systems have known biases, and one‑size‑fits‑all mandates or generic counseling miss important individual considerations.

The Center for the Alignment of AI Alignment Centers is pivoting to reportless reporting

12challenges • 599 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. They found almost nobody reads their long research reports, so they're switching to much shorter, blunt communications instead of full reports.
  2. They plan to hide or destroy sensitive findings rather than publish them. Public messaging will emphasize optimistic, safe-sounding narratives instead of troubling truths.
  3. Publishing safety research can backfire and make things worse, so they're moving toward discrete, non-public actions and private measures instead of public reports.

H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Astral Codex Ten • 27324 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. H5N1 bird flu started in birds but can spread to other animals and possibly humans. There are concerns about it becoming a bigger threat as it mutates.
  2. Currently, experts estimate a 5% chance of H5N1 causing a human pandemic in the next year, but it could rise to 50% over the next 20 years.
  3. If H5N1 does become a pandemic, most forecasts suggest it won't be as deadly as the Spanish flu, with risks ranging from normal flu severity to several times worse.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.
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Can we use alpha particle exposures to falsify LNT?

Gordian Knot News • 124 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Observed human data show a clear dose-rate effect: acute high doses increase cancer around 100–300 mSv, while chronic exposures below about 20 mSv/day have not reliably produced cancer even at cumulative doses above 100,000 mSv, which contradicts a simple LNT prediction.
  2. Per unit energy absorbed, radiation produces similar numbers of double strand breaks because damage mainly comes from ROS, but alpha particles deposit energy very locally, creating clustered DSBs that are much more likely to misrepair and cause cancer, so alpha exposures are a strong test of dose–response.
  3. Cancer risk depends on misrepair of closely spaced DSBs and on DNA repair dynamics, so linear damage plus proportional repair does not imply a linear dose–response; models and regulation need to account for dose rate and spatial clustering rather than relying solely on cumulative dose.

The Gordian Knot Group's Twin Blessing Course

Gordian Knot News • 146 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Risk Assessment
  1. Radiation harm depends on how fast damage happens relative to the body's repair systems, so the full dose‑rate profile matters more than total dose or a simple average rate.
  2. Nuclear fission is extremely energy‑dense and can provide very cheap, low‑carbon power, but fear‑driven regulation based on the linear no‑threshold idea has inflated costs and blocked that potential.
  3. Proposed reforms are concrete: adopt a dose‑rate‑aware Sigmoid No Threshold model and restructure regulation and liability to balance benefits and risks, and manage spent fuel with short pool storage, dry casks, reprocessing for breeder material, and vitrification of leftovers instead of deep geologic disposal.

Staring At The Tsunami

¡Do Not Panic! • 1788 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Unrealistic optimism can lead to underestimating personal risk and overestimating favorable outcomes.
  2. Our brains may fail to update perceptions when faced with immediate, observable realities, leading to a freeze response.
  3. Depression and neurodiversity may result in a more accurate assessment of risk, providing survival advantages.

Vulnerability Exploitation in the Wild

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) helps predict how likely a software vulnerability is to be exploited. It provides a score, so organizations can focus on the vulnerabilities that really matter.
  2. Most vulnerabilities that are reported, about 94%, aren’t even exploited in real life. This means organizations waste a lot of resources on vulnerabilities that pose no threat, highlighting the importance of focusing on the ones that are actually exploited.
  3. The EPSS tool works better than older systems like the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). It helps organizations prioritize their efforts because it brings more efficiency in vulnerability management.

📈 Copart

Compounding Quality • 727 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Copart is a successful company with a remarkable growth history.
  2. The company's management, led by Willis Johnson and Jay Adair, has been capable and invested in the company's success.
  3. Copart has a sustainable competitive advantage through network effects and economies of scale.

The Food Safety Impact of Food Fraud: What 795 Food Fraud Cases Tell Us About Real Risk

The Rotten Apple • 42 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
🍲 Food & Drink Risk Assessment
  1. Food fraud creates food safety risks. New research has measured how often fraud incidents also pose safety hazards by analyzing 795 cases.
  2. Not all fraud is equally dangerous: the study categorizes which types of fraud, which hazards, and which foods are most likely to cause safety problems.
  3. The findings give practical guidance for industry to prioritize monitoring and prevention so resources target the fraud types and food products that pose the biggest safety risk.

Why Policy Causality Matters

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1442 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Risk Assessment
  1. Understanding policy causality is crucial for making effective decisions, especially in contexts like disaster risk reduction. It's important to know how actions lead to specific outcomes.
  2. Distinguishing between different types of causality, like proximal and distal, helps identify what actions can prevent future disasters. Not all causes can be controlled, but some can be influenced through policy.
  3. Communicating about causality can be tricky because narratives and models may mislead people. It's key to ground discussions in solid evidence to avoid bad policy choices.

Polygenic Risk Scores: Ready for Prime Time?

Ground Truths • 3980 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Polygenic risk scores can provide valuable information on high genetic risk for diseases like heart disease and cancer, beyond traditional clinical risk factors.
  2. The use of polygenic risk scores is advancing thanks to efforts like the eMERGE consortium, incorporating multi-ancestry data and rigorous validation.
  3. Actionable polygenic risk scores have the potential to reduce health disparities and enhance preventive strategies in medical practice.

The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 5745 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
🏥 Health Politics Risk Assessment
  1. The most authoritative estimate shows masks do not significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19 or other respiratory illnesses.
  2. Cochrane, a respected health organization, conducted a review concluding that all types of face coverings probably make little or no difference in reducing respiratory illness spread.
  3. The CDC and public health officials continue to recommend masks despite lack of strong evidence, ignoring downsides like social, psychological, and medical problems.

Five Steps for Making Difficult Decisions

Are You Okay? • 758 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Life involves trade-offs, especially during situations like COVID where risks are present. Decisions need to balance the risk of doing something versus the risk of not doing it.
  2. COVID is here to stay, and managing risks associated with it requires breaking down decisions into assessing the risks and benefits of actions.
  3. When making difficult decisions involving health, it's vital to define personal values, understand facts, and weigh the risks of action versus inaction.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science?

Marcus on AI • 4663 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Microsoft and OpenAI are rolling out powerful yet unreliable AI systems with undisclosed mechanisms and data.
  2. The lack of transparency in AI development poses risks to society and calls for public oversight.
  3. Scientists and researchers demand more openness in the development of AI technologies.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

Friday Q&A: silent spread of COVID; full body MRI; Ambien risks; & quantifying risk

Are You Okay? • 599 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Some studies suggest that asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 may have low viral infectivity, meaning they are less likely to spread the virus.
  2. Having a full-body MRI has benefits like early cancer detection, but it may not always be necessary for everyone and should be evaluated based on individual health considerations.
  3. Ensure to stay informed about current health topics and consult healthcare professionals for personalized advice and guidance.

The Shadow Cash Market: Part I

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. The U.S. Treasury market is being improved to handle more debt while keeping yields low. This is important for preventing problems in the financial system.
  2. There are new efforts to make the Treasury market more stable and reliable, like easing rules for hedge funds. These steps help ensure that investors can buy and sell easily.
  3. A new part of the market, called the Shadow Cash Market, is helping to provide extra cash flow. However, this hidden area might also have risks that could affect major financial players in the future.

Friday Q&A: answering your COVID questions

Are You Okay? • 539 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. Public health experts suggest waiting 6 months after either a vaccine dose or infection to get a COVID booster.
  2. Fit-tested masks may only protect against exposure for a couple of hours; staying away from infected individuals while prioritizing sleep, good food, exercise, and outdoor time are key.
  3. For vulnerable family members, especially those with autoimmune diseases or elderly, balancing social interactions and precautions remains a challenge despite vaccinations and boosters.

What do I know about Artificial Intelligence?

The Joyous Struggle • 395 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Many people have mixed feelings about technology, especially artificial intelligence, due to fear of missing out, lack of understanding, and a sense of exclusion from the tech world.
  2. The author shares a sense of 'tech incredulity' toward AI, questioning its potential impact, limitations, and whether it truly warrants the level of concern it receives.
  3. Despite not having expert knowledge, the author acknowledges a responsibility to learn more about AI, to demystify the complexities surrounding it, and to understand the risks, potential, and ethical implications better.

Psychology Links, 2/5/2025

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🔬 Science Risk Assessment
  1. Humans tend to overreact to potential dangers. It's safer for our brains to think a harmless stick is a snake than to miss a real snake and get hurt.
  2. We often make decisions using shortcuts instead of thinking things through fully. This can lead to big mistakes because our brain swaps complicated questions for simpler ones quickly and without us noticing.
  3. Gossip plays a big role in how we connect with others. It helps us understand people's actions and build trust, showing how important social relationships are in our lives.

Regulatory Update: Recent Developments Impacting DeFi

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
🔮 Crypto Risk Assessment
  1. Recent SEC actions indicate a tough regulation for crypto exchanges in the US. Companies like Coinbase and Bittrex are facing serious legal challenges for not complying with registration rules.
  2. John Reed Stark, a former SEC official, predicts that many crypto exchanges may need to shut down or change how they operate in the US.
  3. Regulations are becoming a big deal in the crypto industry, and companies will have to work hard to comply with new rules to stay in business.

Life in a Kingdom of Dangerous Magic

The Generalist • 2161 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Regulating artificial intelligence is a significant challenge due to the speed and structure of AI technology.
  2. There is no perfect solution to regulating artificial intelligence; each approach has its flaws and consequences.
  3. To address the risks of AI, there is a need for a more flexible form of decision-making and governance.

The 78 per cent solution

Logging the World • 378 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment
  1. A recent study found heart abnormalities in 78 out of 100 people who recovered from COVID within 2-3 months, but this data comes from a sample of the sickest patients which might not be representative of the general population
  2. The Sports Illustrated claim of 78% heart abnormalities risk may not be applicable to current conditions due to the study predating vaccines and omicron, raising concerns about drawing conclusions from outdated research
  3. It's crucial to consider the context and representative sample when interpreting statistics, like looking at more recent data from sources like the UK Office for National Statistics to understand the risks of Long COVID

The DBIR is entering its Vulnerability Era

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 03 May 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Vulnerability exploitation is growing rapidly, with a 180% increase reported. This means more cyber attackers are taking advantage of software weaknesses.
  2. Organizations are struggling to keep up with vulnerability management. Simply telling them to patch faster isn't enough; they need better strategies to reduce the number of vulnerabilities.
  3. The push for 'Secure-by-Design' software is getting stronger. This approach encourages companies to take responsibility for their products' security, making them safer for everyone.

A Look at the UK's National Cyber Security Centre's Vulnerability Management Guidance

Resilient Cyber • 119 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. Organizations should have a clear policy to automatically apply software updates. This helps close the gap between when vulnerabilities are identified and when they are fixed, making it harder for bad actors to exploit them.
  2. Knowing what assets you own and who is responsible for them is crucial. Without this information, vulnerabilities could go unaddressed, leading to increased security risks.
  3. The business should take ownership of the risks related to vulnerabilities, not just the security team. It’s important for leadership to understand and document the decisions regarding risks associated with remediation.

Leveraging an AI Security Framework

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The Databricks AI Security Framework (DASF) helps identify and manage risks in AI systems. It's important for security experts and AI developers to know how to keep AI safe while still allowing innovation.
  2. Data operations have the highest number of security risks, like data poisoning and poor access controls. If the raw data is compromised, it can affect the entire AI system.
  3. Different stages of AI development, like model training and deployment, have unique risks to watch for, such as model theft and prompt injection attacks. Understanding these risks helps keep AI applications secure.

Sitting On a Haystack of Digital Needles

Resilient Cyber • 179 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. The number of software vulnerabilities is growing really fast, and it's hard for organizations to keep up. Right now, a lot of vulnerabilities get reported, but companies can only fix a small fraction of them each month.
  2. There's a big push for making software safer from the start, so users aren't stuck dealing with problems created by developers. This idea, called 'Secure-by-Design,' aims to shift the responsibility for security onto the companies making the software.
  3. Many organizations are feeling overwhelmed trying to patch vulnerabilities. If they stop, they risk being exploited by attackers, making it feel like a never-ending struggle to stay secure.

Cathy reads If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies

Sex and the State • 24 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Risk Assessment
  1. I’m not convinced advanced AI will definitely kill everyone and worry that trying to stop it outright could forfeit huge potential benefits like curing disease and ending scarcity.
  2. Media and tech handling of AI is broken: coverage is shallow and companies are building capabilities faster than they understand them, so better journalism and oversight are needed.
  3. Proposals for a global pause or bans on AI are vague and problematic — it’s unclear who would write or enforce such rules, how to define forbidden "improvements," or whether the push for prohibition is driven by political or financial interests.

Tariff design and LCOE

Jérôme à Paris • 267 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Contracts for Difference (CfDs) let wind projects offer lower prices compared to Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This is because CfDs reduce the perceived risk for lenders.
  2. Merchant projects that sell directly on the spot market are risky and harder to finance. Investors need to bet on high and unstable prices to make profits, which might not always work out.
  3. Using CfDs provides more price stability for consumers compared to relying solely on PPAs. This helps ensure lower and more predictable electricity costs over time.