The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Polygenic Risk Scores: Ready for Prime Time?

Ground Truths • 3980 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Genetics Risk Assessment Prevention Data Analysis
  1. Polygenic risk scores can provide valuable information on high genetic risk for diseases like heart disease and cancer, beyond traditional clinical risk factors.
  2. The use of polygenic risk scores is advancing thanks to efforts like the eMERGE consortium, incorporating multi-ancestry data and rigorous validation.
  3. Actionable polygenic risk scores have the potential to reduce health disparities and enhance preventive strategies in medical practice.

Governing Risky Pandemic Research

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 549 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🔬 Science Research Regulation Risk Assessment
  1. Experts can disagree on the risks and benefits of proposed research, impacting research sustainability and public trust.
  2. There are concerns about regulating research with pathogens due to potential risks and lack of consensus on what is considered risky.
  3. Suggestions for governing risky research include demonstrating clear research benefits, identifying alternative methods, preregistering research, indemnifying organizations, and implementing global norms.

On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models

AI Snake Oil • 398 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Societal Impact Risk Assessment Regulation
  1. The paper on the societal impact of open foundation models clarifies the discrepancy in claims about openness's societal effects, examines the benefits like transparency and empowering research, and proposes a risk evaluation framework for comparing risks of open vs. closed foundation models and existing technologies.
  2. The framework for risk assessment in the paper outlines steps like threat identification, evaluating existing risks and defenses, and determining the marginal risk of open foundation models. It aims to provide a structured approach to analyzing risks associated with open foundation models.
  3. By analyzing benefits, such as distribution of decision-making power, innovation, scientific research facilitation, and transparency, the paper sheds light on the advantages of open foundation models and offers recommendations for developers, researchers, regulators, and policymakers to navigate the landscape effectively.
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LNT is prudent.

Gordian Knot News • 205 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🔬 Science Radiation Regulation Risk Assessment Public Health Nuclear power
  1. Pursuing safety in a cost-effective way is crucial to prevent harm and save lives.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, while used for regulatory purposes, can come with enormous costs to humanity due to its over-conservatism.
  3. Focusing solely on minimizing radiation exposure without considering other costs may lead to unnecessary harm and consequences, such as deadly evacuations and ruined lives.

The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 5745 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Masks CDC Pandemic Risk Assessment
  1. The most authoritative estimate shows masks do not significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19 or other respiratory illnesses.
  2. Cochrane, a respected health organization, conducted a review concluding that all types of face coverings probably make little or no difference in reducing respiratory illness spread.
  3. The CDC and public health officials continue to recommend masks despite lack of strong evidence, ignoring downsides like social, psychological, and medical problems.

Intellectual Seat Belts

Investing 101 • 110 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💼 Business Investing Company Building Beliefs Ideas Risk Assessment
  1. People often use in-group thinking as an 'intellectual seat belt' to feel safe and avoid critically evaluating their beliefs.
  2. Being open to being wrong promotes the pursuit of truth, as it challenges existing beliefs and pressures ideas for improvement.
  3. Questioning mainstream beliefs and pursuing wrongness can reveal potential weaknesses, leading to a deeper understanding and pursuit of truth.

SpaceX's Texas Rocket is Going To Cause A Lot More Damage Than Anyone Thinks

ESG Hound • 3637 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
🔬 Science Space Exploration Environmental Impact Risk Assessment
  1. FAA granted SpaceX a license for the Starship orbital test, but the potential damage could be catastrophic.
  2. The noise levels from SpaceX's testing were higher than predicted, impacting the environment and wildlife.
  3. SpaceX's launch facility in Texas lacks essential safety features, raising concerns about the safety of the operation.

Staring At The Tsunami

¡Do Not Panic! • 1788 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🔬 Science Psychology Optimism Risk Assessment
  1. Unrealistic optimism can lead to underestimating personal risk and overestimating favorable outcomes.
  2. Our brains may fail to update perceptions when faced with immediate, observable realities, leading to a freeze response.
  3. Depression and neurodiversity may result in a more accurate assessment of risk, providing survival advantages.

Five Steps for Making Difficult Decisions

Are You Okay? • 758 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Mental health Self-care
  1. Life involves trade-offs, especially during situations like COVID where risks are present. Decisions need to balance the risk of doing something versus the risk of not doing it.
  2. COVID is here to stay, and managing risks associated with it requires breaking down decisions into assessing the risks and benefits of actions.
  3. When making difficult decisions involving health, it's vital to define personal values, understand facts, and weigh the risks of action versus inaction.

What do I know about Artificial Intelligence?

The Joyous Struggle • 395 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Ethics Risk Assessment Innovation Future implications
  1. Many people have mixed feelings about technology, especially artificial intelligence, due to fear of missing out, lack of understanding, and a sense of exclusion from the tech world.
  2. The author shares a sense of 'tech incredulity' toward AI, questioning its potential impact, limitations, and whether it truly warrants the level of concern it receives.
  3. Despite not having expert knowledge, the author acknowledges a responsibility to learn more about AI, to demystify the complexities surrounding it, and to understand the risks, potential, and ethical implications better.

Friday Q&A: silent spread of COVID; full body MRI; Ambien risks; & quantifying risk

Are You Okay? • 599 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Risk Assessment Symptoms Preventive Care
  1. Some studies suggest that asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 may have low viral infectivity, meaning they are less likely to spread the virus.
  2. Having a full-body MRI has benefits like early cancer detection, but it may not always be necessary for everyone and should be evaluated based on individual health considerations.
  3. Ensure to stay informed about current health topics and consult healthcare professionals for personalized advice and guidance.

On the FLI AI-Risk Open Letter

thezvi • 1517 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Ethics Political Response Risk Assessment
  1. The FLI AI-Risk Open Letter calls for a pause in training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, sparking mixed reactions.
  2. The letter combines short-term concerns with existential risks, suggesting high standards that might act as a de facto ban on AI development.
  3. Despite its flaws, the letter sets the stage for cooperation and lays the groundwork for future discussions around AI safety and regulation.

Friday Q&A: answering your COVID questions

Are You Okay? • 539 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID Prevention Risk Assessment Boosters Masks
  1. Public health experts suggest waiting 6 months after either a vaccine dose or infection to get a COVID booster.
  2. Fit-tested masks may only protect against exposure for a couple of hours; staying away from infected individuals while prioritizing sleep, good food, exercise, and outdoor time are key.
  3. For vulnerable family members, especially those with autoimmune diseases or elderly, balancing social interactions and precautions remains a challenge despite vaccinations and boosters.

The 78 per cent solution

Logging the World • 378 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Long Covid Risk Assessment
  1. A recent study found heart abnormalities in 78 out of 100 people who recovered from COVID within 2-3 months, but this data comes from a sample of the sickest patients which might not be representative of the general population
  2. The Sports Illustrated claim of 78% heart abnormalities risk may not be applicable to current conditions due to the study predating vaccines and omicron, raising concerns about drawing conclusions from outdated research
  3. It's crucial to consider the context and representative sample when interpreting statistics, like looking at more recent data from sources like the UK Office for National Statistics to understand the risks of Long COVID

URGENT: Giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behavior in their young, a new study shows

Unreported Truths • 48 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Pregnancy Autism Research Risk Assessment
  1. A study showed that giving mRNA Covid vaccines to pregnant rats caused brain changes and autism-like behaviors in their offspring.
  2. Pregnant women were excluded from the initial vaccine trials, but they have been strongly encouraged to get the shots due to Covid risks associated with pregnancy.
  3. Understanding the potential impact of vaccines on autism and brain changes in offspring would require extensive and costly research.

MercadoLibre, Inc Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 334 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Financial Performance Business Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. MercadoLibre (MELI) is a Latin American e-commerce giant with remarkable growth, experiencing over 4,000% return in 16 years since its IPO.
  2. MELI's success is driven by a strong ecosystem of online commerce, digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions.
  3. The company faces risks like regulatory changes, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition, but has growth opportunities in the unbanked market and logistics services.

What's Wrong With This Picture (Team Training Exercise)

The Rotten Apple • 10 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🍲 Food & Drink Food Safety Training Hygiene Risk Assessment Team Building
  1. The post discusses a team training exercise for front-line workers in food service to identify food safety issues.
  2. The activity aims to get team members thinking about food safety, engage in a risk assessment, and learn about food safety principles such as hygienic design and hand hygiene.
  3. The exercise involves showing an image of someone slicing bacon and asking team members to identify potential food safety problems, errors, or non-conformities.

205. Regulating AI: Is being proactive now the right first step?

Hardcore Software • 235 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Ethics Legislation Risk Assessment Innovation
  1. Debates exist on whether current AI developments pose new risks or just confirm existing concerns.
  2. Balancing precautionary measures with technological progress is challenging, especially when systems are inaccurate but advancing.
  3. There is a push for strict regulations to prevent AI harm, but some recommend proactive risk mitigation rather than outright bans.

What is nuclear's should-cost?

Gordian Knot News • 212 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🔬 Science Nuclear Energy Regulation Cost Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. Nuclear power can be more cost-effective than traditional sources like coal plants.
  2. Naive LCOE may not accurately represent the true cost of nuclear energy due to fluctuations in demand and the need for backup.
  3. Key challenges for nuclear power include regulatory risk, construction risk, and ensuring liability for unplanned outages and radiation releases.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

New Zealand OIA request reveals the COVID vaccines increased your risk of dying

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The New Zealand OIA request revealed that COVID vaccines were found to increase the risk of dying, instead of providing protection against COVID.
  2. The data released under OIA showed that vaccinated individuals experienced a significant increase in mortality during the COVID outbreak, contrary to what was expected.
  3. Mainstream epidemiologists have avoided analyzing the data that shows the vaccines increased the risk of dying from COVID, leading to a lack of public discussion and questioning.

FLASHPOINTS #10: A.I. risk for dummies (or, why we should worry less about climate change and more about killer algorithms)

The Ruffian • 196 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Future Tech Ethics Risk Assessment
  1. Many experts are concerned about the potential existential threat posed by artificial intelligence.
  2. The likelihood of AI catastrophe varies among AI researchers, with estimates ranging from 1% to 33%.
  3. AI has the potential to be a larger existential threat to humanity than climate change, as it may result in scenarios where human survival is at stake.

What should the UK’s £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce do?

Navigating AI Risks • 117 implied HN points • 17 Jul 23
🕹 Technology AI Policy Risk Assessment
  1. The UK's £100 Million Foundation Model Taskforce should develop a risk assessment methodology for extreme risks from AI
  2. The taskforce should demonstrate current and forecast near-term risks through risk scaling laws
  3. It's important for the taskforce to comprehensively assess the state-of-the-art open source large language model (LLM) for risks