The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

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H5N1: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Astral Codex Ten • 27324 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Epidemiology Infectious Disease Pandemic Preparedness Risk Assessment
  1. H5N1 bird flu started in birds but can spread to other animals and possibly humans. There are concerns about it becoming a bigger threat as it mutates.
  2. Currently, experts estimate a 5% chance of H5N1 causing a human pandemic in the next year, but it could rise to 50% over the next 20 years.
  3. If H5N1 does become a pandemic, most forecasts suggest it won't be as deadly as the Spanish flu, with risks ranging from normal flu severity to several times worse.

Why Policy Causality Matters

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1442 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Disaster Management Climate Policy Risk Assessment
  1. Understanding policy causality is crucial for making effective decisions, especially in contexts like disaster risk reduction. It's important to know how actions lead to specific outcomes.
  2. Distinguishing between different types of causality, like proximal and distal, helps identify what actions can prevent future disasters. Not all causes can be controlled, but some can be influenced through policy.
  3. Communicating about causality can be tricky because narratives and models may mislead people. It's key to ground discussions in solid evidence to avoid bad policy choices.

The latest round in the $2M debate

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Policy Debate Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The vaccines may have caused more COVID cases and deaths than they helped prevent. Data shows that vaccinated individuals had higher case rates during 2021 and 2022.
  2. Some studies suggest that vaccines may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes, like myocarditis and all-cause mortality, especially with certain brands.
  3. There is ongoing debate and skepticism surrounding vaccine safety, with some polls indicating that a significant number of people believe vaccines have contributed to deaths similar to COVID itself.

The Total Dose Cult

Gordian Knot News • 124 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🔬 Science Radiation Health Risk Assessment Nuclear Biology
  1. Total dose of radiation can be misleading. It's not just about how much radiation someone gets, but also how quickly they receive it.
  2. People exposed to radiation over a long time can have different health risks compared to those who are exposed quickly. The way their body processes radiation can vary.
  3. When discussing radiation harm, it's important to consider the rate at which people are exposed. This helps to get a clearer understanding of potential risks.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investing Market Analysis Economic Factors Global trends
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.
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Polygenic Risk Scores: Ready for Prime Time?

Ground Truths • 3980 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Genetics Risk Assessment Prevention Data Analysis
  1. Polygenic risk scores can provide valuable information on high genetic risk for diseases like heart disease and cancer, beyond traditional clinical risk factors.
  2. The use of polygenic risk scores is advancing thanks to efforts like the eMERGE consortium, incorporating multi-ancestry data and rigorous validation.
  3. Actionable polygenic risk scores have the potential to reduce health disparities and enhance preventive strategies in medical practice.

Why the NT in SNT?

Gordian Knot News • 95 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🔬 Science Radiation Medicine Health Risk Assessment Nuclear policy
  1. The term 'No Threshold' in radiation discussions is important because it highlights that there is always some risk from radiation exposure, even at low levels. It's a reminder that we can't completely eliminate risk, just like every time we leave our homes.
  2. The current thinking on radiation risk, called Linear No Threshold (LNT), suggests that even small doses are harmful. However, real-life examples, like workers who handled radium, challenge this belief and show that low doses may not cause significant harm.
  3. Critics of LNT often focus on proving a specific threshold for safety, but this can weaken their argument. The idea that there’s a threshold is seen as a tactic that allows LNT to persist, even though it might not hold up against real evidence.

The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 5745 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Masks CDC Pandemic Risk Assessment
  1. The most authoritative estimate shows masks do not significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19 or other respiratory illnesses.
  2. Cochrane, a respected health organization, conducted a review concluding that all types of face coverings probably make little or no difference in reducing respiratory illness spread.
  3. The CDC and public health officials continue to recommend masks despite lack of strong evidence, ignoring downsides like social, psychological, and medical problems.

Staring At The Tsunami

¡Do Not Panic! • 1788 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🔬 Science Psychology Optimism Risk Assessment
  1. Unrealistic optimism can lead to underestimating personal risk and overestimating favorable outcomes.
  2. Our brains may fail to update perceptions when faced with immediate, observable realities, leading to a freeze response.
  3. Depression and neurodiversity may result in a more accurate assessment of risk, providing survival advantages.

Avian Influenza: Updated Threat Assessment

Who is Robert Malone • 19 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Infectious Disease Political Response Media influence Risk Assessment
  1. The threat from Avian Influenza is considered low, similar to previous assessments. Recent cases mostly involve those working closely with infected animals.
  2. There is a concern about how fear and misinformation in the media can influence public perception of health threats. This can lead to unnecessary panic or government responses.
  3. California's state of emergency regarding bird flu may be influenced by interests in the state's testing and monitoring industry rather than actual health risks.

Vulnerability Exploitation in the Wild

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Analysis Software Development Vulnerability Management Risk Assessment
  1. The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) helps predict how likely a software vulnerability is to be exploited. It provides a score, so organizations can focus on the vulnerabilities that really matter.
  2. Most vulnerabilities that are reported, about 94%, aren’t even exploited in real life. This means organizations waste a lot of resources on vulnerabilities that pose no threat, highlighting the importance of focusing on the ones that are actually exploited.
  3. The EPSS tool works better than older systems like the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). It helps organizations prioritize their efforts because it brings more efficiency in vulnerability management.

SpaceX's Texas Rocket is Going To Cause A Lot More Damage Than Anyone Thinks

ESG Hound • 3637 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
🔬 Science Space Exploration Environmental Impact Wildlife Conservation Risk Assessment Regulatory Oversight
  1. FAA granted SpaceX a license for the Starship orbital test, but the potential damage could be catastrophic.
  2. The noise levels from SpaceX's testing were higher than predicted, impacting the environment and wildlife.
  3. SpaceX's launch facility in Texas lacks essential safety features, raising concerns about the safety of the operation.

Five Steps for Making Difficult Decisions

Are You Okay? • 758 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Mental health Self-care
  1. Life involves trade-offs, especially during situations like COVID where risks are present. Decisions need to balance the risk of doing something versus the risk of not doing it.
  2. COVID is here to stay, and managing risks associated with it requires breaking down decisions into assessing the risks and benefits of actions.
  3. When making difficult decisions involving health, it's vital to define personal values, understand facts, and weigh the risks of action versus inaction.

Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Risk Assessment Financial Data
  1. Interest rates are rising, affecting both stocks and bonds. This change can make it harder for investors to predict market movements.
  2. Only a few big tech companies are driving market gains, which shows the performance isn't shared evenly across all stocks. If you didn’t invest in those top companies, your returns might not be great.
  3. There are still uncertainties about inflation and the economy, making it hard to predict what will happen next. Investors continue to swing between hope and worry.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Economic Factors Global Markets
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

Governing Risky Pandemic Research

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 549 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🔬 Science Research Regulation Risk Assessment
  1. Experts can disagree on the risks and benefits of proposed research, impacting research sustainability and public trust.
  2. There are concerns about regulating research with pathogens due to potential risks and lack of consensus on what is considered risky.
  3. Suggestions for governing risky research include demonstrating clear research benefits, identifying alternative methods, preregistering research, indemnifying organizations, and implementing global norms.

Friday Q&A: silent spread of COVID; full body MRI; Ambien risks; & quantifying risk

Are You Okay? • 599 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Risk Assessment Symptoms Preventive Care
  1. Some studies suggest that asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 may have low viral infectivity, meaning they are less likely to spread the virus.
  2. Having a full-body MRI has benefits like early cancer detection, but it may not always be necessary for everyone and should be evaluated based on individual health considerations.
  3. Ensure to stay informed about current health topics and consult healthcare professionals for personalized advice and guidance.

Friday Q&A: answering your COVID questions

Are You Okay? • 539 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID Prevention Risk Assessment Boosters Masks
  1. Public health experts suggest waiting 6 months after either a vaccine dose or infection to get a COVID booster.
  2. Fit-tested masks may only protect against exposure for a couple of hours; staying away from infected individuals while prioritizing sleep, good food, exercise, and outdoor time are key.
  3. For vulnerable family members, especially those with autoimmune diseases or elderly, balancing social interactions and precautions remains a challenge despite vaccinations and boosters.

On the FLI AI-Risk Open Letter

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1523 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Ethics Political Response Risk Assessment
  1. The FLI AI-Risk Open Letter calls for a pause in training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, sparking mixed reactions.
  2. The letter combines short-term concerns with existential risks, suggesting high standards that might act as a de facto ban on AI development.
  3. Despite its flaws, the letter sets the stage for cooperation and lays the groundwork for future discussions around AI safety and regulation.

What do I know about Artificial Intelligence?

The Joyous Struggle • 395 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Ethics Risk Assessment Innovation Future implications
  1. Many people have mixed feelings about technology, especially artificial intelligence, due to fear of missing out, lack of understanding, and a sense of exclusion from the tech world.
  2. The author shares a sense of 'tech incredulity' toward AI, questioning its potential impact, limitations, and whether it truly warrants the level of concern it receives.
  3. Despite not having expert knowledge, the author acknowledges a responsibility to learn more about AI, to demystify the complexities surrounding it, and to understand the risks, potential, and ethical implications better.

On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models

AI Snake Oil • 398 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Societal Impact Risk Assessment Regulation
  1. The paper on the societal impact of open foundation models clarifies the discrepancy in claims about openness's societal effects, examines the benefits like transparency and empowering research, and proposes a risk evaluation framework for comparing risks of open vs. closed foundation models and existing technologies.
  2. The framework for risk assessment in the paper outlines steps like threat identification, evaluating existing risks and defenses, and determining the marginal risk of open foundation models. It aims to provide a structured approach to analyzing risks associated with open foundation models.
  3. By analyzing benefits, such as distribution of decision-making power, innovation, scientific research facilitation, and transparency, the paper sheds light on the advantages of open foundation models and offers recommendations for developers, researchers, regulators, and policymakers to navigate the landscape effectively.

Regulatory Update: Recent Developments Impacting DeFi

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
🔮 Crypto Regulation Compliance Exchanges Market Trends Risk Assessment
  1. Recent SEC actions indicate a tough regulation for crypto exchanges in the US. Companies like Coinbase and Bittrex are facing serious legal challenges for not complying with registration rules.
  2. John Reed Stark, a former SEC official, predicts that many crypto exchanges may need to shut down or change how they operate in the US.
  3. Regulations are becoming a big deal in the crypto industry, and companies will have to work hard to comply with new rules to stay in business.

Self-exfiltration is a key dangerous capability

Musings on the Alignment Problem • 399 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Security Digital Infrastructure Model development Risk Assessment
  1. The ability of AI models to self-exfiltrate is a significant and potentially dangerous capability.
  2. It's crucial to focus on preventing model self-exfiltration to retain control over AI models.
  3. Three main paths for model self-exfiltration are persuading an employee, social engineering, and exploiting security vulnerabilities.

The 78 per cent solution

Logging the World • 378 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Long Covid Risk Assessment
  1. A recent study found heart abnormalities in 78 out of 100 people who recovered from COVID within 2-3 months, but this data comes from a sample of the sickest patients which might not be representative of the general population
  2. The Sports Illustrated claim of 78% heart abnormalities risk may not be applicable to current conditions due to the study predating vaccines and omicron, raising concerns about drawing conclusions from outdated research
  3. It's crucial to consider the context and representative sample when interpreting statistics, like looking at more recent data from sources like the UK Office for National Statistics to understand the risks of Long COVID

The DBIR is entering its Vulnerability Era

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 03 May 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Breaches Vulnerability Management Software Development Risk Assessment
  1. Vulnerability exploitation is growing rapidly, with a 180% increase reported. This means more cyber attackers are taking advantage of software weaknesses.
  2. Organizations are struggling to keep up with vulnerability management. Simply telling them to patch faster isn't enough; they need better strategies to reduce the number of vulnerabilities.
  3. The push for 'Secure-by-Design' software is getting stronger. This approach encourages companies to take responsibility for their products' security, making them safer for everyone.

A Look at the UK's National Cyber Security Centre's Vulnerability Management Guidance

Resilient Cyber • 119 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Vulnerability Management Risk Assessment Software updates Compliance
  1. Organizations should have a clear policy to automatically apply software updates. This helps close the gap between when vulnerabilities are identified and when they are fixed, making it harder for bad actors to exploit them.
  2. Knowing what assets you own and who is responsible for them is crucial. Without this information, vulnerabilities could go unaddressed, leading to increased security risks.
  3. The business should take ownership of the risks related to vulnerabilities, not just the security team. It’s important for leadership to understand and document the decisions regarding risks associated with remediation.

Leveraging an AI Security Framework

Resilient Cyber • 79 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
🕹 Technology AI Security Data Management Risk Assessment Software Development Cybersecurity
  1. The Databricks AI Security Framework (DASF) helps identify and manage risks in AI systems. It's important for security experts and AI developers to know how to keep AI safe while still allowing innovation.
  2. Data operations have the highest number of security risks, like data poisoning and poor access controls. If the raw data is compromised, it can affect the entire AI system.
  3. Different stages of AI development, like model training and deployment, have unique risks to watch for, such as model theft and prompt injection attacks. Understanding these risks helps keep AI applications secure.

Sitting On a Haystack of Digital Needles

Resilient Cyber • 179 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Software Development Vulnerability Management Digital Security Risk Assessment
  1. The number of software vulnerabilities is growing really fast, and it's hard for organizations to keep up. Right now, a lot of vulnerabilities get reported, but companies can only fix a small fraction of them each month.
  2. There's a big push for making software safer from the start, so users aren't stuck dealing with problems created by developers. This idea, called 'Secure-by-Design,' aims to shift the responsibility for security onto the companies making the software.
  3. Many organizations are feeling overwhelmed trying to patch vulnerabilities. If they stop, they risk being exploited by attackers, making it feel like a never-ending struggle to stay secure.

LNT is prudent.

Gordian Knot News • 205 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🔬 Science Radiation Regulation Risk Assessment Public Health Nuclear power
  1. Pursuing safety in a cost-effective way is crucial to prevent harm and save lives.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model, while used for regulatory purposes, can come with enormous costs to humanity due to its over-conservatism.
  3. Focusing solely on minimizing radiation exposure without considering other costs may lead to unnecessary harm and consequences, such as deadly evacuations and ruined lives.

Learning from KC Chiefs Parade: Free virtual exercise for shootings at school events

School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports • 99 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness School Safety Emergency Management Training Risk Assessment Crisis response
  1. Emergency management exercises help test preparedness for various emergencies, like shootings at school events.
  2. Most school shootings stem from escalated disputes, not deliberate attacks targeting students.
  3. School officials need comprehensive planning beyond 'active shooter' strategies to effectively respond to emergencies.