The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

3 Trends I'd Never Bet Against: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Energy density is crucial for modern life and continues to power our economies. It supports everything from electricity to agriculture.
  2. High energy use has allowed technology and human population to grow, especially since the discovery of oil in the late 1800s.
  3. Despite renewable energy sources like wind and solar, we still need efficient, high-density energy sources to maintain economic strength and growth.

Why Can't We Run the Economy Better?

Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Economics is a challenging field due to the numerous variables involved in predicting and understanding economic outcomes.
  2. The history of economic growth shows that sustained worldwide economic growth is a relatively recent development, starting around 1820.
  3. Predicting economic trends is complex, similar to predicting the weather, due to the vast number of interconnected variables that can influence economic behavior.

Nvidia Record High Thoughts

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, breaking the $150 barrier recently. This indicates the company's strong performance in early 2025.
  2. The writer remains confident in Nvidia's prospects, indicating a long-term positive view on the stock.
  3. The current stock level prompts reflections on whether to buy more, sell, or adjust their position, highlighting the decision-making process for investors.

Let It Snow, Let It Go: The SnowVendor’s Dilemma

Gad’s Newsletter • 29 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Cities need to balance snow removal resources to avoid wasting money during mild winters while being prepared for severe storms. Too many resources can cost a lot, while too few can lead to big problems.
  2. Using data to predict snowfall and plan ahead helps cities manage their snow removal strategies better. This includes estimating how many snowplows and how much salt they will need based on past snow events.
  3. Pooling snow removal resources among cities sounds good, but it can create logistical challenges. Sharing equipment and supply can be complicated during serious snow events when everyone needs help at the same time.
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San Francisco and Miami. Hot or not?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The Case-Shiller home price index shows Miami hitting new highs while San Francisco has been declining.
  2. Both San Francisco and Miami have low housing production, with Miami consistently slightly higher in construction than San Francisco.
  3. San Francisco's construction activity seems to be waning, despite expectations for increased housing due to YIMBY wins and new state laws.

An Athenian Odyssey

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Greek banks faced huge challenges after a financial crisis, losing most of their market value and seeing many loans go unpaid.
  2. Despite a tough recovery process, the Greek economy is growing again, and banks are starting to regain investor confidence.
  3. A transformation is underway in Greece, with international banks showing interest in investing, which reflects a healthier banking system.

Answering our 2024 questions, and charting a bright path into the New Year

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. There are concerns about low birth rates and whether solutions will be effective. It seems like a tricky problem for many countries.
  2. New technology in artificial intelligence is expected to get stronger and cheaper, which could change many industries. This might bring big improvements in how we use technology.
  3. There's hope for a quicker switch to a zero-carbon future as more people push for it. This could help our planet a lot.

How to intellectually debate AI while completely missing the point

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 11 implied HN points • 20 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. The debate about AI often splits into two sides: those who fear job loss and those who believe innovation benefits everyone. However, both miss the real issue: while technology can create more value, it doesn't mean everyone benefits equally.
  2. AI changes not just tasks but the entire structure of industries. This means that instead of just focusing on jobs, we should look at how AI shifts power and influence in the economy.
  3. To truly understand AI's impact, we need to think about how it transforms systems and competition, rather than just the tasks it performs or the jobs it might replace. This broad view helps us see who really gains or loses from these changes.

Unlocking the Power of Freemium

Platform Papers • 19 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Freemium apps can boost sales of their paid versions by providing a sample for users to try before committing to a purchase.
  2. The availability of a free version can improve the discoverability of a paid app, especially in categories with a smaller number of apps.
  3. When designing freemium apps, developers should carefully balance free and premium features to ensure there is a significant difference to motivate users to upgrade.

SpaceShoring: When Offshoring Just Isn’t Far Enough

Gad’s Newsletter • 26 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Manufacturing in space has unique benefits, like producing materials with special properties that can't be achieved on Earth. This is due to factors like microgravity, which can enhance things like crystallization in materials.
  2. Despite the advantages, there are huge challenges to making space manufacturing cost-effective. High startup costs and technical difficulties mean it's currently not competitive with traditional Earth-based manufacturing.
  3. The future of space manufacturing could depend on companies like SpaceX reducing launch costs even more. If prices drop significantly, it might open up new possibilities for making things in space that could eventually be profitable.

Don't Run Coibion-Gorodnichenko Regressions with Micro Data

inexactscience • 39 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Running Coibion-Gorodnichenko regressions with individual data can lead to misleading results. It's important to use appropriate data types to avoid confusion in the findings.
  2. Individual forecasts tend to produce negative results compared to positive results in average forecasts. This means that the insights from these regressions can differ significantly based on the data used.
  3. The methodology is sensitive to noise and measurement errors, which can skew results. Researchers need to be cautious and robust in their approach to ensure accurate interpretations.

Herding in Queues: Why we Can’t resist Long Lines for Bagels

Gad’s Newsletter • 32 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🍲 Food & Drink Economics
  1. People often wait in long lines for things like bagels because they believe that if a lot of others are waiting, then the product must be really good. This is called social proof.
  2. Even though waiting can be frustrating, many customers think the experience is worth it. They might feel like they're part of something special when they join a long line.
  3. Humans tend to mimic what others want rather than deciding for themselves. This means our desires can be influenced by seeing others enjoy something, like delicious bagels, leading us to wait in line too.

Will AI skyrocket inequality?

Economic Forces • 12 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. AI might change job markets and wages, but we need to examine how it affects skilled and unskilled workers. Understanding labor demand and supply can help explain these changes.
  2. There is a potential for AI to increase inequality, especially between those with higher education and those without. However, AI might make some skilled tasks easier for less-educated workers, which could balance things out.
  3. As AI evolves, the way we categorize jobs might need to change. We should look at how AI creates new job roles and affects wages within different skill groups.

A benefit greater yet

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Optimal population subsidies can differ greatly based on the discount rate assumption, with the model showing notable variations between a 5% and a 7% discount rate.
  2. There's evidence of a non-linear relationship between fertility rates and income, with high-income groups having more children in some cases, impacting population growth predictions.
  3. The marginal benefit of a birth is suggested to increase rapidly with population growth and discounts rates, leading to implications concerning government spending priorities and possible optimization opportunities.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. California home sales increased by about 19.8% compared to last year in December. This shows a strong recovery in the housing market.
  2. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the existing home sales report for December to reflect ongoing growth. This will mark the third month of year-over-year increases in home sales.
  3. There’s a general positive trend in the housing market after months of decline. It's a sign that more people are starting to buy homes again.

Robot Revolution?

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is taking over many jobs, especially in tech and creative fields, causing big layoffs and making it hard for new graduates to find work.
  2. There’s a growing concern that AI could create a rich vs. poor divide where a few tech owners become extremely wealthy while most people become jobless and struggle to get by.
  3. To address these changes, we need new ideas about how society should work, moving away from just making money to focusing on community, creativity, and ensuring everyone has what they need.

The Tipping Point

The Last Bear Standing • 28 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Microsoft is investing in significant capital projects which could impact the market. It's good to pay attention to how this could change things in the future.
  2. Labor market data is mixed; while some numbers seem weak, others show strength. This may indicate a balancing act in the economy.
  3. Inflation and earnings reports coming up are essential to watch. They will likely add more excitement and direction to the market soon.

What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 76 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. The distribution of technological progress can be influenced by the balance of power in both markets and politics.
  2. Technologies can have both positive and negative impacts on society, so it's important to consider the distributional effects.
  3. Diverse perspectives and opinions are crucial in shaping better and more equitable technological trajectories.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-25 Su

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 76 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Branko Milanovic discusses visions of inequality, highlighting the importance of technological and business-model research and development in market economies.
  2. Shifting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts reflect a debate about the impact of maniacal bubbles and policy near-neutrality in a balanced economy.
  3. The need for individuals to stay focused on reality outside media perceptions and the impact of lags in economic understanding discussed by Jeffrey Frankel supporting the idea that perceptions lag behind reality.

Some Thoughts on Teaching Introductory Economics

Economic Forces • 11 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Introductory courses often try to cover too many topics too quickly. It’s better to focus on fewer topics so students can really understand them well.
  2. Teaching simple frameworks like supply and demand can help explain complex ideas like price controls. This method makes it easier for students to learn and apply economic concepts.
  3. There are both obvious and more hidden costs to price controls, like rent control. Understanding these costs can be complex, but it’s crucial for a deeper understanding of economics.

Nouriel Roubini predicted the 2008 crisis. And he's worried about your retirement savings.

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Nouriel Roubini warns that bonds, once seen as a safe investment, are now risky due to rising interest rates. Many investors didn't realize their bond values were dropping.
  2. For people nearing retirement, Roubini suggests moving investments to safer options like short-term treasuries, inflation-indexed bonds, and gold. These could help protect against inflation and rising rates.
  3. He believes that current bond losses could lead to a serious economic downturn. This creates a tough situation for central banks trying to control inflation.

Good news, IPO edition

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Coincheck, a Japanese crypto exchange, recently went public through a SPAC deal and its shares are doing well. Even though they raised less than expected, being valued above the traditional SPAC price is a positive sign.
  2. ServiceTitan's IPO priced at $71 per share, which is higher than its previous range, marking it as a success despite some concerns about its past valuation. It shows that good market conditions can help companies raise more money.
  3. The European economy is facing slow growth and has cut interest rates to help manage inflation. This situation reflects challenges in recovery and suggests that Europe may need to change its approach to improve its economic performance over time.

The Mathematics of Scale [Math Mondays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 07 Jun 22
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Economies of scale mean costs decrease as production increases, benefitting companies by spreading costs over more goods.
  2. Tech and software engineering benefit greatly from scaling and replication, allowing for efficient large-scale operations.
  3. To leverage the principles of scale for career growth, understand how your solutions fit into the big picture and build a strong foundational knowledge across different areas.

Why athletes like Cristiano Ronaldo and Max Verstappen are buying new private jets

Huddle Up • 23 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Many athletes, like Cristiano Ronaldo and Max Verstappen, are buying private jets for convenience and comfort on their travels.
  2. Ronaldo's jet, often said to cost $70 million, was actually used and likely bought for much less — he may have even leased it instead.
  3. Private jets can save time and offer luxury, but it's important to understand the full costs, including operation and maintenance.

The Points Guy

Net Interest • 81 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Frequent flyer programs are a big business that started as a way to retain customers.
  2. Airlines uniquely benefit from loyalty schemes by catering to both business and leisure customers, offering perishable products, and providing various service tiers.
  3. Points schemes generate money through ticket sales, partnerships with card companies, and marketing services.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-18 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 69 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Economic transformations involve recognizing opportunities, investing, experiencing euphoria, and dealing with crashes, crises, and adjustments.
  2. In the Biden Administration, there is notable tension between departments like Treasury and the Pentagon, hampering collaboration for economic change.
  3. Understanding collective intelligence and distributed cognition is crucial - global economic challenges require more than individual human capabilities.

What happened in brand and agency: WPP struggles, Instagram & AdTech vs Sensitive Content and Fashion Week

The Social Juice • 22 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. WPP is facing tough challenges, highlighting the pressures in the advertising industry. This might mean changes for many companies and advertisers in how they operate.
  2. Instagram recently dealt with backlash over graphic content on its platform. This shows the ongoing struggle between user experience and ad tech, as brands seek engagement without alienating users.
  3. Building a strong community around a brand is key. Companies should nurture their audiences, allowing them to engage and share value, making the community feel connected to the brand itself.

The Fed Has Stopped Pretending that Price Inflation Is Going Away

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, claiming confidence in lower inflation, but that confidence seems to have faded. The Fed is now uncertain about its inflation goals.
  2. Inflation remains high, especially for everyday necessities like food and housing, causing consumers to struggle with rising costs. Recent data shows that inflation is not improving as expected.
  3. Instead of lowering interest rates, which may not help ordinary people, the Fed should step back and allow the market to adjust naturally. This could help stabilize the economy and provide better opportunities for regular investors.

The Roman Market Economy

Something to Consider • 39 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💾 History Economics
  1. The Roman economy functioned like a market economy, thriving on trade during the Pax Romana, which helped improve living standards. Markets existed long ago, and the flow of goods among regions shows how interconnected they were.
  2. Data on prices and trade from ancient times can be hard to find, but clever techniques can help make sense of it. This shows that even with limited information, we can understand how economies worked.
  3. Economic issues like inflation and political stability often influenced each other during the Roman Empire. Events like plagues affected both money value and social order, showing that economic and historical factors are linked.

Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Freddie Mac reported a significant increase in multifamily serious delinquencies in January 2024, marking a shift in the rental market dynamics.
  2. The rise in delinquency rates is attributed to slowed rent growth, increased vacancies, and higher borrowing rates in the multifamily housing sector.
  3. The trend of increasing delinquencies is expected to continue as more apartments become available in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in the real estate market.

It’s a little bit more complicated than that

Klement on Investing • 10 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. It's important to avoid oversimplifying complex issues, especially when discussing countries like Hungary and Poland. Both political sides have their perspective, but the reality might be more nuanced.
  2. Hungary and Poland may show strong economic growth on the surface, but underlying problems like high inflation and low productivity suggest not everyone is benefiting equally from this growth.
  3. Many households in Hungary and Poland are facing financial difficulties, meaning economic success isn't reaching everyone. Wealth is becoming concentrated among a few, leaving many behind.

Brief note on innovation, distribution, and moats

Logos • 19 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Strong distribution is more important than complex technology. It's hard to get your product in front of people, even if you have a great product.
  2. Startups often succeed not because of better tech, but by disrupting market rules. They reach new customers by using different methods that big companies might overlook.
  3. While tech complexity can show growth potential, it doesn't guarantee a competitive edge. Companies need to innovate to keep up, but that innovation doesn't have to be super complicated.

Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Due to household formation slowing down, multifamily starts are expected to decrease significantly.
  2. Freddie Mac reports that multifamily delinquencies have tripled year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in multifamily construction.
  3. Data points show that factors like softening asking rents, increased vacancy rates, tighter lending, and higher interest rates are contributing to the decline in multifamily starts.