The hottest Equity Research Substack posts right now

Lululemon has consistently positive and rising economic profits and free cash flows, which points to a high-return, growing business.
The company carries almost no net debt so financial leverage is low, though retail lease obligations should be reviewed as a form of off‑balance debt.
Valuation appears attractive with a smoothed free cash flow yield near 7% and an EV cap rate around 10%, so the stock merits further research.

Use the PULSE framework as a fast triage tool that pulls five financial "vitals" from all three statements so you can quickly sort stocks into not interesting, attractive-but-expensive, or attractive-at-a-good-price. This lets you focus deeper research only on the most promising ideas.
Look first at Economic Profit over time and Underlying Free Cash Flow (adjusted for stock options and compared to net income) to see if a business truly earns above its cost of capital and converts profits into real cash. Consistent, rising economic profit and a healthy FCF-to-net-income ratio signal higher quality.
Always check leverage and valuation together: use Net Debt/EBITDA to spot risky capital structures, a Smoothed FCF yield (multi-year average brought forward by expected growth) to assess sustainable valuation, and an EV cap rate (last 12 months plus debt) to avoid companies that only look cheap because of heavy debt. Combining these measures helps catch hidden risk and find genuinely attractive prices.

AI assistants can rapidly build serviceable financial models inside Excel by pulling public data and automating forecasts, showing how much routine analyst work can be automated.
Excel remains the central workspace for finance because it’s a shared language that lets analysts inject judgment, so AI that integrates with Excel is more useful than tools that try to replace it.
Advances in AI (bigger context windows and better reasoning) put pressure on legacy market-intelligence vendors and valuations, though complex cases and human judgment still matter.

AI is lowering the cost and speed of building software, but the classic reasons to buy vendor products—total cost of ownership, speed to market, focus, ongoing maintenance, and compliance—still matter.
With engineering velocity becoming less of a constraint, the market will likely be flooded with new software, driving commoditization; companies that don’t capture the next wave risk slower growth and lower valuations.
Short-term earnings and retention can look healthy even as disruption looms, because markets often discount disruptive threats early; companies need a clear path to durable, predictable growth to avoid a slow decline.

The comprehensive analysis of Capital One's metrics shows strong fundamentals.
Sellside reports may be misreading Capital One's high ACLs as a sign of impending recession.
There's a possibility of Capital One's FY22 earnings being understated by up to 40% due to over-conservative CECL accounting.

Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Analysts focus on a few key drivers of company performance and change those priorities as the macro environment changes. For example, during inflation they paid more attention to supply-chain disruptions and rising costs.
Valuation methods vary by region and shape what analysts look at: multiples (especially P/E) dominate in North America and Asia while DCFs are more common elsewhere, and multiples push analysts to stress customers, pricing and margins while DCFs push them to stress macro risk and investment activity.
Relying on a single valuation method creates biased attention and mispricing — analysts using multiples tend to overreact to firm-level drivers and underreact to macro factors — so blending multiple valuation approaches gives a more balanced view and can reveal investment opportunities.

A new service works like a 24/7 personal equity research team that automatically finds and validates investment ideas.
It delivers a steady daily stream of ideas from liquid, investable companies and focuses only on the markets you actually invest in.
You get full access to every report, valuation model, and Excel export so you can dig into the analysis and make clearer investment decisions.

AI tools like OpenAI's Deep Research can now quickly gather and analyze financial information, making research much faster than before. This is changing how equity analysts do their jobs.
Instead of relying on research assistants, analysts can use AI to find critical insights in real-time during meetings. This allows them to ask smarter questions based on the latest data.
As AI technology improves, it could take over more of the research tasks that analysts do. This raises questions about the future roles of these analysts in the finance industry.

Ignoring risk in investments is a big mistake. You need your own way to measure and manage risk because investments have different levels of risk.
Using numbers is important for valuing companies, but don't forget the stories behind them. The results in numbers should reflect the company's real situation.
Keep your methods simple. A straightforward approach, like CAPM, can be useful, and it's important to question and refine your risk assessment regularly.

Tesla's current market value seems too high given its low revenue and operating loss. Many investors wonder if it can continue to grow without making profits soon.
For Tesla to succeed, it needs to increase its revenues and eventually turn a profit. This requires a lot of investment in production and technology.
The risks for Tesla are significant, especially due to market competition and its financial status as a young company. It might have a tough road ahead despite its high market price.

Stock prices can rise even when the economy is doing badly. This happens because companies can still make money, which keeps investors interested.
The market doesn’t always reflect the current situation. Sometimes, it takes time for stock prices to catch up with economic changes.
Investors should have a clear story or a plan about why they think the market will go up or down. It’s important to avoid getting mad when the market doesn’t match their expectations.