The hottest Financial Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Portfolio Review - October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 339 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. The portfolio reached a new all-time high in value, showing strong overall performance this month. This indicates good investment decisions in the recent past.
  2. Several key companies, like Visa and Meta, reported better-than-expected earnings, reinforcing their growth potential. These results contributed positively to the portfolio's success.
  3. InPost and Nubank remain as targets for investment, reflecting strategies to capitalize on their future performance. Keeping an eye on their stock movements can lead to profitable opportunities.

OnlyFans Sticky Business Model

SatPost by Trung Phan • 127 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💼 Business E-commerce Digital marketing Entrepreneurship Financial Analysis Consumer behavior
  1. OnlyFans has grown rapidly, with many creators and subscribers, making billions in revenue. The platform allows creators to earn money through subscriptions and direct messaging.
  2. The business model of OnlyFans is unique. Creators can earn more by keeping subscription prices low and upselling personalized content through DMs, rather than relying mainly on subscription fees.
  3. The success of OnlyFans raises questions about the nature of online connections. While it provides income for many, it sometimes sacrifices genuine connection and quality of interaction.

The Frankfurter Index

Doomberg • 6098 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Currency Commodities Economic Theory Financial Analysis
  1. The price of everyday items can help us understand the true value of money over time. For example, the cost of hot dogs compared to the price of gold shows how much the dollar has changed.
  2. While the value of the US dollar has been decreasing, it's important to look at prices in relation to gold to see the bigger picture. Gold has been a constant measure of value throughout history.
  3. Some people worry that we will run out of oil, but advancements in technology suggest otherwise. Oil and gas companies are innovating and have plenty of resources available.

The Bear Cave #255

The Bear Cave • 676 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate News Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.

CIAM Market Size

ciamweekly • 62 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💼 Business Market Size Financial Analysis SaaS Cybersecurity Revenue Models
  1. The CIAM market is growing fast, with estimates ranging from $12.5B in 2024 to $43.6B in 2034. This shows a big interest in managing customer identities.
  2. CIAM is different from IAM, focusing on customers instead of employees. This market is not as big as data storage or CRM but has its own importance.
  3. Companies in this market can earn a lot, but revenue is unevenly spread. Some big firms like Auth0 and Ping pull in significant revenue, while smaller startups are also emerging.
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3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

Problems at POET Technologies (POET)

The Bear Cave • 256 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Corporate Finance Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. POET Technologies is working on an optical interposer technology, but it has very little revenue and a large debt, raising concerns about its long-term survival.
  2. The stock price of POET has risen dramatically this year, largely due to promotional campaigns rather than the company’s actual performance or growth.
  3. Several YouTube videos promoting POET were paid for by the company, which coincided with big jumps in stock price, suggesting that hype is driving interest more than solid fundamentals.

AI Eats Equity Research

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💼 Business Equity Research Artificial Intelligence Financial Analysis Investment Trends Technology impact
  1. AI tools like OpenAI's Deep Research can now quickly gather and analyze financial information, making research much faster than before. This is changing how equity analysts do their jobs.
  2. Instead of relying on research assistants, analysts can use AI to find critical insights in real-time during meetings. This allows them to ask smarter questions based on the latest data.
  3. As AI technology improves, it could take over more of the research tasks that analysts do. This raises questions about the future roles of these analysts in the finance industry.

Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Equities Investing Market Trends Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

Big Risks: Catastrophic Risk in Investing and Business

Musings on Markets • 1139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Risk management Investment strategy Valuation Methods Market behavior Financial Analysis
  1. Catastrophic risks can come from many sources like natural disasters, hacks, or changes in laws. They can seriously threaten a business's survival and impact its value.
  2. It's crucial for business owners to understand how these risks affect their financial situation. They can either be insurable or uninsurable, and knowing this helps in making better decisions.
  3. People often react emotionally to risks, sometimes ignoring them until it's too late. Understanding these reactions can help in making smarter investments and preparing for the worst.

How to Raise Your First Fund💼, 2024 Midas List🏆, Analyzing Startup Financials 📊

The VC Corner • 319 implied HN points • 09 Jun 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Strategies Financial Analysis
  1. Raising your first fund can be a challenging but rewarding process. It's important to prepare thoroughly and understand your investors' needs.
  2. The 2024 Midas List highlights top performers in venture capital. This list can give insights into successful investors and trends in the industry.
  3. Analyzing startup financials is vital for making informed investment decisions. A solid grasp of finances helps in assessing a startup's potential for growth.

Megarounds make a comeback💰, The State of GenAI🤖, Doing Diligence Well🕵️

The VC Corner • 559 implied HN points • 14 Apr 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Trends Technology Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Megarounds, which are large funding rounds for startups, are becoming popular again. This means investors are feeling more confident about investing in big projects.
  2. The state of Generative AI (GenAI) is evolving quickly. It shows a lot of potential for various applications in tech and business.
  3. Doing proper diligence is important for investors. It helps them make smart decisions before putting money into a startup.

Intel Q3'2024 Financials: Hallowe'en

More Than Moore • 256 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Business strategy Financial Analysis Product Development Market Trends
  1. Intel's recent financial report shows a drop in revenue but highlights some solid fundamentals when looking closer. The big losses are mostly from costs tied to restructuring and asset impairment, but without those, the numbers look much better.
  2. The company is focusing heavily on improving its margins and operations with new products coming up, especially in AI and client computing. However, they face tough competition in the AI market, lagging behind companies like NVIDIA.
  3. There are expectations for recovery in margins and revenue as newer products are released in the coming years. Overall, the restructuring seems to have some positive signs, but Intel needs to effectively deliver on its promised technology advancements.

Gambling with language models

Rain Clouds • 51 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Cloud Computing Data science Financial Analysis Investing
  1. Using AI models, like ModernBert, can help in predicting which stocks might perform better based on financial reports and market data. This means you can get insights without needing to be a finance expert.
  2. The project combines cloud computing with machine learning, making it easier to process large amounts of financial data quickly. This is important for anyone looking to analyze stocks more efficiently.
  3. While the model can make predictions, it's important to remember that investing in stocks always carries risks. Just because a model suggests a stock might do well, it doesn't guarantee success.

UnitedHealth’s self-dealing is accelerating

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 899 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics Health care Insurance Policy Corporate ethics Financial Analysis
  1. UnitedHealth is increasingly making money through its own subsidiaries, which means it's doing more business with itself. This raises concerns about whether patients are getting the best options and quality of care.
  2. A significant portion of UnitedHealth's revenue comes from internal transactions with its subsidiary, Optum. This could limit competition and hurt other healthcare providers.
  3. Using its own doctors and services helps UnitedHealth avoid spending obligations meant for patient care, potentially leading to reduced quality for patients.

Fraud in Asia

Asian Century Stocks • 668 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Fraud Accounting Investments Financial Analysis
  1. Tan & Robinson's book on Asian financial statement analysis is a key resource for spotting fraud and misrepresentation in Asia.
  2. Watch out for companies with high margins, poor cash flows, fast-growing balance sheets, and complex corporate structures with frequent related party transactions.
  3. High-profile short-seller reports should be taken seriously when assessing potential fraud in companies.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Updates
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

Corrected Headlines

Human Capitalist • 39 implied HN points • 02 Sep 24
💼 Business Industry News Human Capital Financial Analysis
  1. Headlines often miss important details about news stories. It's crucial to look beyond them for a better understanding.
  2. Recent stories include changes in companies like Crowdstrike and Goldman Sachs. These shifts affect the workforce and the way we view the corporate world.
  3. There is a focus on human stories behind the news, making it relatable. Understanding who is impacted helps in grasping the bigger picture.

Nvidia Record High Thoughts

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economics Financial Analysis Market Trends
  1. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, breaking the $150 barrier recently. This indicates the company's strong performance in early 2025.
  2. The writer remains confident in Nvidia's prospects, indicating a long-term positive view on the stock.
  3. The current stock level prompts reflections on whether to buy more, sell, or adjust their position, highlighting the decision-making process for investors.

Apple's M&A Strategy, Explained

SatPost by Trung Phan • 79 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Mergers Acquisitions Strategy Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Apple's approach to mergers and acquisitions often focuses on acquiring talent rather than large companies. They prefer smaller deals to bring in experts for new technologies.
  2. Chick-fil-A has become hugely successful with only a few thousand locations by keeping their restaurant experience efficient and engaging. Their franchise model is very selective, ensuring high-quality operators.
  3. Duolingo emphasizes user engagement over strict educational methods because they know it’s crucial to keep users motivated in a competitive app landscape.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 139 implied HN points • 11 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Growth is good, but focus on steady companies. Investing in companies like Mastercard and Waste Management can be safer than in more volatile sectors like tech.
  2. Look for quality stocks with strong finances. Companies that have good balance sheets and are undervalued are better bets for stability and growth.
  3. Beware of concentration in one stock. It's smart to diversify your portfolio; don't let one winning stock take up too much space.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Value Investing Substack • 373 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Financial Analysis Value investing
  1. The VIS Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 both in up and down years, showing it's a zero-correlation portfolio.
  2. By focusing on undervalued stocks, the VIS Portfolio achieved similar or higher upside than the S&P 500 with lower downside risk.
  3. The VIS Portfolio has consistently beaten the S&P 500 across different time periods, showcasing the effectiveness of the value investing strategy.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Strategies
  1. Broadcom's stock has seen a significant increase, driven by high demand for its AI products, and investors are optimistic about its future.
  2. Experts, including AI leaders, warn that tech companies need to invest more in AI safety as competition grows, emphasizing the potential risks if AI surpasses human intelligence.
  3. The market for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the way, indicating a strong investment opportunity.

The Bear Cave #209

The Bear Cave • 559 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💼 Business Financial Analysis
  1. New Activist Reports highlighted concerns about various companies' practices, such as management history and accounting irregularities.
  2. Recent Resignations included notable departures of executives from companies like Cannae Holdings and Funko due to various reasons.
  3. Tweets of the Week showcased impactful posts related to finance and investment, providing insights and observations on current market trends.

Klarna's going public, and I'm excited as hell

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💼 Business Fintech IPO Investment Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Klarna is planning to go public, which is exciting news for the fintech industry. Their recent financial improvements and a strong market for BNPL companies are driving this move.
  2. Klarna's growth has been mixed, with rapid increases followed by significant losses in previous years. However, they have managed to reduce losses and improve revenue in the last year.
  3. The current market favors companies like Klarna due to rising stock prices in the fintech sector. This suggests that investors believe there will be less strict regulations on their lending practices.

HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)

Value Investing Substack • 275 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Financial Analysis Marketing
  1. Hibbett is a unique retail company marketing to a niche customer demographic in the sneakerhead culture.
  2. The business model of Hibbett resembles marketing-focused businesses like fashion brands rather than traditional retail.
  3. Hibbett's management exhibits strong financial acumen through optimal capital allocation and cost management.

Clouded Judgement 5.16.25 - Net New ARR Trends

Clouded Judgement • 5 implied HN points • 16 May 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Strategies Financial Analysis Earnings Reports
  1. Net new ARR, which shows the growth in quarterly revenue from cloud software companies, has decreased in the latest reports. This is concerning since a drop can suggest financial struggles.
  2. Valuation for SaaS companies is often based on revenue multiples, giving a quick way to compare their worth. The current median multiple is 5.5x, but top companies can reach much higher valuations.
  3. Companies with higher growth rates tend to have larger valuation multiples. It's essential for investors to watch these trends to better understand the market landscape.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Financial Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

Institutional Investors and Cannabis

Mindset Value • 393 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Institutional investors have not yet significantly entered the cannabis space, despite recent positive industry developments.
  2. Institutions will focus on understanding unit economics and demanding better disclosure from cannabis companies before investing.
  3. Growth, balance sheet risk, and interstate commerce concerns are some key factors institutions will weigh before entering the cannabis market.

#12: What kind of business has Viking built?

Bureau of Adventure • 99 implied HN points • 12 Apr 24
💼 Business Travel Industry Financial Analysis Market Growth Customer Loyalty
  1. Viking has built a successful cruise business, focusing on premium river and ocean cruises. They have a strong market share and generate impressive revenues, growing faster than many competitors.
  2. Their river cruises make up a large part of their business, but they plan to expand their ocean cruises due to higher profitability. Viking currently has ambitious growth plans to increase capacity and explore new travel options.
  3. Viking's marketing strategy is focused and effective. They have a strong brand presence and a loyal customer base, which helps them book a lot of reservations well in advance.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 07 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Tesla's future might rely heavily on robotaxis, which could change how we think about car ownership. Instead of selling cars, companies may focus on self-driving vehicles that people can use for convenience.
  2. Nvidia's stock has surged due to its strong position in AI chips, with many analysts still optimistic about its future growth. Most analysts recommend buying Nvidia, suggesting there could be more gains ahead.
  3. Historically, after a strong first quarter in the stock market, gains often continue through the rest of the year. Companies with low valuations and those focused on dividend growth are worth keeping an eye on.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. After a strong first quarter, stock market gains often slow down or even decline in the second quarter. History shows the market can be vulnerable after big early gains.
  2. Slow and steady rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can be good for stocks. A gradual approach usually leads to bigger gains compared to quick cuts.
  3. Asset-light businesses, like franchises or companies with good credit terms, can grow without needing heavy investments. These businesses can be valuable for long-term investors.