The hottest Housing Data Substack posts right now

In October, existing home sales increased slightly to an annual rate of 4.09 million, which is a small rise from September and up from last year. This shows a steady demand in the housing market.
The median price for single-family homes also went up by about 2.2% compared to last year, indicating that home values are on the rise.
Analysts suggest that the market's estimate of the neutral interest rate, known as R*, is around 1.5%. This estimate aligns well with several economic models, showing a consistent outlook.

New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.

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New home sales rose to an annual rate of 627,000 in June, which is a small increase from May but still lower than a year ago.
The supply of new homes for sale is around 9.8 months, indicating there are more homes available than usual.
The inventory of completed homes is much higher than it was in early 2022, suggesting an increase in housing options for buyers.

The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.