The hottest Housing Markets Substack posts right now

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They've Got You Buying and Selling

Bet On It • 392 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Housing Markets
  1. Modern protectionism is inconsistent and ad hoc: it attacks both buying from foreigners and selling to them depending on which group complains, rather than following a clear principle.
  2. Exports like housing, tourism, and energy can raise local prices and spark backlash, but that same price effect would apply to any export, so singling out certain sales is arbitrary.
  3. Trade is a form of technology that creates abundance and overall gains, and since progress always hurts some people, the wiser response is to boost production and help the losers rather than block trade.

Economics Links, 2/12/2026

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Markets
  1. Modern growth theory introduced formal production functions that made economic progress measurable and showed that, in competitive markets, wages tend to reflect workers' marginal product.
  2. Housing research finds house prices move with average incomes while housing supply usually follows population growth, so price–income correlations don’t prove supply restrictions are the primary cause of high local prices.
  3. New solar-driven processes to make synthetic hydrocarbons promise abundant, low‑cost energy in the future, but real‑world limits like grid integration and total system costs could slow their widespread adoption.

Do We Want High Home Prices?

MD&A • 138 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. Don't reason from a price change: the same price move can mean very different things depending on whether supply or demand shifted. For example, lower prices from more supply help consumers, but lower prices from a recession hurt them.
  2. High housing prices can be good or bad depending on the cause: when they come from supply restrictions like zoning and fees they mostly hurt renters and lock people out, but when they come from higher wages and growth they reflect higher living standards. Developers will build more if prices rise for the right reasons, but supply limits break that feedback and create persistent unaffordability.
  3. Owning a home only partly hedges future housing costs, so paper gains from house-price inflation often offset higher lifetime housing liabilities; amenities raise prices because they're scarce, not because higher prices make them better. Increasing housing supply lets people enjoy amenities without forcing others out.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Postscript 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. High housing costs in cities like San Francisco and Boston are driven mainly by restricted housing supply, not by unique economic 'superstar' demand; limited new construction makes existing homes much more expensive.
  2. The 2008 shift in federal mortgage access, together with slowing construction, changed price dynamics by reducing low-tier buying power and pushing rents up, as seen in Phoenix where low-end prices and rents diverged.
  3. When formerly fast-growing cities cut housing growth to the low rates of supply-constrained cities, they converge toward higher rents and low vacancy rates; cities that kept building (for example, Austin) have shown more stable vacancies and relatively better affordability.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. Low-tier home prices have risen much faster than high-tier prices, so being poor and housed has become significantly more expensive and the gains in real estate wealth are a regressive transfer to owners of scarce housing.
  2. Most of the aggregate rise in home values comes from an extra, supply-driven premium that filters across markets, meaning inadequate housing supply—especially in upward-filtering cities—has been the primary driver, not agglomeration or just higher incomes.
  3. Common price measures and policy responses obscured the real problem: indexes of existing homes overstate scarcity effects and post-boom credit tightening lowered prices temporarily without fixing undersupply, leaving families paying higher rents, staying put longer, and facing worse housing outcomes.
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The Return of the Rust Belt

The New Urban Order • 359 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Housing Markets
  1. Cities in the Rust Belt like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Indianapolis are emerging as top housing markets for 2024, showing significant price appreciation.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, cities in the Midwest and Rust Belt are now becoming more attractive due to affordability compared to traditionally booming cities in the South and West.
  3. Factors like housing affordability, climate change, and government and private investments are influencing the resurgence of the Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Good regulation vs bad regulation

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Housing Markets
  1. Some government regulation — like limits on noise and requirements for workplace protections — can improve public health and raise local property values.
  2. Installing noise barriers next to busy roads quickly increases nearby home prices (about 6.8% within 100m) and could unlock roughly $110 billion in lost property value nationwide.
  3. Widespread adoption of electric vehicles reduces traffic noise and could further boost property values (an estimated $77 billion gain), so faster EV uptake would help homeowners near noisy streets.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
đź’Ľ Business Housing Markets
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Housing Markets
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.