The hottest Home Sales Substack posts right now

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New Home Sales Decline Sharply to 587,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 239 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. New home sales fell sharply to a 587,000 annual rate in January, down 17.6% from December and 11.3% from a year earlier, with recent months revised lower.
  2. Housing inventory and months' supply have risen — supply is about 9.7 months now, well above the 4–6 month normal range, with completed homes and 'not started' units notably elevated.
  3. The median new home price is about 13% below its peak, largely because the mix of homes sold has shifted toward lower-priced or different types of units.

The Gaping Hole in the Housing Market

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Many upbeat predictions about the existing home market have turned out to be wrong.
  2. The existing home market has stayed in a deep recession, with sales remaining weak.
  3. Lower mortgage rates do help with affordability. But that only explains part of the weak sales — other factors are keeping the market down.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales look to be flat or slightly down year‑over‑year, with early-reporting markets showing about a 2.9% drop and sales well below February 2019 levels.
  2. New listings and active inventory are rising — new listings were up roughly 5.5% year‑over‑year and active inventory climbed about 12%, so more supply is coming onto the market.
  3. Local conditions vary: Las Vegas is seeing slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory, while the Pacific Northwest has transactions down around 3% and listings up about 28% even as mortgage rates sit near 6.1%.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
  2. Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
  3. Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.
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December 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Home sales have been mostly flat through December but are starting to show signs of picking up.
  2. Inventory has been falling since the summer, which suggests supply is beginning to tighten.
  3. Months-of-inventory remains above seven months, so there is still ample supply and many willing counterparties in the market.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Home Sales
  1. The NAR moved to an earlier monthly reporting schedule, which reduces the early sample available for projections and makes larger revisions to reported sales more likely.
  2. Inventory is rising — active single-family listings are up week-over-week and substantially up year-over-year, suggesting inventory may have bottomed early and that the usual spring pickup in March could be stronger.
  3. Sales and new listings remain muted overall — December showed small YoY gains on an unadjusted basis but 2025 had the weakest annual sales since 1995, and new listings are still well below 2019 levels in many markets.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Inventory has risen sharply back toward pre‑pandemic levels while existing‑home sales fell to the lowest since 1995, and that combination is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. National house‑price indexes show only small year‑over‑year gains (around 1–2%), and the trend is slowing with reported data lagging recent market moves.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have increased purchase mortgage applications but haven’t yet boosted sales significantly, and a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low rates.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Home Sales
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. December existing home sales look mostly unchanged year‑over‑year, and 2025 may end up as one of the weakest sales years since 1995.
  2. Inventory and listing trends are mixed: new listings were down about 4.5% year‑over‑year while active inventory was up roughly 9–10% YoY, with both measures still differing from 2019 levels.
  3. December closings mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November when mortgage rates averaged about 6.25%, and working‑day/seasonal adjustments can noticeably change the reported year‑over‑year results.

Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Home Sales
  1. Existing‑home sales remain weak — November's SAAR was about 4.13 million, roughly 24% below pre‑pandemic (2017–2019) levels, with year‑to‑date sales down about 0.5% and 2024 the weakest year since 1995.
  2. Supply is rising and uneven — active inventory is up about 8.8% year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic levels, though new listings are down in many markets and regional differences are large.
  3. Prices could come under pressure — the national median price is up about 1.2% year‑over‑year now. Rising inventory suggests further regional price declines and a possible national decline in 2026, and December sales look likely to be slightly lower year‑over‑year despite modestly lower mortgage rates.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Home Sales
  1. Existing-home sales rose in December to a 4.35 million SAAR, up 5.1% from November and about 1.4% from a year earlier. Despite the monthly gain, annual sales remain at their lowest level since 1995.
  2. Housing inventory fell sharply in December to 1.18 million units and months-of-supply dropped to 3.3 months, reflecting seasonal lows. Yet inventory was up 3.5% year‑over‑year and, on a months‑of‑supply basis, is higher than before the pandemic because sales have fallen even more.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased only modestly, rising 0.4% year‑over‑year to $405,400, indicating slight price growth.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

Are Economic Worries Overblown?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. The U.S. stock market is down, with the S&P 500 dropping 6% this year due to economic worries. Many people are feeling uncertain about the economy right now.
  2. Pending home sales in the U.S. have hit an all-time low, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. This is a significant sign of trouble in the housing market.
  3. There is a lot of volatility in the financial markets due to government changes and spending cuts, creating questions about whether current market conditions are a good buying opportunity.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.

California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. California home sales slightly decreased in June compared to last year. Even though there was a small rebound from previous months, the overall sales were still down.
  2. The median home price in California fell to $899,560, dropping below $900,000 for the first time in three months. This decline is affected by market uncertainty and high mortgage rates.
  3. Inventory levels saw significant growth, with total active listings rising over 40% year-over-year. However, new listings also declined, which might balance supply and demand in the future.

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales increased in November, reaching an annual rate of 4.09 million. This is a 3.3% increase from October and 4.6% higher than last November.
  2. The median price for existing single-family homes went up by about 5.3% compared to last year. This suggests a growing demand in the housing market.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the 'neutral' interest rate, which affects how restrictive monetary policy is. Recent economic growth may lead to higher estimates of this rate among officials.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Home Sales
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.