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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 215 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Existing-home inventory has risen and months-of-inventory are mostly above pre‑pandemic levels, putting downward pressure on prices and making a year‑over‑year price decline possible this year, though a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most owners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  2. The housing market is uneven across regions: some areas are seeing bigger inventory increases and price drops, while places like the Northeast have smaller inventory gains and continuing price increases.
  3. Homebuilders look to have a rough 2026 with many completed and under‑construction homes unsold, leading to price cuts to compete with existing‑home inventory; overall active listings are up year‑over‑year but remain below typical 2017–2019 levels and the pace of growth is slowing.

The Gaping Hole in the Housing Market

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Many upbeat predictions about the existing home market have turned out to be wrong.
  2. The existing home market has stayed in a deep recession, with sales remaining weak.
  3. Lower mortgage rates do help with affordability. But that only explains part of the weak sales — other factors are keeping the market down.

1.600 million Total Housing Completions in 2025 including Manufactured Homes

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 253 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Total housing completions in 2025 fell to about 1.60 million (1.498 million excluding manufactured homes), down roughly 7.5–7.9% year‑over‑year.
  2. Multifamily completions declined sharply in 2025 (5+ unit completions down about 20% from 2023) after a 2024 surge, but they still ranked as the second highest level since 1987.
  3. Single‑family completions dipped slightly to about 1.01 million in 2025, while active single‑family inventory has risen (up 1.4% week‑over‑week and roughly 9.4% year‑over‑year) with a larger spring inventory pickup expected.

New Home Sales at 745,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. New home sales ran at a 745,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, and about 679,000 new homes were sold in 2025, a slight decline from 2024.
  2. Inventory is elevated with 7.6 months of supply overall; completed homes are near multi-year highs and homes not started are at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is about 10% below its peak mainly due to a change in the mix of homes sold, and initial sales estimates are uncertain and likely to be revised down.

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. Existing-home sales are very weak: 2025 posted the lowest annual sales since 1995, with a SAAR near 4.35 million and about 19% below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Inventory is rising and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic norms, and that higher supply—despite only a small median price gain—increases the risk of national price declines in 2026.
  3. Falling mortgage rates in late 2025 make a slight uptick in January sales likely, but new listings remain below 2019 levels so inventory improvements may be uneven across markets.
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Is This the Time to Buy a Home?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Interest rates are finally falling, but that hasn’t translated into lower home prices yet, so cheaper financing doesn’t automatically mean cheaper homes.
  2. Inventory is rising and there are more sellers than buyers, yet overall demand has barely moved, creating mixed signals about whether it’s truly a buyer’s market.
  3. Individual listings can still spark bidding wars and sell well above asking—especially for clean, desirable properties—so outcomes vary by property and buyers should be selective and cautious.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Active listings for existing homes are up about 10% year‑over‑year and month‑of‑inventory is back to pre‑pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices and could lead to year‑over‑year price declines this year. Most homeowners still have substantial equity and low mortgage rates, so a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely.
  2. Homebuilders look to face a difficult 2026 because they have many completed homes for sale and an unusually large number of unsold homes under construction, so they’re cutting prices to compete with growing existing‑home inventory.
  3. Key government data on housing starts and new home sales are delayed by the shutdown, leaving the picture incomplete, and different sources show mixed inventory trends even though national supply remains roughly 17% below 2017–19 levels and the inventory recovery has stalled.

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
  2. National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
  3. Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. December existing home sales look mostly unchanged year‑over‑year, and 2025 may end up as one of the weakest sales years since 1995.
  2. Inventory and listing trends are mixed: new listings were down about 4.5% year‑over‑year while active inventory was up roughly 9–10% YoY, with both measures still differing from 2019 levels.
  3. December closings mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November when mortgage rates averaged about 6.25%, and working‑day/seasonal adjustments can noticeably change the reported year‑over‑year results.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. Existing‑home sales remain weak — November's SAAR was about 4.13 million, roughly 24% below pre‑pandemic (2017–2019) levels, with year‑to‑date sales down about 0.5% and 2024 the weakest year since 1995.
  2. Supply is rising and uneven — active inventory is up about 8.8% year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic levels, though new listings are down in many markets and regional differences are large.
  3. Prices could come under pressure — the national median price is up about 1.2% year‑over‑year now. Rising inventory suggests further regional price declines and a possible national decline in 2026, and December sales look likely to be slightly lower year‑over‑year despite modestly lower mortgage rates.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. 2025 saw one of the weakest years for existing home sales since 1995 and could be the lowest year on record since then.
  2. Early December data show a small year‑over‑year rise in sales in early‑reporting markets, but new listings fell about 9.6% while active inventory climbed about 12.7%.
  3. Compared with December 2019, new listings and sales are much lower (new listings down about 28%) while inventory is much higher in most areas, and mortgage rates around 6.25% in Oct–Nov likely restrained buyer activity.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Housing inventory plunged during the pandemic and, although it rose through 2025, it still sits below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Past shifts in inventory have been useful signals for housing market turning points—big increases helped mark the 2006 top and big drops helped mark the 2012 bottom.
  3. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted so year‑over‑year changes are the best way to read it; for example, the NAR reported a 7.5% YoY inventory increase in November 2025, while months‑of‑supply uses seasonally adjusted sales.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Inventory
  1. California sales reached their highest pace since September 2022, up about 2.6% year‑over‑year on a seasonally adjusted basis, but statewide sales still sit below the 300,000‑unit benchmark and the median price fell month‑to‑month while remaining roughly flat year‑over‑year.
  2. In the local markets sampled, closed sales were down about 7.1% year‑over‑year on a not‑seasonally‑adjusted basis, and early data suggest national November existing‑home sales may be unchanged or down slightly year‑over‑year.
  3. Supply is building unevenly: active inventory was up roughly 9.8% year‑over‑year while new listings fell about 4.6%, with wide regional differences and a slowing pace of inventory growth (California’s unsold inventory index near 3.6 months).

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Home sales in the sampled local markets cooled in November, down about 5.7% year‑over‑year and still well below November 2019 levels; seasonally adjusted national sales look to be flat or slightly down.
  2. New listings fell about 6.1% year‑over‑year in November after rising the prior month, and remain roughly 16% below October 2019 activity.
  3. Active inventory was up about 9.8% year‑over‑year, but the change is uneven across regions — much higher in places like Denver and Phoenix and lower in areas such as Grand Rapids and San Diego.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Home sales are down compared to last year, and we might see sales in 2025 be similar to those in 2024, which were already low.
  2. Inventories are increasing, meaning there are more homes available for sale, which could lead to price drops in certain areas.
  3. July sales are expected to remain steady compared to July last year, as mortgage rates and working days are similar.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.