The hottest Inventory Substack posts right now

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Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 52 implied HN points ā€¢ 30 Jan 25
šŸ’° Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 52 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Jan 25
šŸ’° Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 43 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Jan 25
šŸ’° Finance Housing Market Trends Real Estate Sales Data Inventory
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 28 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Jan 25
šŸ’° Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Some local housing markets are seeing quicker inventory recovery than sales, especially in states like Florida and Texas. This may lead to rising home prices.
  2. December is showing a year-over-year increase in home sales for the third month in a row. This trend might indicate a recovering housing market.
  3. Regional differences in the housing market are important to watch. Understanding these differences can help buyers and sellers make better decisions.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 23 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Dec 24
šŸ’¼ Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 17% compared to last year. This is a good sign, but sales are still lower than what they were a few years ago.
  2. There was a big jump in active home listings, with inventory up almost 25% year-over-year. This increase is crucial for keeping house prices stable during the winter months.
  3. New listings are rising slightly, but remain low when compared to past years. This means fewer homes are being put on the market, even though some areas are seeing more options.
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Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 23 implied HN points ā€¢ 25 Nov 24
šŸ’° Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates Inventory
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post ā€¢ 117 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Jan 24
šŸ’° Finance Housing Market Interest Rates Inventory Economic Impact Home Prices
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 148 implied HN points ā€¢ 12 Feb 24
šŸ’° Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Housing Inventory and Demographics: The Next Big Shift

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 157 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Jul 23
šŸ’¼ Business Housing Demographics Inventory
  1. Existing home inventory trends are not following predictions based on baby boomers downsizing.
  2. Some experts predicted a surge in housing inventory from 2015 to 2025 due to baby boomers downsizing, but that did not happen.
  3. It's important to stay informed about trends in housing inventory and demographics to understand the market shifts.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 43 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Mar 24
šŸ’¼ Business Real Estate Market Trends Inventory Mortgages
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 Dā€™s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 47 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Feb 24
šŸ’¼ Business Housing Markets Real Estate Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.

The Point of No Return? A New Model for Reverse Logistics

Equal Ventures ā€¢ 59 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Oct 22
šŸ’¼ Business Logistics Ecommerce Retail Returns Inventory
  1. Ecommerce returns have surged, leading to unsustainable cycles of returns. Covid-19 exacerbated this trend, with around 40% of retailers easing return policies, resulting in return rates of 20% for ecommerce.
  2. Returns are costly for retailers due to logistics expenses. Online returns can cost retailers approximately 21% of the order value, and long returns processes lock up inventory, impacting retail profitability.
  3. Major retailers like Amazon have mastered optimizing returns through dedicated processing centers. Democratizing this capability to all brands is essential for efficient returns management.

Introducing Ghost - A B2B marketplace to solve for >$1T of excess inventory

Equal Ventures ā€¢ 59 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Jul 22
šŸ’¼ Business Marketplace Inventory Startup Investment Retail
  1. There was a significant rise in excess inventory due to supply chain challenges, leading to potential losses of over $1T annually.
  2. Ghost is a B2B marketplace created to help brands manage and liquidate excess inventory efficiently.
  3. The founders of Ghost, Josh Kaplan and Dee Murthy, demonstrated remarkable success with the platform in a short period, showing strong product-market fit.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 23 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Feb 24
šŸ’° Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Home Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.