The hottest Portfolio Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Design Topics

You Pick the Stock. I'll Run the Vitals.

Behavioral Value Investor • 104 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A new weekly video called Subscriber PULSE Check will screen three or four subscriber-submitted tickers each Friday, with the host opening the PULSE template on camera and walking through the analysis.
  2. PULSE is a quick triage tool that anchors on hard historical financials—like economic profits, underlying free cash flow, leverage, smoothed FCF yield, and EV cap rates—to decide if a stock deserves deeper research.
  3. Everyone can watch the episodes for free, but only paid subscribers can submit tickers (submissions stay in a queue if not picked), and the regular free Tuesday PULSE articles will continue.

Investing Update: Was That The Market Flush?

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Stocks fell for a fourth straight week, with the S&P 500 down 1.9% and the Nasdaq and Dow about 2.1%, marking the longest losing streak in over a year.
  2. Gold plunged 11.1% this week — its worst weekly drop since 1983 and on pace for its worst month since 2013 — showing that even traditional safe havens can get crushed.
  3. Crypto and commodities diverged: Bitcoin dropped 5.7% on the week and is nearly 20% down year‑to‑date, while oil remains the big winner, up more than 70% YTD.

Fringe Finance Stocks To Watch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 3 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Collects proprietary stock ideas and shows the most recent stocks to watch along with past performance for selected picks.
  2. Features a yearly "Stocks I'm Watching" roundup that highlights specific picks and tracks how they performed across each year.
  3. The page is behind a paywall, so you need a paid subscription or to sign in to access the full content.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 6: Amazon.com

Behavioral Value Investor • 59 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. What looked expensive by traditional valuation metrics in 2012 ended up being the cheapest thing to buy over the next decade because growth and reinvestment paid off.
  2. Amazon’s durable advantages — better price, selection, convenience, personalization, habit formation, higher inventory turnover, plus AWS — strengthened over time and drove widening economics.
  3. Those advantages translated into real results: roughly 24% sales CAGR and 32% EBIT CAGR from 2012–2022, and about 25% annual stock returns through 2026, well ahead of the S&P 500.

War Expands, Markets Fragile: Latest Portfolio Update Heading Into Monday

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. The conflict has expanded into a multi-front regional war with strikes on Iran’s infrastructure, attacks across the Gulf, and Hezbollah involvement, increasing the risk of a larger, prolonged confrontation.
  2. Iran’s leadership appears to be shifting after the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba reportedly poised to succeed and hardliners likely to retain control, creating major political uncertainty.
  3. A focused 26-stock portfolio is still outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 5% year-to-date, but markets are on edge and investors should expect heightened volatility and sector-specific risks.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Investing Update: An Updated Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Major U.S. indexes slipped for a third straight week and the Nasdaq is noticeably down year-to-date, but the S&P 500 remains less than 5% from its all-time high.
  2. Commodities are the big story — oil jumped sharply this week and is up roughly 72% year-to-date, which raises inflation concerns and could sway markets.
  3. Individual investor bearishness has surged, with nearly half expecting stocks to fall, yet most stocks haven't collapsed and the market's underlying bull trend still looks intact.

Just buy the haystack!

Compounding Quality • 3223 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Passive investing philosophy: Buy the haystack instead of looking for the needle.
  2. Everyone can invest in stocks easily through passive index funds.
  3. Consider using dollar-cost averaging strategy for investing large sums over time.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 3: Nestlé

Behavioral Value Investor • 66 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A great, durable company isn't guaranteed to deliver high returns if you buy it at an only-average price.
  2. Actual EPS growth turned out far lower than expected — roughly 2–3% per year instead of the hoped-for high single digits — and that weak growth hurt performance.
  3. Small near-term underperformance can compound into a much larger long-term shortfall, so valuation and growth assumptions matter for long-horizon results.

🥇The Best of Compounding Quality

Compounding Quality • 2279 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. The best investment is in yourself, always pays the best interest.
  2. Interactive Brokers is highlighted as one of the best and cheapest brokers available.
  3. The website offers a wide range of content on investment philosophy, financial analysis, portfolio management, and more.

Investing Update: The Most Important Chart in the Market

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Gold is soaring (+21.2% YTD) and other defensive assets like oil (+17.2% YTD) and bonds are outperforming, showing investors are favoring safety over growth.
  2. Market breadth is deteriorating even as headline indexes sit near highs — technology, financials, and consumer discretionary are negative YTD and fewer than 60% of stocks in those sectors trade above their 50-day moving averages, signaling narrow leadership and fragility.
  3. Overall sentiment is risk-off: a VIX-based signal, the big YTD drop in Bitcoin (~25%), and close attention to names like Nvidia underline a cautious stance and active rotation away from growth.

The Last Living Value Investor's Portfolio

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. The market looks like a big bubble with stretched valuations that could snap back hard if conditions change. A fair-value PE near 17.6x implies roughly a 30% drop from current levels if earnings don’t rise.
  2. The portfolio stance is defensive and skeptical: largely on- and off-net short to protect against a bubble popping, though shorts can be temporarily covered for specific catalysts like geopolitical events.
  3. There are five deep-value long positions (two added recently), and three of those longs yield over 6% in dividends, reflecting a preference for high-yield, fundamentally cheap opportunities inside an overheated market.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. He bought one of his three stock picks for 2026, specifically a software company.
  2. He shared a full breakdown of the trade, including what he bought and the price paid per share.
  3. The detailed write-up is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

One ETF Up 13% This Year And Another I Like

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. I’m watching two non‑U.S. investments: one is up about 13% this year versus roughly 1% for the S&P, and the other was added to reduce concentration risk and sharpen the thesis.
  2. The core idea is that U.S. stocks trade at very high valuations (around 40x earnings) while the rest of the world is much cheaper, so relative valuation could start to matter again.
  3. If we see dollar weakness, Fed easing, and modest capital rotation away from U.S. concentration, these non‑U.S. ETFs should benefit, and it’s likely still early to own them.

News of the Week (February 5 - 9)

Stock Market Nerd • 825 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💼 Business Portfolio
  1. Cloudflare provides web optimization and security, showing strong revenue growth and expanding services beyond traditional security tools like network firewalls
  2. Spotify had a mixed quarter, with growth seen in 2023 but missed revenue estimates for Q4, leading to a focus on evolving its operations
  3. Amazon plans cost cuts in its healthcare unit, while Duolingo faces the risk of potential disruption by emerging GenAI language translation technologies

Investing Update: Bearish Data Emerges

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Major U.S. indexes pulled back this week, led by technology, signaling a modest consolidation as investors reassess valuations and seasonal weakness approaches.
  2. On the surface breadth is strong—every S&P sector is above its 200‑day moving average and equal‑weight stocks are outperforming—but the leadership is defensive (materials, energy, utilities) while tech and communications lag, which raises questions about the rally's durability.
  3. There’s hidden stress under the indexes: an unusually large number of individual S&P stocks plunged 7%+ in a short period, a pattern that historically precedes much larger market drawdowns and increases the risk of a bigger selloff.

Down 60%, One Stock I Still Love

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A big price drop doesn't automatically mean the investment idea is wrong.
  2. The core fundamental drivers supporting the long-term thesis remain intact, so the opportunity still exists despite the decline.
  3. The decline makes the risk profile clearer, and after reassessing, the long-duration opportunity can still justify holding or buying.

If I Had To Buy 4 Stocks Monday Morning...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A curated 26-stock portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by about 5% on an equal-weighted basis, which suggests the selection process is working.
  2. If forced to buy only four stocks, the approach would be three familiar names plus one new small position added recently.
  3. The four picks are chosen across different risk profiles and narratives to blend pessimism, durability, and long-term optionality.

One Stock I'll Avoid Forever

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A specific S&P 500 stock is identified as one to avoid forever, with a firm stance against ever owning it.
  2. Recent developments this week made the negative view even stronger.
  3. The detailed explanation and reasons are behind a paywall and require a paid subscription to read.

26 Stocks I'm Watching For 2026: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 53 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. High-conviction thematic bets — especially nuclear energy, precious metals, rare earths, and junior miners — powered huge outperformance in 2025, showing the payoff from concentrated exposure to structural themes.
  2. Heading into 2026 there are five major risks to watch: a tapped-out American consumer and rising delinquencies, frothy AI-driven valuations, an erosion of the passive bid, crypto’s growing systemic ties, and geopolitical moves pushing investors into hard assets.
  3. Two market regimes are plausible next year — a liquidity-fueled bull where policymakers prop up nominal prices, or a reality-driven bear with deleveraging — so focus on relative performance, favoring international/EM and metals as hedges rather than long-duration or richly priced U.S. equities.

Dry Powder

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Keep significant dry powder—cash or short-term investments—so you can act quickly on big opportunities or cover emergencies; if possible aim for millions, but at minimum have enough (e.g., $100k+) to avoid forced selling.
  2. US equities look richly priced by several measures (market-cap-to-GDP, Shiller PE, and heavy tech concentration), which raises the odds of low or negative returns in the years ahead.
  3. Investor complacency and low volatility mean now is a time to be defensive and plan to buy optionality during market stress (and consider writing optionality when volatility spikes), using cash to take advantage of forced-selling opportunities.

One Underperforming Stock I Keep Adding

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Most of the portfolio has been beating the broader indexes so far this year.
  2. One specific holding has been a clear laggard and underperforming the rest of the portfolio.
  3. Despite that underperformance, the investor is adding exposure to the stock and shared an update for paid subscribers.

Q1 2023 Portfolio Update

TSOH Investment Research Service • 569 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Invest in companies that can withstand technological changes for long-term success.
  2. Emulate successful investors like Buffett and Munger by focusing on identifying stable, enduring companies.
  3. Balance consideration of short-term challenges with long-term potential when making investment decisions.

Investing Update: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. The market finished 2025 strong—S&P up about 16%, Nasdaq over 20%, and the Dow up 13%—continuing a multi‑year bull run while still seeing volatility, including a roughly 19% drawdown.
  2. Returns were concentrated and mixed across sectors and stocks. Only two mega‑cap techs beat the S&P, three sectors outperformed, and winners included communication services, semiconductors, gold miners, metals, clean energy, and silver.
  3. Active calls and stock picking paid off: a year‑end S&P forecast landed within 1% and an actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P, showing active management can succeed but is hard to do consistently.

Investing Update: Are Tech Stocks Rested & Ready?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 24 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Tariff-driven geopolitical headlines can cause sharp, short-term selloffs, but markets often rebound after clarifications.
  2. A clear sector rotation is underway as leadership shifts in 2026 away from last year’s tech winners toward other sectors.
  3. The main open question is whether big tech is merely resting and will reassert leadership, or if the rotation will continue to keep those stocks sidelined.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A top investment conviction for 2026 is being doubled down.
  2. The move specifically involves one of the 'Mag 7' stocks, meaning a major tech position is being adjusted.
  3. The full portfolio update is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

26 Stocks I'm Watching For 2026: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 33 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Concentrated thematic bets paid off in 2025 — nuclear names, gold and silver miners, rare-earths, select EMs, and some high‑beta innovation trades drove big outperformance versus the S&P.
  2. Heading into 2026 there are clear systemic risks: a tapped‑out American consumer and rising delinquencies, stretched valuations (especially around AI capex), a weakening passive bid, crypto becoming systemically embedded, and geopolitical/monetary shifts pushing demand for hard assets.
  3. There are two plausible market paths next year: a liquidity‑driven grind higher if policymakers keep backstopping markets, or a more painful deleveraging as real economic strain reasserts itself; positioning favors international/EM discounts and precious metals as hedges while aiming for relative outperformance.

2023 Performance Review

Modern Value Investing • 255 implied HN points • 29 Dec 23
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Achieved a total return of 174% in 2023, recovering from a 74% loss in 2022.
  2. Recovering from drawdowns over 50% can be challenging, requiring high returns.
  3. 2023 success attributed to active trading, contrarian views, and seizing opportunities.

Burry Breaks His Silence

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 43 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Michael Burry has spoken publicly about Palantir, Nvidia, and the AI bubble.
  2. If you own Palantir, Nvidia, AI-heavy ETFs, big-cap tech, or broad index funds, you should spend about ten minutes listening to his interview.
  3. His perspective is seen as important for investors in those stocks and for broader market exposure, so it’s worth paying attention.

Portfolio review August 2023

Asian Century Stocks • 393 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Chinese stocks headlines are negative, but global stocks are more concerning to the author
  2. Portfolio experienced a pullback in August with a -3.8% decrease
  3. Disparity between falling commodity prices and expensive Indonesian equities observed

My "Best Idea" Sector For 2026

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. One sector is highlighted as having the biggest upside potential for 2026, but it also carries the largest downside risk.
  2. This year’s top idea is different from last year’s winners, which were gold and silver miners that ran up strongly.
  3. Full analysis is behind a paywall and requires a paid subscription to access the complete write-up.

What Did Buffett See in AAPL in 2016? Coca-Cola

Value Investing Substack • 353 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. In 2016, Apple stock was undervalued with a low P/E ratio, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
  2. Apple's brand strength and ability to create standardized products quickly were key factors that Buffett saw in the stock.
  3. Buffett's investment strategy in Apple was similar to his approach with Coca-Cola, focusing on consistent returns and solid fundamentals.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For 2026

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. The market began 2026 with strong momentum — major indexes hit all-time highs and many S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day averages and at 52-week highs.
  2. Investor demand is heavy for equities, with record ETF inflows in December and allocations moving away from bonds and cash toward stocks.
  3. There are caution signs: January often fades later in midterm years, and declining heavy truck sales are a notable economic warning to watch.

Investing Update: Mag 7 Dethroned or Dormant?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Markets pulled back slightly as rising yields and Fed Chair uncertainty outweighed strong chip earnings, but year-to-date returns remain positive and Bitcoin, gold, and small-caps were up.
  2. Breadth is improving — all 11 S&P sectors are back above their 200-day averages, more stocks are above both their 50- and 200-day lines, and the share of weak stocks is shrinking.
  3. Tech has been essentially flat for about four months, raising the question whether the Mag 7 mega-cap stocks are permanently dethroned or simply dormant as earnings and guidance season unfolds.

Beating The S&P 500 Isn't As Easy As It Sounds

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Consistently beating the S&P 500 is very hard; most active managers have underperformed their benchmarks in recent years.
  2. Many individual stocks and even big-tech names often trail the index — only about 37% of stocks outperformed in 2025 and only two of the Magnificent 7 beat it.
  3. It is possible for an active strategy to outperform over multiple years, but that kind of consistent outperformance is uncommon and not guaranteed.

Networked Conviction 003

Investing 101 • 4 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Big, durable businesses often hide in plain sight — legacy financial firms, grungy enterprise software, and mineral-rights plays can be ‘sneaky giants’ with steady cash flows and entrenched advantages.
  2. The best opportunities come from noticing overlooked, messy sectors where scale and resilience aren’t obvious, and where small structural edges compound into big moats.
  3. Clear investment insights take time and reflection — ideas crystallize through board meetings, updated marks, and repeated conversations, so consistent journaling and revisiting thoughts matters.

Thinking Long-term

Splattern • 39 implied HN points • 24 May 24
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. Thinking about the long-term can help you focus less on short-term numbers and more on overall growth.
  2. Investing combines both art and science, making it a unique approach to managing money.
  3. Experience in investment is valuable, and learning from seasoned investors can provide important insights.

Down The Path(ways)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Portfolio
  1. A favored sector is already making noticeable progress this year and appears to have real momentum.
  2. This piece is an early-January update, serving as an early-year check on how the sector is performing.
  3. The full write-up is behind a paywall, so you need to subscribe or sign in to read the complete analysis.