The hottest Political Risk Substack posts right now

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Victor Davis Hanson: Why Trump’s Iran Strike Worked

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1720 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Political Risk Presidential Actions International relations
  1. Trump's strike on Iran was a bold move that few other presidents would have attempted due to past failures in the Middle East.
  2. Previous presidents faced significant backlash for their actions in the Middle East, which often damaged their political standing.
  3. Trump's unique approach and clear goals might help him avoid the pitfalls that have troubled his predecessors.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Economic Factors Political Risk Global Markets
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

Regime Change and Value: A Follow up Post on Aramco

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 19
💰 Finance Valuation Risk Analysis Business valuation Investment strategy Political Risk
  1. Valuing a company like Aramco requires looking at both its expected cash flows and political stability. Changes in government can hugely impact its value.
  2. Risk is an important factor in investments and can be split into 'going concern' risk, which means worrying about future cash flows, and 'truncation' risk, which means worrying about whether the company will still exist in the future.
  3. There are pros and cons to investing in businesses within democracies versus autocracies. Democracies can lead to more stable cash flows but also introduce more frequent changes, while autocracies can appear stable but may lead to sudden and drastic changes.

Groundhog day in Greece, Hijinks in Brazil and Market Chaos in China: Pictures of Global Risk - Part I

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jul 15
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Economic Trends Political Risk Investing Strategies
  1. Countries have different levels of risk based on their political, economic, and legal situations. For example, emerging economies are often more unstable than developed ones.
  2. Economic concentration can make a country more vulnerable. If a nation relies heavily on one industry or commodity, it faces greater risks than those with a diverse economy.
  3. Political events can greatly affect business risks. Factors like corruption, political violence, and the legal system are crucial to consider when investing in different countries.

A Risk Argument: Democracies versus Dictatorships

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Sep 09
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Dictatorship Risk management Globalization Economic Policies Democracy Dictatorship Political Risk Governance International relations
  1. Democracies have more day-to-day uncertainty because policies can change frequently, making it hard for businesses to predict outcomes. In contrast, dictatorships can promise stability but may change radically without warning later on.
  2. Continuous risks in democracies can be managed with tools like options and futures, while the sudden changes in dictatorships can be harder to protect against. This is why managing constant risks can be easier for businesses.
  3. Experience in uncertain democratic environments can help businesses adapt better to changes, giving them an edge in the unpredictable global economy compared to those in more stable, but risky, dictatorship settings.
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