The hottest Risk Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Thinking in N not T

moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids • 314 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investments Risk Analysis Market Dynamics Financial Modeling
  1. When analyzing data, consider thinking in terms of the number of unique data points (N) rather than the total number of observations (T).
  2. Samples drawn from the same regime reduce the effective number of data points, impacting the reliability of quantitative analysis.
  3. Account for autocorrelation in data to avoid biases in estimating return volatilities and risk, ensuring better comparisons across different investments.

Beyond Guesswork: The Art and Science of Project Estimation

Mindful Matrix • 179 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💼 Business Project management Software Engineering Risk Analysis Communication
  1. Project estimation is a critical skill influencing project success; it involves setting realistic expectations, aligning efforts, and managing resources effectively.
  2. Key considerations in estimation include understanding project scope, conducting risk analysis, and utilizing estimation strategies like historical analysis and buffer times.
  3. Transparency and communication are crucial in estimation; transparency helps manage stakeholder expectations while effective communication ensures clarity and trust in the estimation process.

PUFA: The Preponderance of the Evidence

Experimental Fat Loss • 233 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Nutrition Weight Loss Health Benefits Risk Analysis
  1. Cutting out seed oils led to significant health benefits for the author, including weight loss and improved overall well-being.
  2. While the link between PUFAs and obesity is not 100% proven, there is substantial evidence and personal anecdotes supporting the idea.
  3. The author believes that the risks of consuming seed oils outweigh any potential benefits, and will continue to avoid them based on the evidence available.
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The De-Kastri Mystery

Navigating Russia • 176 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Sanctions Russia Oil trade Risk Analysis
  1. The breakdown in Sakhalin-India oil trade likely stemmed from elevated risk perception in the shadow trade.
  2. Increased enforcement efforts could shrink the shadow fleet, impacting Russian oil revenues.
  3. Speculation suggests India demanding price-cap compliance led to the failed deliveries, causing distress for Russian oil exporters.

99 million patient records and they concluded that the benefits outweigh the risks!?!? We respectfully disagree.

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 12 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Safety Research Public Health Risk Analysis
  1. The study analyzed 99 million vaccinated individuals, claiming the benefits outweigh the risks, but critics disagree due to concerns about safety signals and limitations of the study.
  2. There is skepticism about the benefits of the COVID vaccine, with questions raised about its effectiveness and the reported adverse events, as well as the lack of transparency in sharing data.
  3. The discussion revolves around the comparison of risks between the COVID vaccine and the virus, particularly focusing on adverse events like myocarditis, highlighting conflicting findings in various studies.

"0% detection has never felt better"

imperfect offerings • 119 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
🚌 Education Risk Analysis Academic Integrity Ethical Concerns
  1. Generative AI tools may fail to expose users to diverse ideas and perspectives, reinforcing existing biases.
  2. There is a risk that the use of generative AI may not respect human rights and safeguard individual autonomy, especially for children.
  3. It is important for educators to carefully consider the consequences of incorporating generative AI tools in teaching, ensuring fairness, transparency, and accountability.

The Don’t Panic About AI Collection

Extropic Thoughts • 19 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Risk Analysis Comparison Critique
  1. The blogosphere is full of posts urging panic over AI, but the author believes we shouldn't panic about AI and shouldn't slow down research.
  2. Some recommended essays explore historical warnings about AI and the risks of slowing down AI progress.
  3. Despite concerns about AI existential risks, the author advocates for not freaking out and discusses different perspectives on AI risk.

How to make your ideas stick

The Incrementalist • 2 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
💼 Business Risk Analysis
  1. Establish context by starting with the 'why' to ensure mutual understanding before diving into the solution.
  2. Identify the problem clearly by grounding discussions with data and metrics and formulating a hypothesis to emphasize urgency.
  3. Present various solutions, consider different options, and follow a structured process to make better decisions, while also demonstrating critical thinking skills.

Understanding The Monte Carlo Method

Photon-Lines Substack • 6 HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Simulation Mathematics Physics Engineering Risk Analysis
  1. The Monte Carlo method uses random sampling to estimate complex mathematical results or simulate probabilistic events.
  2. It is applicable in various fields like finance, physics, engineering, risk analysis, environmental modeling, manufacturing, and artificial intelligence.
  3. The method involves generating a large number of random samples to approximate outcomes when exact solutions are difficult to obtain analytically.

What's your approach to risk-taking as a leader? 🐝

PeopleStorming • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 22
💼 Business Leadership Risk Analysis Teamwork Problem Solving Success
  1. Taking calculated risks means understanding key variables, planning incrementally, and anticipating failure.
  2. As a leader, taking risks is crucial because the market favors competent risk-taking, which leads to outperformance by teams and organizations.
  3. Utilizing trap door thinking, introducing incrementality, and conducting pre-mortems can help in making better risk-related decisions and avoiding irreversible mistakes.

Are you risking your income without even knowing it? Shocking truth that's affecting life.

The Tweetsift Report • 0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
🔬 Science Economics Risk Analysis
  1. Subjective earnings risk is the worry about not making enough money in the future, even when doing well now.
  2. Federal Reserve study shows people may underestimate the risk of earning less in the future, especially when changing jobs.
  3. Young and low earning workers are at higher risk of not evaluating their subjective earnings risks and need to be cautious in career choices.

An LLM-based “exemplary actor”

Engineering Ideas • 0 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Ethics Science Research Risk Analysis
  1. The exemplary actor uses a powerful LLM and narrow AI tools to generate perfectly ethical plans aligned with scientific theories.
  2. Alignment on methodological and scientific disciplines is vital for goal alignment and plan alignment.
  3. Challenges include direct LLM access risks, alien world model influences, and the need to mitigate capability handicaps from ethical alignment.