The hottest Political strategy Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

What Team Trump Must Do Now

Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf • 6 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Media Relations Public Perception Election Dynamics
  1. Team Trump needs to keep a strong message discipline. Just because they won doesn't mean they should let their guard down and act impulsively online.
  2. It's important to share positive stories about new appointments and policies. This helps people understand what changes are happening and why they matter.
  3. Creating iconic images and moments is crucial. The visuals shared can shape public perception and counter negative narratives.

Social Engineering as Election Prediction: Why I Bet on Trump

Rounding the Earth Newsletter • 6 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Engineering Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Social engineering plays a big role in shaping elections. Understanding how this works can help you see why certain candidates seem to be favored.
  2. People often misread polls and predictions about elections. Sometimes, the real trends are hidden or ignored until the election is past.
  3. The political landscape is influenced by larger patterns and strategies rather than just the opinions of voters. This means events can feel scripted or planned in advance.

Dear Team Trump: Don't 'Spike the Football'

Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf • 5 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Communication Republican party Election Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Don't celebrate victories too loudly. It's tempting to gloat, but it could harm long-term goals and alienate supporters. Balance is key.
  2. Make sure to reach out to independent voters, especially women. Ignoring their concerns could lose important support.
  3. Develop clear mission statements and policies. Communicating well can help build a broader movement and keep people informed and engaged.

An Open Letter to the White House Communications Staff Who Put a Tweet From a Radical Environmental Group on Their Web Page

I Might Be Wrong • 8 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Environment White House Climate change Political strategy Protest Movements
  1. An open letter criticizing the White House for featuring a tweet from a radical environmental group on their website.
  2. The importance of being cautious with communications materials to avoid unintended consequences.
  3. Avoiding pandering to extremist groups and focusing on addressing the concerns of mainstream supporters.
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#3 The Startup Party: reflections on the last 20 years, what could replace the Tories, and why

Dominic Cummings substack • 12 implied HN points • 09 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Regulation Technology Leadership Political strategy
  1. Dominic Cummings reflects on his time in No10, attributing Boris Johnson's resignation to various failures.
  2. Criticizes the EU for its ineffectiveness in AI regulation and the government's handling of biosecurity.
  3. Suggests that progress in AI safety may come from building rather than regulation and proposes a Taskforce to address AI challenges.

What's up with AOC and Border Security?

Rounding the Earth Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Border Security Political strategy Immigration Policy
  1. The border wall construction began before Trump's presidency and continued during various administrations.
  2. Border apprehensions fluctuated under different presidents, with Trump seeing a decline followed by a significant increase during Biden's term.
  3. There are ties between lobbying firms like Squire Patton Boggs and the border wall construction finances and processes.

Sweet Home Chicago

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 06 Apr 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political strategy Political parties Public Policy
  1. Swing Republicans are worried because Trump is focusing on divisive topics instead of tax policy, which they prefer to talk about as it helps them secure votes in their districts.
  2. Candidates in elections aim to win, not just increase their vote share. They are careful not to jeopardize their stable support for the sake of a small improvement in overall votes.
  3. The 2018 Congress is likely to focus on messaging rather than major legislation. Both parties are not eager to collaborate on big topics, leading to many symbolic bills without much chance of passing.

FIVE POINTS: Your Thanksgiving Briefing Book

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Tax reform Government Elections Political strategy
  1. When talking politics at Thanksgiving, focus on safe topics like local politics or education to avoid arguments. Prepare a bit beforehand to steer the conversation in a good direction.
  2. The upcoming tax bill has challenges as popular support is dropping and some Republicans are unhappy with the current plan. There’s urgency to pass something, but it might end up being a simpler tax cut rather than a major reform.
  3. The budget process is influencing a lot of what Congress is doing now, and both parties need to negotiate carefully to avoid a government shutdown. Changes in spending caps will likely be part of the discussions as they try to come to agreements.

FIVE POINTS: Groundhog Day in the Senate

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Health care Political strategy Public Policy
  1. The September 30th deadline is significant for the Graham-Cassidy bill, but it doesn't fully block repeal efforts. The Senate can still try to pass other legislation, but it may complicate future initiatives like tax reform.
  2. Getting the Graham-Cassidy bill approved in the House might be challenging. Many House Republicans are in difficult positions regarding their votes, especially those from states that would lose under this proposal.
  3. Puerto Rico is part of the U.S. and deserves equal support in disasters. It's important for Americans to understand that Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens and should receive the same aid as those in other states during emergencies.

FIVE POINTS: Make DACA Great Again

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Political strategy Public Opinion Legislation
  1. Trump's new DACA position could be popular but might also upset his Republican supporters. This situation may weaken his ties with the GOP even if the public likes the idea.
  2. Just because a policy is popular doesn't mean it will boost a politician's approval. It's important to know how many people actually change their opinion based on that policy.
  3. The House Freedom Caucus might reflect a historical trend of factions within political parties. They're working outside normal party lines to push their agenda.

FIVE POINTS: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 31 Aug 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Executive Power Political strategy Bipartisanship
  1. A shift to bipartisan negotiations means Congress is moving away from sharp party lines. This kind of negotiation can help bridge gaps but also brings new challenges and demands from different political groups.
  2. There are key must-pass items coming up, like the debt limit and appropriations. These need to be handled carefully to avoid major political clashes, and there's a chance they could create an easier deal for all involved.
  3. The White House is struggling to control the political agenda due to various external events and internal mismanagement. This has made it hard for them to stay focused and effectively promote their policies.

FIVE POINTS: Wake Me Up When September Ends

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 25 Aug 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Negotiation Executive Power Political strategy Disaster Response
  1. In September, Congress will be discussing critical issues that could impact American politics, including raising the debt limit and government funding.
  2. President Trump's approach to legislation seems risky, as he publicly criticizes party members instead of working with them to achieve goals.
  3. During natural disasters, presidents often struggle to be effective leaders because they can't engage directly at the local level like a mayor can.

Fasten your wonk belt: let's talk filling the tree in the Senate

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Senate House Political strategy Filibuster
  1. In the Senate, any senator can propose amendments to a bill, which means a lot of ideas can be discussed, even if they are not directly related to the bill. This makes the Senate a place for open debate.
  2. Filling the tree is a process where the majority leader can limit the amendments that can be made to a bill, essentially blocking others from changing the proposed legislation. This can help the majority pass their ideas without unwanted changes.
  3. The House of Representatives has stricter rules that allow the majority to control the amendments more tightly, which some say limits true democratic discussion. In this sense, the Senate has more room for debate compared to the House.

Gang of 500 to DeSantis: Let Us Know You

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 24 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidential campaign Political strategy Media Relations
  1. The Gang of 500 is concerned about Governor DeSantis's unconventional approach to his presidential campaign launch, particularly his choice of associations like Elon Musk and his use of platforms like Twitter Spaces.
  2. They value traditional political norms and are looking for clear strategies and intentions from Governor DeSantis.
  3. Governor DeSantis is urged to reach out to established political figures, enhance communication with the Gang of 500, and address concerns to stand a better chance against Trump.

Notes on legislative power accumulation: adding and extracting value

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 02 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislative Process Political strategy Power Dynamics Public Policy
  1. Members of Congress mainly aim to get re-elected, which helps them pursue power and create good policies. If they focus on making good policies without worrying about re-election, they might lose their ability to influence things.
  2. To gain power in a legislature, new members can add value by being reliable voters and developing skills like fundraising or policy expertise. They need to trade their contributions for support from more powerful members.
  3. Extracting value means figuring out what your vote or influence is worth and negotiating for what you can get in return. Being clear about your goals while appearing undecided can help in securing favorable deals.

Friday Procedure Blogging: Adjournment vs. Recess

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Political strategy Constitutional Law
  1. A recess is a short break where the Senate can come back to business right where it left off, while an adjournment means the Senate officially ends its business for the day and starts fresh when it meets again.
  2. The difference between these terms can affect how the Senate operates. For example, in a recess, Senators can only speak a limited number of times, while a new legislative day after an adjournment allows for different rules.
  3. Senate leaders choose between recess and adjournment based on strategy, like avoiding lengthy debates or regaining control when things get chaotic.

Like this and like that and like this and uh

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 23 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Elections Historical Analysis Legislation Political Commentary
  1. The rise of Newt Gingrich in politics might not be as strong as people think. It could be better to invest in other candidates like Mitt Romney instead.
  2. Discussions about whether the Civil War could have been avoided with compensated emancipation often miss the long-term strategies of both sides. It wasn’t just a money issue; it was about political power and strategy.
  3. To make the Super Bowl more exciting, it should be held at the home stadium of one of the teams instead of a neutral site. This way, the atmosphere would be more electric and the weather could add to the game's drama.

Exit Strategy

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Party Dynamics Endorsements
  1. Rick Perry dropping out of the race shows that political choices are often made strategically. Candidates think carefully about how their actions will affect their future opportunities.
  2. Endorsing another candidate, like Gingrich, can be a move to gain political influence later. This decision isn't just about support; it might come with personal or political benefits.
  3. The timing of dropping out and endorsements matters a lot. Candidates aim to make an impact while they still can, especially before someone like Romney locks in their win.

You down with OLC?

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitutional Law Executive Power Political strategy
  1. The Office of Legal Counsel released an opinion about recess appointments, arguing that recent ones were made during a valid recess. They believe this argument is important for transparency.
  2. OLC opinions are more like legal arguments rather than binding court rulings, meaning they aren't laws. Different interpretations exist, which could lead to future conflicts or legal challenges.
  3. Political players, including the President and Congress, are engaging in strategic maneuvers over recess appointments. This could damage established norms and affect how politics is conducted in the future.

Sincerely Yours, Politics

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Dynamics Political Commentary
  1. Political actions can be done sincerely or strategically. Sincere actions aim for clear outcomes, while strategic ones may achieve different goals using the same methods.
  2. It's important to recognize that politicians may have multiple reasons for running, not just to win. Understanding these reasons helps make sense of their decisions.
  3. Critics often assume candidates only want to win and ignore their other goals. This misunderstanding can lead to unfair judgments about candidates' choices and strategies.

Recess Redux

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Institutional change Executive Power
  1. Recess appointments raise complex questions. They involve legal, ethical, and political issues that often don't connect neatly with each other.
  2. The conflict between what is allowed constitutionally and what seems right normatively creates challenges in how appointments should be handled.
  3. Current political actions could lead to changes in how power is shared between the presidency and Congress. This might make future appointments more contentious.

In Which A Whig Thinks About Recess Appointments

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Executive Power Filibuster Congress Political strategy
  1. There are two key ideas at odds when it comes to government appointments: keeping Congress involved in appointments and ensuring that the government runs smoothly even when Congress is out of session. Both are important for a functioning democracy.
  2. The way Congress operates today is very different from when the Constitution was written. Shorter breaks and more frequent sessions mean that the need for recess appointments isn't as pressing as it once was.
  3. There's still confusion about what exactly counts as a 'recess' for making appointments. Different interpretations can lead to a lot of disagreement and may shift power between the presidency and Congress.

GOP Primary Candidate Venn Diagram #2: Jon Huntsman Jr.

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 20 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political parties Political strategy Campaigns
  1. Jon Huntsman Jr. is one of the candidates in the GOP primary race. He is noted for his unique positions compared to other candidates.
  2. The Venn diagram shows the overlapping views and differences among GOP primary candidates. It helps to visualize where they stand on various issues.
  3. Other candidates have their own Venn diagrams which highlight their specific traits and policies. This provides a broader understanding of the primary race.

Hardball and HARDBALL

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 13 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Filibuster Political strategy
  1. The Senate operates largely on norms, but these norms are being pushed aside for strict adherence to rules, which can lead to short-term wins but long-term consequences.
  2. As individual Senators aim for their goals, they often avoid playing absolute hardball since it could harm their future ambitions and cooperation with others.
  3. Changing Senate rules can only happen through extreme measures, and while hardball tactics are causing concern, they might also lead to solutions by forcing necessary changes.

Filibusters and Cloture

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 08 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Senate Filibuster Political strategy
  1. Filibusters are tricky to measure because not all of them get recorded, and political decisions can change how many cloture votes are taken. This makes it hard to see the true level of obstruction in the Senate.
  2. Using the number of failed cloture votes as proof of filibusters isn't foolproof. Sometimes, votes fail not because of obstruction but due to party preferences.
  3. The number of filibusters isn't the only important thing; the overall size of the legislative agenda matters too. More legislation can mean more chances for filibusters, even if the percentage of filibustered items goes down.

Talking about the filibuster

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 06 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Political strategy Congress Political Reporting
  1. The term 'filibuster' can be confusing and it's important to use it correctly when discussing Senate events. Just because a vote fails doesn't mean the filibuster didn't happen.
  2. Using clear language like 'defeated by a motion to end debate' can provide better understanding than just saying 'filibustered.' It tells readers exactly what occurred.
  3. The concept of a filibuster is more about strategy and tactics than just blocking a vote. Various actions can lead to preventing a majority vote, and it's good to see it as a process, not just one event.

Friday Congress Blogging: Unanimous Consent

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 02 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Political strategy Negotiation
  1. The Senate uses unanimous consent to limit debate on bills. This way, all Senators agree to give up their right to unlimited discussion to make things run smoothly.
  2. Unanimous consent works when no Senator objects to a proposal. If they do object, everything can slow down or come to a halt.
  3. Senators might agree to limit debate even if they oppose a bill because it gives them leverage for future negotiations or other bills they care about.

Whigging out

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 30 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Executive Power Political strategy Legislative Process
  1. Congress has the power to shape its own support systems, like the Congressional Budget Office, but if they weaken these tools, they risk giving more power to the President.
  2. It’s tough for Congress to challenge the President directly because the President has a unified message and strong public support, making it hard for Congress to counter effectively.
  3. Congress can either centralize power to act more decisively or expand its capacity to gather information, but these approaches often conflict and can create internal tensions within the legislature.

The Other Caucuses

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 29 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Political parties Elections Legislation Political strategy
  1. Political parties in Congress have their own rules, which are separate from the House of Representatives' official rules. These party rules help organize how members work together and make decisions.
  2. Caucuses, which are groups of party members in Congress, have a key role in choosing committee chairs and leadership. They consider factors like seniority, merit, and proposal from a committee before nominations are made.
  3. Caucus rules can also affect how much power party leadership has, and they can create a better or worse position for leaders depending on how the rules are structured.

By the Numbers: Constitutional Amending in the House

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 18 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitutional Law Legislation Government Structure Voting Rights Political strategy
  1. Since 1978, no new amendments to the Constitution have been successfully passed by Congress for states to ratify. Only one amendment, the 27th, was ratified many years later.
  2. For an amendment to pass in Congress, a two-thirds majority vote is needed. This means at least 289 votes in the House, depending on the number of members present.
  3. A total of 59 proposed amendments have been introduced in the House in the current Congress, highlighting ongoing discussions about potential changes to the Constitution.

King's pawn opening

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 13 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Political strategy Executive Power Budgeting Political Influence
  1. Being the first to propose an idea helps you influence others. If you share your plan early, people are more likely to agree with you before they even think of alternatives.
  2. Once a group agrees on something, it’s hard for them to change their minds. Even if people might prefer another option, they will often stick with the first idea because it's already been accepted.
  3. People who didn’t propose the idea will focus on making small changes instead of suggesting a new plan. This means that the original proposer still holds significant control over the main idea.

It Could Be Said #43 Boris Screwed Boris

It Could Be Said • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Political strategy Government Leadership
  1. Boris Johnson's party faced challenges in a by-election, but surprisingly won in Uxbridge and South Ruslip.
  2. Johnson's actions before the election raised questions about his leadership and strategic decisions.
  3. Speculation suggests Johnson may have avoided the recall election due to fear of losing, impacting his image and potential political future.

The Newsome Absolution

Variations on a Theme • 0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Covid response Public Perception
  1. The concept of absolution is being used politically to shift blame from individuals to groups, offering freedom from guilt without self-reflection.
  2. Political figures like Newsome strategically employ absolution to consolidate their base and deflect criticism, emphasizing collective ignorance and intentions instead of personal growth.
  3. The absence of self-awareness and reflection in absolution allows individuals to repeat similar behaviors in the future, perpetuating cycles of misguided actions and outcomes.

Not Your Father's Impeachment Inquiry

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Impeachment Elections Congress Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Control of Congress is divided between the parties, which affects how the impeachment inquiry unfolds. The Senate can influence the process even if the House decides to impeach.
  2. Trump is running for re-election, which changes the political strategy of the impeachment process. Both parties may act differently based on how it impacts the election.
  3. Moderate Senate Republicans hold significant power, potentially swaying the outcome of the impeachment process based on their support or opposition to Trump. Their decisions could change everything.

The Second Face of Power

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jun 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Elections Political Science Congress Political strategy
  1. Agenda setting is a key part of politics. It's not just about how people vote, but also about what issues are put up for a vote.
  2. In the House, the Speaker has a lot of power to decide which bills are debated and voted on. This can keep popular legislation from even being considered.
  3. Packaging bills together, known as omnibus legislation, can help pass difficult measures by attaching them to more popular ones. This strategy can create complicated political situations.

The National Emergency Gambit

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jan 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Legislation Elections Partisanship
  1. The National Emergency Gambit is a strategy that's gaining traction in DC. It gives both parties a way to save face while avoiding tough negotiations on immigration.
  2. Most political candidates you hear about are already in the running during the Invisible Primary phase. They're testing support and connections even before officially announcing a campaign.
  3. Senate Democrats aren't pushing harder on the shutdown issue because they fear losing power. Their leader prefers to maintain a controlled environment rather than risk unruly debates.

Matt's Five Points, October 12, 2018 — The Kavanaugh Circus is Democracy in Action

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. The Senate confirmation process can show democratic politics really happening. It's normal for people to clash and for the public to get involved, so calling it a circus might not be fair.
  2. Term limits for the Supreme Court could actually make things more political, not less. If every election focused on Court nominations, it could overshadow other important issues.
  3. When looking at polling data, it's tricky to connect it directly to elections. Just because many people oppose something doesn't mean they'll vote based on that issue.

The SCOTUS Nomination, Senate Procedure, and Democratic Strategy

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jun 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Supreme Court Senate Legislation Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Democrats can't block a Supreme Court nominee like Republicans did with Garland because they don't have a majority in the Senate. This means they can't stop the nomination process directly.
  2. If Democrats want to slow down the Senate's work to increase the costs of a nomination, they would need to use complicated strategies like dragging out debates or refusing to agree on routine procedures. However, this is likely to backfire politically.
  3. Since they probably can't stop the nomination, Democrats will likely focus on shaping public opinion and preparing for future elections rather than trying to defeat the nominee outright.