Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

CROSSPOST from 2007: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: George W. Bush et le Code Ezéchiel

99 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Religion History Political theory Biblical Interpretation
  1. George W. Bush mentioned biblical figures Gog and Magog while discussing the Middle East with Jacques Chirac. This shows how some leaders might connect their political actions with religious beliefs.
  2. The interpretations of biblical texts like Ezekiel can vary widely. Some scholars see historical events in these texts, while others look for modern connections.
  3. The United States' support for Israel can be influenced by religious views, unlike the more geopolitical perspective often taken in Europe.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-14 Sa

92 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Healthcare policy Social Policy Foreign Relations
  1. Economic growth in the G-5 has faced challenges due to policy choices, like the Reagan deficits and insufficient public investment. These choices have slowed growth compared to earlier times.
  2. ObamaCare has effectively controlled entitlement spending, shifting the focus to new financial issues. It's become clear that previous crises have changed over time.
  3. Wages for non-managerial workers have started to rise compared to managerial workers. This shift shows a significant change in the workforce that isn't just due to technology but reflects broader social dynamics.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-10 Su

92 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Economics Political parties
  1. NVIDIA's profits are not typical. They benefit from a unique position in the market, unlike many other companies whose profits are more stable and predictable.
  2. The concept of 'safe assets' is important in understanding economic stability. They can rise in value during tough times and provide liquidity, which gives certain countries, like the U.S., a special financial edge.
  3. The current state of AI technology is useful but limited. It can handle repetitive tasks well, but it still can't solve new problems that it hasn't been trained on.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-24 Tu

84 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Policy Election insights Public Opinion Current Events
  1. Consumers' expectations can shift based on political events, and that's something to pay attention to in economic forecasts.
  2. The rise of women's empowerment in writing and being heard was slow, but significant changes started around the year 1800.
  3. The distribution of goods in the Roman Empire heavily favored the Mediterranean, showing its central role in trade and economy.

DRAFT: Five Afterthoughts on "Slouching Towards Utopia": Friedrich von Hayek, Michael Polanyi, & Company...

84 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Political Economy Moral Philosophy Economic History
  1. The work in political economy and moral philosophy from the 1900s often comes from thinkers connected to the Vienna Circle. Their ideas shaped modern views in these fields.
  2. Natural issues like global warming and resource scarcity greatly impacted the economy throughout the 20th century. It's important to consider these environmental factors when studying economic history.
  3. Understanding different authors and theories, especially those related to socialism and welfare states, helps us grasp the changes in economic growth and social democracy since the late 19th century. Their insights remain relevant today.
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CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Economy Financial Stability Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-18 Sa

84 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Economics Government Administration
  1. Automation and AI are changing jobs in many industries. It could either lead to job losses or new kinds of jobs, just like what happened with tractors in farming a century ago.
  2. Students find it easier to ask ChatGPT questions instead of going to a teacher. This could mean they get less accurate answers, which is a concern for education.
  3. Economic forecasts are changing with the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. It’s an important factor for understanding the overall economy and its direction.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: John F. Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor, & Kevin Warsh Are Not Professional Analysts, But Rather Republican Courtiers

76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Policy Analysis Political Influence
  1. Kevin Warsh's role in politics shows how personal identity can outweigh professional expertise. He is seen more as a supporter of party lines rather than a strictly analytical voice.
  2. Several economists, like Cogan and Hubbard, are criticized for aligning their views with political agendas instead of relying on data. This raises questions about their credibility in economic discussions.
  3. The long-term decline in U.S. productivity is significant, and some economists downplay this reality. Ignoring the actual data trends can harm their reputations as credible professionals.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-22 Fr

76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion Misinformation Political Movements Elections Economics
  1. Real wages for non-managerial workers are growing stronger now than in the past due to a tight labor market. This growth has continued despite challenges like the pandemic and inflation.
  2. Media sources greatly influence people's opinions and political views, creating a divide in beliefs. Many Americans see their reality differently based on their news consumption.
  3. There are different kinds of populist leaders, but not all fit neatly into traditional categories. The motivations behind their actions can vary widely, affecting how they connect with their supporters.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-03 Tu

76 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Current Events Elections Public Engagement Political Commentary
  1. Bluesky is gaining popularity as a social media alternative to Twitter, recently surpassing 15 million users. It's becoming the top app in the US iOS App Store.
  2. Intel's progress with its 18A chip manufacturing process is under scrutiny, with some companies finding it not yet ready for high-volume production. There are mixed reports about its defect density, which Intel claims is healthy.
  3. Discussion around political engagement highlights a disconnect between parties and ordinary people. There's a call for stronger connections to avoid the decline of party participation and civic life.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: An Ur-Text by George Stigler for Dark Satanic Millian Liberalism, & Related Matters...

76 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Market Theory Capitalism Economic History Liberalism
  1. The market economy is seen not just for creating wealth, but for shaping character and virtues like self-discipline and resilience. This suggests that economic struggles can help people become better individuals.
  2. Some economists argue that uncertainty and risk of poverty are necessary for a society to function well. They believe without these challenges, people might not push themselves to improve.
  3. Critics of this perspective think that focusing on the hardships of capitalism ignores the real needs and experiences of everyday people. They see value in prosperity and security, not just in struggle and sacrifice.

A DRAFT Syllabus for Econ 113: American Economic History :: Spring 2025 :: UC Berkeley

76 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🚌 Education Economic History American history Higher education Social Issues
  1. American exceptionalism is a key theme in understanding the country's economic history, exploring what makes it unique compared to other nations.
  2. The course examines significant historical events, like the rise of manufacturing and the impact of immigration, which shaped the American economy over the centuries.
  3. Inequality and economic mobility are crucial topics, focusing on how these issues have evolved from the 1940s to the present day.

HOISTED FROM COMMENTS: RAFAEL KAUFMANN: Carving Nature at the Joints: Faithful Representation, the Platonic Dream, & the Unreasonable Near-Success of GPT LLM MAMLMs

69 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Philosophy Data science Automation
  1. Machines, like large language models, can imitate human language because they find patterns hidden in how we express ourselves. They simplify the chaos of our words into something easier to understand.
  2. Even though these models are good at predicting responses, they struggle with truly understanding the world. They can replicate language well, but grasping the deeper meaning remains a challenge.
  3. The hope is that with better training and understanding causal relationships, these models could evolve to not only imitate but truly comprehend the world around them.

Steampower, or Faërie for Today?

61 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
📚 Literature Fiction Poetry Analysis Authors Genres
  1. The steam engine in the 1800s was a major turning point in technology and industry. It paved the way for engineering careers and the growth of modern corporations.
  2. There's a temptation to explore fantasy worlds instead of focusing on practical history. Imagining magical places can be just as captivating as real advancements.
  3. Literature often discusses the magical and mundane aspects of life, revealing deeper meanings and connections. Books can blend reality with fantasy in fascinating ways.

ONE SLIDE: Working on the Summary Review Materials for Econ 135: History of Economic Growth: The Post-1870 MEG-Economy

61 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics Academic Growth History Teaching
  1. Most economic activity in history happened after 1870. This shows how rapidly the economy can grow in a short time.
  2. Students should have a simple, useful summary of post-1870 economic growth. This will help them during exams and in their future understanding.
  3. The summary should include both political-economic and technical aspects. It's important to see how these areas work together in shaping the economy.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-20 Mo

53 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Insurance History Environment
  1. Watching a video about the Bel Air Fire of 1961 can give you insight into historical events and their impacts. It's important to learn from past events to understand current issues better.
  2. Insurance costs for properties are changing and it's something to keep an eye on. Rising costs can affect how we plan our finances when it comes to home and property.
  3. Subscribing to informative newsletters can lead to valuable knowledge. Engaging with these types of content can help you stay updated and informed.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-11 We

23 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Finance War Policy Politics
  1. Quasars are super bright and energetic objects in space, powered by black holes consuming material. They help astronomers understand our universe better.
  2. Current economic policies, especially under recent U.S. leadership, are shaping the economy in complex ways, with stock market reactions being particularly important.
  3. Using AI can be helpful, but it's important to know when to rely on it. It can aid in tasks we could do ourselves but shouldn't replace deep learning and understanding.

Recent Notes...

23 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Public Policy Political Commentary Cultural analysis Political Philosophy
  1. Understanding C.P. Snow's idea of 'The Two Cultures' can help bridge the gap between technical and humanities disciplines. People can become smarter by learning from both sides.
  2. John Ganz is pointed out as a smart and hard-working person who could benefit from this balanced approach. Learning from different fields can enhance one's thinking and decision-making.
  3. It's important to encourage others to broaden their horizons, as this can lead to personal and professional growth. Sharing knowledge across different areas is valuable for everyone's development.

The 2018 "Slouching" Draft "Themes" Chapter

15 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
📚 Literature Non-fiction Critique Narrative History Culture
  1. The discussion explores multiple important themes that happened alongside the main events of the 20th century. It's important to look at history from different angles instead of just one big story.
  2. There are at least six significant things that shaped our world that often get overlooked. These aspects help us better understand the complexities of history.
  3. Widening our perspective helps us appreciate the richness of our past and how it affects our present and future. Recognizing these different themes can lead to a deeper understanding of society.

Recent Notes...

7 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🚌 Education Literacy Critical Thinking Philosophy Cultural Studies Theory
  1. C.P. Snow's The Two Cultures highlights the divide between the sciences and humanities. Learning more about both can make anyone smarter.
  2. John Ganz is an example of a hardworking person who could benefit from understanding the ideas in Snow's work.
  3. The goal of sharing this information is to help readers become smarter and enhance their understanding of important cultural concepts.

Fourteen-Lion Parade

0 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🏝 Travel Wildlife Nature Ecosystems Adventure
  1. In 2007, earthquakes changed the flow of the Savuti Channel, allowing it to become a year-round wetland again instead of just a seasonal one. This is important for the local ecosystem.
  2. A group of fourteen lions was observed moving quietly and stealthily to hunt. It's fascinating to see how they work together as a team.
  3. Having a skilled guide can really enhance the experience of wildlife watching. Good guides help you notice things you might miss on your own.