Astral Codex Ten • 19959 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
- There are two deceptive moves to watch for: using related-but-different facts to dismiss real complaints (the malicious streetlight effect) and overstating results to be “directionally correct” when the evidence doesn’t support it.
- Accurate counting matters — major crime has generally fallen, and explanations like reporting bias or better medical care don’t fully negate that trend, so it’s important to correct false claims about crime rates.
- Fixing misleading crime claims can feel like dismissing people’s everyday experiences of disorder, so it’s best to treat major crime statistics and local disorder (e.g., open-air drug markets, tent encampments) as separate issues and address each directly.