CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

43 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Inventory Mortgages
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 D’s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak

52 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 2.3% below the recent peak.
  2. Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below the recent peak.
  3. House prices are elevated based on different measures like affordability and real return.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

66 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
  1. In Q3, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low
  2. Quarterly increase in mortgage debt decreased in Q3
  3. Most homeowners have large equity cushions in their homes
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Markets Real Estate Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.

The "Home ATM" Stays Mostly Closed in Q2

90 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
  1. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was slightly positive in Q2 2023.
  2. Homeowners switched to using home equity loans (2nd loans) to extract equity from their homes.
  3. Mortgage debt as a percent of GDP is at 47.9%, down from the peak during the housing bust.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August

86 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
  1. California home sales dropped 18.9% year over year in August
  2. The National Association of Realtors is expected to report sales of 4.10 million SAAR in August
  3. Housing economist Tom Lawler predicts sales of 4.07 million SAAR for August

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October

66 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
  1. The article provides a final look at local housing markets in October.
  2. There is an increase in new listings year-over-year in October.
  3. The author plans to include comparisons to 2019 data starting next month.

Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year

100 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Tracking rents is important for understanding housing market dynamics.
  2. Surge in household formation was noticed in 2021 due to increase in rents.
  3. Work-from-home has contributed to the surge in household formation.

Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

86 implied HN points • 11 Sep 23
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, reducing the impact of potential foreclosures.
  2. Only a small percentage of homeowners with a mortgage are in negative equity, showing a stable housing market.
  3. Low mortgage rates, especially fixed rates, and substantial homeowner equity means few will face financial difficulties.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year

43 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Indices Markets
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Data Economic Trends Housing supply Home Sales
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in July

90 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
💰 Finance Housing Markets
  1. National Association of Realtors scheduled to release July existing home sales statistics.
  2. Expectation of 4.06 million SAAR sales for July.
  3. Opportunity to access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial of CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

66 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
  1. Existing home sales in October were at a rate of 3.94 million, a 0.5% decrease from September.
  2. Housing economist Tom Lawler provided an early projection for existing home sales.
  3. Read the full post by subscribing to the CalculatedRisk newsletter for a 7-day free trial.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.82 million SAAR in November

57 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
  1. Existing-home sales increased to 3.82 million SAAR in November, breaking a five-month decline
  2. Housing inventory decreased seasonally in November to 1.13 million units
  3. Year-over-year sales declined by 7.3% compared to November 2022, marking the twenty-seventh consecutive month of decline

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

66 implied HN points • 10 Nov 23
  1. Early reporting markets show some increase in sales in October.
  2. The author is tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Starting next month, the author plans to add comparisons to 2019 data.

30-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 8.0%

71 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
  1. 30-year mortgage rates have hit 8.0%, which is significant for the housing market.
  2. California home sales were down 21.5% year-over-year in September, showing a challenging market.
  3. There is a lower level of market competitiveness in California, with more opportunities for homebuyers due to slower sales and increased inventory.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August

86 implied HN points • 11 Aug 23
  1. This post provides an overview of the current state of the housing market in mid-August.
  2. The housing market in July saw new listings near a pandemic low.
  3. To access the full content and archives, a 7-day free trial of CalculatedRisk Newsletter is available.

Asking Rents Down 1.1% Year-over-year

57 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
  1. Asking rents have declined by 1.1% year-over-year.
  2. Household formation has slowed sharply affecting rental market dynamics.
  3. Rental prices are on a downward trend, with negative year-over-year growth shown consistently.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November

62 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index showed a 1.0% year-over-year increase in August, with further positive trends expected in September.
  2. Multiple measures indicate increasing house prices, with some reaching all-time highs in September.
  3. The Case-Shiller index is down 3.1% from its peak in real terms, taking several years to return to previous highs.

Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in September

66 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
  1. Single-family mortgage delinquency rate for Fannie and Freddie remained mostly unchanged in September.
  2. US serious mortgage delinquency rate dropped to an all-time low in August, according to CoreLogic.
  3. Predictions suggest there won't be a large wave of single-family foreclosures due to solid lending standards and homeowner equity.

The impact of 7% Mortgage Rates

86 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
  1. 30-year mortgage rates are currently at 7.11% for top tier scenarios.
  2. This is the longest period above 7% since last October.
  3. Rates like this have not been seen since 2001, except for last year.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

62 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
  1. Early reporting local markets in October showed some increase in sales compared to previous months.
  2. Closed sales were down year-over-year in October due to higher mortgage rates earlier in the year.
  3. Active inventory in certain markets saw significant changes, with some areas showing a drastic decrease in inventory from the previous year.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

43 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
  1. Asking rents have not changed much year-over-year.
  2. Apartment rents are slightly cheaper compared to the previous year.
  3. National single-family rent growth is stable and slower than previous years.

New Home Sales decrease to 697,000 Annual Rate in June

86 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. New Home Sales decreased to 697,000 Annual Rate in June.
  2. Median New Home Price is Down 16.4% from the Peak.
  3. Sales of new single-family houses in June 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

66 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
  1. This post focuses on analyzing local housing markets in September.
  2. Closed sales in September primarily came from contracts signed in July and August.
  3. The author tracks around 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.