GEM Energy Analytics

GEM Energy Analytics provides insights on the European energy sector, focusing on the impact of solar and other renewable energies on electricity markets, pricing, import-export dynamics, and energy storage solutions. It addresses challenges such as solar cannibalization, policy support, and the flexibility required for efficient energy use.

Solar Energy Electricity Markets Renewable Energy Pricing Energy Storage Import/Export Dynamics Energy Policy Renewable Integration Energy Flexibility

The hottest Substack posts of GEM Energy Analytics

And their main takeaways

Some consequences of solar on the electricity markets

899 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24

Solar energy is growing quickly and changing the electricity market. As solar power is cheaper to produce, it often leads to lower prices during sunny times.
The value of solar energy isn’t highest when the sun is shining most. It’s more valuable during peak demand times like morning and evening.
As more solar energy is used, the need for traditional power sources is decreasing, which is affecting imports, exports, and the costs of maintaining power reserves.

Germany under the sun

459 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Sustainability Solar Power Policy

Solar energy in Germany is rapidly increasing, with over one gigawatt installed each month. This growth is important because it helps meet their energy goals for the future.
Solar power is very concentrated during certain months. In winter, it barely impacts energy supply, while spring and summer see a big increase in generation.
Negative prices for solar energy are rising, meaning that sometimes the energy is worth less than nothing during high production times. This creates challenges for both producers and market management.

European power reserves: part 2 - aFRR (and how solar is impacting it)

279 implied HN points • 24 Jun 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Renewable Energy Electricity Markets Solar Power

The automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve (aFRR) is crucial for keeping the electricity system balanced in Europe, especially in countries like Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Solar power is increasingly affecting aFRR prices. When there is a lot of solar energy, traditional power plants are less relied upon, which can lead to higher prices for flexibility in power reserves.
As renewable energy grows, power systems will constantly switch between having too much and too little flexibility. This means power reserve prices could go up significantly during sunny periods.

Focus on European power reserves: part 1 - FCR

279 implied HN points • 31 May 24

🕹 Technology Energy Storage Renewables Market Analysis

Frequency Containment Reserves (FCR) are the fastest type of power reserves in Europe, helping to keep the electricity grid stable as more renewable energy sources are integrated.
FCR prices can vary significantly and are influenced by solar energy production, with periods of high solar generation leading to higher FCR prices due to a lack of flexible energy sources.
The rise of large batteries in the market is changing FCR dynamics, and while they add flexibility, they can also lead to price fluctuations depending on the availability of renewable energy.

The rise of vertical solar

459 implied HN points • 08 Apr 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Sustainability Environmental Policy

The cost of solar panels has dropped a lot, making it cheaper to install solar energy systems. This means other costs like labor become more important to consider.
Vertical solar panels can be helpful because they can generate energy at different times of the day. This helps capture more value from solar energy by producing power when it's needed most.
Using vertical solar opens up new possibilities, like installing them as fences or along roads. This can save space and also provide benefits beyond just energy generation.

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Impact of solar on electricity prices: focus on Germany and Spain

619 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Electricity Markets Solar Power Energy Policy

Solar power is growing quickly in Europe and is expected to double by 2027. This means more solar energy will be available to meet demand.
In markets like Germany and Spain, solar energy lowers electricity prices because it has very low costs compared to fossil fuels. This creates a connection between the amount of solar energy produced and the price of electricity.
Solar generation varies by season and day, impacting prices differently. For example, prices can drop significantly on sunny Sundays when demand is low and solar output is high.

Solar and the need for more flexibility

219 implied HN points • 13 May 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Electricity Markets Sustainability

Solar energy is growing fast and becoming a main part of our energy systems. This growth is due to lower costs, a global effort to cut emissions, and how easy it is to set up solar technology.
As solar power becomes more popular, we need to be more flexible with how we use and produce energy. This flexibility is important to handle times when there's too much solar energy or not enough.
The rising use of solar power is changing energy prices and increasing the value of flexible energy sources, like batteries and demand response systems, which can help balance supply and demand.

Some data and thoughts on the complementarity between wind and solar

419 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy Policy Sustainability Geography Climate change

The combination of wind and solar power works better in different places. For example, Germany benefits more from wind, while southern countries like Greece get more from solar energy because of their climate.
Wind and solar energy do not produce electricity at the same rate all the time. There are many hours when either one is low, so we need good storage solutions like batteries to keep the lights on.
Geographical differences matter a lot in how we can balance renewable energy. Countries with rivers can store energy easily, but places like Germany and France have a hard time sharing power because their wind and solar outputs are similar.

The Emergence of Duck Curves in Europe

319 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Renewables Climate Policy Market Analysis

Solar energy in Europe has grown a lot in recent years. By the end of 2024, solar power capacity will nearly double, helping to meet electricity needs.
Duck curves are becoming more common, showing that solar energy creates cheaper electricity prices in the afternoon. This trend is seen in countries like Greece, Germany, and Spain.
The impact of solar energy isn't just in Europe; places like Australia are seeing similar effects. As solar use increases, it changes the price dynamics in electricity markets.

On incentives for rooftop and utility-scale solar

299 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Solar energy Renewable Energy Energy Policy Market Dynamics Incentives

Rooftop solar and utility-scale solar are quite different, even though they both use the same technology. Rooftop solar is small and connected to homes, while utility-scale solar is large and functions like a power plant.
Incentives play a big role in how these solar systems behave in the market. Rooftop solar often lacks good incentives to respond to price changes, whereas utility-scale solar can better react to market prices.
Both types of solar can be improved by better support schemes and incentives. It's important not just to generate energy but also to maximize its value in the market, ensuring more efficient and responsive use of solar power.

Capture price of imports/exports in Germany

719 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23

💰 Finance Energy Market Renewable Energy

Germany often exports electricity during winter and imports more in summer. This pattern is changing due to the retirement of nuclear power and other factors.
The prices for exported electricity are usually low because they happen when there’s lots of renewable energy like wind or solar, which can lead to negative prices.
As renewable energy grows, Germany is importing electricity when prices are high, while exporting when prices are low. This is making it hard to measure the value of electricity trades in traditional ways.

Updates on Spain (as of April 2024)

179 implied HN points • 22 Apr 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Renewables Market Trends Solar energy

Spain is currently experiencing negative prices in the energy market, meaning they pay less than zero for electricity. This is a first for the country and has happened multiple times in April 2024.
There is a record amount of energy stored in Spanish hydro reservoirs, which is leading to very low electricity prices. These reservoirs have more energy than has been seen in the past ten years.
The capture rates for solar energy are extremely low, with some months showing just 20%. This indicates that solar power is not being used efficiently, especially when prices are so low.

Hydropower and seasonal electricity storage

339 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Storage Decarbonization

Hydropower with large reservoirs can store energy for a long time, helping balance electricity supply when renewable sources like wind and solar are low.
As we move towards renewable energy, seasonal storage will be essential. However, using hydrogen for storage can be very expensive.
Countries with more hydropower can better manage their energy needs, especially during peak demands, giving them an advantage over those that rely on costly alternatives.

Heat maps on Germany: renewables and prices

239 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewables Energy Data Visualization Sustainability

Germany's renewable energy sources like solar and wind are working well together, especially during the winter. This means Germany can rely on both types of energy to help meet their needs.
Heat maps show that solar energy has a big impact on electricity prices, especially during sunny afternoons in the spring and summer. When there's lots of solar power, prices can drop.
Comparing Germany with France on energy prices, we see Germany benefits from more solar energy during the day. This can lead to lower prices in Germany, especially in the afternoon.

Limits to growth: solar edition

599 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar energy Sustainability Environmental Policy

Solar energy is growing quickly, but it has limits. Even though many people are excited about its future, there are economic reasons that might slow its growth.
The value of solar electricity is decreasing as more solar power is added to the system. This means that while solar may be cheap to produce, its market value might drop, making it less profitable.
Government support, like subsidies, could help solar energy continue to grow despite these challenges. However, it's unclear how committed governments will be to supporting solar if its market value drops significantly.

Solar capture price in Germany: details on 2023 and prospects for 2024

339 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Solar energy Renewable Energy Energy Policy Sustainability

Solar energy in Germany shows strong seasonal patterns, with the best month generating up to 12 times more power than the worst month. This means energy production is not consistent throughout the year.
The average solar capture price in 2023 is 72 €/MWh, which is a capture rate of 75%. However, this rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to the increase in solar capacity.
Germany is rapidly expanding its solar capacity, aiming for 215 GW by 2030. This increased capacity can lead to lower energy prices, especially during times of high solar generation.

Financial Contract-for-Differences

319 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23

💰 Finance Renewable Energy Investment Strategies

The EU is making Contract-for-Differences the main way to support new renewable and nuclear energy projects. This will help create stable financial conditions for these investments.
A traditional CfD can remove market price incentives for energy producers, leading them to produce electricity regardless of demand. This is not ideal because it can flood the market and reduce overall value.
The new idea of a financial CfD separates payments from actual production, giving producers a goal to increase the value of their electricity instead of just maximizing how much they produce. This could lead to better management of resources.

Baseload price and the support to renewables

259 implied HN points • 12 Dec 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy Policy Electricity Markets Environmental Economics Sustainability

Germany's energy market has seen a shift where renewable energy support is now funded by the federal budget instead of consumers. This change eases the financial burden on consumers.
The price for electricity from renewables is influenced by baseload prices. Lower baseload prices can increase the financial needs for funding renewable projects.
Support mechanisms like feed-in tariffs and market premiums help renewable producers when market prices drop. However, these systems also mean that funding needs can fluctuate with market prices.

Capture price of renewables: miscellaneous

319 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy markets Solar Power

The capture price of renewables, especially solar and wind, is decreasing as their output increases. This means that more solar and wind power leads to lower market prices for electricity.
In specific regions like Spain and Germany, capture prices can drop significantly during peak production months. It shows that when there's a lot of solar energy, prices can actually fall below expectations.
New financial tools are emerging to help manage the risks associated with capturing renewable energy prices. These tools aim to provide more stability for energy producers as renewable energy becomes more common.

Online resources on electricity and energy

339 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Sustainability Policy Research Data Tools

There are many websites that provide valuable data on electricity generation and energy prices, especially in Europe. These resources can help understand the energy market better.
Tools like Ember Climate and Electricity Maps offer useful visualizations to track emissions and power generation in various regions.
The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration are great sources for reliable energy data and insights globally.

An introduction to (green) Hydrogen

299 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Sustainability Decarbonization Renewables

Hydrogen is seen as important for reducing carbon emissions, but it's not a complete solution. It can help in specific tough areas but isn't the only answer.
Producing hydrogen currently causes pollution because most of it is made from natural gas or coal. Only a tiny bit comes from clean methods like renewable energy.
Green hydrogen is expensive to produce, and its high costs mean it will be limited. It's better used in areas where alternatives like electricity don't fit, not for everyday home heating or personal cars.

Comparing the Pace of Solar and Batteries

319 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Electric Vehicles Energy Storage Market Trends Sustainability

Solar energy is growing really fast, and it's changing the way we think about energy costs. Europe is seeing a huge increase in solar capacity, with Germany leading the way.
Batteries, especially large-scale ones and home batteries, are important for storing solar energy, but they still can't keep up with solar growth. More batteries are coming, but their impact is still limited right now.
Electric vehicles (EVs) can help with energy storage too, but we need better support and smart systems for them to work effectively. Right now, we face challenges in making the most of EVs to store solar energy.

Solar cannibalization: more details

399 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar energy Market Dynamics Energy Policy Sustainability

Solar energy is growing rapidly, but it faces a challenge called solar cannibalization, where high production leads to lower market prices. This means that when solar output is high, producers earn less money.
The effect of solar cannibalization is expected to increase as more solar capacity comes online, especially during sunny months when energy supply exceeds demand. This could result in financial strain for solar power projects.
Solutions that help manage electricity demand, like flexible uses of power and smart technology, may not be enough to balance the market. Policymakers need to better understand these dynamics as solar capacity expands.

The imperfect LCOE and CfD

439 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Renewable Energy Electricity Markets Cost Analysis Sustainability

LCOE is not a reliable measure for wind and solar energy. It can mislead comparisons and decisions about energy costs.
The value of electricity changes over time, especially for renewables. When the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, electricity prices can drop, making more generation less valuable.
Support programs like Contract-for-Difference (CfD) might help producers but can hurt the overall system. They do not encourage efficient energy production based on market prices.

Energy-as-a-service

239 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23

🕹 Technology Energy Innovation Services Sustainability Renewables

Energy-as-a-service is a new way to think about energy. Instead of paying for the electricity you use, you would pay for the services it provides, like heating or lighting.
Mini-grids in Africa show how flexible energy solutions can work. These small systems can innovate with different pricing models to meet local needs.
Smart technology could make it easier for consumers to handle their energy use. If providers take care of the complexity, people could just enjoy reliable services without worrying about fluctuating prices.

Thoughts on the Energy Transition

219 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy transition Sustainability Renewable Energy Climate change Environmental Policy

A presentation on the Energy Transition is available for download. It's based on various sources and designed for live discussions.
The slides alone do not explain everything, so the spoken context is important for understanding fully.
Feedback and contact are encouraged, showing that the creator values input from others.

Market price and solar: a simple model

219 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Energy Policy Market Dynamics Environmental Impact

As solar energy grows, market prices for electricity tend to drop. This happens because more solar energy can lead to overproduction, causing prices to fall.
There's a limit to how much solar energy can be valuable. If too many solar panels are added, the overall market value can actually go down, which means the captured value for producers diminishes.
The way consumers use electricity will change, but it's not easy. They might shift their usage to match solar energy production, but many obstacles could prevent this from happening.

The solar cannibalization effect

359 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Solar energy Energy Policy Market Dynamics Environmental Impact

Solar energy is growing quickly in Europe, with expectations to reach significant capacity by 2030. This could lead to solar generation being a large part of the electricity supply.
As more solar energy is produced, captured prices for electricity are decreasing because solar generates more when prices are lower. This is called the cannibalization effect.
To deal with the challenges of lower prices and a high concentration of solar power, solutions like energy storage and flexible systems are needed, but the necessary regulations are still catching up.

Where to put solar for maximal emissions reduction?

199 implied HN points • 18 Aug 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Carbon Emissions Solar Power Energy Policy Sustainability

Solar panels help reduce carbon emissions, but the best place to put them matters a lot. Areas that rely heavily on coal or gas for power see bigger benefits when switching to solar.
The amount of energy a solar panel can produce depends on where it is installed. For example, sunnier places generate more energy, meaning they can offset more emissions.
The environmental impact also varies based on how solar panels are made and installed. In some cases, it can take just a few months to offset emissions, while in others, it might take many years.

Green Hydrogen, bidding zones, and the green grid exception

139 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy Policy Sustainability Environmental Economics

Green hydrogen production in Europe must meet strict rules to ensure it's sourced from renewable energy. These rules include standards for additionality, geographic, and temporal correlation to confirm the electricity is genuinely green.
The 'green grid' exception allows hydrogen producers in certain high-renewable bidding zones to bypass some of these strict rules. This means they can count their hydrogen as renewable without developing additional renewable energy sources.
As European countries consider increasing the number of bidding zones, there are concerns that this might lead to less efficient use of renewable electricity. It's important to ensure that the hydrogen production doesn’t divert green energy from more direct uses like heating or electric vehicles.

Don't let wind power be blown out

179 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Energy Policy Sustainability

Wind and solar energy work well together, especially because they produce power at different times of the year. This balance is important for a reliable energy system.
The wind energy industry is facing challenges like rising costs and lower investor confidence, making it harder to reach energy goals in the EU.
Solar energy is booming, but if we lean too much towards it, we might mess up the balance with wind energy. Both are needed for creating green hydrogen and meeting heating demands effectively.

Will renewables lead to a consumption rebound?

259 implied HN points • 11 May 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy consumption Environmental Economics

Electricity prices are changing a lot due to the rise of renewable energy sources. This fluctuation can create opportunities for consumers to save money by using power when it's cheapest.
To make the most of these price changes, electricity tariffs should adjust in real-time, encouraging users to shift their power usage to times when energy is abundant and cheap.
However, this adjustment in tariffs could lead to increased overall electricity consumption, as people might use more energy when the costs are low, which may go against goals for energy efficiency.

Volatility - a new normal in day-ahead markets

259 implied HN points • 05 May 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Electricity Markets Sustainability Energy Policy

Renewable energy sources like solar and wind are rapidly increasing in Europe, with goals set to nearly double their capacity by 2030. This is important because it shows a big shift towards cleaner energy.
The electricity market is experiencing more volatility, making it harder to balance supply and demand. This means that energy prices can change a lot, sometimes going negative when there's too much renewable energy and not enough demand.
To deal with these changes, strategies like energy storage, demand-side response, and dynamic pricing are becoming increasingly important. These can help manage when and how energy is used to keep the power system stable.

Fostering Flexibility Through Electricity Tariff

159 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy consumption Sustainability

Electricity prices can vary a lot, especially with more wind and solar power. This means we need to be flexible about when we use electricity.
Better tariff structures can encourage people to use electricity when it's cheaper and more abundant, like during sunny or windy times.
A new tariff system should charge people based on their electricity usage in real-time and how much they can use, rather than having a flat rate. This helps balance energy use with available resources.

Grid Upgrade - Part 1: the reasons

139 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Sustainability Renewable Energy Infrastructure Decarbonization

We need to upgrade our electricity grid because electricity use is rising with new technology and applications. This includes electric cars and heating, which all require more power.
The grid must handle a lot more energy generation from renewable sources like wind and solar. This means we need to build more infrastructure to support the increased output.
Many new energy projects are located far from where the electricity is needed. To solve this, we must improve connections and cooperation between regions to reliably deliver energy where it’s required.

Grid Upgrade - Part 2: what lies ahead

139 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Energy Policy Renewable Energy Infrastructure Environmental Impact

The electricity grid is growing slowly and facing congestion. This means it may get overcrowded and not work as well as it should.
Local opposition can delay grid projects, making them take longer and cost more. People sometimes do not want new lines near their homes, which leads to complications.
Grid fees are likely to increase as upgrades are needed. As more money is spent on improving the grid, utility bills may go up for everyone.

Thoughts on the contract-for-differences (CfD)

179 implied HN points • 31 May 23

💰 Finance Energy markets Investment Strategies Renewable Energy Risk management Policy Analysis

A contract-for-difference (CfD) helps energy producers by giving them a stable price. This way, they won't lose money if market prices drop.
CfDs can reduce the risk of high profits during energy crises, aiming to keep electricity prices lower for consumers. They're designed to share some of the financial risks between producers and the government.
The success of CfDs depends on accurately predicting future energy prices, which is really hard. If prices drop too low, it could hurt new energy projects and make it tougher for power producers to plan.

How cheap will solar projects get?

159 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Solar energy Renewable Energy Sustainability Environmental Policy

The cost of solar projects has gone down a lot over the last decade, but it is expected to decrease by only about a third in the next decade. This is still good, but not as impressive as before.
Solar module prices were dropping fast, but that trend is slowing down. Improvements in manufacturing are now changing more slowly and the costs of projects could squeeze profits for developers.
Oversizing solar projects, where the installed capacity is greater than the inverter capacity, might become common. This is partly because transmission costs aren’t increasing as quickly as module prices.

The bright future of solar

119 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Solar Power Investment Trends Global Market Technological Advancements

Solar energy is growing fast around the world, especially with China leading in solar panel installation. Countries like Australia and Germany still produce more solar energy per person.
Investment in solar power is booming, with a significant chunk of renewable investments going into solar projects. This trend shows that people are serious about switching to cleaner energy.
The future looks bright for solar installations, with expectations for rapid growth in capacity. However, challenges like grid limitations and dependence on imports from China could affect this growth.

Can electric vehicles provide some flexibility to the grid?

139 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23

🌞 Climate & Environment Electric Vehicles Renewable Energy

Electric vehicles (EVs) could help us use renewable energy better by shifting when we consume power. This means charging EVs when there's a lot of renewable energy available.
The amount of energy EVs can store is significant, but it's not enough to fully cover all renewable energy peaks. We still need other ways to manage energy demand.
To make EV charging more effective and encourage cheaper energy use, we need smart meters and dynamic pricing. This way, people can charge their cars when electricity prices are low.