The hottest Energy markets Substack posts right now

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Digital Fog

Doomberg • 6819 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. Viral videos and footage are often reused or misattributed during crises, so you can’t assume something is real just because it looks authentic or isn’t AI-made.
  2. Curating segmented social media feeds and even training a fresh account to follow one side’s sources helps reveal different narratives and spot disinformation.
  3. Comparing coverage across international outlets, including adversarial ones, uncovers details and biases that mainstream Western media may downplay or miss.

Roundup #79: The revenge of macroeconomics

Noahpinion • 19706 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Large government borrowing can contribute to higher inflation when monetary policy accommodates it, so deficits and fiscal policy matter for price stability.
  2. If AI makes answers effortless, people may lose the incentive to learn and the shared stock of general knowledge could shrink, though AI’s errors might occasionally produce new discoveries.
  3. Blocking key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz pushes up oil and commodity prices, raising inflation and damaging oil‑using industries even as some producers profit.

90% of the Law

Doomberg • 8591 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. The war in Iran is rattling energy markets, sending crude, LNG, coal, and refined fuel prices sharply higher and creating volatile moves like the Brent–WTI spread swinging to parity and back.
  2. China has told refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports to prioritize domestic needs, a move that will likely cause regional shortages and big price gaps for refined fuels if Middle East flows stay disrupted.
  3. The US is a major oil producer and net exporter, so its refineries will run harder and raise demand for WTI; but such price spikes usually trigger short-term economic contraction and longer-term boosts to crude supply alongside fractured, protectionist energy markets.

Monopoly Round-Up: The Epstein Class Launches a War

BIG by Matt Stoller • 35524 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. A U.S.- and Israeli-led strike on Iran has escalated into a volatile regional conflict of drone and missile strikes that could disrupt oil markets, strain military munitions, and cause wider economic and human costs.
  2. Wealthy Gulf rulers, Western banks, tech firms, and media investors form a close transnational elite that funds big deals and helps shape foreign policy, while regimes outside that network—like Iran—are treated as expendable.
  3. There is a growing split between this elite class and the public: elites take short-term, risky actions assuming others will handle the fallout, while soldiers, ordinary people, and markets bear the consequences, even as monopoly and antitrust battles reshape the economy.

Duration Risk

Doomberg • 5884 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Social media and algorithms are amplifying propaganda about the war, feeding half-truths and shaping public opinion toward narrow narratives.
  2. Politicians are quick to use war-related shocks as political ammunition, blaming opponents for immediate pains like rising gas prices.
  3. The conflict has already moved energy markets sharply—Brent/WTI spreads, LNG prices, and coal all jumped in days—so short-term price action is a key signal for how broader economic fallout may unfold.
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War Dashboard

Doomberg • 7567 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. A major conflict in the Middle East has started and energy markets are likely to move sharply when futures trading opens tonight.
  2. Signs like a potential Strait of Hormuz shutdown and insurers pulling tanker coverage point to real supply risk, so energy prices will probably rise significantly.
  3. Markets act as real-time sensors that cut through social media noise, so watching prices and trading activity is the best way to infer what’s actually happening on the ground.

A Brief History of Times

Doomberg • 8466 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy markets
  1. The administration is pushing oil companies to invest in Venezuelan oil to help lower prices, but Exxon warns Venezuela is currently uninvestable and needs major legal and commercial reforms before it would return.
  2. Exxon’s disciplined, long-term, risk-averse culture clashes with the president’s improvisational, rhetoric-driven, fast-changing approach, creating clear tension between the company and the administration.
  3. That clash matters beyond headlines: the dispute could have big effects on energy markets and U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding how the U.S. handles Venezuela and its posture toward Russia in the coming years.

A Flywheel of Chaos

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. The Federal Reserve is pursuing a modest, gradual expansion of its balance sheet so far, and a truly large round of monetary printing would likely mean multi‑trillion dollar measures rather than the current pace. This gradual path could be forced higher by major shocks like recession, financial war, or kinetic war.
  2. The war with Iran and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already pushed energy prices up and raised the risk of sustained supply shocks, stagflation, and rising Treasury yields. If those energy and financial stresses cascade, they could drive much larger fiscal deficits and a bigger Fed balance sheet response.
  3. Given the elevated risk of stagflation and political/financial cascades, prioritizing scarce, high‑quality assets and commodities while holding cash equivalents makes sense; a three‑pillar approach (profitable equities, commodities/hard money, and cash) offers better balance than a simple 60/40 in this environment.

Top Links 1031 The gas price shock. Vietnamese coffee for the GDR. The completely political Keynes. Paraprosdokian.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Natural gas prices have surged recently, which is worrying for energy markets, but the spike is still far below the peak seen in 2022.
  2. The links highlight surprising historical and cultural connections—like Vietnamese coffee showing up in the GDR—illustrating how global trade and culture produce unexpected encounters.
  3. Economic ideas are presented as political choices, emphasizing that Keynesian policies and similar approaches are shaped by politics as much as by theory.

Matt Pottinger: Trump Could End the War Tomorrow. I Don’t Think He Will.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 389 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🌐 International Energy markets
  1. The president said he could declare the Iran war over right now and claimed key objectives, like rolling back Iran’s weapons programs, have been met.
  2. At the same time he kept emphasizing reasons to keep fighting long enough to make results stick, suggesting an impulse to “finish the job” rather than quit early.
  3. A former deputy national security adviser thinks the president probably won’t take the offered off‑ramp and is more likely to let the conflict continue for weeks to ensure durable outcomes.

Hits and Misses

Doomberg • 8386 implied HN points • 14 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. Growing subscribers and smart product launches create real momentum, letting organizations pursue bigger projects like books and successful sister publications.
  2. Energy and geopolitical forecasts tended to be accurate—especially around Venezuela and oil/gas market dynamics—but expectations of rapid federal spending cuts failed because political will was absent.
  3. Honest postmortems on hits and misses improve analysis, and offering exclusive content to paying subscribers helps retention and growth.

Killing Khamenei: Regime-Change Roulette in a Powder-Keg World

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 407 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. A US–Israeli decapitation strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader removed a key figure but probably won’t guarantee the regime’s collapse. Iran’s overlapping institutions mean it could become a harder-line military junta, descend into a messy power struggle, or wage prolonged resistance.
  2. The attack undercuts arms-control credibility and signals that diplomacy may not protect states, so regional powers are likely to race to build, harden, and disperse nuclear or other deterrent capabilities. That incentive structure makes proliferation and future crises more likely.
  3. This war has no clear endgame, strains US military resources needed to deter rivals elsewhere, and risks serious economic disruption by threatening oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz. It also normalizes leader-targeting and preventive decapitation tactics, increasing the chance of catastrophic escalation.

China Speed

Doomberg • 6650 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. When China makes a sector a national priority it uses subsidies, IP acquisition, and lax oversight to propel state-backed companies to global dominance.
  2. China now dominates auto manufacturing and electric vehicle sales—producing over 30 million vehicles a year and exporting lots of parts—which threatens foreign automakers and helps cut its oil dependence and urban pollution.
  3. China sits on the world’s largest shale gas and huge shale oil resources but has struggled with technical and geological barriers; recent signs suggest it may be close to unlocking those resources, which could shake up global energy markets.

March 11, 2026

Letters from an American • 29 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. President Trump says the war with Iran is nearly over, but Iran is resisting, rejecting ceasefires, and shows no sign of accepting an immediate end.
  2. Iran’s mining of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on oil infrastructure have raised global energy prices and disrupted shipping and supply chains for many industrial goods.
  3. The conflict is already costly and chaotic — with U.S. casualties, heavy munitions use, likely civilian harm from a school strike, and no clear U.S. endgame as allies disagree on how long to fight.

March 9, 2026

Letters from an American • 31 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy markets
  1. Trump pursued a rapid strike-and-regime-change approach toward Iran without a clear long-term plan, and the attack backfired as Iran named a harder-line successor and the administration even discussed targeting him.
  2. The conflict has snarled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driven oil to near-record highs, and threatened global energy and fertilizer supplies, prompting investors and tech companies to rethink Gulf investments.
  3. Domestically, the war and other scandals have weakened Trump politically as he pressures Congress to pass restrictive voting laws, while a fragile Republican majority and legal and budget tools in Congress could constrain his actions.

Top Links 974 Silver v. oil. Price wars in China & Beijing's war games. Foucault on the villain's lair.

Chartbook • 557 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Silver’s price surged in 2025, more than doubling and breaking a 45-year record.
  2. In futures markets a troy ounce of silver is trading at a higher dollar value than a barrel of oil, an unusual inversion of commodity prices.
  3. There are price wars in China and Beijing is conducting war games, signaling rising geopolitical and economic tensions; the discussion also invokes Foucault’s idea of the villain’s lair to frame questions of power and menace.

This Year in Gas

Doomberg • 11529 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Energy is essential for life and the economy, and all types of energy will be consumed to meet demand.
  2. Energy prices are very sensitive to supply changes, so small shifts can lead to big price swings.
  3. Natural gas is becoming increasingly important as a cleaner fuel and could even compete with oil in the future.

October Surprise

Doomberg • 7068 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Energy markets
  1. Iran launched a significant missile attack on Israel that successfully hit multiple military bases, which surprised many observers.
  2. This attack is causing a lot of concern in the energy markets, as there are fears Israel might retaliate by targeting Iranian oil facilities, potentially disrupting global oil supplies.
  3. Interestingly, the potential for major escalation seems lower now, as the situation might lead to a steady state of tensions rather than outright conflict.

Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

Capture price of renewables: miscellaneous

GEM Energy Analytics • 319 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy markets
  1. The capture price of renewables, especially solar and wind, is decreasing as their output increases. This means that more solar and wind power leads to lower market prices for electricity.
  2. In specific regions like Spain and Germany, capture prices can drop significantly during peak production months. It shows that when there's a lot of solar energy, prices can actually fall below expectations.
  3. New financial tools are emerging to help manage the risks associated with capturing renewable energy prices. These tools aim to provide more stability for energy producers as renewable energy becomes more common.

Thoughts on the contract-for-differences (CfD)

GEM Energy Analytics • 179 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. A contract-for-difference (CfD) helps energy producers by giving them a stable price. This way, they won't lose money if market prices drop.
  2. CfDs can reduce the risk of high profits during energy crises, aiming to keep electricity prices lower for consumers. They're designed to share some of the financial risks between producers and the government.
  3. The success of CfDs depends on accurately predicting future energy prices, which is really hard. If prices drop too low, it could hurt new energy projects and make it tougher for power producers to plan.

Ancova Energy Markets Update

Ancova • 58 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Crude oil prices are holding up despite increased U.S. storage, supported by Asian demand and high U.S. exports.
  2. U.S. O&G rig count decreased, with oil rigs taking a major hit while natural gas rigs increased slightly.
  3. Natural gas prices are rising due to colder temperatures, lower production, and increased LNG output, impacting both demand and pricing.

Ancova Energy Markets Update

Ancova • 39 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Crude oil prices facing pressure due to potential policy changes and market speculation.
  2. U.S. rig count remains relatively stable, with minor fluctuations across major basins.
  3. Natural gas market experiencing price volatility, influenced by factors like weather and export activities.

Ancova Energy Markets Update

Ancova • 19 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. The crude oil market has seen a sharp rebound due to OPEC+ cuts and increased demand, keeping prices above $80/bbl.
  2. The U.S rig count rose by nine, with Permian seeing a slight drop, indicating stability in oil-heavy basins.
  3. Natural gas futures stayed above $2 with weather impacts and reduced demand, while the EIA reported a slight decrease in storage levels.

Ancova Energy Markets Update

Ancova • 19 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
💰 Finance Energy markets
  1. Crude oil price dropped below $80 due to various factors like government sales and potential rate hikes
  2. U.S. Oil & Gas rig count increased slightly, with Permian region leading the rise
  3. Natural gas prices softened with increased U.S. storage numbers and reduced European consumption