Invariant

Valuation. Business analysis. Investing. Finance meets curiosity, creativity, and skepticism.

The hottest Substack posts of Invariant

And their main takeaways

The ZYNpocalypse

687 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Regulation Public Health
  1. Nicotine pouches, like ZYN, have been targeted based on concerns of youth usage, but data shows low prevalence among underage users.
  2. Efforts and resources spent on regulating low-risk nicotine products could be better diverted to more pressing societal concerns.
  3. Regulation of novel nicotine products is lagging behind innovation, creating uncertainty in the industry and fostering misinformation.

Altria: The Great Race

648 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💼 Business Finance Regulation Investing Market Analysis Industry Trends
  1. Altria faces challenges in the e-vapor market and criticism for its product development efforts.
  2. The company is focusing on premiumization and maintaining profitability in its smokeable products segment.
  3. Altria's financial health, with strong leverage and cash flow, allows it to return capital to shareholders and navigate market challenges.

On Track

609 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Markets Value
  1. Analyzing investments should involve a holistic reflection and critical thinking.
  2. Consider the importance of probability and odds in decision-making.
  3. Recognize that in financial markets, competition influences opportunity and the importance of value over price.

Philip Morris International: More More More

511 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💼 Business Finance Marketing Strategy Investment Industry
  1. Philip Morris International is focusing more on next-gen products like IQOS and its heated tobacco units, with efforts to transition users from traditional cigarettes - showing promise for future growth.
  2. Despite some challenges like higher costs and FX pressures, PMI is maintaining its position in the market by introducing innovative products and investing in its portfolio.
  3. ZYN, another product spreading rapidly, faces questions about its popularity among underaged consumers, but it still shows strong growth due to being a preferred choice over competitors.

22nd Century Group: Answering the Wrong Question

609 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Regulation Companies Market Analysis
  1. 22nd Century Group focused on developing low-nicotine cigarettes but didn't consider if consumers wanted the product.
  2. The company struggled with profitability and faced challenges even after receiving authorization for their products.
  3. Shifting focus to a different product with conventional nicotine levels came too late for the company to recover.
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Logista: Old Roots, Green Sprouts

491 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💼 Business Finance Pharmaceuticals Distribution Mergers & Acquisitions Companies
  1. Quaking aspens have a unique way of growing, with all trees in a colony connected as part of the same single organism.
  2. Logista, a Spanish distribution company, is diversifying away from tobacco distribution and focusing more on next-generation nicotine products and pharmaceutical distribution.
  3. Logista is strategically growing through acquisitions, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, aiming for inorganic growth to expand its reach.