Invariant

Valuation. Business analysis. Investing. Finance meets curiosity, creativity, and skepticism.

The hottest Substack posts of Invariant

And their main takeaways
511 implied HN points 11 Feb 24
  1. Philip Morris International is focusing more on next-gen products like IQOS and its heated tobacco units, with efforts to transition users from traditional cigarettes - showing promise for future growth.
  2. Despite some challenges like higher costs and FX pressures, PMI is maintaining its position in the market by introducing innovative products and investing in its portfolio.
  3. ZYN, another product spreading rapidly, faces questions about its popularity among underaged consumers, but it still shows strong growth due to being a preferred choice over competitors.
648 implied HN points 04 Feb 24
  1. Altria faces challenges in the e-vapor market and criticism for its product development efforts.
  2. The company is focusing on premiumization and maintaining profitability in its smokeable products segment.
  3. Altria's financial health, with strong leverage and cash flow, allows it to return capital to shareholders and navigate market challenges.
687 implied HN points 28 Jan 24
  1. Nicotine pouches, like ZYN, have been targeted based on concerns of youth usage, but data shows low prevalence among underage users.
  2. Efforts and resources spent on regulating low-risk nicotine products could be better diverted to more pressing societal concerns.
  3. Regulation of novel nicotine products is lagging behind innovation, creating uncertainty in the industry and fostering misinformation.
609 implied HN points 21 Jan 24
  1. Analyzing investments should involve a holistic reflection and critical thinking.
  2. Consider the importance of probability and odds in decision-making.
  3. Recognize that in financial markets, competition influences opportunity and the importance of value over price.
609 implied HN points 14 Jan 24
  1. 22nd Century Group focused on developing low-nicotine cigarettes but didn't consider if consumers wanted the product.
  2. The company struggled with profitability and faced challenges even after receiving authorization for their products.
  3. Shifting focus to a different product with conventional nicotine levels came too late for the company to recover.
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491 implied HN points 07 Jan 24
  1. Quaking aspens have a unique way of growing, with all trees in a colony connected as part of the same single organism.
  2. Logista, a Spanish distribution company, is diversifying away from tobacco distribution and focusing more on next-generation nicotine products and pharmaceutical distribution.
  3. Logista is strategically growing through acquisitions, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, aiming for inorganic growth to expand its reach.