The hottest Economic Forecast Substack posts right now

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Top Links 588 The looming oil glut of 2025. The railroad on the wrong side of Trump's tariff plans. The Christmas tree disaster in N Carolina.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Tariffs Economic Forecast Energy Policy Global Trade
  1. There might be a big oversupply of oil by 2025. This is because OPEC+ is having trouble managing production limits.
  2. Some railroads are struggling due to tariffs from Trump. This could impact their business in the long run.
  3. North Carolina is facing a disaster with its Christmas tree production. This situation could affect both local farmers and holiday traditions.

Is Someone Attacking the Comex? January Sees $5.2B in Gold Deliveries

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Economic Forecast
  1. January saw a huge amount of gold delivered at $5.2B, which is unusual for a minor month like this.
  2. There's been a consistent trend of new contracts being opened and settled for delivery instead of the usual early demand drops.
  3. The Comex has restocked its gold inventory significantly, which raises questions about future deliveries and potential market impacts.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Forecast Currency Exchange
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.

Five Themes of 2023

The Last Bear Standing • 116 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecast Monetary Policy Tech Stocks Market volatility Banking Sector
  1. The recession that has been expected is delayed, and there are indications that the economy continues to grow.
  2. Inflation is decreasing, and the Federal Reserve aims to maintain this trend through its monetary policy.
  3. The technology sector has seen a resurgence in 2023, particularly in big tech companies and AI developments.

Investing Update: Lower Returns Ahead?

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Forecast Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 is hitting more record highs, showing strong momentum in the market. Many stocks are performing well, with the majority above their moving averages.
  2. Despite the positive market trends, expectations for future returns might be lower. It's important to note that past strong performances don't guarantee the same results in the future.
  3. The current earnings season could boost the market even more, but there are concerns about seasonal downturns that usually happen in October, which haven't materialized this year.
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