The hottest Global Trade Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Economic Collapse & the Post-American World

Glenn’s Substack • 2318 implied HN points • 02 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy International relations Debt crisis Military Strategy Global Trade
  1. The US faces a serious economic crisis due to high debt levels and declining fiscal responsibility. The country has been unable to effectively address these financial issues since the 2008 crisis.
  2. Efforts to boost US competitiveness, like subsidies and sanctions, often backfire and may harm the economy more. In contrast, countries like China are gaining strength by diversifying their economies and forming new partnerships.
  3. As the US struggles, other countries are building a new economic system that doesn't rely on America. This shift might create a world where multiple powers coexist, rather than one dominant force.

Top Links 649 Dollar overvaluation. Ethiopia's precarious economic reforms. Kashmir and panzootic threats.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Global Trade Market Trends Financial Policy
  1. The dollar is currently overvalued, which could have serious economic impacts. This means that the dollar's strength might not reflect the true value of the economy.
  2. Ethiopia is facing challenges with its economic reforms. These reforms are crucial for the country's future stability and growth.
  3. Kashmir is experiencing threats from panzootic diseases. This situation poses risks to both human health and local wildlife.

American Advantages in Economies of Scale

Erik Examines • 89 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Markets Consumer behavior Entrepreneurship Global Trade
  1. The size of America's consumer market helps businesses grow because they can reach a lot of people who can afford to buy their products. A bigger market means they can make more items faster, like how a big factory can produce more than a small workshop.
  2. Cultural similarities in America allow stores and brands to sell the same products across the country without changing much. This makes it easier for companies to run and for consumers to find what they want, no matter where they are.
  3. English, especially American English, is popular around the world. This helps American brands and culture spread more easily, making it a powerful tool for influence and business growth.

Top Links 638 The credit card racket. Why Trump wants Greenland. The cislunar economy & the age of the gas mask.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Credit Cards Economy Debt Interest Rates Global Trade
  1. Credit card interest rates in the US can be very high, over 22%, which can be a heavy burden for people carrying balances. It's important to be aware of these costs.
  2. There are discussions around various topics, like why Trump has an interest in Greenland, showing how geopolitics can be tied to business and resources.
  3. The emerging cislunar economy reflects the growing importance of space and its potential impact on our economy and society, underlining how innovation stretches beyond Earth.

✨⏩ What DeepSeek means for faster AI-driven economic growth

Faster, Please! • 1005 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Technology Investments Productivity Global Trade
  1. DeepSeek's AI models show that effective technology doesn't always need expensive equipment, which could change how companies develop AI.
  2. Goldman Sachs believes AI could significantly boost productivity and global GDP, similar to tech booms seen in the past.
  3. The rise of cheaper AI models could lead to faster adoption of technology in businesses, which may help improve overall efficiency and economic growth.
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Labor Laundering

Doomberg • 6490 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Supply Chain Global Trade Regulation Labor Rights Corporate ethics
  1. Many electronic devices use cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where child labor is often involved in mining. This makes it hard for companies to claim their supply chains are free from issues.
  2. China plays a major role in the solar panel supply chain, often using polysilicon that comes from regions known for forced labor. This creates challenges in ensuring products are ethically sourced.
  3. The EU has introduced a law aimed at holding companies accountable for labor and environmental standards, but this could lead to conflicts, such as threats from Qatar to stop gas exports if they face penalties.

Trade War? Tariffs? How A Trump Election Would Change Tech

Big Technology • 2752 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Elections Global Trade Economic Impact
  1. Global trade is super important for tech companies like Apple and those in semiconductors. If trade gets disrupted, it could lead to higher prices and inflation.
  2. Donald Trump's potential election could lead to drastic changes in global trade, including high tariffs on imports. This could reshape the landscape for many tech businesses.
  3. With Trump's focus on tariffs, global trade issues might become the main concern for the tech industry instead of social media or other topics that dominated past elections.

Top Links 597 Costless disinflation. The world's undersea cable system. South Sudan's calvary & Jarmush takes us on a permanent vacation.

Chartbook • 715 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Investment Global Trade Policy Analysis
  1. Costless disinflation is interesting because it suggests ways to reduce inflation without any financial costs. This idea could really impact how economies manage price stability.
  2. Undersea cables are crucial for global internet connections, showing just how interconnected we all are. These cables help transmit information across the world quickly.
  3. South Sudan's cavalry highlights unique aspects of its culture and history. It also points to how different lifestyles and traditions exist around the globe.

USDJPY: The Most Important Chart in the World

Kerman Kohli • 118 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Markets Debt Management Global Trade Interest Rates
  1. The Japanese Yen's value impacts global trade. When the Yen is weak, Japanese exports become cheaper for other countries, but imports get more expensive.
  2. Japan's massive debt isn't a problem as long as their interest rates stay low. This keeps borrowing cheap, allowing them to manage their debts without immediate consequences.
  3. The USD/JPY exchange rate is crucial for understanding the global economy. Changes in this rate can affect investments and interest rates in other countries, making it a key chart to watch.

Chartbook 338 You don’t exit the force field, you alter your position within it.

Chartbook • 700 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Nationalism Global Trade Political Response Market Reaction
  1. You can't just leave a difficult situation; you have to find a better way to deal with it. This means finding a new position or approach within the existing challenges.
  2. Different countries react differently to major events, like Brexit or Trump's policies, reflecting their unique economic power roles. For instance, when news breaks, some currencies soar while others crash based on local reactions.
  3. The way countries negotiate and manage their economic rules greatly impacts reform efforts. A left-leaning government in the U.S. or elsewhere would face specific challenges shaped by these dynamics.

Top Links 588 The looming oil glut of 2025. The railroad on the wrong side of Trump's tariff plans. The Christmas tree disaster in N Carolina.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Tariffs Economic Forecast Energy Policy Global Trade
  1. There might be a big oversupply of oil by 2025. This is because OPEC+ is having trouble managing production limits.
  2. Some railroads are struggling due to tariffs from Trump. This could impact their business in the long run.
  3. North Carolina is facing a disaster with its Christmas tree production. This situation could affect both local farmers and holiday traditions.

Top Links 575 Global chip chain. Sino-Saudi contacts. The Neolithic economic revolution. Data driven.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Global Trade Economic Systems Data Analysis
  1. The global chip supply chain is crucial for technology and industry. It's important for countries to manage and protect these resources.
  2. Sino-Saudi relations are growing, showing a shift in geopolitical alliances. Countries are forming partnerships based on mutual interests.
  3. The Neolithic economic revolution marked a significant change in human society. It reminds us how major shifts can change how we live and work.

Export Controls and HBM

ChinaTalk • 340 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Chips Export Controls Global Trade
  1. Export controls on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are making it harder for China to develop its AI technology. This could slow down China's progress in creating advanced AI chips.
  2. HBM is super important for AI because it helps process data faster and more efficiently. Most AI chips, like those from Nvidia, need HBM to work well.
  3. Chinese companies are currently behind in HBM production and advanced packaging technology. Without catching up in these areas, their AI chip industry might struggle in the future.

Top Links 568 Stock markets in the 2nd Trump Presidency. How emering markets emerged. Indian food inflation & the global wine glut.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Inflation Economics Global Trade
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.

Top Links 555 Main St v. Wall St inflation. Poland and France to block Mercosur. Nigeria's demography & de Gaulle's last picture.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Policy Demographics Global Trade
  1. There's a battle between regular people and Wall Street over inflation issues. It's important to understand how this affects everyday life.
  2. Poland and France are planning to block a trade deal with Mercosur. This could impact trade relations in Europe and South America.
  3. Nigeria's growing population is a key topic to watch. It highlights important demographic changes happening today.

Top Links 550 Buffett's cash pile. China's copper push. IKEA and GDR prison labor & the UK as "Butler to the World"

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Corporate Governance Global Trade
  1. Warren Buffett has a huge amount of cash saved up. This shows he is waiting for the right investment opportunities to come along.
  2. China is putting a lot of effort into boosting its copper industry. This could have big effects on global markets and trade.
  3. There are serious concerns about IKEA's involvement with past prison labor. This raises questions about ethical practices in big companies.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 05, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Analysis Investment strategy Global Trade Earnings Reports
  1. This week has important economic events like PMI reports and jobless claims that could affect the market.
  2. Major companies will be reporting their earnings, which could give insight into their financial health.
  3. There are both U.S. and global economic indicators to watch, including inflation rates and consumer confidence.

Deglobalisation: Diversification rather than decoupling

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💼 Business Global Trade Supply Chains Investing Economics Market Trends
  1. Businesses are diversifying their supply chains instead of completely decoupling from certain countries. This means they are sourcing from multiple countries to reduce reliance on any single one.
  2. The evidence shows that while some decoupling is evident (like with Russia and the UK), many ties with countries like China are actually increasing.
  3. Overall, it's more about managing risks in supply chains rather than a full reversal of globalization. Companies are investing in new areas like Southeast Asia instead of just relying on past hubs like China or Russia.

Chartbook: Whither China? Part II - Posen v. Pettis or "authoritarian impasse" v. "structural dead-end"

Chartbook • 1859 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics China Global Trade Economic Analysis
  1. Different interpretations exist regarding China's economic problems, with one side emphasizing authoritarian impasse and the other focusing on structural issues.
  2. The authoritarian impasse view highlights an inevitable downfall of authoritarian regimes, while the structural analysis points to socio-economic inequality as the root cause of China's economic challenges.
  3. The solutions proposed by each side differ, with one advocating for regime change and the other suggesting a shift towards a more inclusive growth model.

Who produces machine tools?

kamilkazani • 727 implied HN points • 09 Jun 23
💼 Business Manufacturing Technology Global Trade
  1. Machine tool production is concentrated in Western Europe and East Asia, led by Germany and Japan.
  2. The machine tool industry is knowledge-intensive and technology-driven, requiring skilled labor.
  3. Old industrial powers that adapt to new technology changes have a significant impact on machine tool production.

Cellular Walkie-Talkies.

News Items • 412 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Global Economy Economic Impact Global Trade
  1. War over Taiwan would have a significant cost in blood and treasure, surpassing previous global crises like the war in Ukraine and Covid pandemic.
  2. A conflict in Taiwan would devastate its economy by around 40%, impacting other major economies like China and the US.
  3. The global GDP would suffer a significant 10.2% decline, with countries like South Korea and Japan most affected.

How The First Reserve Currency Died

The Dollar Endgame • 379 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
💾 History Currency Global Trade
  1. Reserve currencies have played a vital role in upholding global dominance for empires throughout history by offering a widely accepted medium of exchange, fueling borrowing, spending, and state funding for wars of expansion.
  2. History does not follow a linear path but rather a cyclical pattern, with repeated 80-year cycles known as Fourth Turnings, marked by moments of crisis and upheaval that reshape societies and nations.
  3. The rise and fall of the Dutch Guilder, the first global reserve currency controlled by the Dutch through the powerful United Dutch East India Company, exemplify the dynamics of economic dominance and empire-building in the past.

De-dollarization is about more than currencies: As dollar system declines, what comes next?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 03 May 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Systems Monetary Systems Political Economy Global Trade Financialization
  1. De-dollarization is a shift away from the US dollar system towards a new economic system based on reducing imbalances and promoting balanced economic growth.
  2. The current crisis in the dollar system is exposing vulnerabilities, such as declining capital inflows and the need for central bank intervention to prop up asset markets.
  3. The future economic system may involve a mixed public-private economy, government intervention in strategic sectors, and capital controls to prevent financialization and promote productive expansion.

Chinese economy hinges on market reform & rule of law, NOT monetary or fiscal policy, says Zhang Weiying

Pekingnology • 109 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Policy Analysis Global Trade
  1. The success of the Chinese economy is rooted in market reforms and the rule of law, rather than just government spending or interest rates. This means that true economic growth comes from creating a system that supports freedom and innovation.
  2. Addressing first-order issues, like improving legal systems and personal freedoms, is crucial. These foundational changes spark real confidence among entrepreneurs, driving sustainable economic growth instead of just relying on short-term financial fixes.
  3. China's approach to opening up and internal liberalization must be seen as interconnected. For China to thrive globally, it needs to embrace both international cooperation and reform at home, trusting in the creativity and initiative of its people.

Japan Is Joining “De-Risk From China” Coalition

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Foreign Relations Economic Policies Global Trade International cooperation
  1. Japan is aligning with American and European entities in a 'De-Risking' strategy towards China, aiming to avoid extreme outcomes like 'decoupling'
  2. Although complete 'decoupling' with China is not desired due to global interdependence, there is a shift towards 'de-risking' by foreign companies and governments
  3. China's actions are alienating foreign companies and impacting productivity growth, urging a balance between economic independence and international engagement

How China’s Troubles Could Hurt Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Economic Impact Global Trade
  1. China's economic troubles could potentially send Japan into a mild recession by impacting its exports and GDP growth.
  2. The ongoing techno-war between China and the West is affecting economic growth for all nations, with Japan already experiencing a slowdown in foreign direct investment into China.
  3. Japanese companies are facing challenges like corporate espionage, reduced global sales, and the need to diversify their operations away from China due to economic and geopolitical tensions.

Beijing is reportedly softening tone on US ahead of Xi’s visit…But is it really?

Wenhao’s news blog • 58 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics US-China Relations Global Trade International cooperation
  1. China's state media is highlighting US-China cooperation but still blames the US for strained ties.
  2. Recent editorials from state media criticize the US for provoking China and having a misjudgment of the situation.
  3. There are calls for the US to follow the will of the people and remove obstacles to improve relations with China.

BRICS? Can't Beat Em? Join Em?

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 6 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Global Trade Colonialism Cold War Geopolitics
  1. BRICS is creating a new way for countries to trade using their own currencies, setting a different standard from the Western-dominated forex market. This means countries like Zimbabwe can now better showcase and sell their resources.
  2. Western nations are starting to realize they need to adapt to this new order or else risk continued isolation and loss. This shift suggests they might ease tensions and reconsider their sanctions against BRICS countries.
  3. The growing influence of BRICS could lead to stronger relationships with non-Western countries, potentially hurting US dominance. However, there are discussions about fairness and reparations for past colonial actions that might complicate future dealings.

To Be or Not To Be

Sector 6 | The Newsletter of AIM • 39 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Export Controls Market Strategy Global Trade Corporate Governance
  1. AMD is facing a tough decision between following US export rules and keeping its market in China. It's a tricky balance to maintain.
  2. The US has set strict rules that prevent companies like AMD from selling advanced chips to China. These rules are aimed at restricting high-performance technology exports.
  3. Nvidia has a chip that exceeds these performance limits, illustrating the competitive tech landscape and the challenges AMD is dealing with.

Can demographics undermine Europe’s dominance in global trade?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Global Trade Demographics Economics Labor Market Productivity
  1. Europe's working-age population is shrinking, which means there will be fewer workers available to drive economic growth. This change could lead to higher wages and inflation.
  2. As global trade patterns shift, countries with younger, growing populations, like India and Africa, are expected to gain a larger share of global trade. This could change the trading landscape significantly.
  3. By 2100, Africa and South Asia could become the main centers of global trade, while Europe's influence might drop to below 20%. This shows a major shift in where economic power will lie in the future.

The Gold Standard Is Back: BRICS To Intro Gold-Backed Reserve Currency

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 10 Jul 23
💰 Finance Currency De-dollarization Global Trade
  1. BRICS countries are planning to introduce a gold-backed reserve currency, challenging the US dollar's dominance.
  2. The move could lead to a devaluation of fiat currencies and pose a shock to the global fiat money system.
  3. This announcement is part of a larger plan to de-dollarize and shift away from the US dollar as the world's global reserve currency.

Russia's New Friends

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Russia China Turkey Sanctions Global Trade
  1. Russia is turning to new friends like China and Turkey due to being cut off from trade with the US, EU, Japan, and others.
  2. China is a key partner for Russia in trade, particularly in oil and natural gas, machinery, electronics, and vehicles.
  3. Turkey is also becoming a significant trade partner for Russia, showing a strong growth in exports and imports, especially in manufacturing and gold.