The hottest Stock Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The Bear Cave #258

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Financial reports Stock Analysis Corporate Governance
  1. Recent reports by researchers highlighted concerns about companies like AppLovin and Construction Partners, suggesting they are facing serious revenue and operational issues.
  2. There have been notable executive resignations at companies such as Blue Bird Corp and Lanzatech Global, indicating potential instability within those organizations.
  3. The SEC released FOIA logs suggesting certain companies are under investigation, as many investors see this as a red flag about their business practices.

Even More Problems at B. Riley (RILY)

The Bear Cave • 303 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Stock Analysis Investment strategy Regulatory issues
  1. B. Riley has serious issues linked to fraud allegations, which have harmed its reputation and led to a significant stock drop.
  2. The company's inability to file its financial reports has raised even more red flags about its stability.
  3. These troubles at B. Riley could also negatively impact CBIZ Inc, hinting at wider concerns in the market.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For 2025

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Consumer behavior
  1. The job market is doing well, with a low unemployment rate and strong job growth. This is helping boost the economy.
  2. Interest rates are rising, particularly for 10-year Treasuries, which can affect the stock market negatively. The S&P 500 has seen a drop recently due to these rate increases.
  3. Most stocks aren't doing too well right now, with only a small percentage in an uptrend. Small caps are struggling and have dropped over 10% recently.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Policy Interest Rates Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

Clouded Judgement 1.16.25 - December Inflation

Clouded Judgement • 3 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic data Investment Strategies Valuation Metrics Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market's current mood is cautious, as investors are eagerly waiting for important data about the economy. Strong data might mean higher interest rates could stay longer than expected.
  2. Recent inflation figures came in lower than expected, causing a positive reaction in the stock market, particularly with a significant rise in the Nasdaq index.
  3. SaaS companies are often valued based on their expected revenue growth. Despite some not being profitable now, their future growth potential can make them appealing to investors.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Investing Update: A Bull Market Scare?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic outlook Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The stock market can be very unpredictable, like a roller coaster with ups and downs. It's important to be ready for sudden changes in the market.
  2. Recently, there was a big drop in the S&P 500, which showed that many stocks were losing value. It's a reminder that market conditions can shift quickly.
  3. Despite the rough week, there were also signs of recovery, with some stocks doing better. This shows that after tough times, markets can bounce back.

Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.

Stock Buybacks Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 399 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Policy Stock Analysis
  1. Stock buybacks happen when a company uses its extra cash to buy back its own shares. This can make the remaining shares more valuable by increasing earnings per share.
  2. Buybacks can be good for investors, as they might boost stock prices without having to pay taxes on dividends right away. However, critics say companies should focus on growth and investment instead.
  3. There are downsides to buybacks too. Sometimes, management might use them to inflate their bonuses, or they might buy back shares at the wrong time, leading to poor long-term results.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market is doing really well recently, with all major indices up for the week. The S&P 500 is up 25.1% and the Nasdaq is leading with a 26.6% increase this year.
  2. Historically, there's a trend of market rallies during November and towards the end of the year. Many investors are looking forward to a possible Thanksgiving rally and the annual Santa Claus Rally ahead.
  3. Some data shows that less than half of the S&P 500 stocks are trending up, which could indicate some weakness. However, the current low percentage of large-cap stocks down 20% or more suggests investors are still optimistic.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Inflation Stock Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.

What I read in September 2023

Asian Century Stocks • 314 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Analysis Market Trends Investment Strategies
  1. The author read 14 write-ups in September from sources like Value Investors Club and Substack.
  2. They believe JD.com and China Tower may be undervalued, while Ossia International and Ming Fai may have potential upside.
  3. There are concerns about Midea's exposure to the Chinese property market, but the company's strong market position and growth indicate potential resilience.

Investing Update: Year-End Rally Underway?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic data Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market saw significant growth after the recent elections, with major indices like the Dow and S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. This growth was boosted by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.
  2. We are currently in a 'baby bull' market phase, and historically, November to January are the strongest months for stocks. This might indicate a potential year-end rally ahead.
  3. Political factors have less control over the stock market than many believe. Over the long run, markets tend to perform well regardless of which party is in power.

How much will the "magnificent seven" grow?

Jon’s Newsletter • 159 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
💼 Business Stock Analysis Market Trends Tech industry Investment
  1. Tesla is expected to see amazing growth, with revenue projected to double over the next five years as they aim for 5 million vehicle sales annually.
  2. Nvidia is riding the AI wave and is estimated to grow its revenue significantly, nearing $93 billion in five years.
  3. Amazon is set for a big boost too, with projections of reaching almost $1 trillion in revenue, making it the biggest revenue-generating business in America.

Investing Update: Q4 Top Ideas & Q3 Recap

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market has been doing really well, with the S&P 500 seeing a strong start this year. It's the best start since 1997, which is exciting for investors.
  2. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 had its best performance since 2020, and many stocks outperformed the index. This shows healthy growth and optimism in the market.
  3. Certain sectors like utilities are doing great, while energy stocks are lagging behind. It's important to pay attention to these trends when investing.

Investing Update: Lower Returns Ahead?

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Forecast Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 is hitting more record highs, showing strong momentum in the market. Many stocks are performing well, with the majority above their moving averages.
  2. Despite the positive market trends, expectations for future returns might be lower. It's important to note that past strong performances don't guarantee the same results in the future.
  3. The current earnings season could boost the market even more, but there are concerns about seasonal downturns that usually happen in October, which haven't materialized this year.

Following up on Groupon

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 11
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Financial Modeling
  1. In investing, it's important to stay humble and be ready to rethink your assumptions. The market might have a different, more optimistic view of a company's growth.
  2. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is not inherently biased against growth companies. It gives a true value based on projected cash flows, even if that feels conservative.
  3. Just because a stock has a high price doesn't mean it's worth that much. Many investors are focused on short-term gains and may buy stocks without understanding their true value.

Contrarian Value Investing - Going against the flow....

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 18 Jun 12
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Contrarian investing means buying stocks that other investors are selling off. This strategy bets that these stocks will bounce back after a market overreaction.
  2. It’s important to do your homework and consider why a stock price dropped. Some drops are temporary and can lead to big gains if the company is still strong.
  3. Watch out for risks and costs, especially with low-priced stocks. Timing your investments and understanding market reactions can make a big difference in returns.

The Twitter IPO: Thoughts on the IPO End Game

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Oct 13
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends IPOs Valuation Stock Analysis
  1. Twitter's IPO pricing was set lower than expected, which could lead to a quick spike in stock price after the offering. This happens often in IPOs and can create excitement in the market.
  2. The IPO process usually involves underpricing to ensure that shares sell well, which means existing owners may miss out on potential profits. But they often accept this for a better long-term exit.
  3. Investors have different strategies for dealing with IPOs, like trying to buy shares at the offering price or waiting for stock price movements. Each approach carries its own risk and reward.

Come easy, go easy: The Tech Takedown!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Apr 18
💼 Business Investing Market Trends Tech Companies Stock Analysis
  1. Tech companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google have seen huge success but are also facing serious challenges. Recent troubles highlight how quickly things can change in the market.
  2. These companies have grown rapidly by scaling their success and tapping into big data, allowing them to dominate their industries. Keeping users engaged has been key to their growth.
  3. Recent issues have sparked concerns about privacy and data use, which could lead to new regulations. Investors need to consider how these changes might impact the future of these companies.

A Viral Market Meltdown Part II: Clues in the Debris!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 20
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Impacts Investment Strategies Risk Assessment Stock Analysis
  1. The coronavirus has significantly impacted global markets, causing a loss of around $7.3 trillion globally in just three weeks. Investors are clearly reacting strongly to the uncertainty surrounding the virus.
  2. Different sectors are feeling the effects of the market downturn unevenly. Industries like energy and finance have suffered the most while health care and utilities have remained more stable.
  3. Market behaviors suggest a movement towards larger companies as safer investments, but some smaller stocks have seen slight gains. This goes against the usual trend of investors flocking to larger entities during crises.

Value Investing II: Tough times for Value Investing - Passing Phase or a Changed World?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Fund management Stock Analysis
  1. Value investing has struggled in the last decade, and even famous investors like Warren Buffett have faced challenges. This makes some question whether traditional value investing methods still work.
  2. Past success of value investing doesn’t mean it will always perform well. There were periods in history when growth stocks outperformed value stocks, highlighting the ups and downs.
  3. Many value investors believe the recent poor performance is just a temporary issue or blame the economy. However, there's a growing recognition that changes in the market might require new strategies.

Investing Update: Is Apple Losing Its Taste?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Market Performance Stock Analysis Investment strategy Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has been reaching new all-time highs with strong performance across various sectors and asset classes.
  2. Despite Apple's underperformance compared to the S&P 500 and other tech stocks, it may present a potential buying opportunity as past dips in Apple have been followed by strong recoveries.
  3. The current market trend is leaning towards risk-on behavior, with evidence in the rise of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and certain ETFs.

Stock Buybacks: What is happening and why?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Jan 11
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Corporate Finance Economic Policy Investing Stock Market Corporate Finance Economics Business Trends
  1. Stock buybacks are becoming more popular than dividends among US companies. This shift has been happening for decades, with companies preferring to buy back their shares instead of paying out dividends.
  2. Several reasons explain this trend. One reason is that managers often prefer buybacks because their performance is tied to stock prices, which can drop when dividends are paid.
  3. Buybacks are more flexible for companies because they don't create ongoing expectations like dividends do. Companies that face uncertain earnings may choose buybacks to avoid the commitment of paying dividends in the future.

Insider Trading: My Perspective..

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Oct 09
💰 Finance Investing Regulation Market Analysis Corporate Governance Economic Policy Insider trading Investment Strategies Stock Analysis
  1. Insider trading is when some investors trade using secret information not available to everyone. It's legal for company insiders to buy stock if they don’t do it right before big news, but illegal if they do.
  2. Studies show that insider trading doesn't always lead to big profits. Insiders might have better info, but they don't always make more money from it, and relying on tips can be risky.
  3. Instead of banning insider trading, we could make trading more transparent. This way, everyone can see what insiders are doing, which might level the playing field a bit.

What betas can... and cannot do...

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 09
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Market behavior Economic Factors Market risk Investing Corporate Finance Economic Indicators Stock Analysis
  1. Betas are measures of relative risk, showing how exposed a stock is to market changes. A stock with a beta of 1.2 is more sensitive to market risks than an average stock.
  2. Betas can't explain overall market changes because they average out to one. If one stock's beta rises, others will fall, so they don’t explain all market movements.
  3. Betas also don’t capture risks unique to specific firms, like legal issues for tobacco companies or approval processes for biotech firms.

Is it time to make the move?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 08
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Growth Stock Analysis Risk management
  1. The market drop was influenced more by worries about the economy rather than just fear, showing a different sense of urgency than previous weeks.
  2. The equity risk premium in US stocks is higher than usual, suggesting either a big change in the markets or that stocks are undervalued.
  3. When looking for investments, focus on stable companies with essential products, strong earnings, low debt, and reasonable prices.