The hottest Security Studies Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

SITREP 10/5/24: Post-Ugledar Landscape Unfurls into Dark Ukrainian Future

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge • 13848 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Ukrainian troops are facing major issues, like mutinies and lack of resources. Many soldiers are unwilling to fight due to insufficient training and equipment.
  2. The fall of Ugledar shows how serious the losses are for Ukraine. Brigades are being dramatically reduced in numbers, with some units losing nearly all their members.
  3. There's a growing sentiment among Ukrainian soldiers and officials that negotiations might be necessary to end the conflict. Many are feeling the emotional and physical toll of the ongoing war.

The Nord Stream Anniversary & Europe’s Stockholm Syndrome

Glenn’s Substack • 1798 implied HN points • 27 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The Nord Stream pipeline attack severed Europe's energy ties with Russia, leading to significant economic changes for both regions.
  2. Initially, the US and NATO blamed Russia for the attack, but later reports suggested that Ukraine might have been involved while evidence pointed to a possible US connection.
  3. As the narrative around the attack evolved, European nations began to turn against each other, showing tensions and doubts about their alliances.

Time for NATO to Retire?

Glenn’s Substack • 1199 implied HN points • 24 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. NATO is seen by some as outdated and stuck in Cold War thinking. It focuses on dividing the world into good and evil, which may not lead to real security.
  2. The expansion of NATO has created conflicts rather than resolving them. This approach often leads to more militarization and tensions with countries like Russia.
  3. There's a call for a new way of thinking about security that includes cooperation with former adversaries instead of forming exclusive military alliances.

The Militarisation of Scandinavia & the Great Northern War 2.0

Glenn’s Substack • 1838 implied HN points • 06 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Scandinavia is shifting from a peaceful region to a frontline for the US military, which might lead to more conflicts. Countries like Norway are hosting US military bases, causing Russia to feel threatened.
  2. The history shows that when one country's security increases, it often makes neighboring countries feel less secure, leading to a security competition. This was the case during the Cold War with Finland and Sweden acting as neutral states to reduce tensions.
  3. NATO's expansion, including Sweden and Finland joining, is seen by some as a major mistake. It might actually increase tensions rather than provide security, as past experiences suggest that surrounding a country with military alliances can provoke it.

Germany’s Neglect of National Interests

Glenn’s Substack • 939 implied HN points • 10 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Germany's current approach to foreign policy often neglects its own national interests, which could lead to negative consequences for the country.
  2. There is a historical pattern of Germany sacrificing its interests for external powers, similar to its past under France and now the US.
  3. A rise in nationalism may occur as a reaction to this neglect, with people seeking to reclaim control over their national identity and sovereignty.
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DWN Interview with Harald Kujat: Ukraine Support Without Peace Strategy

Glenn’s Substack • 659 implied HN points • 08 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can truly win the war. Both sides are unlikely to achieve their political goals, and ongoing support from the West may not change the military balance.
  2. Ukraine's recent offensive into Russian territory may turn out to be a risky move rather than a game-changer. The action could lead to greater military challenges as Ukraine stretches its resources thin.
  3. A peaceful resolution to the conflict seems increasingly distant. Both sides have strong preconditions for negotiations, and external factors like upcoming U.S. elections could impact the situation further.

Ed Luttwak on Military Revolutions

ChinaTalk • 800 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Technology can change warfare suddenly when a new capability breaks old assumptions, and opponents then adapt; you must study action–reaction dynamics and the different levels of war (tactical, operational, theater) because success at one level can be undone at another.
  2. Deterrence works in the mind of the adversary, so you must threaten what that adversary actually values and fears rather than attacking irrelevant proxies; cultural and political differences shape what will or won’t deter.
  3. Removing war from a region can sap its political and demographic dynamism and leave states less "capax belli," and rising powers that challenge the naval order protecting global commerce risk provoking balancing coalitions and strategic failure.

The American Empire is Losing Money in Europe. Will It Abandon Europe?

Glenn’s Substack • 859 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Europe is struggling because it is not adapting to the new multipolar world. Instead of building ties with other major economies, it is relying heavily on the U.S., which makes it weaker.
  2. Countries around the world are trying to diversify their economic connections to avoid too much dependence on a single superpower. Europe, on the other hand, is falling behind by sticking closely to U.S. interests.
  3. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Europe risks losing its political and economic relevance. If Europe doesn’t change its approach, it might find itself increasingly sidelined.

"Kursk changed the war"

Glenn’s Substack • 539 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The situation is tense between NATO and Russia, with both sides pretending not to be in a direct conflict. This makes it seem like a war is already taking place without formal recognition.
  2. Recent attacks on Russian territory and nuclear plants are pushing the situation closer to nuclear war. This escalation raises serious concerns about global safety.
  3. The American government's silence on these actions raises questions about their real intentions and strategy in the region. It makes people wonder how they plan to address these conflicts.

German Dysfunction

Diane Francis • 1079 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Germany, despite being the richest and largest economy in Europe, has been slow to take charge in defending against Russian aggression.
  2. Recent military budget cuts indicate a lack of commitment to support Ukraine effectively, raising concerns about Germany's leadership role in Europe.
  3. Historical factors like post-war guilt and strong business ties to Russia influence Germany's cautious stance towards military involvement.

Destroying Ukraine with Idealism

Glenn’s Substack • 1019 implied HN points • 02 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Ukraine's desire to join NATO is an idealistic view that ignores the reality of global power dynamics. Instead of thinking about what should be, it's important to consider how nations actually function and secure their interests.
  2. Pushing for NATO expansion in Ukraine can escalate conflict and create a cycle of tension. It suggests to Russia that NATO is a direct threat, leading to a need for military intervention.
  3. The argument that Ukraine has a right to join NATO oversimplifies a complex situation. Real peace might come from recognizing the security concerns of all parties rather than insisting on alliance expansion that could lead to further instability.

A Ukrainian Victory Strategy

Phillips’s Newsletter • 169 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Ukrainians are actively thinking through a strategic, nuanced plan for how to achieve victory.
  2. Some Western reporting, including recent Wall Street Journal pieces, misrepresents or misunderstands that strategy and promotes misleading narratives like claims about sending the youngest people to the front.
  3. There is a substantive Ukrainian strategic discussion underway that is more complex than many Western observers appreciate.

Who Is Detaching Whom?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The biggest mistake in US foreign policy is treating American military power as proof of overall competence or wisdom.
  2. Decades of US military dominance led allies, especially in Europe, to defer intellectually and stop thinking for themselves.
  3. Military strength gave the US undeserved credibility in non-military areas, producing bad judgments and a gap between perceived and actual competence.

Putin's Third Front

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 27 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Putin opened a new front in his conflicts by forming a security agreement with North Korea. This relationship is meant to counteract Western influence.
  2. The agreement between Russia and North Korea has worried several countries in the region, including China, Japan, and South Korea. South Korea's president criticized it as a dangerous move.
  3. The partnership raises tensions since both countries have histories of war, and it could lead to an arms race in the region.

China Waits

Diane Francis • 1638 implied HN points • 08 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. China is benefiting from Russia's war by getting cheap energy while avoiding direct involvement. It is using this situation to increase its influence while waiting for the right moment to act.
  2. If Russia's power weakens, China may try to take back areas like Manchuria, which holds many resources. This territory has been historically important to China.
  3. While Russia struggles in the war, China is carefully repositioning itself to strengthen its economy and global influence, especially as it faces challenges from the West.

A Farewell To Arms Supplies.

Trying to Understand the World • 8 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Strategy must start with a clear, unambiguous end-state you can measure, because without a defined goal you can't know what plans or resources are needed.
  2. Operational plans have to show how actions will actually produce political outcomes and must be grounded in a realistic understanding of the target society; wishful assumptions (like crude modernization theory or expecting “people like us” to take over) usually fail.
  3. War is fundamentally attritional and asymmetric: victory depends on preserving the specific capabilities tied to your objectives, and logistical, industrial and political limits can defeat even a technologically superior power.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: International Relations Has a "Mearsheimer" Problem

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
🌐 International Security Studies
  1. Some realist arguments (like Mearsheimer's) treat great-power aggression as inevitable. That way of thinking can shift blame away from leaders and make theoretical predictions sound like excuses for war crimes.
  2. Russia’s behavior is better explained by long-standing internal factors—autocracy, militarism, and leadership choices—rather than primarily by NATO expansion. Putin’s domestic politics push adventurism that is often counterproductive.
  3. In the modern world military conquest rarely produces durable control and tends to create lasting enemies. Lasting influence comes more from soft power and economic ties than from tanks and occupation.

The Big Picture

John’s Substack • 11 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The University of Chicago's Graham School has a strong extension program.
  2. On March 3, 2026 John J. Mearsheimer did a long interview with Jennifer Lind.
  3. They discussed major issues spanning the last 250 years of U.S. foreign policy.

Why The Constant Failure To Understand War? The US Made It Look Too Easy

Phillips’s Newsletter • 165 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Analysts in the US and much of the West keep misreading what actually matters in modern war, repeatedly getting big predictions—like breakthroughs or collapse from manpower shortages—wrong.
  2. That misunderstanding fuels simplistic policy advice (for example, calls to mass-draft) that ignores local debate and the changing balance between ranged and land warfare.
  3. Because the US made war look easy during its hegemonic era, strategic thinking weakened, breeding arrogance, bad decisions, and political shifts with real costs for allies.

Did NATO provoke Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Glenn’s Substack • 239 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. NATO may have played a role in provoking Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This idea is supported by some evidence in discussions.
  2. The argument about NATO's involvement gets complicated because it can be mistaken for supporting Russia's actions. It's important to separate facts from opinions.
  3. Understanding these events requires looking at the facts without bias. People often mix up facts with the narratives they want to believe.

On the Brink of WW3: The Dangerous Interregnum

Glenn’s Substack • 259 implied HN points • 01 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The world is experiencing a period of uncertainty between two types of power structures: unipolarity and multipolarity. This confusion can lead to increased competition among major nations.
  2. Such power struggles create risks that could escalate into serious conflicts, potentially even a nuclear war.
  3. Understanding these tensions is important for recognizing the dynamics of global relationships and the potential for future crises.

Between Western Hegemony & Eurasian Multipolarity

Glenn’s Substack • 179 implied HN points • 17 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. NATO and Russia have had tensions for 30 years, leading to a potential conflict. It's important to understand this history to see how we got here.
  2. There is a growing idea of a multipolar world, especially in Eurasia, that could lead to more stability. Different countries working together can balance power and prevent wars.
  3. Shifting from a Western-dominated world to a multipolar approach might help create a more peaceful global environment. Looking beyond just one powerful nation can support better international relations.

Russia's Sopranos

Diane Francis • 1478 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Russia is not just a country; it's an empire with lots of powerful groups fighting for control. This makes it feel more like a mafia organization than a united nation.
  2. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former friend of Putin, has become a powerful figure by criticizing the military and gaining public support. He raised concerns about how the war is being fought and how soldiers are treated.
  3. Putin's recent challenges show he's losing control. His inability to handle internal conflicts weakens his leadership and could lead to bigger changes in Russia's future.

Russia's World War III

Diane Francis • 1159 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. A recent meeting in Jeddah with global leaders, excluding Russia, highlighted the widespread recognition of Russia's aggressive role in the Ukraine war.
  2. Putin's actions have severe consequences beyond Ukraine, affecting global food and energy supply, and creating instability in other regions, especially Africa.
  3. The meeting served as a crucial step for countries to come together to stop Putin, showing that this war is not just a regional issue but a global problem that needs collaboration to solve.

Germany's World War III

Diane Francis • 659 implied HN points • 23 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Germany is hesitating to send military help to Ukraine, especially with tanks. Many believe this delay is tied to Germany's historical guilt from World War II.
  2. Germany's political decisions have made the situation worse, as they prioritize their own concerns over supporting Ukraine and the alliance against Russia.
  3. The need for Ukraine to regain its territory, especially Crimea, is urgent, and some leaders argue that supporting Ukraine more decisively can help democracy and stability in the region.

"There's no time like the present!"

Fisted by Foucault • 136 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Security Studies
  1. The US is still a dominant power in global politics, despite predictions of its decline. Many of its previous military efforts show that it has achieved important goals.
  2. Countries like Iran, which see themselves as revolutionary, often struggle to maintain that identity over time. They usually end up moderating their extreme positions as they focus on daily issues.
  3. Israel has acted rationally in its pursuit of security, backed by the strong support of the United States. This relationship allows Israel to operate without many checks on its behavior.

"It's Not Great Power Politics. It's Old-Style Imperialism"

John’s Substack • 11 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. U.S. actions toward countries like Venezuela and Iran look more like old-style imperialism than normal great-power politics.
  2. Toppling Venezuela is politically and logistically far easier for the U.S. than trying to overthrow Iran, which would be much harder to achieve.
  3. Having the military ability to seize territory doesn’t mean you can easily force regime change in a resilient, complex state, so policymakers should recognize those limits.

Russia: A Terrorist State

Diane Francis • 619 implied HN points • 29 Sep 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Russia is accused of being a terrorist state due to its actions in Ukraine and against European energy infrastructure. This has led to calls for it to be designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
  2. The sabotage of gas pipelines has heightened tensions in Europe, causing market disturbances and urgency in securing alternative energy supplies as winter approaches.
  3. There's growing concern about Russian citizens fleeing mobilization, as some may pose security risks in Europe, highlighting the need for vigilance among European nations.

Behavioural Geopolitics: Power makes militant

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Leaders and people in more powerful countries often feel more threatened by weaker rivals and become more hawkish, with a stronger willingness to support military or aggressive actions.
  2. Feeling powerful pushes decision-makers into fast, intuitive (System 1) thinking that amplifies emotions and leads to exaggerated threat perceptions and riskier choices.
  3. Less powerful countries tend to be more cautious and analytical because they face higher costs from escalation, so they assess threats more rationally and act more restrainedly.

Israel’s Nuclear Ambiguity

Comment is Freed • 74 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Israel has nuclear weapons but has kept it a secret. Unlike Iran, which signed a treaty about nuclear weapons, Israel never agreed to one.
  2. The reason Israel can have these weapons without much scrutiny is that it sticks to a policy of 'nuclear ambiguity'—it won’t confirm or deny its nuclear capabilities.
  3. Other countries avoid discussing Israel's nuclear power because they fear it would cause more tension and lead to other nations wanting their own nuclear weapons.

Israel attacks Iran

Comment is Freed • 97 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Israel has launched serious attacks on Iran's nuclear program, leaving Iran unsure of how to respond. This attack seems to be more than just a bluff.
  2. The outcome of the situation heavily depends on the US's reaction. Without US support, Israel may struggle to achieve its goals.
  3. Iran might hold back its retaliation to avoid escalating conflict and dragging the US into the situation, especially as its own position has weakened over the years.

Cripple Russia Now

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 21 Feb 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. To stop a threat like Russia, action is more effective than just threats. Doing nothing can encourage more aggression.
  2. It’s important to take decisive steps to protect oneself against danger. Just talking about it won't keep anyone safe.
  3. The situation with Russia requires strong and meaningful responses to prevent further attacks or issues. This includes showing that there will be consequences for aggressive behavior.

The West Wimps Out

Diane Francis • 699 implied HN points • 25 Feb 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Russia attacked Ukraine after a long period of threats. It shows that waiting for sanctions isn't enough to deter aggression.
  2. The friends of Ukraine did not step in to help when needed. This highlights the criticism of how the West responds to threats.
  3. Strong responses, like military support, are necessary to confront aggressors. Simply issuing threats won't protect allies effectively.

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Diane Francis • 679 implied HN points • 28 Feb 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Russia's military strategy is facing challenges in Ukraine, leading to a shake-up in its leadership.
  2. Putin has heightened the alert status of his nuclear forces as tensions rise.
  3. The U.S. government reassured that Russia is not under immediate threat while criticizing Putin's actions.

Sanction China's Silence

Diane Francis • 459 implied HN points • 07 Mar 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. China's silence during conflicts can raise concerns for global relationships. It shows how complex alliances and enmities really are in politics.
  2. Russia is a key resource supplier to China, but supporting Russia could alienate China's other important partners, especially in the West.
  3. It's important to recognize that wanting a stable relationship with Russia might not benefit China's global standing or its dealings with Western countries.

The Vatnik Tell

Phillips’s Newsletter • 128 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. The term 'non-aligned' is a key point in discussions about Ukraine's future and its relationships with NATO and Russia.
  2. For Ukraine to maintain this 'non-aligned' status, it can't join NATO or host foreign troops for security.
  3. The statements from different speakers show a consistent view that Ukraine must stay clear of foreign military influence to avoid escalating tensions.

NATO: Grow a Backbone

Diane Francis • 399 implied HN points • 24 Mar 22
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Putin's actions in Ukraine are seen as aggressive and unjustified. Many believe the world is not doing enough to stop him.
  2. NATO's principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all is not being upheld. There's concern that this could weaken the alliance.
  3. The situation in Ukraine shows that NATO members need to stand together and respond more effectively to aggression. It's important for their security and unity.

What Europe is Missing.

Phillips’s Newsletter • 115 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. European countries are starting to talk about their own military actions, especially regarding Ukraine. This shows a shift in how they view their defense responsibilities.
  2. There's a question about whether Europe can really defend itself without support from the USA. Many believe that it's not just about ability, but also mindset.
  3. The main issue isn't capability; it's whether European nations can picture themselves being independent in defense matters. It's more about perception than actual strength.

How Can Ukraine's Security Be Guaranteed?

Comment is Freed • 86 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Security Studies
  1. Security guarantees are important for protecting vulnerable nations like Ukraine from aggression. They help reassure those nations that allies will come to their aid if needed.
  2. Ukraine's past experiences, like the Budapest Memorandum, make them skeptical about security promises. When international support was needed, Ukraine found itself largely abandoned.
  3. To truly deter future aggression, Ukraine needs strong commitments from NATO or a substantial multinational force. This could help prevent another attack and show that the international community stands with Ukraine.