The hottest Voter Behavior Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Blame Cuomo

Gideon's Substack • 31 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Andrew Cuomo's campaign was disliked and didn't inspire voters, leading to his loss in the election.
  2. Cuomo's presence in the race helped Zohran Mamdani rise as a clear alternative, pushing other candidates to unite against him.
  3. If voters supported Cuomo out of fear, they learned that scared choices can lead to outcomes they wanted to avoid, like Mamdani's victory.

Polling is becoming more of an art than a science

Silver Bulletin • 214 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Polling accuracy is becoming less predictable and more nuanced. Pollsters are feeling cautiously optimistic this time, although mistakes still happened in predicting election outcomes.
  2. Pollsters are likely to stick with their current methods for 2026. Many have already adapted and believe the changes they've made are effective enough for now.
  3. There is no single best way to conduct polls anymore. Different methods and tech are used by different polling organizations, which can lead to varied results.

Why Did Trump Win?

Vinay Prasad's Observations and Thoughts • 272 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Trump won because different voters had different reasons for supporting him. Issues like immigration and inflation resonated with many.
  2. His clear stances on controversial topics, like abortion and transgender issues, attracted some voters who felt more represented by him.
  3. Trump's personality and media presence helped him gain a following, while perceptions about his opponent's weaknesses were also influential.

Educated rage

Wrong Side of History • 256 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Higher education has grown a lot since the post-war period, leading to more people getting college degrees. This change has shifted how people vote, especially since the 1970s.
  2. In the past, college graduates tended to support right-wing politics. However, as cultural issues gained importance, more educated people began to lean left.
  3. The rise of higher education is compared to major historical changes, like the end of the priesthood. It has intensified cultural conflicts and made views on both sides more extreme.

Why no one likes land taxes

Economic Forces • 20 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Voters often dislike property taxes because they feel like paying rent to the government on something they already own. Economists, however, believe property taxes are ideal since they are based on the fixed value of land.
  2. Inefficient taxes tend to keep taxpayers more vigilant and engaged in political matters. This means when taxes hurt more, people fight against them, which can keep government spending in check.
  3. Real-world tax systems often blend efficient and inefficient taxes. While economists may recommend more efficient taxes, voters may prefer a mix that protects them from overly aggressive government actions.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

A Postmortem On Postmortems

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 211 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. People often feel confused and frustrated about political events. It can be hard to understand how things happen and why they affect us deeply.
  2. There's a sense of humor that can help us cope with current political chaos. Laughing about tough situations can be a way to deal with stress.
  3. Despite political problems, life continues with many important aspects outside of politics. Family, friends, and personal experiences still matter a lot.

Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base

Silver Bulletin • 418 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democrats should focus on swing voters rather than relying solely on turnout from their base for the 2024 election.
  2. The composition of the electorate has shifted, with Democrats losing their edge on party identification in many polls.
  3. Biden's challenge lies in retaining support from swing voters who are not necessarily loyal to the Democratic base for the upcoming election.

Why has the right become more popular among low-income voters?

Optimally Irrational • 65 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Low-income voters are increasingly supporting right-wing parties because they feel left-wing parties have ignored their economic concerns. Issues like globalization and immigration are really important to them.
  2. There is a growing divide in the political landscape between educated urban voters and lower-income, less educated voters. Many low-income individuals feel their views are not respected anymore in left-wing political circles.
  3. This shift is not just due to cultural factors, but also because low-income workers see right-wing populists as offering more direct responses to their economic and social grievances.

Breaking the Democratic Double Standard

American Dreaming • 169 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The Democratic Party faces a tough challenge because they are seen as less trustworthy than Republicans. This double standard means that any mistake by Democrats is heavily criticized, while Republicans get a pass for bigger wrongdoings.
  2. Democrats have a harder time selling their ideas because they tend to be more complex and unfamiliar. This makes it difficult to convince voters, especially as people often prefer sticking with what they know.
  3. The structure of the Electoral College favors Republicans, allowing them to win without the popular vote, while Democrats struggle to do the opposite. This system is unlikely to change, which adds to the challenges for the Democratic Party.

Cage Match

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 146 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. There is a lot of focus on trivial topics in politics that distract from serious issues, like candidate qualifications and campaigns. These discussions can feel absurd and make it seem like we're living in a silly reality show.
  2. Debates about Trump often end with accusations of 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' to dismiss opposing views. This tactic is common and can hinder constructive conversation.
  3. People sometimes lose touch with objective reality in their political beliefs. Strong loyalty to a leader can make facts feel irrelevant, which complicates discussions and disagreements.

The GOP actually hates Republican voters

Sex and the State • 32 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The GOP is making cuts to summer and after-school programs that help boys, while giving tax breaks to the wealthy. This is hurting the very voters who support them.
  2. There’s a belief that schools are biased against boys, but that's not true; boys are actually struggling because of poverty and educational inequality.
  3. Many Republican voters may not realize that their party's actions often harm them. There's a disconnect between what they believe and what policies are actually being pursued.

"Shares My Values" is the Political Master Key

I Might Be Wrong • 10 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Voters mainly care about the economy, so candidates focusing on serious economic issues often win more support. Culture war topics, like transgender issues, might seem less important to most voters.
  2. Candidates who seem too focused on culture wars can appear frivolous and out of touch with voters' real concerns. This can damage their credibility and trustworthiness.
  3. It's crucial for candidates to show they share the values of the voters. If people believe a candidate aligns with their concerns and priorities, they're more likely to support them.

The Shape of Things To Come

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 100 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Voters feel that the Democratic Party no longer represents the working class, leading to a sense of distrust. Many are struggling economically and expect more from their leaders.
  2. Democratic leaders deny that they have abandoned workers and continue to focus on fundraising, which creates wealth for politicians and affects their ability to serve the public.
  3. Both political parties are stuck in a cycle of shifting populist candidates without making real changes to help people. This pattern could continue unless a new party emerges that truly addresses the needs of everyday citizens.

My Hot Election Take Is That We Probably Didn’t Learn Much

I Might Be Wrong • 10 implied HN points • 05 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Many people twist election results to fit their own ideas, making them seem more important than they really are. It's like saying every result proves your side is right, even if that’s not true.
  2. Commentators often make election nights sound more exciting than they are to grab attention. Instead of saying nothing much happened, they focus on the drama to keep viewers engaged.
  3. It seems like we didn’t learn anything new from the latest elections. The outcomes might not change much in the long run, so it can feel a bit boring.

The Human Nature Election

From the New World • 86 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democrats need to connect with human nature to appeal to voters. Being authentic and relatable is important for politicians.
  2. The rise of 'wokeness' has made noticing and discussing human nature difficult for the Democratic Party. This has hurt their connection with working-class voters.
  3. To attract a new generation of politicians, Democrats must redefine terms like racism and sexism to align with original meanings, thus moving away from current extreme definitions.

The Collapse of Institutions

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 24 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Political victories attract attention, while losses are often ignored. People rush to support winners, but losers can feel abandoned.
  2. Zohran Mamdani has become a major political figure, representing a new wave of leadership while overcoming traditional political institutions in New York City.
  3. Institutions must choose whether to adapt to new leaders like Mamdani or risk becoming unimportant. The future of politics is changing quickly.

It's Harris's Race to Lose...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 60 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. It's an election where many people want change, but some voters feel stuck with the same options. They might choose to stay home instead of voting for someone they don’t feel excited about.
  2. Harris is struggling to connect with working-class voters because her campaign messages don’t resonate. They want stronger, more direct approaches that tackle economic issues more aggressively.
  3. Many people feel that democracy itself is not functioning well, making them less responsive to warnings about threats to democracy. They see billionaires as a bigger problem than political party conflicts.

No One Knows What is Gonna Happen

Unpopular Front • 56 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Predicting the future, especially in politics, is really tough. Many so-called experts often get it wrong, and people remember their mistakes.
  2. Polls can be confusing and don't always give a clear picture. They sometimes just repeat the idea that things could go either way without saying much.
  3. Trump's popularity and campaign are complicated. While he has a loyal base, many people also dislike him, making the outcome uncertain.

No one can explain Trump's victory

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 52 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Many articles are trying to explain Trump's win by sharing personal opinions, which often don't reflect the views of most voters.
  2. The real reasons people voted for Trump are complex and not limited to policy disagreements with Democrats.
  3. It's important to recognize that many voters chose Trump knowing about his character flaws, indicating a desire for a different approach to politics.

How the value divide is challenging Britain's two-party system

Comment is Freed • 45 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The recent UK election showed a split in voter values, making it harder for traditional parties like Labour and Conservatives to win purely by appealing to the center.
  2. The two main parties received their lowest combined vote percentage ever, indicating a rise in other groups like Reform UK and the Greens.
  3. This shift suggests that British politics might be moving towards a more diverse system with multiple parties instead of just two big ones.

This Country Will Get The Leader It Deserves

OK Doomer • 47 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. People often don't believe bad things can happen to them, leading to a careless attitude towards safety and current events.
  2. Many will talk about their values but struggle to act on them when it really counts.
  3. There's a divide where some are engaged in important issues and others choose to ignore or avoid them.

The point of politics

Sex and the State • 29 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Winning elections is the most important goal for political parties. If they don't win, they can't implement their policies.
  2. When swing voters are misinformed on issues, sometimes it's better for politicians to change the conversation back to popular topics.
  3. Policies regarding gender and rights can sometimes hurt a party if voters aren't educated about them, so they should be careful in how they communicate these issues.

The *Actual* Day After

Gideon's Substack • 40 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Trump was seen as the likely Republican nominee early on, and once he was nominated, it seemed he would have a good chance of winning the presidency again. Many factors, including Biden's unpopularity, contributed to this belief.
  2. The recent election showed a strong shift to the right in voter preferences across many demographics, including young people and various minority groups. This indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of leadership and policies.
  3. Democrats need to acknowledge the reasons behind the election results and work on offering solutions and fresh ideas, rather than just trying to reverse the outcome. It's essential to fill the gaps in governance and connect with the voters' concerns.

Reading, Watching 11.10.24

Unpopular Front • 35 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The political landscape is always changing, so it's risky to assume one group's voting behavior will stay the same forever. People and their opinions can shift, and that affects elections.
  2. When analyzing election outcomes, it's important to consider both immediate events and deeper structural issues. Some mistakes can be avoided, but systemic problems might be more concerning.
  3. Voting patterns can sometimes seem contradictory, but many votes are actually protests against the current system. Various groups can support the same candidate for very different reasons, showing how complex voter motivations are.

Controversial opinion: Democrats can win men back

Sex and the State • 23 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democrats need to focus more on winning back male voters if they want to be successful. Many believe that focusing only on women has caused the party to lose touch with men.
  2. There is evidence that some men are feeling left behind and more reactionary. Democrats should engage these men and offer them better alternatives to the right's messaging.
  3. It’s important for the Democrats to change their approach and focus on broader issues that matter to men, rather than just cultural or gender debates. They need to present realistic solutions that appeal to all voters.

Some Democrats Think the Disease is the Cure

I Might Be Wrong • 14 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Working class voters are increasingly leaning towards the GOP. Democrats need to rethink how they connect with these voters since their current approach isn't working.
  2. There are two main ideas on why Democrats are losing touch: some say it's cultural, while others believe it's due to neglecting economic issues of the working class.
  3. Populist economic strategies, which try to appeal to working class concerns, haven't worked in recent elections. Just because these ideas are popular doesn’t mean they will lead to electoral success.

The “Floating Voters” Who Stayed Home

Japan Economy Watch • 39 implied HN points • 02 Nov 21
🌍 World Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been successful in maintaining power with smaller shares of the vote in elections, thanks to the phenomenon of 'floating voters.'
  2. Floating voters, who do not consistently support any specific party, have been on the rise in Japan since 1998, making up about 40% of the electorate.
  3. Active independents among floating voters are engaged in policy issues and desire change, turning out to vote in elections with potential for real change in the political landscape.

Playing the Blame Game to WIN

I Might Be Wrong • 10 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. It's easy to blame others for problems, especially after elections. People often focus on proving their own beliefs instead of looking for real solutions.
  2. Commentators should look at facts when analyzing election results. Making assumptions without evidence can lead to misguided conclusions.
  3. Trends show that the Democratic Party is changing, becoming more educated and white, while the GOP is becoming less so. Recognizing these shifts is important for understanding future elections.

The Missing Theory of This Election Is “People Don’t Know Shit”

I Might Be Wrong • 9 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Voters often say they care about the economy, but many seem confused about how it's really affecting them. Even when things are getting better for some, others feel left behind.
  2. Despite claims of economic struggles, data shows that poor and middle-class wages have risen. People might be reacting based on their personal feelings instead of the overall statistics.
  3. The election results might suggest that people are responding to their frustrations rather than the real economic facts. Misunderstandings about economic conditions could lead to poor political decisions.

Did Harris Lose Because She Ran to the Center, or Because She Didn't Run to the Center ENOUGH?

I Might Be Wrong • 6 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris's campaign strategy was debated, focusing on whether she moved too much to the center or not enough to the left. This is a key question for many Democrats about how to win elections.
  2. There were different opinions among Democrats on the best approach for future elections, whether to embrace common sense or push for more leftist policies.
  3. Harris had more success in the states where she actually campaigned, highlighting the importance of targeting battleground states in a campaign.

Why Everyone Should Vote For Kamala Harris

Gideon's Substack • 7 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Cross-pressured voters, like anti-abortion feminists and libertarians, might find reasons to support Kamala Harris despite their different views. They could benefit from her leadership over the potential policies of Donald Trump.
  2. People who care about strong unions and immigration restriction may also see Harris as a better option. She could work with a Republican Congress on trade and labor issues better than Trump.
  3. Voters focused on the Palestinian cause should consider how their vote influences U.S. foreign policy. Supporting Harris might contribute to a more humane international approach compared to Trump's aggressive stance.

The election may not mean what any of us think

Charles Eisenstein • 5 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Elections can have different meanings beyond just who wins or loses. It's important to think about the bigger picture and the impact on society.
  2. The way people view elections can be influenced by their personal beliefs and experiences. Everyone may interpret the results differently based on their perspectives.
  3. Election outcomes might not bring the expected change that people hope for. It's essential to manage expectations and consider other ways to create change.

Small Sample

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 10 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Statistics can be surprising and should be taken seriously. Just because something looks odd doesn't mean it's not true.
  2. Don't underestimate small sample results, like those from Dixville Notch. They can sometimes predict bigger trends.
  3. Expect the unexpected in voting results. Surprising candidates can perform better than anticipated.

GOP Primary Candidate Venn Diagram #7: Rick Santorum

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Rick Santorum is one of the candidates in the GOP primary race. He shares some similar views with other candidates, making him a notable figure in the election.
  2. The candidate diagrams highlight how different GOP candidates compare with one another. This helps people understand their positions better.
  3. Venn diagrams can be a fun and visual way to look at political contests. They show overlaps in beliefs and campaign styles among candidates.

GOP Primary Candidate Venn Diagram #4: Michele Bachmann

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Michele Bachmann is one of several candidates in the GOP primary race. Each candidate brings unique views and policies to the table.
  2. The use of Venn diagrams helps to visualize the overlaps and differences between these candidates. It makes comparing them easier.
  3. Understanding these candidates is important for voters, especially as they navigate their choices in the primary elections.

In Europe, Chaos Is the New Normal

Yascha Mounk • 0 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Populism is becoming a strong force in European politics. New far-right parties are gaining significant support and may soon dominate over traditional parties.
  2. The divide in politics is shifting from just left vs. right to also include outsiders versus the establishment. This makes it harder for clear majority governments to form.
  3. Emmanuel Macron's presidency is facing major challenges, with recent elections showing a decline in support. The political landscape in France may change dramatically in the coming years.

On political information

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. In any democracy, some voters know more about politics than others. These are known as sophisticated voters and normal voters.
  2. Getting political information has become much easier in recent years. With so many sources available, anyone can find news and analysis about politics.
  3. More people seem to be thinking about politics in strategic ways, like a campaign manager, rather than just reacting to what candidates say. This change might make politics feel more complex and less accessible for everyday voters.

Anecdotal Evidence

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 06 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. A political sermon in a church can really grab people's attention and spark conversation. The unusual nature of such a message can make it memorable for the congregation.
  2. Catholics might start to see themselves as politically united, especially if they feel the government is acting against their beliefs. This could change how they vote, which is important for political parties.
  3. If people feel like their religious values are under attack, it can create a strong negative sentiment towards the government. This could be a problem for politicians, especially during election season.

On anti-incumbency and partisan landslides

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 26 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. It's important to separate anti-incumbency from partisan landslides when looking at elections. Mixing them up can make it harder to understand voter behavior.
  2. Anti-incumbency can be seen in polling, but it doesn't always lead to big changes in election outcomes. Voters often just move against one party rather than against incumbents overall.
  3. True anti-incumbency has specific signs, like many incumbents losing while the total number of party seats stays the same. This shows voters are rejecting their own party's members.