Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

The Choice

88 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Government Healthcare Infrastructure Economy
  1. The government will need to spend over 45% of national income on public services, benefits, and debt repayments by the mid-2040s.
  2. There are limited options for the next government as previous strategies to avoid high costs are no longer viable.
  3. Despite potential economic growth, tough decisions and budget constraints lie ahead for the government.

The Forgotten Wars

87 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Africa Refugees International relations
  1. Wars in Africa, like the one in Tigray, are often overlooked by the international community despite their significant humanitarian impact and high death tolls.
  2. Ethiopia and Sudan have complex histories of conflicts, rooted in ethnic tensions and political power struggles, leading to ongoing wars and humanitarian crises.
  3. The lack of attention from global powers and media coverage contributes to the prolonged suffering in these war-torn regions, highlighting the need for more diplomatic efforts and accountability for war crimes.
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Violence in the Middle East

85 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East Conflict Leadership Military tactics International relations
  1. Violence in the Middle East continues to persist with targeted killings and tit-for-tat exchanges between various factions.
  2. Both Israel and the US believe in weakening their adversaries by targeting and eliminating their leaders, but this strategy may not result in long-term success as groups have sufficient support and structures to carry on.
  3. The situation in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Iran, involves complex dynamics with concerns about nuclear capabilities, succession planning, and the influence of proxies in ongoing conflicts.

The Top Ten Books on British Politics

82 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Biographies Policy Communications Political Humor
  1. The list provides a variety of book recommendations on British politics, including biographies, histories, and memoirs.
  2. The books cover a wide range of topics from British political figures to the impact of policies on the welfare state.
  3. The post also highlights the importance of personal reflections and honesty in political diaries and memoirs to gain insights into politicians and civil servants.

The Global South, BRICS, and the G20

82 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Global South BRICS Russia
  1. The 'Global South' is not a homogenous group and has its distinct dynamics and interests.
  2. BRICS countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa share economic significance and political viewpoints, such as advocating for multipolarity and de-dollarisation.
  3. Diplomatic peace initiatives by countries like Brazil, African nations, Saudi Arabia, and others demonstrate a shifting international landscape in response to the Russo-Ukraine War.

There are always choices

82 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💾 History Decision-making Leaders Historical Analysis
  1. History is shaped by the choices individuals make, especially during times of crisis
  2. While big impersonal forces like demography and geography matter, individuals in positions of power play a significant role in making crucial decisions
  3. It is important to understand the constraints and possibilities before individuals when analyzing historical events

The two state solution: an idea whose time has come?

79 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Peace process
  1. The two-state solution is gaining international support as the preferred resolution for the Israel-Palestine conflict, even if challenges remain in the path to achieving it.
  2. Historically, efforts towards a two-state solution have faced obstacles such as disagreements over Jerusalem control and refugee rights.
  3. The aftermath of recent conflicts in the region has highlighted the urgency for immediate actions to address relief, reconstruction, governance, and security in Gaza before moving towards long-term peace negotiations.

Putin and Beyond

78 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Election Power Dynamics Foreign Policy
  1. Putin's recent address showed his confidence and focus on growing Russia's power and influence in the world.
  2. Putin's long-standing goal has been to retain power and shape Russia's future, with plans extending up to 2030.
  3. Putin aimed to modernize Russia's economy and state power, steering away from the Soviet model.

Local Elections 2023: The Preview

78 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
  1. Local elections in England are important as they impact local services and provide insight into the national political landscape.
  2. The upcoming local elections will be the first time all voters need to present photo ID, which can disenfranchise some individuals.
  3. The elections in 2023 will have over 8,000 seats up for grabs across 230 councils, potentially indicating shifts in party dynamics.

How not to use polling

77 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. Interpreting single-issue polls can be misleading.
  2. Polling questions can be complex and easily influenced by wording.
  3. Following issue polling blindly may not reflect true public sentiment.

Oppenheimer: The Bomb, Morality and Strategy

75 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
  1. Robert Oppenheimer discussed the potential destructive power between two Great Powers.
  2. Historical accuracy in movies, like Oppenheimer, can be appreciated by those familiar with the subject.
  3. Acknowledging errors and omissions can enhance the overall understanding of historical events.

Populism vs Reality

74 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
  1. The Conservatives are deeply split between radical right and centre-right factions.
  2. Political parties in Europe face divisions into radical right and centre-right groups.
  3. Populist leaders may have different actions in government than their promised radical approaches.

The Election No One Wants to Talk About

74 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
  1. Theresa May's unexpected election outcome in 2017 taught the importance of being cautious with polling data.
  2. The UK MRP model was accurate in predicting the election results at a constituency level.
  3. Lessons from the 2017 election, such as the impact of campaigns, were ignored and led to strategic mistakes in subsequent elections.

What Works vs What Wins

73 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
  1. Centrism as a political label can be vague and encompass a wide range of beliefs and individuals.
  2. Defining 'the centre' politically is challenging due to varying interpretations based on factors like ideology and policies.
  3. Examining New Labour's centrism helps highlight the successes, failures, and ongoing implications for leaders like Keir Starmer.

Breaking Point

72 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
  1. The UK election seems predictable but the economy's uncertainty is a game changer.
  2. No one is addressing the long-term challenges in the country before the election.
  3. Post-election, there could be significant changes and internal party tensions for the Tories and Labour.

For King and Country

70 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
  1. A YouGov poll showed that a significant number of under-40s would refuse to serve in the army during a world war.
  2. There are concerns about the readiness and size of the British Army in the face of potential threats, especially from Russia.
  3. Debates around war and conscription, like the one in 1933, continue to be relevant in current discussions about national defense and military preparedness.

The Pivot

69 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
  1. Labour may pivot to a more radical agenda post-election
  2. The political dynamics would shift if Labour wins the election
  3. Labour could face challenges in implementing their ambitious plans

The Politics of Envy?

69 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
  1. Labour is considering putting VAT on private school fees as a way to raise funds, despite their overall cautious approach.
  2. Public opinion generally supports the idea of putting VAT on private school fees, even among Conservative voters.
  3. The proposal aims to raise money for the public sector without criticizing parents who choose private schools.

The impact of sanctions

68 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. The West has supported Ukraine against Russia through military aid and economic sanctions.
  2. Despite the economic sanctions, Russia's economy coped better than expected due to higher oil prices.
  3. Sanctions on Russia have had limited impact, with the economy showing resilience and finding ways to adapt and evade them.

Case Closed

67 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
  1. The involvement of Cabinet Secretary Simon Case is a common theme in various scandals, contributing to the current challenges faced by the government.
  2. Simon Case's management as Cabinet Secretary has been criticized for his lack of experience and failure to provide necessary advice to politicians, impacting the relationship between Ministers and officials.
  3. The Cabinet Secretary plays a crucial role in upholding the integrity of the government, and Simon Case's shortcomings have led to a collapse in the relationship between the civil service and its leadership, causing widespread demoralization.

The Narrow Path

67 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
  1. Government spending reviews involve setting total spending and negotiating department budgets.
  2. Ministers and departments often battle behind the scenes to secure funding for their priorities.
  3. Labor party faces challenges in managing post-election spending review due to economic conditions.

What I got wrong about tuition fees

66 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
  1. Rethinking views on tuition fees is important as unexpected consequences can arise over time.
  2. Changes in repayment systems can threaten funding for universities and have broader economic impacts.
  3. Reforms in tuition fees can trigger a shift in university culture and introduce fierce competition among institutions.

What if Trump Wins?

66 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Defense International relations Security
  1. There is a growing concern about the international situation, specifically due to challenges in Ukraine, militarization in Russia, and tensions with Iran and China.
  2. There is a debate about increasing defense spending in the UK to address urgent security needs, but economic conditions and political decisions are factors affecting this.
  3. Europe is considering how to cope with the potential return of Donald Trump to power after the next US presidential elections, with uncertainties around polls, legal cases, and candidate health.

Fairy Tales

64 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
  1. The Autumn Statement had implausible spending cuts and relied on illusions of growth.
  2. The relationship between OBR, Treasury, and political parties is tense due to hidden disagreements in financial details.
  3. Labour's options in government are impacted by the decisions made in the Autumn Statement.

Going Round in Circles

63 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
  1. Election campaigns focus on achievements and negatives to prevent losing what's been gained.
  2. Rishi Sunak's government lacks achievements, causing challenges in gaining voter support.
  3. Negative campaigning, especially around economic stability and trust, may dominate in the upcoming elections.

China and Russia: The Weight of History

63 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
  1. The Sino-Russian relationship has a complex history that may not be well understood by many policymakers.
  2. There was tension between Moscow and Beijing during the Cold War, but Nixon's diplomacy with China changed the dynamics of international relations.
  3. The US shift to recognizing Beijing over Taipei as the legitimate Chinese government has had lasting effects on Sino-US relations.

Why "Coalition of Chaos" won't work this time

62 implied HN points • 13 May 23
  1. The narrative shifted after local elections highlighting the concept of 'Coalition of Chaos' returning.
  2. Analysis shows Labour and Lib Dem efficiency could pose a threat to the Tories.
  3. Expect more focus on potential hung parliament scenarios and questioning of party deals leading up to election day.

Changing the Narrative: Disinformation campaigns and Social Media

60 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
  1. Disinformation campaigns on social media can influence public perception, but their impact may be limited and dependent on existing beliefs.
  2. Efforts to use social media to change established views in areas of public concern are rarely straightforward, and awareness of risks is important in mitigating their effects.
  3. The digital information environment is complex and can be confusing, with challenges such as conspiracy theories and fake news, but also brings benefits for news, entertainment, and social connections.

Terrorism as Strategy

56 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
  1. The term 'terrorist' can be subjective, leading to debates and challenges in labeling groups like Hamas.
  2. Understanding the motivations behind terrorist acts is crucial to address root causes and consider negotiation processes.
  3. Using the 'terrorist' label as a blanket term without understanding specific groups and their political agendas can lead to misconceptions and inappropriate denouncements.

The Rise of Reform

56 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conservatives Political Impact
  1. Labour's lead over the Conservatives has remained steady at 20 points, with both parties experiencing a slight decrease in support.
  2. The Reform party has experienced a rise in popularity, moving from an average of 6% to 10%, posing a potential challenge to the Conservatives.
  3. The upcoming by-election in Wellingborough may provide insight into the Reform party's impact on politics and its potential growth in the future.

Record Breakers

56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Conservatives
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.

The Role of Security Guarantees

55 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
  1. Western military alliances have expanded and deepened over the past decade, adapting to new threats and forms of aggression.
  2. The growth of Western alliances is mainly a response to radicalization of Russian and Chinese policies, promoting stability and deterrence.
  3. Security guarantees for Ukraine are complex, involving diplomatic language, different types of commitments, and the need for continuing support and resources.

What do Conservative voters really think about immigration?

54 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Immigration Public Opinion AI Research
  1. Concern about immigration among Conservative voters has fluctuated over the years, showing a recent increase largely attributed to attention from right-wing politicians and media.
  2. Labour voters are more likely to be directly affected by immigration due to demographics, contrary to expectations. This dynamic impacts how policymakers should approach the issue.
  3. Misunderstanding public opinion on immigration could lead to harmful policy decisions. Better insight is crucial to avoid unnecessary or damaging stances.

Where does all the money come from?

53 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
  1. Taxes have been increasing due to sluggish economic growth and higher costs of state programs.
  2. Borrowing money during COVID-19 has led to increased debt interest payments, requiring more taxation.
  3. Future governments may need to raise more revenue to support spending within fiscal rules.

Reflections on Kissinger's death and a visit to Vietnam

52 implied HN points • 06 Dec 23
  1. Henry Kissinger had a long and influential career in international diplomacy.
  2. Kissinger's legacy is debated due to his diplomatic achievements and controversial actions.
  3. Kissinger was known for his geopolitical theories and bureaucratic mastery.

An Interview with Mike Kofman

51 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
  1. Mike Kofman correctly warned of the Russian invasion but the actual invasion didn't unfold as expected.
  2. The Russian invasion plan was based on flawed assumptions which led to unexpected outcomes.
  3. Ukraine's preparations for defense against a full-scale invasion were last-minute and focused more on Donbas.