TP’s Substack

TP's Substack focuses on China's technological and industrial advancements, particularly in green energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and battery technology. It delves into China's competitive strategies against Western companies, energy transition efforts, and specific companies like BYD's role in these sectors. The content also explores global technology trends and geopolitical considerations.

Technology and Industry in China Green Energy and Sustainability Electric Vehicles and Batteries Company Strategies and Market Dynamics Global Technology Trends Geopolitical Considerations

The hottest Substack posts of TP’s Substack

And their main takeaways

Automation at BYD Factory

13 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Automation Robots Artificial Intelligence Manufacturing
  1. China has seen a significant increase in the use of industrial robots, with over half of the world's installations by 2022.
  2. BYD, a prominent Chinese company, has highly automated factories with impressive features like 97% automation and self-developed tire grabbing machines.
  3. Embracing Industry 4.0 and automation, BYD factories showcase advanced technologies like robots for assembly, painting, and welding, achieving high levels of efficiency and productivity.

Is Brazil the perfect market for BYD?

14 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💼 Business Automotive Renewable Energy Technology Manufacturing Market Analysis
  1. BYD is investing heavily in Brazil to expand its market presence due to factors like high local auto prices, lack of competition, and access to local resources like lithium and iron.
  2. Brazil offers ample opportunities for BYD in sectors beyond automotive, such as renewable energy, electric buses, and possibly semiconductor technology.
  3. BYD's focus on AI and advanced technologies like autonomous driving will be crucial for success in South America, where smart features are becoming increasingly attractive to customers.

China's Energy Transition Part 3

11 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🔬 Science Energy Renewables Technology Green Energy
  1. In China, green hydrogen projects, particularly in methanol and ammonia production, are on the rise due to abundant renewable resources and a growing petrochemical industry.
  2. Cost of green hydrogen production in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang provinces has decreased to below 25RMB/kg by 2023, with the expectation of further cost reduction with more efficient electrolysers.
  3. Green methanol and ammonia play a key role in energy storage for dealing with seasonal variations in supply and demand of renewable energy, offering sustainable alternatives for industries like shipping, aviation, and petrochemicals.

China's Energy Transition Part 2

10 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy transition Carbon Footprint
  1. China's power grid is rapidly transitioning to low carbon technologies, but other sectors beyond electricity, like transportation and industries, need to be decarbonized as well.
  2. China imports a significant amount of crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil products, spending over $300 billion per year on these fossil fuels, with most usage being outside of electricity generation.
  3. China's progress in electrifying passenger vehicles is notable, with a shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs) leading to a potential collapse in gasoline demand in the next 5 years, although commercial vehicle electrification lags behind.

What does XCMG's BYD battery tell us?

11 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
  1. XCMG partnered with BYD to electrify products with large battery packs for heavy machinery.
  2. BYD's Blade 2.0 cells have high energy density, allowing for fast charging and operation in extreme temperatures.
  3. The XCMG battery shows advancements in cell density and support for fast charging, hinting at future trends in electric vehicle technology.
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China's Energy Transition Part 1

8 HN points • 11 Feb 24
  1. China's CO2 emissions are projected to decline despite robust growth in electricity generation, attributed to aggressively adding renewable capacity in recent years.
  2. China's strategy of combining large renewable bases with backup thermal plants, ESS, and UHV cables is proving successful, leading to significant wind/solar power generation growth.
  3. Wind energy in China is thriving with decreasing costs, high employment, and vast untapped potential, while solar industry sees fierce competition and continuous innovation to support the transition to clean energy.

What to make of BYD's huge discounts

5 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Automotive Market Trends Competition EVs Industry Analysis
  1. BYD has drastically lowered prices on its 2024 models, resetting the market expectations for NEVs in China's EV market.
  2. BYD's vertical integration and control over the battery supply chain allow it to keep costs lower than competitors and maintain a strong market position.
  3. Lower costs of batteries and chips have enabled BYD to implement these price cuts and make NEVs more affordable compared to ICE vehicles in China.

Future of SiC industry in China

15 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
  1. Chinese companies have become competitive in various industries by finding local suppliers or making products themselves.
  2. China is rapidly expanding its SiC wafer capacity, likely making Chinese substrate dominant in the market by 2026.
  3. BYD, a major player in the SiC market, aims to produce everything in-house, challenging Western companies to adapt to the changing landscape.

BYD Models and Tech to look forward to in 2024

7 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
  1. BYD is focusing on developing new tech like DM-i 5.0 and E 3.0 in 2024.
  2. BYD will unveil new models like a Pickup Truck/UTE, FangChengBao 8, and a Han refresh this year.
  3. BYD is expanding its lineup with models like Yuan Up, new Denza Sedan, and Dynasty Series MPV to target different market segments.

ICE to EV implication to automotive supply chain

9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 23
  1. Transition from ICE to EV in automotive industry results in simplification and efficiency improvement through electrical technology.
  2. Dependency on chips, sensors, and batteries as cost drivers in EV/AV supply chain has led to a shift away from legacy auto/supply chain R&D.
  3. Chinese suppliers are actively working to de-risk from Western chipmakers, aiming to increase their market share in auto MCUs and other chip products by 2030.

BYD ADAS Program

9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
  1. BYD invests heavily in ADAS technology, partnering with various companies for chips, algos, and sensors.
  2. BYD is focused on vertical integration, planning to develop its own algorithms, chips, and sensors in-house.
  3. BYD aims to have the most cost-effective ADAS solution for all price ranges, becoming a major player in the smart car industry.

Mingyang and energy transition

7 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
  1. Mingyang is heavily involved in energy transition efforts, focusing on green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as solutions for addressing challenges in green energy generation and decarbonizing sectors.
  2. Mingyang is developing innovative strategies such as combining wind and solar energy generation in the same farms, operating fish farming in offshore wind farms, and exploring hydrogen production from sea water for a holistic energy transition approach.
  3. Mingyang's ambition extends beyond electrolysis to a full lineup of hydrogen-related products, including onshore and offshore wind/solar hydrogen generation, ammonia production, hydrogen refueling stations, and clean energy transportation solutions.

Sodium Ion Battery

9 implied HN points • 02 Dec 23
  1. There are 3 different Sodium Ion Battery chemistries: Layered Oxide, Prussian Blue, and Polyanionic.
  2. BYD works with both Layered Oxide and Polyanionic chemistry for Sodium Ion Batteries.
  3. Sodium Ion Battery is expected to achieve higher energy density and charge cycles by 2025, surpassing Lithium batteries.

People are wrong about Taiwan scenario

5 HN points • 12 Jan 24
  1. The China/Taiwan conflict is unlikely in the near future due to America's clear policy to defend Taiwan.
  2. China has been preparing for a potential conflict near its home base for 30 years, while America faces challenges with readiness due to overstretching.
  3. A first strike strategy by China, while effective, could lead to permanent separation with the US and its allies, possibly increasing the risk of a nuclear scenario.

AI approach differences between China and America

5 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
  1. China focuses on making consumer electronics and robotics products smarter with their AI approach.
  2. America focuses on improving soft tech products like search, e-commerce, social media, and apps using AI.
  3. Both China and America are investing significantly in Large Language Models (LLMs) but with different applications and areas of focus.

My estimation for 2024 BYD sales

2 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
  1. BYD has several advantages such as a full lineup of NEV products and strong brand recognition
  2. In the domestic PV market, BYD could sell around 3.3 million vehicles if NEV market share remains at 33%
  3. Export markets and commercial vehicles also present significant growth opportunities for BYD

Strategic nature of Ga and RF

3 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
  1. Gallium is crucial for various technologies like iPhones, radar systems, and LED/laser diode production.
  2. Gallium Nitride (GaN) is a more expensive but high-performance material used in defense industries for applications like AESA radar.
  3. China's advancements in GaN technology have significant implications for the global RF market, potentially affecting companies like Qorvo and Qualcomm.

Importance of Horizon/Journey success

2 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
  1. As AI/ADAS technology grows, the importance of AI inference chips like Huawei's Ascend is increasing.
  2. Horizon Robotics' Journey series chips are gaining popularity in the Chinese market for ADAS solutions.
  3. Success in developing advanced chips like the J6 by Horizon Robotics can lead to further growth and partnerships in the industry.

Coming soon

1 implied HN point • 25 Nov 23
  1. TP Huang has a Substack account.
  2. The Substack account will be launching soon.
  3. Visit tphuang.substack.com to subscribe and stay updated.