TP’s Substack

TP's Substack focuses on China's technological and industrial advancements, particularly in green energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and battery technology. It delves into China's competitive strategies against Western companies, energy transition efforts, and specific companies like BYD's role in these sectors. The content also explores global technology trends and geopolitical considerations.

Technology and Industry in China Green Energy and Sustainability Electric Vehicles and Batteries Company Strategies and Market Dynamics Global Technology Trends Geopolitical Considerations

The hottest Substack posts of TP’s Substack

And their main takeaways

More nuggets on BYD ADAS

6 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Automotive Artificial Intelligence Data science Hardware Software
  1. BYD chose a specific chip setup for its DiPilot-100 platform that supports advanced technology better than other options. They prioritized overall performance and future needs rather than just the highest computing power.
  2. The company collects a large amount of driving data daily, which helps constantly improve its ADAS technology. While it's still behind Tesla’s FSD, BYD's hardware is getting better and offers a good range for detection.
  3. BYD is focusing on reducing costs by developing its own chips and increasing production efficiency. This strategy will help them expand smart car technology to more vehicles and compete effectively in the market.

BYD bringing ADAS to everyone

17 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Automotive Software Innovation AI Consumer Tech
  1. BYD has introduced its DiPilot-100 ADAS package for various models without raising prices. This means even lower-cost cars now have advanced driving features.
  2. The launch of DiPilot-100 has disrupted the market, putting pressure on competitors who can't match BYD's pricing or technology. BYD's advantage comes from its large data set and supply of necessary components.
  3. Features like automatic emergency braking and advanced parking modes make BYD's cars safer and more appealing. The continuous updates from their data will likely improve these systems over time.

The massive DeepSeek affect

37 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Models Open Source Consumer Electronics Software Development Cloud Computing
  1. DeepSeek has gained huge popularity in China, surpassing major competitors and reaching 30 million daily active users. This shows that users really like its features.
  2. Chinese companies are rapidly integrating DeepSeek into their products, from smartphones to cars, suggesting that more devices will soon be using this powerful AI tool.
  3. The rise of DeepSeek is changing how people in China use AI and might even provide better search options compared to existing services like Baidu. It's a big deal for the tech industry there.

BYD has some interesting models in 2025

22 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Automotive Technology Market Trends Product Launches
  1. BYD is launching many exciting new models in 2025, including the powerful Han L and Tang L. These cars offer impressive performance and fast charging.
  2. There are significant improvements coming to existing models, like better interiors and advanced driver-assistance systems, enhancing the driving experience.
  3. Denza, a BYD brand, will release a new flagship SUV, the N9, along with other models to compete in the premium market. They are focusing heavily on technology and performance.

The secondary and tertiary effects of recent unveilings

57 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Military Affairs Defense technology Geopolitics International relations
  1. China is developing advanced aircraft like the J-36, which is expected to have significant capabilities, including powerful radar and electronic warfare systems. This could change the balance of air power in the region.
  2. The J-36's range allows it to extend China's air dominance much further away from its borders, making it vital for potential military operations in areas like Guam and the South China Sea.
  3. This military advancement may pressure the U.S. to upgrade its own aircraft programs, potentially delaying their timelines and affecting their ability to defend allies in East Asia.
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Increasing NEV penetration in commercial vehicles

21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles Battery technology Sustainability Innovation
  1. Electric vehicles are becoming more popular in heavy-duty trucks, jumping from 7% to 21% market share in just a few months. This growth shows a big shift towards greener options in the trucking industry.
  2. Companies like XCMG and Sany are leading the way in electric trucks, mainly because they save a lot on operating costs. Switching to electric can cut costs significantly compared to traditional diesel vehicles.
  3. New battery technologies, like fast charging and battery swapping, make it easier for heavy-duty electric vehicles to operate efficiently. This means they can work in tough environments without long downtimes.

What to make of China's 6th gen?

53 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Aerospace Defense Engineering Innovation Research
  1. China's 6th generation fighter jets may be larger and more powerful than previous models, possibly able to carry more fuel and advanced electronics.
  2. The future of air warfare might rely on a mix of manned aircraft and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), potentially changing the typical roles and payloads expected of fighter jets.
  3. The anticipated design and capabilities of these new jets suggest they will need significant power for advanced technologies, allowing them to perform a variety of missions effectively.

More thoughts on 6th generation projects

43 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Aerospace Military Innovation Engineering Defense
  1. The J-36 aircraft is designed to handle very high power demands for its various technologies, like radar and electronic warfare. This means it needs advanced electrical systems to support all its capabilities.
  2. The J-36 is a multi-role aircraft that acts as a central hub, coordinating various other unmanned vehicles and aircraft during missions. This makes it a crucial part of modern combat strategies.
  3. With its potential long range and high speed, the J-36 can launch attacks from great distances while remaining hard to detect. It's designed to be a tough target for enemies, making it a valuable asset in air operations.

From J-10 to J-XD - History

27 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Aerospace Military Engineering Innovation History
  1. China's fighter jet development has evolved significantly from earlier models, with newer jets like the J-10 and J-20 showing vast improvements in technology and performance.
  2. The transition from 4th to 5th generation fighter jets has been important for the PLAAF, highlighting advancements in stealth, electronics, and weaponry.
  3. Looking ahead, the next generation of fighters, like the J-XD, will likely rely on AI and integrate with drones for enhanced combat capabilities.

More impressive BEV tech to come from BYD in 2025

31 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles Battery technology Manufacturing Sustainability
  1. BYD is launching new electric vehicle technology in 2025, focusing on better battery efficiency and faster charging. This means you could charge your car much quicker than before.
  2. Their new SiC power modules will make vehicles lighter and more compact, leading to improved performance and energy efficiency. It will help in making electric cars cheaper and more powerful.
  3. BYD is also planning to expand its charging network to support high-voltage charging stations. This is crucial for supporting their upcoming models that require faster charging.

BYD approach toward Global South market

22 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💼 Business Automotive Market Trends International Trade Consumer behavior Product Development
  1. Cars in Global South countries tend to be smaller and more fuel-efficient compared to those in the United States. This is important for companies like BYD to consider when entering these markets.
  2. BYD's current models may be too large for many consumers in the Global South, where smaller vehicles are preferred. They need to develop smaller cars and hybrids to better fit local preferences.
  3. The charging infrastructure in these regions is lagging behind, meaning that practical and affordable vehicles are crucial. BYD should focus on making adaptations for local markets to increase sales.

Just how much battery is needed by China alone?

19 implied HN points • 25 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Energy Automotive Sustainability Manufacturing Electronics
  1. China needs a huge amount of batteries for electric cars, with estimates suggesting around 1.3 terawatt-hours just for passenger vehicles. This shows a big shift towards electric cars in the country.
  2. The demand for batteries isn't just from cars; commercial vehicles also need a lot, with predictions of roughly 1 terawatt-hour for all types of trucks and other commercial vehicles. This means a lot of growth in the electric vehicle sector.
  3. To support a greener energy grid, China might need around 10 terawatt-hours of battery storage for renewable energy. This highlights that as they move to renewable energy, battery production has to increase significantly to meet these needs.

BYD operates on a different pace than everyone else

27 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💼 Business Automotive Technology Innovation Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. BYD is launching many new models quickly, with around 8 new ones expected soon. This shows they are operating at a fast pace compared to other car makers.
  2. They are introducing exciting features like Lidar and powerful motors on their vehicles, which will improve performance and technology. This means buyers will have more options for advanced features.
  3. Legacy car manufacturers need to speed up their development processes to keep up with BYD and other Chinese companies. If they don't adapt quickly, they risk being left behind in the evolving auto industry.

How China solves the renewable intermittency issue

35 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Renewable Energy Energy Storage Nuclear power Sustainability
  1. China is investing heavily in renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which have been growing rapidly. These types of energy are faster and cheaper to set up compared to nuclear power.
  2. To tackle the issue of renewable energy not being available at all times, China is using advanced battery storage systems and smart grids. These technologies help store energy when production is high and release it when demand peaks.
  3. Electric vehicles (EVs) in cities like Shenzhen are being used to help manage energy supply. During busy times, these EVs can return power to the grid, making the entire energy system more resilient.

Hybrid Technology is better than ICE

26 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles Aerospace Defense technology Energy Efficiency
  1. Hybrid technology, like plug-in hybrids, is better for many situations than traditional gasoline engines because they can be more efficient and provide longer ranges.
  2. Electrical systems in hybrid vehicles are more compact and can react faster, making them easier to integrate with advanced technology.
  3. There is growing interest in hybrid technology for various applications, including air travel and military vehicles, as they are seen as more efficient compared to fully battery electric options.

Battery chemistry is key to EV performance

25 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles Battery technology Energy Systems
  1. Battery chemistry is really important for how well electric vehicles (EVs) perform. The kind of battery used affects how quickly and efficiently the car can use its power.
  2. High-performance EVs need batteries that can discharge power very quickly, often at high rates. This allows them to reach top speeds and perform well on race tracks.
  3. Some battery types, like LMFP, are better for maintaining power and temperature, which makes them more suitable for high-performance vehicles. They can charge and discharge efficiently without overheating.

How will Li Auto do going forward?

15 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💼 Business Automotive Market Analysis Sales trends Product Development Competition
  1. Li Auto has a strong sales and product design team, but it faces tough competition from other automakers. Its sales have dropped recently, showing it might struggle to keep growing.
  2. Other companies, like BYD and Huawei, are releasing new models that might outperform Li Auto's offerings. This increased competition can make it harder for Li Auto to attract customers.
  3. Li Auto may have trouble keeping its costs down because it's unlikely to access the same high-performing batteries that competitors use. This could make it difficult for them to price their vehicles competitively.

Electrification of Heavy Duty Truck

21 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Electric Vehicles Transportation Battery technology Charging Infrastructure Environmental Impact
  1. Electrifying heavy-duty trucks is important for reducing transportation emissions. The heavy trucking sector needs focus to make a real impact on climate change.
  2. China sells about 1 million heavy-duty trucks annually, needing a lot of battery power to support this demand. Costs remain high, making it hard for businesses to switch from diesel.
  3. New electric truck options are emerging and gaining popularity in the market. With better battery technology and charging infrastructure, more companies might start using electric trucks in the next few years.

Is Brazil the perfect market for BYD?

14 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💼 Business Automotive Renewable Energy Technology Manufacturing Market Analysis
  1. BYD is investing heavily in Brazil to expand its market presence due to factors like high local auto prices, lack of competition, and access to local resources like lithium and iron.
  2. Brazil offers ample opportunities for BYD in sectors beyond automotive, such as renewable energy, electric buses, and possibly semiconductor technology.
  3. BYD's focus on AI and advanced technologies like autonomous driving will be crucial for success in South America, where smart features are becoming increasingly attractive to customers.

Automation at BYD Factory

13 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Automation Robots Artificial Intelligence Manufacturing
  1. China has seen a significant increase in the use of industrial robots, with over half of the world's installations by 2022.
  2. BYD, a prominent Chinese company, has highly automated factories with impressive features like 97% automation and self-developed tire grabbing machines.
  3. Embracing Industry 4.0 and automation, BYD factories showcase advanced technologies like robots for assembly, painting, and welding, achieving high levels of efficiency and productivity.

China's Energy Transition Part 3

11 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🔬 Science Energy Renewables Technology Green Energy
  1. In China, green hydrogen projects, particularly in methanol and ammonia production, are on the rise due to abundant renewable resources and a growing petrochemical industry.
  2. Cost of green hydrogen production in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang provinces has decreased to below 25RMB/kg by 2023, with the expectation of further cost reduction with more efficient electrolysers.
  3. Green methanol and ammonia play a key role in energy storage for dealing with seasonal variations in supply and demand of renewable energy, offering sustainable alternatives for industries like shipping, aviation, and petrochemicals.

Future of SiC industry in China

15 implied HN points • 25 Nov 23
  1. Chinese companies have become competitive in various industries by finding local suppliers or making products themselves.
  2. China is rapidly expanding its SiC wafer capacity, likely making Chinese substrate dominant in the market by 2026.
  3. BYD, a major player in the SiC market, aims to produce everything in-house, challenging Western companies to adapt to the changing landscape.

What does XCMG's BYD battery tell us?

11 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
  1. XCMG partnered with BYD to electrify products with large battery packs for heavy machinery.
  2. BYD's Blade 2.0 cells have high energy density, allowing for fast charging and operation in extreme temperatures.
  3. The XCMG battery shows advancements in cell density and support for fast charging, hinting at future trends in electric vehicle technology.

China's Energy Transition Part 2

10 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Energy transition Carbon Footprint
  1. China's power grid is rapidly transitioning to low carbon technologies, but other sectors beyond electricity, like transportation and industries, need to be decarbonized as well.
  2. China imports a significant amount of crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil products, spending over $300 billion per year on these fossil fuels, with most usage being outside of electricity generation.
  3. China's progress in electrifying passenger vehicles is notable, with a shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs) leading to a potential collapse in gasoline demand in the next 5 years, although commercial vehicle electrification lags behind.

China's Energy Transition Part 1

8 HN points • 11 Feb 24
  1. China's CO2 emissions are projected to decline despite robust growth in electricity generation, attributed to aggressively adding renewable capacity in recent years.
  2. China's strategy of combining large renewable bases with backup thermal plants, ESS, and UHV cables is proving successful, leading to significant wind/solar power generation growth.
  3. Wind energy in China is thriving with decreasing costs, high employment, and vast untapped potential, while solar industry sees fierce competition and continuous innovation to support the transition to clean energy.

ICE to EV implication to automotive supply chain

9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 23
  1. Transition from ICE to EV in automotive industry results in simplification and efficiency improvement through electrical technology.
  2. Dependency on chips, sensors, and batteries as cost drivers in EV/AV supply chain has led to a shift away from legacy auto/supply chain R&D.
  3. Chinese suppliers are actively working to de-risk from Western chipmakers, aiming to increase their market share in auto MCUs and other chip products by 2030.

BYD ADAS Program

9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
  1. BYD invests heavily in ADAS technology, partnering with various companies for chips, algos, and sensors.
  2. BYD is focused on vertical integration, planning to develop its own algorithms, chips, and sensors in-house.
  3. BYD aims to have the most cost-effective ADAS solution for all price ranges, becoming a major player in the smart car industry.

Sodium Ion Battery

9 implied HN points • 02 Dec 23
  1. There are 3 different Sodium Ion Battery chemistries: Layered Oxide, Prussian Blue, and Polyanionic.
  2. BYD works with both Layered Oxide and Polyanionic chemistry for Sodium Ion Batteries.
  3. Sodium Ion Battery is expected to achieve higher energy density and charge cycles by 2025, surpassing Lithium batteries.

BYD Models and Tech to look forward to in 2024

7 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
  1. BYD is focusing on developing new tech like DM-i 5.0 and E 3.0 in 2024.
  2. BYD will unveil new models like a Pickup Truck/UTE, FangChengBao 8, and a Han refresh this year.
  3. BYD is expanding its lineup with models like Yuan Up, new Denza Sedan, and Dynasty Series MPV to target different market segments.

Mingyang and energy transition

7 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
  1. Mingyang is heavily involved in energy transition efforts, focusing on green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as solutions for addressing challenges in green energy generation and decarbonizing sectors.
  2. Mingyang is developing innovative strategies such as combining wind and solar energy generation in the same farms, operating fish farming in offshore wind farms, and exploring hydrogen production from sea water for a holistic energy transition approach.
  3. Mingyang's ambition extends beyond electrolysis to a full lineup of hydrogen-related products, including onshore and offshore wind/solar hydrogen generation, ammonia production, hydrogen refueling stations, and clean energy transportation solutions.

What to make of BYD's huge discounts

5 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Automotive Market Trends Competition EVs Industry Analysis
  1. BYD has drastically lowered prices on its 2024 models, resetting the market expectations for NEVs in China's EV market.
  2. BYD's vertical integration and control over the battery supply chain allow it to keep costs lower than competitors and maintain a strong market position.
  3. Lower costs of batteries and chips have enabled BYD to implement these price cuts and make NEVs more affordable compared to ICE vehicles in China.

People are wrong about Taiwan scenario

5 HN points • 12 Jan 24
  1. The China/Taiwan conflict is unlikely in the near future due to America's clear policy to defend Taiwan.
  2. China has been preparing for a potential conflict near its home base for 30 years, while America faces challenges with readiness due to overstretching.
  3. A first strike strategy by China, while effective, could lead to permanent separation with the US and its allies, possibly increasing the risk of a nuclear scenario.

AI approach differences between China and America

5 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
  1. China focuses on making consumer electronics and robotics products smarter with their AI approach.
  2. America focuses on improving soft tech products like search, e-commerce, social media, and apps using AI.
  3. Both China and America are investing significantly in Large Language Models (LLMs) but with different applications and areas of focus.

Strategic nature of Ga and RF

3 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
  1. Gallium is crucial for various technologies like iPhones, radar systems, and LED/laser diode production.
  2. Gallium Nitride (GaN) is a more expensive but high-performance material used in defense industries for applications like AESA radar.
  3. China's advancements in GaN technology have significant implications for the global RF market, potentially affecting companies like Qorvo and Qualcomm.

My estimation for 2024 BYD sales

2 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
  1. BYD has several advantages such as a full lineup of NEV products and strong brand recognition
  2. In the domestic PV market, BYD could sell around 3.3 million vehicles if NEV market share remains at 33%
  3. Export markets and commercial vehicles also present significant growth opportunities for BYD

Importance of Horizon/Journey success

2 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
  1. As AI/ADAS technology grows, the importance of AI inference chips like Huawei's Ascend is increasing.
  2. Horizon Robotics' Journey series chips are gaining popularity in the Chinese market for ADAS solutions.
  3. Success in developing advanced chips like the J6 by Horizon Robotics can lead to further growth and partnerships in the industry.

Coming soon

1 implied HN point • 25 Nov 23
  1. TP Huang has a Substack account.
  2. The Substack account will be launching soon.
  3. Visit tphuang.substack.com to subscribe and stay updated.