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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales trends Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

How will Li Auto do going forward?

TP’s Substack • 15 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💼 Business Automotive Market Analysis Sales trends Product Development Competition
  1. Li Auto has a strong sales and product design team, but it faces tough competition from other automakers. Its sales have dropped recently, showing it might struggle to keep growing.
  2. Other companies, like BYD and Huawei, are releasing new models that might outperform Li Auto's offerings. This increased competition can make it harder for Li Auto to attract customers.
  3. Li Auto may have trouble keeping its costs down because it's unlikely to access the same high-performing batteries that competitors use. This could make it difficult for them to price their vehicles competitively.
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