The hottest Sales trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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A few comments on the Weak Start for 2026 Existing Home Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 282 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Sales trends
  1. The existing-home market is off to a weak start in 2026, with year-to-date sales down and pending home sales showing a small year-over-year decline, so there’s no clear pickup yet.
  2. The MBA purchase index has climbed from its lows but is still about 29% below the 2017–2019 average, which matches sales being roughly 25% below that period and implies continued weak activity.
  3. The purchase index can be misleading because shifts in which lenders are counted or fewer cash buyers can raise the index without more actual sales, so it should be interpreted with caution.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. February existing-home sales look to be down slightly year-over-year based on early market data.
  2. Active inventory is higher than a year ago—Altos shows about a 6.9% rise for single-family homes and reporting markets show roughly a 10% increase—but levels are still low within the year and a seasonal pickup is expected.
  3. New listings have ticked up modestly (around 1.8% YoY) while closed sales in early-reporting markets fell about 1.1% YoY, and sales remain well below February 2019 levels.

Video Game Thoughts Bonus Bag #6

The Bottom Feeder • 630 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Sales trends
  1. Steam has big sales now, so it's rare to see anyone pay full price for games. Deals pop up often, especially for indie games.
  2. Indie game developers face tough times with many good games struggling to make money. Even well-made titles can fail at launch despite a lot of effort.
  3. The author is still active in game development and is excited about an upcoming project called Avernum 4: Greed and Glory, highlighting ongoing creativity in the indie scene.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Sales trends
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. Home sales in early-reporting markets fell sharply year‑over‑year (around 10.8%), though seasonally adjusted national figures may show only a small decline or be roughly flat because of seasonal factors and one fewer working day.
  2. New listings were down year‑over‑year (about 3.5%) and remain well below pre‑pandemic activity, roughly 21% lower than October 2019.
  3. Active inventory rose about 19.4% year‑over‑year, but there are large regional differences — some markets like Denver are up sharply while others like San Diego are down.
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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Sales trends
  1. The housing market is seeing more homes available for sale, with active listings up almost 29% compared to last year. This means buyers have more choices right now.
  2. Sales of homes are flat, and prices are under pressure because of the increased inventory. The new homebuilders are also reducing prices to compete.
  3. Even though there are more homes for sale, sales are still low, and the market is gradually moving back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. In October, home sales were down slightly by 0.3% compared to last year, even though they had increased by 8% the previous month. This shows that the housing market is facing some slowdowns.
  2. New home listings rose by 5.2% compared to last year, but they are still lower than levels seen in 2019. This suggests there's a cautious approach among sellers in the market.
  3. Active inventory of homes available for sale increased by 17.3% year over year, indicating more options for buyers. However, the growth is slightly lower than the previous month's increase.

Regional Sales Trends

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. Regional sales trends in the housing market can provide important insights, even when traditional data sources seem less useful.
  2. Exploring regional data might reveal trends that are missed when looking at national averages.
  3. Understanding local market conditions can help inform better decisions in the real estate sector.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Sales trends
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

How will Li Auto do going forward?

TP’s Substack • 15 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
đź’Ľ Business Sales trends
  1. Li Auto has a strong sales and product design team, but it faces tough competition from other automakers. Its sales have dropped recently, showing it might struggle to keep growing.
  2. Other companies, like BYD and Huawei, are releasing new models that might outperform Li Auto's offerings. This increased competition can make it harder for Li Auto to attract customers.
  3. Li Auto may have trouble keeping its costs down because it's unlikely to access the same high-performing batteries that competitors use. This could make it difficult for them to price their vehicles competitively.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Sales trends
  1. In June, existing home sales were around 3.92 million, which is slightly lower than May and last June. This shows a small decrease in the housing market activity.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes went up by about 1.9% compared to a year ago. This indicates that home prices are still rising even if sales are down.
  3. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will officially release the June home sales data soon. It's expected to be around 4 million sales, which is also a drop from the previous month.