The hottest Middle East Substack posts right now

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Can the U.S. Achieve Regime Change in Iran? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 412 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Prominent voices are debating whether the U.S. can and should topple Iranā€™s theocratic regime; supporters worry about the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran, while opponents warn that a preventive war could unleash far greater costs and global instability.
  2. The conflict is already exacting a human toll and spilling across the region: U.S. service members have been killed and injured, military families are struggling, and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been displaced as fighting expands.
  3. Tech and online trends are reshaping public life and security ā€” from a pricey anti-surveillance gadget and major AI industry moves to platforms expanding deepfake detection and a troubling surge in anti-Indian hate driven by a handful of accounts.

Is the Iran War Winding Downā€”or Ramping Up? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 472 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The war with Iran isnā€™t clearly ending: calming words briefly soothed markets, but tougher threats and vows to keep fighting make a quick finish unlikely.
  2. Calling for unconditional surrender is unrealistic and risky; Iran has agency and such demands are likely to prolong the conflict and raise the stakes.
  3. Iranā€™s new leader faces a precarious, paranoid situation where external pressure and internal instability make survival and effective rule very uncertain.

The Split-Screen War

Comment is Freed ā€¢ 241 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The war is split between air dominance by Israel and the US and a separate, more consequential campaign of Iranian missiles and drones that is disrupting regional economies and blocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  2. Iran planned for survival and has used regional attacks as counter-coercion, while the US and Israel lacked a clear strategy and wrongly assumed a short, decisive victory that left them unprepared for the wider economic fallout.
  3. The Iranian regime is fragile but can still leverage the chaos it creates to extract concessions, and the mounting international economic pain is increasing pressure on the US to find a negotiated way out.

Top Links 1032 Hormuz to Asia. Cuba goes solar. Gramsci on sex and production & Brecht on shooting people like me.

Chartbook ā€¢ 457 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. U.S. LNG exports have created a new decade in global gas trade, reshaping energy flows and geopolitical links from the Gulf (Hormuz) to Asian markets.
  2. Cuba is embracing solar power, marking a notable shift toward renewable energy and greater island energy resilience.
  3. There is renewed engagement with thinkers like Gramsci and Brecht, using their ideas about sex, production, and violence to rethink political and cultural conflicts.

Things Worth Remembering: The Iranian Movie to Watch This Weekend

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 709 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŽ­ļø Culture Middle East
  1. People have a natural tendency called apophenia to see patterns and make stories out of random events, a trait that once helped survival but now often fuels conspiracy and confirmation bias.
  2. Reading past art as prophetic is risky because coincidence can be mistaken for meaning, yet people do it to validate their beliefs and feel on the right side of history.
  3. The Iranian film A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night is visually striking and, in the context of Iranā€™s unrest, contains moments that feel eerily prophetic, echoing the courage of women who have risked everything to defy the government.
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The War Is Iraniansā€™ Best Chance at Peace

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1136 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Some peace advocates ignore how Iranā€™s own government represses and hurts its people, treating calm as acceptable even when citizens suffer daily.
  2. Many Iranians reject that hollow peace because the regime prizes martyrdom rhetoric and funnels scarce resources to proxies instead of caring for its people.
  3. Iranians donā€™t want war, but many see external pressure or conflict as the most likely way to end the regime and achieve a real, lasting peace.

The Middle East Is Ready for the Abraham Accords 2.0

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 324 implied HN points ā€¢ 12 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran is growing regionally isolated and its proxy forces like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas are weakened or sidelined.
  2. That isolation gives the United States and Gulf Arab states a rare strategic opening to deepen security cooperation and counter shared threats.
  3. The Abraham Accords can be upgraded from symbolic normalization into a practical, integrated security architecture linking Israel and the Gulf.

Trumpā€™s Endgame

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 848 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. The conflict will likely end when Trump personally convinces Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire, with Trumpā€™s phone call framed as the decisive moment.
  2. U.S. and Israeli forces are operating more closely than ever as a tightly integrated unit, but the underlying balance of power hasnā€™t really changed since the June 2025 joint operation against Iran ended abruptly.
  3. Any U.S. deal with Iran should demand nuclear disarmament, elimination of its missiles, and an end to proxy financing up front.

Going to War, Again, for Israel

The Chris Hedges Report ā€¢ 920 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The United States is being pulled into a war that mainly serves Israeli goals, not American interests, risking American lives and flouting international norms.
  2. Israel and its lobby have huge influence over U.S. politics, using money, trips, and pressure to secure massive military aid and political support.
  3. The conflict will be costly and prolonged, causing many deaths, spiking oil prices, regional chaos and likely long-term failure like past regime-change wars.

From October 7 to Killing Khamenei

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 843 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. A single cross-border attack on October 7 set off a 28-month war that drew in at least 18 countries and cost tens of thousands of lives.
  2. The conflict expanded largely because of miscalculations by multiple actors, turning a brief, localized assault into a sprawling, unpredictable war.
  3. By the later stages, regional power shifted: Israel emerged as the dominant military force while Iran was weakened and many leaders who started or supported the fighting were killed.

This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 454 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The war is raising the risk of a global energy crisis as strikes and threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Iranā€™s Kharg Island are disrupting oil exports and sending prices sharply higher.
  2. Iranā€™s Kurds remain the regimeā€™s most determined internal opponents and will be central to any future change, but they are unlikely to mount a large-scale invasion into Iran despite outside expectations.
  3. The conflict is reshaping geopolitics and security: it weakens Gulf hub cities and could shift finance to places like Singapore or Cape Town, while also stoking terrorism scares and contentious domestic political reactions.

Netanyahu Visits Trump for the Seventh Time Amid More Threats of a U.S. Attack on Iran

Glenn Greenwald ā€¢ 3004 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Feb 26
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. Netanyahu has unusually close access to Trump and is visiting to press him for much tougher demands on Iran, including limits (like giving up ballistic missiles) and even regime-change goals that Iran is unlikely to accept.
  2. Trump has publicly threatened military force against Iran while also saying he prefers a deal to avoid war, and past patterns and coordinated leaks raise concern that negotiations can be used to disguise or prepare strikes.
  3. The central issue is whether the U.S. will base policy on its own national interests or be drawn into a costly war that primarily serves Israeli objectives, with critics arguing the U.S. should avoid fighting Israelā€™s fights for it.

The Race to Capture the Ayatollahā€™s Treasure

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 426 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Almost 900 pounds of 60% enriched uranium are sealed in a lead-lined cache under a mountain near Isfahan, making it an extremely valuable and highly radioactive asset.
  2. The U.S. and Israel entombed the material during the June war so it appears largely inaccessible without a major excavation, but intelligence says a very narrow access point might still allow retrieval.
  3. Whoever manages to reach and secure this uraniumā€”Iran, the U.S., or Israelā€”would gain major strategic and nuclear leverage, turning control of it into a high-stakes international race.

The Saturday Read: Blasted skylines

The Saturday Read ā€¢ 459 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Oct 24
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was killed by Israeli forces, highlighting ongoing violence in Gaza. His death might temporarily limit the threat from Hamas, but deep issues remain unresolved for both sides.
  2. A kibbutz resident expressed that after recent violence, his focus has shifted solely to protecting his own family rather than helping those in Gaza. This shows the intense personal strife and survival mindset amidst conflict.
  3. The region faces a complex situation where even after Sinwar's death, the future remains uncertain. It raises concerns about possible retaliation and the rebuilding of Gaza, which has suffered immense destruction.

Matt Pottinger: Trump Could End the War Tomorrow. I Donā€™t Think He Will.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 389 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Mar 26
šŸŒ International Middle East
  1. The president said he could declare the Iran war over right now and claimed key objectives, like rolling back Iranā€™s weapons programs, have been met.
  2. At the same time he kept emphasizing reasons to keep fighting long enough to make results stick, suggesting an impulse to ā€œfinish the jobā€ rather than quit early.
  3. A former deputy national security adviser thinks the president probably wonā€™t take the offered offā€‘ramp and is more likely to let the conflict continue for weeks to ensure durable outcomes.

If You Want Freedom and Democracy For Iranian People and All Peoples, You Must Start By Admitting What America Is and Does

Freddie deBoer ā€¢ 7054 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The United States often intervenes abroad to secure strategic and economic interests, not to install genuine democracy, and can openly prioritize access to resources like oil over self-determination.
  2. Historical interventions ā€” from Iranā€™s 1953 coup to wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and recent meddling in Venezuela ā€” usually produce authoritarianism, corruption, militias, and instability instead of freedom, so skepticism of intervention is rational.
  3. Opposing U.S. intervention does not equal supporting oppressive regimes; people can want internal change while also rejecting foreign control, and restraint in using force helps avoid repeating past harms.

Is the Current Gulf War Taking Place?

The Ruffian ā€¢ 313 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Modern wars can be experienced and shaped as media spectacles, where television and narrative frame events more than straightforward facts on the ground.
  2. The 1991 Gulf War had clear geopolitical motives so the ā€˜everything is spectacleā€™ claim is too strong for that case, but the idea fits more closely with how recent conflicts play out in a media-saturated age.
  3. Leadership style and the 24/7 news/social feed change perception: steady, credible statesmanship makes actions feel discrete and serious, while erratic leadership and nonstop doomscrolling make military events seem continuous and surreal.

The Ticking Time Bomb Looming Over Gaza, And Other Notes

Caitlinā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 1960 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Israel is threatening to resume full-scale bombing of Gaza unless Hamas disarms, but Hamas has never agreed to give up its weapons, putting both sides on a collision course toward renewed mass violence.
  2. The United States allowed the last remaining nuclear arms treaty with Russia to collapse, a development that makes the world far more dangerous than the repeated alarms about Iran.
  3. U.S. imperialism and regimeā€‘change operations push other countries to clamp down and restrict freedoms to resist foreign infiltration, so American actions often make the world more authoritarian.

Simon Sebag Montefiore: The Dictator's Death and the Dawn of a New Mideast

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 843 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The killing of Iranā€™s Supreme Leader is a watershed event that could reshape Iran and the wider Middle East, with consequences that may ripple across the world.
  2. The U.S.-led strikes represent a high-stakes gamble: their aims may be noble, but the risks are enormous and the outcomes highly unpredictable, even for American democracy.
  3. Itā€™s unclear whether Iranians can turn this moment into a successful popular overthrow because they lack arms and organization, and uncertainty about succession means a new, possibly more radical leader could emerge or the regime could collapse.

Itā€™s Been One Week of War in Iran. Hereā€™s What Weā€™ve Learned.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 519 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. A joint U.S.-Israel attack killed Iranā€™s top leadership and many senior commanders, marking an unprecedented escalation in the conflict.
  2. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the region targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and other countries, which has already caused U.S. military deaths and widened the war.
  3. U.S. public support is low and many worry this could be a long, unpredictable war; experts warn it might spark internal collapse in Iran and will reshape power dynamics across the Middle East and beyond.

Iran: Competing War Narratives and the Euro Spat

eugyppius: a plague chronicle ā€¢ 96 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The war is escalating and looks bad from the American perspective, with recent Israeli strikes and strong Iranian retaliations suggesting the campaign is not going well.
  2. Attacks have begun targeting energy infrastructure ā€” including a damaging strike on Qatarā€™s Ras Laffan LNG hub ā€” raising the real risk of a severe global energy crisis if Gulf facilities or the Strait of Hormuz become contested.
  3. Three competing narratives have emerged in Western media, and a public spat between Trump and NATO allies over reopening the Strait of Hormuz highlights deep diplomatic divisions in how to respond.

Trump Keeps His Promise to Iranā€”and Takes a Big Gamble

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 853 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S. and Israel launched strikes targeting Iranā€™s nuclear sites and top leaders, with reports that the supreme leaderā€™s compound and senior commanders were hit.
  2. The operation is a major escalation and a highā€‘stakes gamble that could reshape the entire Middle East.
  3. Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up and seize their government, and Iranā€™s retaliatory strikes on Israeli and U.S. bases in the Gulf have raised the risk of a wider conflict.

The Island at the Heart of Iranā€™s War Machine

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 370 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Kharg Island is the centerpiece of Iran's energy industry and handles roughly 80ā€“90% of the country's crude oil exports.
  2. Sitting in the northern Persian Gulf just 16 miles off Iran's coast, the island is a strategic chokepoint that has been contested for centuries.
  3. Because of its outsized role in Iran's oil exports, U.S. and Israeli planners are debating whether to incapacitate or seize the island, so its fate could be decisive in a conflict with Iran.

the iranian ink blot

bad cattitude ā€¢ 252 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Iranā€™s ruling theocracy is deeply repressive and enforces severe human rights abuses, while also investing heavily in missiles, drones, and nuclear-capable programs that pose a real regional threat.
  2. The international order is shifting back toward hard-power great power competition as institutions like the UN lose influence, and actors such as China and Russia are bolstering rivals and shaping outcomes with military and technological support.
  3. There are no easy answers: using force to decapitate the regime can remove threats but risks chaos and backlash, while inaction risks ceding influence and strategic advantage to rivalsā€”both options involve serious tradeā€‘offs.

Iranian Kurds Wonā€™t March on Tehran

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 370 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Kurdish party leaders say they have no interest in operating outside the Kurdish region and are not planning a march on Tehran.
  2. U.S. officials have discussed supporting Iranian Kurdish fighters, but thereā€™s no concrete agreement or deployment yet and the idea remains hypothetical.
  3. Groups like Komala and the KDPI have bases in Iraqi Kurdistan near Iranā€™s border, yet their forces have not crossed into Iran to start an uprising.

The Clock Is Ticking for Iranā€™s New Supreme Leader

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 310 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The new Supreme Leader faces immediate personal danger because precision strikes recently killed his predecessor and other senior figures.
  2. Every smartphone, smart appliance, modern car, and camera increases the chance his location will be exposed. He needs to avoid or tightly control personal tech and public exposures to survive.
  3. Advances in sensors, data collection, and targeting have made assassinations more feasible from a distance. That change forces leaders to treat everyday technology and data as direct security threats.

Can Israel & the U.S. Sustain Iran's Military Power? (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report ā€¢ 339 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran has strong, resilient military capabilities. It has large missile stocks, uses older missiles and drones to exhaust interceptors, and has damaged expensive radar and surveillance systems while keeping hypersonic and siloed launch options for a long war.
  2. The U.S. and Israel miscalculated and overreached. Their strikes and the assassination of Iranian leaders have provoked broad regional backlash and revealed shortages in intercept capacity and contingency planning.
  3. The conflict is reshaping the region and global markets. Gulf security and the Strait of Hormuz are at risk, energy and investment flows are shifting away from Gulf hubs, and political instability is rising in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel and for Palestinians.

The Coalition That Was Built After the Bombs Fell

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 556 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Operation Epic Fury is creating a new way for regional powers to coordinate responses to Iranian attacks.
  2. During the First Gulf War, the United States spent months building a broad international coalition and prioritized Arab participation while keeping Israel out of direct action.
  3. Israel once chose restraintā€”refraining from retaliation even when targetedā€”to avoid breaking a fragile coalition, showing how political considerations can shape military responses.

Why the Kurds Hold the Key to Iranā€™s Future

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 491 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Five Iranian Kurdish opposition parties have formed a unified front aiming to topple the Islamic Republic and win Kurdish self-determination.
  2. What the Kurds do next could determine whether the Iranian regime survives or the country slides into civil war, and Kurdish regions say they may be the first to formally break from Tehran.
  3. With Iranā€™s military forces depleted by widening conflict with the U.S. and Israel, Kurdish forcesā€”already among the most committed opponents of the regimeā€”have increased leverage and influence.

The Islamic Republicā€™s Oldest Enemies

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 310 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The Kurds have been Iranā€™s most persistent and determined opposition. They are likely to be key to the regimeā€™s downfall.
  2. Soon after the 1979 revolution, signs of repression appeared in everyday life and culture. Poems and checkpoints enforcing bans showed how personal freedoms were being policed.
  3. The revolution produced violent reprisals, including summary trials and executions of Kurdish rebels and former regime loyalists.

Francis Fukuyama: Why Iran Wonā€™t Surrender

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 273 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Demanding unconditional surrender is unrealistic and risks prolonging the war instead of producing a clear, achievable outcome.
  2. Iranā€™s forces, especially the IRGC, are decentralized and prepared to continue fighting, so they are unlikely to capitulate quickly.
  3. A smarter strategy would set limited, achievable goalsā€”like degrading Iranā€™s missile and drone strike capabilitiesā€”so a leader could claim victory and disengage.

Trumpā€™s Endgame, Iranā€™s Miscalculations, and Where the War Goes Next. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 500 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Trump's likely endgame is to pressure Israel into a ceasefire, with the U.S. using its influence to force a quick end to active fighting.
  2. Iran is escalating attacks to try to force that outcome, but its recent miscalculations have backfired and left the regime more isolated while driving closer alignment between Israel and Arab states.
  3. The conflict has already sharply escalatedā€”killing U.S. personnel, striking across the region, and disrupting trade and oil marketsā€”creating a volatile situation that could either spiral further or prompt urgent diplomacy.

NZNet Digest: How Trump's war is backfiring

Nonzero Newsletter ā€¢ 338 implied HN points ā€¢ 12 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Trumpā€™s war is backfiring: itā€™s fueling antisemitism at home and strengthening hardline elements in Iran, since removing leaders has empowered more riskā€‘taking military figures.
  2. Ideologically driven US policy is undercutting practical cooperation and political support ā€” initiatives like the Shield of the Americas exclude key partners, and the war has eroded bipartisan backing for Israel.
  3. War has unpredictable, longā€‘lasting consequences: past interventions helped spawn groups like ISIS, and those chain reactions can lead to terrorism and instability years later.

Who Will Rule Iran? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 449 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. A weakened Iranian regime is likely to cling to power unless an organized force removes it, and Kurdish fighters are emerging as a pivotal force that could either topple the government or plunge the country into civil war.
  2. Widespread internet outages and the sidelining of U.S. broadcasting tools have left Iranian dissidents fragmented and made it much harder for outside actors to rally or inform domestic opposition.
  3. The conflict is already reshaping the region and global politics: U.S. strikes have degraded Iranian forces, NATO has acted to intercept missiles, and the war is producing wide political, security, and economic ripple effects.

Donald Trumpā€™s Strategy of Decapitation

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 672 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The United States and Israel, led by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, shifted from coercion to a decapitation strategy and launched strikes aimed at Iranā€™s supreme leader.
  2. Ayatollah Ali Khameneiā€™s fate is unclearā€”officials say he may be dead or hidingā€”so he is now being treated as a target rather than a negotiating partner.
  3. Planners on the attacking side had long prepared 'day after' contingencies for how to manage the situation if the supreme leader were removed.

A War the U.S. Didnā€™t Need

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 222 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. This war was a choice, not a necessity, and could have been avoided. It did not have to be fought to protect U.S. interests.
  2. There was little clear evidence of an immediate Iranian threat, and the U.S. had other options like tougher sanctions and renewed diplomacy.
  3. The costs now and in the future are likely to far outweigh any benefits, making the decision to go to war ill-advised.

How the Iranian Regime Blew It

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 496 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. The Islamic Republic set out in 1979 to remake the Middle East by defeating Zionism, pushing out the United States, and establishing Tehranā€™s hegemony.
  2. The postā€“October 7, 2023 wars produced outcomes largely opposite to those aims, weakening rather than eliminating Israeli and U.S. influence.
  3. Iranā€™s decisions and actions since those wars have further damaged its regional standing, reducing Tehranā€™s influence instead of expanding it.

Hezbollah Isn't An Iranian "Proxy"

JoeWrote ā€¢ 27 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. Calling Hezbollah "Iran's proxy" is misleading because it erases the group's independent history, local support, and distinct strategic aims.
  2. Hezbollah grew out of specific Lebanese political and social conditions and pursues its own goals rather than acting solely as an instrument of Iran.
  3. Framing Hezbollah as a proxy is used to delegitimize opposition and to justify Israeli military actions while obscuring the humanitarian costs for civilians.

How the World Just Changed. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 375 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. A U.S.-Israel strike that killed Iranā€™s supreme leader has set off a week of intense retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks that killed U.S. service members. The conflictā€™s duration and who will rule Iran next are still deeply uncertain.
  2. The war is reshaping U.S. politics, with Trump firing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and publicly splitting from Tucker Carlson, exposing fractures in the right-wing movement. These fights could change presidential politics and media alliances.
  3. The crisis has big global stakes: it shifts the regional balance of power, ties into broader U.S.-China competition, and raises the risk of wider war or civil conflict in Iran depending on succession and opposition forces. Analysts warn that internal divisions, like the Kurdish factor, will be crucial to how the situation unfolds.

Killing Khamenei: Regime-Change Roulette in a Powder-Keg World

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality ā€¢ 407 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Middle East
  1. A USā€“Israeli decapitation strike that killed Iranā€™s supreme leader removed a key figure but probably wonā€™t guarantee the regimeā€™s collapse. Iranā€™s overlapping institutions mean it could become a harder-line military junta, descend into a messy power struggle, or wage prolonged resistance.
  2. The attack undercuts arms-control credibility and signals that diplomacy may not protect states, so regional powers are likely to race to build, harden, and disperse nuclear or other deterrent capabilities. That incentive structure makes proliferation and future crises more likely.
  3. This war has no clear endgame, strains US military resources needed to deter rivals elsewhere, and risks serious economic disruption by threatening oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz. It also normalizes leader-targeting and preventive decapitation tactics, increasing the chance of catastrophic escalation.