The hottest Iran Substack posts right now

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How Israel Is Hunting Members of the Iranian Regime

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 811 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Israel has escalated operations against Iranian regime officials, with the Israeli Air Force operating over Tehran and strikes growing more daring and consequential.
  2. Iranā€™s leadership was caught off guard because it behaved like a conventional state and underestimated the risk, unlike groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah that accept becoming targets when they attack Israel.
  3. Top Iranian security figures are taking extreme precautionsā€”moving frequently and avoiding predictable patternsā€”to avoid being targeted.

Israel Once Again Decapitates the Serpent

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 792 implied HN points ā€¢ 17 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Israel reportedly killed several top Iranian security figures, including Ali Larijani.
  2. Larijani had recently become head of Iranā€™s Supreme National Security Council and was seen as the most powerful remaining military/security leader in the regime.
  3. The strike is a major, unprecedented blow that creates a leadership vacuum and raises big questions about who will lead Iranā€™s security apparatus next.

The Home Front of the Iran War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 820 implied HN points ā€¢ 16 Mar 26
šŸŒ International Iran
  1. A vehicle packed with explosives was driven into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan while about 140 children under five were attending preschool, and the building was set on fire.
  2. The suspect, identified as Lebanese-born U.S. citizen Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, was later found dead; a security guard was struck and more than 50 first responders were treated for smoke inhalation.
  3. The piece frames the attack as the war in Iran spilling onto American soil and argues that we canā€™t defeat terrorism if weā€™re afraid to identify its source.

This Isnā€™t Israelā€™s War. Itā€™s Americaā€™s.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 4535 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. America is fighting in Iran for bigger strategic reasons ā€” Iranā€™s alignment with China and the global competition that represents, not just regional issues.
  2. Israel is a capable local partner and beneficiary of U.S. action, but it did not drive Washington into this conflict.
  3. Framing it as 'Israel's war' misreads the situation and can mislead public debate and policy by hiding the larger geopolitical stakes.

The World the Fatwa Made

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 2235 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A short religious edict can act like a weapon, inspiring violence and fear far beyond the borders of the state that issues it.
  2. The fatwa against Salman Rushdie shows how a few broadcast words can export an ideology and keep threatening people even if the issuing regime weakens or falls.
  3. Words and religious rulings can be more enduring and influential than missiles or militias, shaping politics and danger for decades.
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How This War Ends

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1010 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. This conflict is more like a Cold War than Afghanistan, meaning it calls for a long-term strategic containment campaign rather than short counterinsurgency operations.
  2. U.S. goals have been inconsistent and shifting, so it's unclear which objectives would end the war or be accepted as 'victory'.
  3. Victory would require massive initial military force followed by sustained total containment, unless the Iranian regime collapses or is overthrown internally.

The Posthumous Makeover of Ali Khamenei

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 2021 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Iranā€™s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed when U.S. and Israeli strikes reduced his Tehran compound to rubble, and many Iranians at home and in the diaspora celebrated his death.
  2. He was widely seen as a symbol of oppression and the architect of decades of terror at home and abroad, blamed for the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
  3. Major Western media outlets published obituaries that softened his record and dressed him up as a statesman instead of confronting his role in repression and violence.

Where in the World Is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 556 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be injured and is being kept out of public view after the initial USā€“Israeli strikes.
  2. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders have likely taken charge of the regime and are running the war in his stead.
  3. The regime is leaning on performative displays of loyaltyā€”like a taped cardboard cutout at ralliesā€”which exposes efforts to hide instability and maintain appearances.

The Iran Strike Is All About China

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1604 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran is meant to weaken a key pillar of Chinaā€™s regional strategy, not just punish Iran for sponsoring terrorism.
  2. China has spent billions building Iran into a strategic asset and supplying the regime with tools to survive domestic popular rejection.
  3. The attack signals a broader push to reshape regional power in the Indo-Pacific and roll back Beijingā€™s growing architecture of influence.

This Is How the Islamic Republic Falls

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1423 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The U.S. and Israeli air strikes hit Iranā€™s infrastructure and were portrayed as a move to open a better future for the Iranian people.
  2. The strikes came after weeks of diplomacy, naval buildup, and Western frustration that threats and demands hadnā€™t changed Iranā€™s behavior.
  3. The Islamic Republic doesnā€™t always respond like a rational state; its revolutionary ideology is weakening its hold on the population and eroding its domestic power.

Things Worth Remembering: The Iranian Movie to Watch This Weekend

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 709 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŽ­ļø Culture Iran
  1. People have a natural tendency called apophenia to see patterns and make stories out of random events, a trait that once helped survival but now often fuels conspiracy and confirmation bias.
  2. Reading past art as prophetic is risky because coincidence can be mistaken for meaning, yet people do it to validate their beliefs and feel on the right side of history.
  3. The Iranian film A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night is visually striking and, in the context of Iranā€™s unrest, contains moments that feel eerily prophetic, echoing the courage of women who have risked everything to defy the government.

The War Is Iraniansā€™ Best Chance at Peace

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1136 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Some peace advocates ignore how Iranā€™s own government represses and hurts its people, treating calm as acceptable even when citizens suffer daily.
  2. Many Iranians reject that hollow peace because the regime prizes martyrdom rhetoric and funnels scarce resources to proxies instead of caring for its people.
  3. Iranians donā€™t want war, but many see external pressure or conflict as the most likely way to end the regime and achieve a real, lasting peace.

From October 7 to Killing Khamenei

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 843 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A single cross-border attack on October 7 set off a 28-month war that drew in at least 18 countries and cost tens of thousands of lives.
  2. The conflict expanded largely because of miscalculations by multiple actors, turning a brief, localized assault into a sprawling, unpredictable war.
  3. By the later stages, regional power shifted: Israel emerged as the dominant military force while Iran was weakened and many leaders who started or supported the fighting were killed.

The Race to Capture the Ayatollahā€™s Treasure

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 426 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Almost 900 pounds of 60% enriched uranium are sealed in a lead-lined cache under a mountain near Isfahan, making it an extremely valuable and highly radioactive asset.
  2. The U.S. and Israel entombed the material during the June war so it appears largely inaccessible without a major excavation, but intelligence says a very narrow access point might still allow retrieval.
  3. Whoever manages to reach and secure this uraniumā€”Iran, the U.S., or Israelā€”would gain major strategic and nuclear leverage, turning control of it into a high-stakes international race.

Simon Sebag Montefiore: The Dictator's Death and the Dawn of a New Mideast

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 843 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The killing of Iranā€™s Supreme Leader is a watershed event that could reshape Iran and the wider Middle East, with consequences that may ripple across the world.
  2. The U.S.-led strikes represent a high-stakes gamble: their aims may be noble, but the risks are enormous and the outcomes highly unpredictable, even for American democracy.
  3. Itā€™s unclear whether Iranians can turn this moment into a successful popular overthrow because they lack arms and organization, and uncertainty about succession means a new, possibly more radical leader could emerge or the regime could collapse.

Itā€™s Been One Week of War in Iran. Hereā€™s What Weā€™ve Learned.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 519 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A joint U.S.-Israel attack killed Iranā€™s top leadership and many senior commanders, marking an unprecedented escalation in the conflict.
  2. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the region targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and other countries, which has already caused U.S. military deaths and widened the war.
  3. U.S. public support is low and many worry this could be a long, unpredictable war; experts warn it might spark internal collapse in Iran and will reshape power dynamics across the Middle East and beyond.

Iranian Kurds Wonā€™t March on Tehran

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 370 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Kurdish party leaders say they have no interest in operating outside the Kurdish region and are not planning a march on Tehran.
  2. U.S. officials have discussed supporting Iranian Kurdish fighters, but thereā€™s no concrete agreement or deployment yet and the idea remains hypothetical.
  3. Groups like Komala and the KDPI have bases in Iraqi Kurdistan near Iranā€™s border, yet their forces have not crossed into Iran to start an uprising.

The Clock Is Ticking for Iranā€™s New Supreme Leader

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 310 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The new Supreme Leader faces immediate personal danger because precision strikes recently killed his predecessor and other senior figures.
  2. Every smartphone, smart appliance, modern car, and camera increases the chance his location will be exposed. He needs to avoid or tightly control personal tech and public exposures to survive.
  3. Advances in sensors, data collection, and targeting have made assassinations more feasible from a distance. That change forces leaders to treat everyday technology and data as direct security threats.

The Islamic Republicā€™s Oldest Enemies

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 310 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The Kurds have been Iranā€™s most persistent and determined opposition. They are likely to be key to the regimeā€™s downfall.
  2. Soon after the 1979 revolution, signs of repression appeared in everyday life and culture. Poems and checkpoints enforcing bans showed how personal freedoms were being policed.
  3. The revolution produced violent reprisals, including summary trials and executions of Kurdish rebels and former regime loyalists.

Francis Fukuyama: Why Iran Wonā€™t Surrender

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 273 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Demanding unconditional surrender is unrealistic and risks prolonging the war instead of producing a clear, achievable outcome.
  2. Iranā€™s forces, especially the IRGC, are decentralized and prepared to continue fighting, so they are unlikely to capitulate quickly.
  3. A smarter strategy would set limited, achievable goalsā€”like degrading Iranā€™s missile and drone strike capabilitiesā€”so a leader could claim victory and disengage.

Trumpā€™s Endgame, Iranā€™s Miscalculations, and Where the War Goes Next. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 500 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Trump's likely endgame is to pressure Israel into a ceasefire, with the U.S. using its influence to force a quick end to active fighting.
  2. Iran is escalating attacks to try to force that outcome, but its recent miscalculations have backfired and left the regime more isolated while driving closer alignment between Israel and Arab states.
  3. The conflict has already sharply escalatedā€”killing U.S. personnel, striking across the region, and disrupting trade and oil marketsā€”creating a volatile situation that could either spiral further or prompt urgent diplomacy.

Hezbollah Isn't An Iranian "Proxy"

JoeWrote ā€¢ 27 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Calling Hezbollah "Iran's proxy" is misleading because it erases the group's independent history, local support, and distinct strategic aims.
  2. Hezbollah grew out of specific Lebanese political and social conditions and pursues its own goals rather than acting solely as an instrument of Iran.
  3. Framing Hezbollah as a proxy is used to delegitimize opposition and to justify Israeli military actions while obscuring the humanitarian costs for civilians.

How the World Just Changed. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 375 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A U.S.-Israel strike that killed Iranā€™s supreme leader has set off a week of intense retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks that killed U.S. service members. The conflictā€™s duration and who will rule Iran next are still deeply uncertain.
  2. The war is reshaping U.S. politics, with Trump firing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and publicly splitting from Tucker Carlson, exposing fractures in the right-wing movement. These fights could change presidential politics and media alliances.
  3. The crisis has big global stakes: it shifts the regional balance of power, ties into broader U.S.-China competition, and raises the risk of wider war or civil conflict in Iran depending on succession and opposition forces. Analysts warn that internal divisions, like the Kurdish factor, will be crucial to how the situation unfolds.

The Iceberg Ahead

Johnā€™s Substack ā€¢ 16 implied HN points ā€¢ 21 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The conflict with Iran is getting worse every day and risks spiraling into a much larger war.
  2. The president allowed Israel to push him toward war with Iran, which was a serious mistake, and he seems to have no clear plan to fix it.
  3. A major crisis is looming like an iceberg ahead, so urgent steps are needed now to steer away from catastrophe.

ā€˜If You Look at Peopleā€™s Eyes, All of the Light Is Coming Backā€™

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 375 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Many Iranian Americans feel both sorrow for protesters killed and renewed hope that the supreme leader's death could open a real chance for democracy and greater freedom in Iran.
  2. Public gatherings in Washington shifted from vigils to celebrations, with people waving U.S., Israeli, and prerevolutionary Iranian flags and expressing support for Reza Pahlavi as a transitional leader.
  3. Some attendees said the strike fulfilled promises of outside help toward regime change and voiced frustration with Democrats who opposed the attacks.

John Bolton: If There Ever Were a Moment to Topple Iran, This Is It

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 380 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The US and Israel launched a major joint military operation called Operation Epic Fury that struck Iranā€™s regime infrastructure and reportedly killed top leaders including the supreme leader.
  2. President Trump presents the strikes as a chance to destroy Iranā€™s missile and nuclear programs and as an opportunity for regime change that could free the Iranian people.
  3. John Bolton strongly supports the operation, calling it justified and necessary and arguing that removing Iranā€™s top leaders will likely cause the regime to fall.

Trumpā€™s Rules of War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 255 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸŒ International Iran
  1. He set clear rules for using U.S. military power ā€” no ground troops, no nationā€‘building, and quick ā€œoneā€‘andā€‘doneā€ strikes.
  2. In the current Iran confrontation heā€™s breaking those rules, moving away from brief strikes toward a potentially multiā€‘week campaign.
  3. His approach to war is changeable: in recent days he has broken some rules, kept others, and abandoned a long American taboo, showing his tactics shift with circumstances.

You Know They're Lying About Iran

Caitlinā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 2300 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A familiar propaganda script is being used to push for intervention in Iran, repeating the same claims about oppression and the need for military 'help'.
  2. Media and empire apologists often use human-rights rhetoric, nuance-policing, and false both-sides arguments to steer public opinion toward war.
  3. Trust your own judgment, resist being shouted down by loud voices, and be skeptical of narrative distortion and recycled talking points.

Hafiz; Ervand Abrahamian; Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi

Unpopular Front ā€¢ 35 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A classic poet casts spiritual and romantic struggle as a kind of holy war, urging tenderness and a questioning of rigid ideas about God.
  2. Sanctions have devastated Iranā€™s salaried middle class and driven many into deep poverty, creating widespread economic resentment, yet the regime still rests on a lower-middle-class base tied to the Revolutionary Guards and will likely fight to stay in power.
  3. Western focus on Iranā€™s missiles and proxies may overstate their practical threat, and calls for regime change ignore how deeply the IRGC is embedded; pressing too hard risks prolonged conflict or efforts to break the country apart like in other cases.

Google suspends ad account linked to Atlanta influencer which was used to recruit Iranian agents for the Mossad

All-Source Intelligence Fusion ā€¢ 1566 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Google suspended the verified ad account tied to Desi Banks Productions LLC and removed the Mossad recruitment ads for violating its advertising policies.
  2. The ads were part of an international campaign linked to the 'Blue Message' network that used deceptive bait-and-switch tactics and targeted family members of Iranian officials, LGBTQ Iranians, and people across multiple countries to recruit Mossad assets.
  3. Desi Banks denied knowledge of the ads while independent investigations showed the campaign operated across Telegram, X, and Google Forms and used AI-generated and misleading content.

You Can't Cheer For Regime Change In Iran Without Also Cheering For The US Empire

Caitlinā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 1932 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. US and allied actions like crushing sanctions and covert meddling have been used to weaken Iran by hurting ordinary people, which fuels unrest and can function as engineered pressure for regime change.
  2. Backing regime change in Iran effectively helps the US-centered imperial project, so opposing state violence while cheering for regime change is inconsistent and ultimately strengthens a more powerful, abusive actor.
  3. Whatā€™s needed is to weaken that western imperial power rather than topple its enemies into the empireā€™s hands, because real freedom depends on dismantling centralized global domination, not expanding it.

With ā€˜Epic Furyā€™, regime change radicals go to war on Iran

Aaron Mate ā€¢ 196 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. The US and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury" to pursue regime change in Iran, carrying out assassinations and bombings that caused heavy civilian casualties and quickly widened the fighting across the region.
  2. What looked like diplomacy was largely a cover, as US negotiators pretended to seek a deal while preparing military strikes and undermining a possible agreement.
  3. The official reasons for war ā€” that Iran was on the brink of a nuclear weapon or an imminent missile threat ā€” were exaggerated or false, suggesting the action is ideologically driven and risks a catastrophic, open-ended conflict.

The Iranian Regime Is Betting on American Casualties

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 153 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Previous rounds of titā€‘forā€‘tat strikes were carefully choreographed to avoid killing Americans, often causing little damage or no casualties.
  2. After U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iranā€™s supreme leader and other senior figures, Iran launched wide retaliatory attacks using ballistic missiles and drones across the region.
  3. Unlike earlier exchanges, the regime now appears to be risking a major escalation and is effectively betting on causing American casualties to press its advantage.

I Wrote a Novel About War. Now Iā€™m Watching It Unfold in Iran.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 134 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Feb 26
šŸŒ International Iran
  1. Scenarios once written as fictionā€”Russian warships operating near Iran, hypersonic threats to U.S. carriers, and a regime desperate to surviveā€”are now playing out in reality.
  2. Sudden events like the drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani can rapidly upend strategic assumptions and force analysts to rewrite their plans.
  3. Collaborating with experienced military thinkers can help fiction anticipate real crises, highlighting how fragile and fast-changing international security has become.

Forty Days Later, Iranians Honor Their Dead

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 204 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Forty-day memorials are being held across Iran to honor people killed in last monthā€™s demonstrations, a culturally important moment of mourning.
  2. Families are staging symbolic wedding ritualsā€”like parading a wedding dress, lifting khoncheh baskets, and decorating carsā€”to mourn young lives and the milestones that will never happen.
  3. Those 40th-day gatherings are also acting as a new form of protest, and they could spark another wave of demonstrations fueled by grief and anger.

Reza Pahlavi: Iranā€™s Reluctant Prince

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 394 implied HN points ā€¢ 03 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. Reza Pahlavi positioned himself as a potential leader during mass protests, calling Iranians to demonstrate and saying he has a lifelong bond with the nation.
  2. These protests were unusual because the economy was collapsing and the merchant class shut their bazaars, swelling the crowds, while the U.S. publicly signaled support for protesters.
  3. Despite his rising profile, many still question whether an exiled crown prince is fit or the right choice to lead a post-regime Iran.

An Uncomfortable, But Justified, War

QTRā€™s Fringe Finance ā€¢ 58 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Iran
  1. A coordinated strike was justified as a way to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to degrade the leadership and military capabilities that posed long-term regional threats.
  2. War is tragic and should be rare, but a limited, targeted use of force to stop an existential threat is different from open-ended regime change; credible deterrence sometimes requires decisive action.
  3. Critics who insist diplomacy alone will suffice overlook how nuclear programs advance without coercive measures, and foreign policy choices are made at the national level rather than by local officials.