The hottest Middle East Substack posts right now

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The Oligarchical Corridor

Thinking about... • 724 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. A small network of wealthy private actors and close advisers — an "oligarchical corridor" — is shaping major foreign policy choices by bypassing official institutions and public debate.
  2. The war with Iran appears to benefit foreign states and wealthy interests (notably Israel, Saudi Arabia, and in some respects Russia) while harming US strategic interests by wasting weapons, weakening allies, and showing tactical unpreparedness.
  3. This dynamic erodes American institutions and citizen influence, leaving force and policy to private deals and personal loyalties, and recognizing that trend is the first step toward restoring democratic accountability.

Chartbook 435: All perversions have their acting out. Reading Baudrillard on the weekend of the attack on Iran.

Chartbook • 2532 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Mass media turns real events into consumable signs and spectacles, so people get the dizzy thrill of catastrophe at a safe distance instead of actually engaging with history or violence.
  2. Private everyday life uses those media signs to justify passivity and security, craving dramatized violence so inaction feels morally acceptable and emotionally thrilling.
  3. There is a tension today: some military actions are driven by real geopolitical aims but occur without public preparation or legitimation, which raises the question of whether the media‑spectacle framework still fully explains contemporary war‑making.

Why Americans Should Root for Iran

Nonzero Newsletter • 1615 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran’s war aim is to make future attacks on it too costly so they won’t be repeated, and if it succeeds that could push Gulf states to help build a more stable regional security architecture.
  2. Israel’s strategy of repeated punitive strikes (the “mowing the lawn” approach) and recent U.S.-backed attacks have been major drivers of instability, so political checks on such adventurism would likely reduce future violence.
  3. Many Iranian actions are reactive to past foreign interventions, so labeling Iran the sole destabilizer ignores important context; negotiated guarantees, sanctions relief, or a return to nuclear diplomacy could help lock in a lasting ceasefire and fewer future deaths.

Iran Is Morally Superior To The United States

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2994 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The United States is depicted as morally worse than Iran because it carries out far more murderous, tyrannical, and destructive actions around the world.
  2. US global power is argued to come from deliberate aggression — wars, bombings, coups, sanctions, and nuclear brinkmanship — rather than mere happenstance of strength.
  3. Many Westerners conflate personal comfort with moral judgement, overlooking that US violence is exported abroad and thus the US is morally unqualified to dictate how other countries like Iran should be run.

A Strategic Failure in Iran

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. A short, intense bombing campaign caused tactical damage but failed to achieve its strategic goals: Iran’s nuclear program survives and the regime remains intact, with hardliners gaining strength.
  2. Claims that Iran was only weeks from a bomb lacked credible evidence, and U.S. negotiators and intelligence failures meant diplomacy was mishandled while airpower alone cannot destroy dispersed, deeply buried nuclear materials.
  3. The conflict risks dragging the United States into a prolonged, costly war that disrupts global energy markets and may incentivize Iran to keep or pursue nuclear capabilities, so further escalation would be dangerous and costly.
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Precision and Perfection

Pieter’s Newsletter • 259 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Israel's recent attack on Iran was smart and planned, aiming to weaken Iran's defenses without causing much harm to civilians.
  2. The attack has raised doubts about Iran's leadership and how they protect their citizens, leading to growing discontent among the Iranian people.
  3. The situation highlights a stark contrast between Israel's modern military and Iran's struggling forces, showing a potential for change in the region.

The Iran War and Barakah

Gordian Knot News • 124 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The Iran War could lead to an attack on the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE, creating a real risk of radioactive release.
  2. Having a reliable plume dispersion model and an accurate radiation harm model ready is essential, because poor modeling or panic can multiply the actual harm.
  3. Common tools like MACCS2 for plumes and the linear no‑threshold (LNT) harm model are inadequate and using them would worsen the response, yet no organization currently appears to have the right capability—a serious system failure.

Iran Turns The Table On Trump.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 72 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran has effectively taken control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, showing it can influence global oil flows and undercut the US goal of controlling oil trade and dollar dominance.
  2. US efforts to seize foreign oil and pressure allies have backfired and exposed American weakness, while Russia and China’s support for Iran deters military intervention.
  3. Iran’s strikes, reportedly using hypersonic weapons, have seriously damaged Israeli military and nuclear sites, raising fears of nuclear escalation while making any nuclear strike on Iran seem catastrophic and likely to fail or provoke massive retaliation.

US Calls Iranian Retaliatory Strikes "Unprovoked", And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3073 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Military action by the US and Israel against Iran has escalated into open conflict, killing Iranian civilians—including many schoolgirls—and causing US military casualties after Iran’s retaliatory strikes.
  2. US officials calling Iran’s strikes “unprovoked” looks hypocritical given the prior attacks, and the information war is full of misattribution and propaganda.
  3. Iran is refusing quick deals and says it must inflict costs to establish deterrence, while the wider conflict is worsening humanitarian crises like Gaza’s border closure and looming food shortages.

Debating the Ex-IDF Spokesman About the War in Iran on Piers Morgan's Show, with Mike Pence

Glenn Greenwald • 2787 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The war with Iran is rapidly expanding and risks turning into a wider regional conflict, which is driving intense public and media debates.
  2. Some prominent U.S. figures remain steadfast in defending past military interventions and continue to advocate for new wars with little change in their arguments.
  3. Participants questioned whether Israel places key military and intelligence command centers inside residential areas of Tel Aviv, and former military spokespeople gave responses that many found revealing.

Iranians Use an App to Map Military Bases and Missile Sites—and So Does Israel

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. There is a civilian-run app that lets ordinary Iranians geotag military bases and missile sites on a map, and it can work even during government internet blackouts.
  2. Israeli intelligence has been using the crowd-sourced geotags from that app to help identify and sometimes strike targets like missile launch sites.
  3. The app was created by an Iranian-American activist and is tied to anti-regime sentiment, with many citizens reporting locations to oppose the government.

What Iranians Really Think About the War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1321 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. People are terrified and exhausted by heavy bombing, but many feel they've lived under state terror for decades.
  2. The state appears to be unraveling and many hope the conflict might end the regime, though past brutal crackdowns make people wary of what comes next.
  3. The war is causing real civilian suffering and uncertainty, with strikes aimed at regime sites but still killing children and making daily life dominated by explosions and rumors.

TGIF: Get Them Before They Get Me

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1929 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The US has begun bombing Iran and claims fast success, while Iran has retaliated across the region but with a largely ineffective showing.
  2. Trump is loudly taking personal credit for the strikes and even talks about influencing who replaces Iranian leaders, treating the conflict like a personal victory lap.
  3. The war is reshaping American politics: some GOP figures are being sidelined into symbolic 'war room' roles while older leaders keep control, leaving parts of the Republican right politically damaged.

IRAN'S UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

Seymour Hersh • 26 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The US-Israel bombing campaign has already disrupted global energy and shipping, causing fuel shortages and halting much traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  2. Iran seems to lack strong anti-aircraft defenses so far, so strikes have been largely uncontested, but Iran has not surrendered and the conflict could become prolonged and uncertain.
  3. Decision-makers missed unpredictable risks — the “unknown unknowns” — leading to unforeseen strategic and economic fallout and raising doubts about leadership competence.

Timeline: The March To War With Iran

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2542 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S. and Israel moved from sanctions and covert planning to open military strikes, culminating in a large joint operation aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities and pushing for regime change.
  2. Diplomacy and inspections continued even as attacks happened: multiple U.S.–Iran talks mediated by Oman, IAEA oversight, and snapback UN sanctions all unfolded, but experts disagreed about how much Iran’s nuclear program was actually degraded.
  3. Mass protests in Iran and a violent government crackdown, combined with economic pressure like a deliberate dollar shortage, became focal points for international action and rhetoric, deepening regional instability and splitting global responses.

The US is on the brink of a major new war that Trump has not even bothered explaining

Glenn Greenwald • 4302 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S. has sent a massive military buildup near Iran, creating a real risk of a major new war without clear public explanation or meaningful congressional debate.
  2. The official reasons given for confronting Iran — claims about its nuclear program, human rights, and missile threats — are inconsistent or unpersuasive as a basis for full-scale military action.
  3. Despite rhetoric about pivoting away from the region, the U.S. remains deeply entangled in the Middle East, and close ties to Israel and influential pro-Israel actors appear to be driving American moves toward conflict with Iran.

Tiffany Trump's Big Moment: Finally!

Vicky Ward Investigates • 459 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. Tiffany Trump's pregnancy is seen as a strategic move for Donald Trump to connect with Arab American voters in Michigan. This could help him gain support in a key swing state.
  2. Michael Boulos, Tiffany's husband, has a Lebanese background which adds a new dimension to Trump's political outreach. Trump's comments show an attempt to appeal to the Arab community while maintaining his stance on foreign policy.
  3. The influence of Michael's father, Massad Boulos, is growing. He is actively lobbying for Trump's campaign and could play a significant role in future political dynamics.

Big Joe Jafurah

Doomberg • 7264 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
🌐 International Middle East
  1. The Middle East still burns a huge amount of oil for electricity — roughly 1.8 million barrels per day — showing local energy use has been wasteful and oil-heavy.
  2. Many countries in the region have underdeveloped natural gas sectors: even with Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia included, overall gas output trails major producers and flaring has risen to nearly 5 billion cubic feet per day, wasting valuable fuel.
  3. That is changing fast—global LNG and gas infrastructure expansion is pushing the Middle East to develop and export its gas, and the region’s gas landscape will look very different within the next five years with major global impacts.

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 524 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and declared that closure part of its official policy, blocking commercial traffic.
  2. The U.S. can reopen the strait by military force, but it would be risky, require a large, sustained naval effort, and likely take weeks before civilian shipping is safe.
  3. Historical operations show the U.S. has protected Gulf shipping and struck Iranian forces before, but the current campaign would be larger and more complex.

The Posthumous Makeover of Ali Khamenei

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2021 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed when U.S. and Israeli strikes reduced his Tehran compound to rubble, and many Iranians at home and in the diaspora celebrated his death.
  2. He was widely seen as a symbol of oppression and the architect of decades of terror at home and abroad, blamed for the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
  3. Major Western media outlets published obituaries that softened his record and dressed him up as a statesman instead of confronting his role in repression and violence.

What The Longest State Of The Union In History Didn't Clarify

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2800 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. The State of the Union was the longest in history and full of soaring rhetoric, but it did little to ease fears that a new Middle East quagmire may be coming.
  2. The speech emphasized themes of war and peace and highlighted claims like the capture of Nicolas Maduro and an end to eight wars, yet offered few concrete policy details.
  3. Iran loomed largest in the debate, with leaders stressing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs as a national security threat, signaling pressure for measures that could heighten the risk of conflict.

NZNet Digest: Lawlessness as the New Normal

Nonzero Newsletter • 361 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. International rules are breaking down as powerful actors carry out unlawful actions. Most opposition focuses on cost or practicality instead of principle, which weakens the rules‑based order and makes negotiations harder.
  2. AI tools are reshaping software work: open‑source agents and “vibe‑coding” let non‑experts prototype quickly and can feel like having multiple engineers. The durable value, however, is likely to concentrate in the models, training data, and infrastructure rather than the interchangeable builders.
  3. Breaking informal norms at home can unravel social expectations and normalize harmful behavior. That erosion shows up in politics, community safety concerns, and debates over public symbols of support for foreign governments.

Niall Ferguson: Khamenei May Be Gone, but Iran 2026 Is Not Iraq 2003

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2109 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran are expected to be short and limited rather than a long, drawn-out war.
  2. This action is being framed as different from the 2003 Iraq invasion — focused more on targeted “regime alteration” than on full-scale regime change and occupation.
  3. Many critics will compare this to past U.S. interventions and warn that aggressive American actions often cause widespread damage and have mixed, unpredictable outcomes.

The Second Phase of the Iran War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 259 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌐 International Middle East
  1. The U.S. and Israel have spent the first phase trying to decapitate Iran’s leadership and weaken its military power.
  2. Their announced next goal is to end Iran’s nuclear program for good.
  3. This represents a strategic shift toward targeting nuclear infrastructure and signals a potentially longer, more intense campaign with big regional and diplomatic consequences.

Niall Ferguson: Could This Be the Start of World War III?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1201 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could act as a flashpoint leading to a much larger, possibly global, war.
  2. People are once again asking if the new conflict could become World War III, similar to the alarm that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  3. Concerns that this could escalate into a broader conflagration are serious and not an unreasonable overreaction.

In Praise of Trump's Leader-Decapitation Strategy

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1926 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Middle East
  1. Targeted killing of hostile leaders is an effective, achievable foreign-policy tool that can reduce threats without full-scale nation building.
  2. The United States should favor limited, precise actions like leader-decapitation over large, costly interventions and long occupations.
  3. This approach still carries real risks of escalation and unintended consequences, so it must be used carefully and isn’t a cure-all.

Towards a Greater Middle Eastern War & Defeat in Ukraine

Glenn’s Substack • 1039 implied HN points • 24 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The conflict in Gaza is spreading and could bring in more countries, which worries local leaders facing protests for not being tougher against Israel and the US.
  2. Ukraine is struggling with a lack of resources, and the situation is getting worse as public support is fading and political divisions grow.
  3. Both the Middle East and Ukraine are heading towards major wars, and the US seems to lack a clear plan to deal with these rising tensions.

Midweek Update #2: The Two Wars

Phillips’s Newsletter • 346 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The US and Israel are running a high-tech air campaign that can strike many targets and kill leaders, but that military edge has not yet forced political collapse or produced internal allies to end the war.
  2. Iran is fighting a very different, low-cost campaign that uses its coastline, drones, and sea drones to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt the global economy in order to pressure opponents politically.
  3. Both sides are racing against time: US political pressure (especially on the president) raises the risk of escalation, while Iran hopes to outlast strikes, so the conflict could intensify before it eases.

Where in the World Is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 556 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Mojtaba Khamenei appears to be injured and is being kept out of public view after the initial US–Israeli strikes.
  2. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders have likely taken charge of the regime and are running the war in his stead.
  3. The regime is leaning on performative displays of loyalty—like a taped cardboard cutout at rallies—which exposes efforts to hide instability and maintain appearances.

The Iran Strike Is All About China

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1604 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran is meant to weaken a key pillar of China’s regional strategy, not just punish Iran for sponsoring terrorism.
  2. China has spent billions building Iran into a strategic asset and supplying the regime with tools to survive domestic popular rejection.
  3. The attack signals a broader push to reshape regional power in the Indo-Pacific and roll back Beijing’s growing architecture of influence.

No Bro This War Will Be Completely Different, Bro

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2281 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Claims that a new US war will be "completely different" reuse the same comforting talking points, and history shows similar interventions in the region often cause harm.
  2. Mainstream media, think tanks, and officials frequently justify intervention with WMD scares, humanitarian rhetoric, or promises of bringing democracy, so those narratives deserve close skepticism.
  3. Opposition is commonly met with ad hominem attacks and assurances that leaders will quickly fix mistakes, but real accountability and course-correction rarely follow, so be wary of simplistic reassurances.

What I'm reading about Dubai influencers, data-center missile strikes, and Iran; a great and sleazy Elmore Leonard adaptation, and more

Read Max • 711 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. A curated reading list dives into the war in Iran, covering unexpected angles like Dubai influencers, undersea cables, missile attacks on data centers, and the strain on the foreign-policy establishment and international law.
  2. A stylish, sleazy film adaptation of an Elmore Leonard story is highlighted and recommended.
  3. Four music tracks are recommended, and subscribers are offered extras like weekly emails, curated master lists, and merch, with some links that may pay a small commission.

Why America is Losing the War With Iran (w/ John Mearsheimer) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report • 345 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S. and Israel miscalculated by launching the attack on Iran; there is no clear military exit and the campaign risks a humiliating defeat that could weaken American influence in the region.
  2. Iran is using a smart asymmetric strategy—missiles, drones, and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz while targeting energy and desalination infrastructure—to inflict economic pain and gain bargaining leverage.
  3. The conflict could trigger a major global economic shock, push Gulf states to rethink their ties with the U.S., and draw more Russian and Chinese support for Iran, multiplying long-term geopolitical risks for Israel and America.

Postscript to a postscript

Material World • 1597 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Two facilities on the Persian Gulf — one for oil and one for gas — handle a huge share of the world’s hydrocarbons, and almost all of that production must leave by sea through the Strait of Hormuz.
  2. Those terminals are physically concentrated and within reach of missiles and drones, so recent closures show how quickly supply can be halted by military or proxy attacks.
  3. Political leaders often underestimate how vital and vulnerable this physical energy infrastructure is, and disruptions to it can trigger serious economic and geopolitical turbulence.

If You Think The US Wants To Bring Democracy To Iran, Watch What They're Currently Doing To Iraq

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2211 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The US is using economic levers—like control of Iraq’s oil revenue—to pressure Iraqi political choices, for example by pushing against Nouri al‑Maliki’s bid for prime minister.
  2. America often reshapes governments and economies to keep friendly rulers in power, so its talk of bringing democracy can mask direct control and interference.
  3. Policy toward Iran looks aimed at weakening or fragmenting the country to maintain dominance rather than promoting democracy, with some strategists even advocating balkanization.

Googoosh: Iran’s Freedom Is Within Reach

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 445 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The 1979 Islamic Revolution replaced the old order with a theocratic regime that repressed culture and sharply curtailed women’s rights, silencing prominent artists.
  2. Many people lived through bans, war, and exile; some left to reclaim their voices but remained deeply attached to their homeland.
  3. After decades of authoritarian rule and decline, the regime now seems vulnerable and a secular, democratic future for Iran feels within reach.

She Was Nearly Recruited Into Epstein’s World—by Her Closest Friend. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 403 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
📰 News Middle East
  1. A Ukrainian actress narrowly escaped being recruited into Jeffrey Epstein’s network by a close friend, showing how peer pressure and enablers helped his operation spread across countries.
  2. The war with Iran is reshaping geopolitics and markets — from an unprecedented joint oil release and disrupted shipping to high military costs and targeting mistakes — while some see the crisis creating space for new diplomatic deals like an Abraham Accords 2.0.
  3. Conservative politics are fracturing in unexpected ways: MAGA may be less split on Iran than media claim, Texas conservatives sometimes oppose formal school prayer, and the GOP faces internal tensions over issues like anti‑Muslim sentiment and politically driven vaccine decisions.

How Close Is Israel to Maximum Escalation?

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 854 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Iranian strikes are doing more unacknowledged damage because interceptors and targeting radars are being depleted, so smaller missile and drone salvos are having bigger effects.
  2. Israel appears willing to use extreme measures to survive, including the feared “Samson Option” as a last resort, and U.S. policy is tightly entangled with those Israeli decisions.
  3. The conflict’s duration is uncertain: Iran signals readiness for a long fight while Israel may be running short on time and reluctant to accept a ceasefire until the Iranian threat is fully removed.

This Is How the Islamic Republic Falls

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1423 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. The U.S. and Israeli air strikes hit Iran’s infrastructure and were portrayed as a move to open a better future for the Iranian people.
  2. The strikes came after weeks of diplomacy, naval buildup, and Western frustration that threats and demands hadn’t changed Iran’s behavior.
  3. The Islamic Republic doesn’t always respond like a rational state; its revolutionary ideology is weakening its hold on the population and eroding its domestic power.

We Deserve Better War Propaganda

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1909 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Middle East
  1. Officials and tabloid media are pushing obvious, unverified claims about Iran to justify hostility, often relying on anonymous sources and weak evidence.
  2. The propaganda is so crude it shows leaders don’t care about winning public consent, yet they’re still preparing for a large and dangerous war despite broad opposition.
  3. This loss of credible justification suggests the empire is growing more openly tyrannical and strengthens the case for popular resistance and systemic change.