The hottest Policy Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

A benefit greater yet

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economics Population Government spending Healthcare Policy Analysis
  1. Optimal population subsidies can differ greatly based on the discount rate assumption, with the model showing notable variations between a 5% and a 7% discount rate.
  2. There's evidence of a non-linear relationship between fertility rates and income, with high-income groups having more children in some cases, impacting population growth predictions.
  3. The marginal benefit of a birth is suggested to increase rapidly with population growth and discounts rates, leading to implications concerning government spending priorities and possible optimization opportunities.

Postcards from a Train, Part Two

Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf • 3 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Social Issues Government programs Cultural observations
  1. Homelessness is visibly growing in places like Eugene, Oregon. Many people are struggling with addiction, making the urban areas feel unsafe.
  2. The Section Eight housing program provides help but also limits people's ability to improve their income. This setup keeps many people in a cycle of poverty.
  3. During the train journey, the landscape reflected the struggles of many towns, showing a lack of hope and job opportunities. There's a sense of despair that impacts people's lives across the country.

My $100,000 offer to UC Santa Cruz

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccination Public Debate Policy Analysis Misinformation University Policy
  1. There's a challenge to UC Santa Cruz about their vaccine policies, proposing a debate where students decide the outcome.
  2. If the university's vaccine policy is better than the challenger's, they get $100,000; if not, UC Santa Cruz pays that amount to another organization.
  3. The university recently limited its use of social media to reduce misinformation, highlighting differing views on what misinformation really is.

New paper shows COVID boosters increased mortality in nursing home residents. The effect was highly statistically significant after 4 weeks.

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Epidemiology Policy Analysis Statistical Analysis
  1. COVID boosters seem to increase death rates in nursing home residents, especially after four weeks. This suggests the boosters might be doing more harm than good.
  2. Initial vaccinations showed a tiny benefit, but it quickly faded and was not strong enough to justify the ongoing use of vaccines in nursing homes.
  3. Vaccinating nursing home staff appeared to negatively affect residents, leading to higher deaths. This data raises serious concerns about the overall effectiveness of these vaccines.

The Cost of Couple Equity

Logos and Liberty • 1 HN point • 09 Jul 24
🚌 Education Gender Studies Career development Family Dynamics Work-life balance Policy Analysis
  1. The earnings gap between men and women often results from 'couple inequity' caused by demanding work environments that are incompatible with caregiving responsibilities.
  2. Couples face difficult tradeoffs between equity and financial security due to the structure of workplaces, like 'greedy work' and 'up or out' promotion policies.
  3. Solutions to reduce the gender earnings gap include increasing flexibility in jobs, lessening the cost of childcare, and changing societal norms around gender roles and caregiving responsibilities.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Insurers are trying to buy good will for the inequalities they help create. See how.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 59 implied HN points • 27 Jul 21
🏥 Health Politics Health Equity Insurance Issues Policy Analysis
  1. Big health insurers are focusing on profits instead of addressing health inequalities. They're making large profits while many people suffer from inadequate healthcare.
  2. Insurers are trying to improve their image by claiming to support health equity, but they're not investing enough to make a real difference. Their top executives are earning much more than what’s being spent on addressing health issues.
  3. High-deductible insurance plans make healthcare unaffordable for many, leading to more people being underinsured, especially among communities of color. This situation is creating more financial stress and worsening health outcomes for those affected.

Commentator

Castalia • 19 implied HN points • 12 Dec 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Censorship Policy Analysis
  1. The 'Twitter Files' reveal that Twitter had a history of suppressing free speech for political reasons. This manipulation may have influenced public conversations and elections.
  2. Involuntary hospitalization for the mentally ill is a complex issue. While it aims to address untreated mental illness in cities, it raises concerns about civil rights and the effectiveness of care.
  3. Ron DeSantis is gaining popularity as a Republican candidate by focusing on culture wars and local issues. His approach contrasts with Trump, who still has significant control within the party.

Was the Race to Replace George Santos a Bellwether?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 6 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Democratic Party Joe Biden Policy Analysis
  1. Democrat Tom Suozzi won the race to replace George Santos comfortably, surprising some with the margin of victory.
  2. The outcome of one special election in February may not accurately predict broader political trends or implications.
  3. The analysis and speculation surrounding Suozzi's victory in the House race should be approached with caution due to the unique circumstances of the election.

Seeing Like a Party

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Political Behavior Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Members of Congress usually focus on three main goals: getting re-elected, gaining power, and making good laws. Often, re-election is the top priority because it allows them to achieve the other two.
  2. Political parties can sometimes take risks by supporting policies that might hurt them in the short term. Unlike individual members, parties can survive losses and hope to regain power later, which may lead them to make different decisions.
  3. There's a trend in how people view party success, with a focus mainly on winning elections. This mindset ignores the importance of long-term policy goals, which can be more beneficial for the party's future.

Democracy of evidence

Hypertext • 0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Policy Analysis Econometrics Social Sciences Public Policy
  1. Econometrics helps to reveal truths in small-scale matters, but applying them to large societal issues requires many assumptions. Democratizing knowledge generation can be a social game-changer by putting economic tools in the hands of more people.
  2. Academics often focus on big questions about human nature, but the implementation of policies by governmental and social organizations could benefit from more hands-on and practical application of econometric tools to measure the impact of these policies.
  3. Government and social institutions should embrace a more incremental approach, like carpenters, making gradual improvements as opposed to sweeping changes. There's potential for significant social change when institutions start questioning and measuring the effectiveness of their own operations.

On legislative volume

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 12 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Congress Political trends Policy Analysis
  1. Most laws in Congress are passed after October 1, with only about 16% being approved before that date. This shows that lawmakers need time to debate and finalize legislation.
  2. There is a clear link between the amount of legislation passed before and after October 1. More laws passed early often leads to more laws passed later, mainly because of the nature of the legislation being discussed.
  3. The 112th Congress didn't pass a huge number of laws, but its output before October 1 was similar to previous divided Congresses. This raises questions about what factors really influence legislative productivity.

#15 - Altman, Jinping, Biden, and O

Navigating AI Risks • 0 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Governance Government regulations Policy Analysis Global Cooperation
  1. OpenAI faced turmoil with CEO Sam Altman's firing, highlighting governance challenges and lack of transparency
  2. China is already regulating AI with new laws, ethics reviews, and safety measures to manage AI risks
  3. The White House tightened AI oversight with an executive order requiring companies to share safety test results with the government

Options and Taxes: Is a "Facebook" tax next?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Feb 12
💰 Finance Taxation Corporate Finance Options trading Valuation Policy Analysis
  1. Mark Zuckerberg's large option exercise will lead to a huge tax bill for him, while Facebook benefits from a big tax deduction. This raises questions about how stock options are taxed.
  2. There's a disconnect between accounting and tax rules regarding options, leading to successful companies like Facebook getting bigger tax breaks than less successful ones like Cisco.
  3. Policymakers might consider changing tax laws to align with accounting rules, but that could create complexities for employees dealing with tax on unrealized options.