The hottest Policy Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

HWFO Reading List, February 2024

Handwaving Freakoutery • 237 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The foundation of SETI uses the Drake Equation to estimate the existence of extraterrestrial life, similar to how an estimate could be made for the likelihood of someone shooting Trump.
  2. James Hankins' anti-diversity statement may signal shifts in ideologies and academic environments.
  3. Studies on topics such as car seat laws affecting fertility rates and brain structures defining self-perception shed light on various intriguing scientific findings.

The National Academy of Medicine is only inducting COVID commenters who were incorrect

Vinay Prasad's Observations and Thoughts • 103 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The National Academy of Medicine is mostly recognizing people who gave wrong advice about COVID-19. It's surprising that many who commented about COVID-19 and were inducted were incorrect.
  2. There seems to be a focus on honoring those who were strongly in favor of measures like masking and lockdowns. This suggests a loyalty to a specific viewpoint rather than evaluating based on facts or merit.
  3. This trend can hurt public trust in health institutions. If organizations are driven by ideology instead of balanced evidence, it makes people skeptical about their recommendations.

Postmortem 2024

Skeptic • 95 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The 2024 election saw Trump winning decisively, and it's important to note that it wasn't just about Harris losing, but Trump running a strong campaign.
  2. Harris should have better addressed key issues like crime, economics, and immigration and connected more with voters by engaging in important discussions on platforms like podcasts.
  3. Looking ahead, while many may feel upset about the results, it's crucial to remain optimistic about the future and know that political power can shift back to Democrats in upcoming elections.

No, men’s views on policy haven’t really changed

Of Boys and Men • 99 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Men's views on key issues have not changed much in the past two years. They generally care about the same topics as women.
  2. The gender gap in policy preferences is actually getting smaller. Men and women are aligning more closely on what they consider important.
  3. Even when they see issues like voting rights as important, men and women might have different reasons for why they care, reflecting broader cultural divisions rather than just policy differences.

CDC Director Is Exhibit A That 'Experts' Have Learned Nothing From COVID

Unmasked • 73 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The CDC made mistakes in managing COVID-19, like failing to roll out tests properly and giving confusing mask advice. This led to a lot of public criticism.
  2. Their guidance on masks changed too many times without strong evidence to support the changes. They often relied on poor studies that were quickly disproven.
  3. Despite the backlash and criticism, the CDC didn't seem to learn from their mistakes or adjust their approach effectively during the pandemic.
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Covid's most dangerous moment

Unreported Truths • 86 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. In March 2020, WHO suggested that health authorities might need to remove infected people from their homes to control Covid spread. This was a controversial idea, especially considering the risks involved.
  2. At that time, public health officials were in a state of panic, even when it was clear that Covid posed a low risk to most healthy adults. This led to extreme measures that many thought were unnecessary.
  3. If things had been worse, the proposals for quarantining families could have gained more traction. It's important to learn from this history to prevent similar approaches in the future.

Inaccurate Study Claims More Masking Would Have Stopped COVID

Unmasked • 79 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. There is no solid evidence showing that wearing masks helps stop the spread of respiratory viruses like COVID-19. Many studies from before 2020 found that masks are not effective.
  2. Despite the lack of evidence, some people continue to insist that more masking would have made a difference during the pandemic.
  3. It's important to recognize that a lot of the information about masks has been based on political beliefs rather than scientific facts.

Sex, Violence, and Cognitive Prisons

Journal of Free Black Thought • 21 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Science should focus on facts without being influenced by personal beliefs or ideologies. Keeping scientific information objective helps everyone understand issues better and make informed decisions.
  2. Gender and biological sex are different, and confusing them can lead to misunderstandings in research. It's important to clarify these terms for clearer communication and accurate results.
  3. Addressing concerns around safety and fear should consider human nature and perceptions. Understanding the reasons behind fear can lead to more effective solutions rather than relying on ideological perspectives.

Giving Thanks for Price Theory, 2025 Edition

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
💼 Business Policy Analysis
  1. Costs go beyond just money. When making decisions, we should think about what we're giving up, like time or effort, not just the price tag.
  2. Efficiency is an important idea in economics. It helps us compare how resources are used, but we should recognize that it's not always about keeping things the same; sometimes we need to adapt to make improvements.
  3. Profits and losses help guide businesses. Profits show what's valued by people, while losses indicate when something isn't working well, ensuring resources are used effectively.

Policy analysis in the wild

Hypertext • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Open societies are complex due to layers of values, norms, and rules, leading to challenges in predicting policy effects
  2. Unpredictability in open societies arises from complexity and reflexivity, showcasing the need for adaptive policy approaches
  3. Policy analysts can navigate complexity by focusing on the adjacent possible, hindering hindrances, and designing rules to address social challenges

The state of China's small and micro companies

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💼 Business Policy Analysis
  1. Small and micro businesses are crucial for China's economy, providing services and jobs to many people. They help support bigger companies and industries in different areas.
  2. These businesses employ around 400 million people, making them essential for social stability. The livelihoods of many families depend on their success.
  3. Small and micro businesses face challenges like weak demand and high operating costs. They need better financial support and policies to thrive and stimulate the economy.

Interested in health care? This is what you should be reading.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 199 implied HN points • 13 May 22
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Healthcare in the U.S. can be very expensive, even for people who have insurance. Many are struggling to pay out-of-pocket costs and are skipping necessary doctor visits or medications.
  2. People often turn to GoFundMe pages to raise money for their medical expenses. Sadly, those who are most likely to succeed in this fundraising are usually the privileged ones, making the problem worse for those in need.
  3. There are serious flaws in Medicare's prescription drug coverage, leading to high costs for many older Americans. Some can face over $10,000 a year on medications, which highlights the need for better healthcare solutions.

The best reason to hate international aid

Unreported Truths • 49 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. International aid can create a dependency that hurts the receiving countries more than it helps. Instead of promoting self-sufficiency, it often makes governments rely on outside support.
  2. Foreign aid often leads to corruption, where local leaders treat it as an easy resource to exploit for their own gain. This can divert attention from genuine development efforts.
  3. Countries that focus on growing their own economies, like China, often do better than those that rely heavily on foreign aid. Sustainable development is more effective when it comes from within, rather than depending on help from others.

An unforced error for Donald Trump

Unreported Truths • 51 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. It's important to show empathy and support for the families affected by tragedies, especially immediately after such events. Instead of discussing political topics, leaders should focus on comforting those in grief.
  2. Having a diverse workforce in fields like aviation is important, but safety and competency should always come first. Standards should not be lowered just to meet diversity goals.
  3. Making political comments during sensitive times can come off as insensitive. It's better to take a respectful approach than to push a political agenda when people's lives have been lost.

June 16, 2025

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. A man named Vance Boelter targeted politicians, leading to serious charges against him. The motive behind his actions is still unclear, but he planned the attacks for a long time.
  2. Some political figures reacted insensitively to the tragedy, joking or making false claims, which upset many people. Senator Klobuchar highlighted the human impact of the violence.
  3. Trump's participation in the G7 meeting raised questions about his health and capability as a leader. His team is also focusing on business ventures, like a new mobile phone service, while changes in policy seem chaotic.

Tulsi Gabbard's DNI Nomination

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 55 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Tulsi Gabbard is a complex candidate for the DNI position. She has stood against U.S. wars, but has also supported traditional national security policies.
  2. Her support for controversial actions, like military strikes and strong ties to certain political groups, raises concerns among critics.
  3. Despite mixed opinions, some believe Gabbard could be the lesser evil compared to other potential candidates, making her confirmation potentially more favorable.

Commentator

Castalia • 119 implied HN points • 22 Jul 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Naive environmentalism can lead to real-world problems. For example, Sri Lanka faced a crisis partly due to harmful green policies pushed by outside influences.
  2. The debate between the 'wokes' and 'anti-wokes' highlights serious issues in society. While there are valid points on both sides, there's a risk of getting lost in arguments instead of addressing real problems.
  3. The Guantánamo Bay prison remains a troubling subject. Despite efforts to close it, there hasn't been much progress, showing the strong grip of the security state and a lack of national reflection on past actions.

Retrospective: Trump's Executive Order on Males in Women's Sports

House of Strauss • 38 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Trump's recent order restricts biological males from competing in women's sports, which has sparked varying reactions, especially from sports media. It shows a shift in the conversation around gender and sports.
  2. There seems to be a growing consensus among the public against the inclusion of trans women in women's sports, with polls indicating strong support for this stance.
  3. Some individuals feel uncomfortable joining activist movements, even if they agree with the cause, indicating a hesitance to publicly associate with political movements.

Whither the Democrats?

KERFUFFLE • 51 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The Republican Party is firmly under Trump's control, with no opposition left inside the party. This makes it hard to predict where the party is headed, as Trump often changes direction.
  2. The Democratic Party lacks a clear leader or owner, making it complicated to assess its future. Many different groups have a stake in the party, but none can steer it effectively.
  3. Some people believe the Democrats have become a liability and might be better off switching to the Republicans, where they see more potential for success.

Can Community Navigators Increase Access to Unemployment Insurance?

Can We Still Govern? • 48 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Many people who qualify for unemployment benefits don't get them because applying can be really hard and confusing. Community navigators can help make this process easier for those who are struggling.
  2. Research in Maine found that community navigator programs made it more likely for people to apply for and receive unemployment benefits faster. These navigators also helped reduce stress for applicants.
  3. While community navigators can improve access, they can't solve all the problems. The unemployment system still needs more funding and better rules to work effectively for everyone.

Tsunami invariant

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
🔬 Science Policy Analysis
  1. This post explores how factors like remittances, capital stocks, and immigrant effects on productivity impact the population trajectory under open borders.
  2. The analysis shows that the case for open borders remains robust even with substantial negative impacts on productivity, suggesting significant population growth under various scenarios.
  3. Limitations of the model include the lack of consideration for certain effects on total factor productivity in origin countries and the absence of estimates on global welfare and utility changes due to migration.

The point of politics

Sex and the State • 29 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Winning elections is the most important goal for political parties. If they don't win, they can't implement their policies.
  2. When swing voters are misinformed on issues, sometimes it's better for politicians to change the conversation back to popular topics.
  3. Policies regarding gender and rights can sometimes hurt a party if voters aren't educated about them, so they should be careful in how they communicate these issues.

Term time

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 20 Nov 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Politicians prioritize short-term gains for re-election over long-term investments due to the nature of regular elections.
  2. The optimal rate of investment for politicians is influenced by factors like capital elasticity and depreciation rates.
  3. Increasing political term lengths from 5 to 7 years could potentially boost real incomes significantly over a long timeframe, showing the impact of term lengths on economic outcomes.

Edition 27: Secure by Design is important, but requires a different kind of industry effort to achieve it

Boring AppSec • 38 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Policy Analysis
  1. The Secure by Design initiative aims to improve software security, but it's unclear how effective it will actually be. Companies might just treat it as another compliance standard without real change.
  2. CISA's approach mixes good ideas with vague guidelines, making it hard for security teams to use effectively. This can lead to companies focusing on basic compliance instead of deeper security improvements.
  3. Awareness initiatives can be helpful, especially for new issues in cybersecurity, but they often become outdated. What worked in the past, like OWASP Top 10, may not be useful for current complex security challenges.

A benefit greater yet

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 22
💰 Finance Policy Analysis
  1. Optimal population subsidies can differ greatly based on the discount rate assumption, with the model showing notable variations between a 5% and a 7% discount rate.
  2. There's evidence of a non-linear relationship between fertility rates and income, with high-income groups having more children in some cases, impacting population growth predictions.
  3. The marginal benefit of a birth is suggested to increase rapidly with population growth and discounts rates, leading to implications concerning government spending priorities and possible optimization opportunities.

Will Elon's Team of Elite Math Twinks Tell Him That You Can't Close a $1.8 Trillion Budget Gap By Eliminating a $0.04 Trillion Agency?

I Might Be Wrong • 25 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Elon Musk's team is trying to find ways to cut a massive budget deficit, but suggestions like eliminating a small agency won't make a real difference.
  2. Young and inexperienced teams can bring fresh ideas, but they might also lack the courage to challenge big figures when things don't add up.
  3. Real budget solutions will likely involve tough decisions like tax increases or cuts to popular programs, which are often avoided in flashy discussions.

Correction on Measure FF

The Discourse Lounge • 37 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. There was a visual mistake regarding how the blue color lines were shown, which made it hard to read. It's important to have clear visuals in reports.
  2. Measure FF is expected to keep Berkeley's road quality at a score of 57 without any further city council changes. This means it's important to pay attention to government actions that could affect road conditions.
  3. Measure EE will lower the road quality score from 57 to 54 since it only funds overdue road repairs and not new ones. This shows that funding decisions can have a big impact on infrastructure.

Congestion Pricing: Because Nothing Says ‘New York’ Like Paying More to Get Less

Gad’s Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Congestion pricing in New York is aimed at reducing traffic in the city center, but it has also led to increased traffic in other areas. This means the problem of congestion might just be moving around rather than getting solved.
  2. Not all routes are affected the same way. While some key entry points into the city have traffic improvements, local streets used for everyday travel show little to no change, which raises questions about the overall effectiveness of the plan.
  3. Public support for congestion pricing varies greatly and people are concerned about fairness and how the revenue will be used. Making sure to communicate how the money is spent and improving transit options could help gain more acceptance from the public.

Are We in a Time Loop?

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 26 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Many people feel like we're caught in a cycle where history seems to repeat itself, especially when it comes to politics. This sense of déjà vu makes it feel like we're experiencing similar patterns over time.
  2. There's a growing frustration with mainstream political systems, leading some individuals to resort to extreme options, even supporting controversial figures like Trump. This shows how deep the anger and disillusionment run.
  3. Economic inequality and the decline of unions have led to a lot of social unrest. Many people feel powerless, which contributes to the rise of populism and support for figures who promise drastic changes.

The Cost of Couple Equity

Logos and Liberty • 1 HN point • 09 Jul 24
🚌 Education Policy Analysis
  1. The earnings gap between men and women often results from 'couple inequity' caused by demanding work environments that are incompatible with caregiving responsibilities.
  2. Couples face difficult tradeoffs between equity and financial security due to the structure of workplaces, like 'greedy work' and 'up or out' promotion policies.
  3. Solutions to reduce the gender earnings gap include increasing flexibility in jobs, lessening the cost of childcare, and changing societal norms around gender roles and caregiving responsibilities.

Is Epstein Finally the Thing?

I Might Be Wrong • 5 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Trump's political survival is puzzling, as he often bounces back from scandals that seem damaging. It's like he defies the odds and keeps moving on.
  2. Right now, people are really focusing on the Epstein issue, and it might be something that actually affects Trump's support. Even his own base is starting to show some discontent.
  3. For the first time, it feels like there might be real consequences for Trump due to his connection to Epstein. This could be the thing that finally changes the game.

Pfizer's secret documents reveal that their COVID vaccine actually made you 8.7% more likely to get COVID

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Pfizer's documents suggest that the COVID vaccine may have actually increased the chance of getting COVID by 8.7%.
  2. The data showed that vaccinated individuals were less likely to develop N-antibodies, which means they might have had more infections than those who weren't vaccinated.
  3. There are serious concerns about the effectiveness of the vaccine, and some people believe it may have contributed to a rise in COVID deaths after it was rolled out.

Economics still matters for policy

Economic Forces • 14 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Prices show us what's scarce and push us to change our behaviors. They aren't just random numbers—they have meaning.
  2. When something gets more expensive, people usually try to find a cheaper alternative. Higher costs lead to less demand.
  3. Every choice we make comes with trade-offs. If we spend on one thing, we might have to give up something else.

Chaos kills coordination

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Chaos in policies can hurt the economy by making it hard to predict what will happen next. This uncertainty stops businesses from wanting to invest money.
  2. When prices change unpredictably, they become less helpful as signals for making decisions. This means people may hold off on projects that could benefit the economy.
  3. A stable set of rules is important for economic growth. Even if policies aren't perfect, having clear and consistent ones helps businesses and workers plan for the future.

Official New Zealand vaccine safety analysis: Nothing to be concerned about

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The New Zealand vaccine safety report found only a few side effects like anaphylaxis and myocarditis, suggesting overall safety. Most people won’t face serious issues from these side effects.
  2. The report says there's no strong link between the vaccine and more severe problems like thrombosis. The experts believe incidents reported by embalmers are likely misunderstandings.
  3. They claim that elderly people are mostly safe from serious side effects after vaccination. Some deaths after vaccination were labeled as coincidences by the experts.

Insurers are trying to buy good will for the inequalities they help create. See how.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 59 implied HN points • 27 Jul 21
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Big health insurers are focusing on profits instead of addressing health inequalities. They're making large profits while many people suffer from inadequate healthcare.
  2. Insurers are trying to improve their image by claiming to support health equity, but they're not investing enough to make a real difference. Their top executives are earning much more than what’s being spent on addressing health issues.
  3. High-deductible insurance plans make healthcare unaffordable for many, leading to more people being underinsured, especially among communities of color. This situation is creating more financial stress and worsening health outcomes for those affected.

Commentator

Castalia • 19 implied HN points • 12 Dec 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The 'Twitter Files' reveal that Twitter had a history of suppressing free speech for political reasons. This manipulation may have influenced public conversations and elections.
  2. Involuntary hospitalization for the mentally ill is a complex issue. While it aims to address untreated mental illness in cities, it raises concerns about civil rights and the effectiveness of care.
  3. Ron DeSantis is gaining popularity as a Republican candidate by focusing on culture wars and local issues. His approach contrasts with Trump, who still has significant control within the party.

Overthinking Transportation Funding Reform & Policy: Steelmanning Reauthorization II(a)

Exasperated Infrastructures • 12 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Reading transportation bills can be tricky because they are full of legal jargon. Most of the text isn't that important, so focus on the key sections that really change policies.
  2. Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) play a crucial role in transportation planning. They help ensure local needs are considered when deciding how to spend federal money.
  3. Transportation laws evolve over time, reflecting changes in society and policies. It's important to stay updated on these changes to understand how they affect public transportation and infrastructure.