The hottest Political Behavior Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Pervy Voters

Magic + Loss • 516 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Some voters make choices just to be rebellious, not because they truly believe in a candidate or party. They might want to shock people or go against the norm.
  2. Voting is usually about practical interests, like money or personal benefits, rather than just trying to be edgy or nonconformist.
  3. Spite can drive people to vote against their own values or interests, which can have serious consequences for democracy.

The TACO trade meets the fog of war

Silver Bulletin • 618 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Counting on a leader to always chicken out is a risky strategy. When someone usually faces few consequences, they’re more likely to take bold or reckless actions.
  2. Markets don’t act like a single rational player, so the idea that market panic will reliably force policy reversals (the “Trump put”) is unstable. Market behavior can be chaotic, uncoordinated, and sometimes escalate rather than deter.
  3. War in the Middle East is a multilateral fog-of-war problem with many actors who can change the dynamics. That makes outcomes, like oil shocks or unintended escalation, much harder to predict and potentially irreversible.

Wait Til Daddy Gets Home: America's Sad, Craven, Masochistic Relationship with the Republican Party

Welcome to Garbagetown • 6904 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. The media often ignores the serious flaws and mistakes of conservatives while overemphasizing minor issues with liberals. This creates a skewed perception of political reality.
  2. Many Americans seem to have a troubling attachment to authoritarian figures, viewing them as 'cool dads' who can do no wrong, while they criticize more nurturing approaches as weak or annoying.
  3. There's a sense of apathy about political outcomes, as some people feel accepting negative leadership might be easier than engaging in the hard work of democratic participation and accountability.

Why You Need to Learn about Trivers' Theory of Self-Deception

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1560 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🔬 Science Political Behavior
  1. Trivers' theory of self-deception is a fundamental framework for understanding politics and social life, and it changes how we interpret people's statements and actions.
  2. Grifting and sincere belief can be complementary, not opposites—people can genuinely hold an idea while also acting in ways that benefit them.
  3. Asking whether someone "really believes" something or is "grifting" is often too simplistic and needs more precise distinctions, because belief, motivation, and signaling frequently overlap.
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The Shape of Things to Come

Bulwark+ • 8628 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for the 2024 election, with strong support from the party base.
  2. Joe Biden's candidacy is characterized by hidden strengths, legislative accomplishments, and a focus on governance.
  3. There is a concern about a segment of society motivated by a desire for chaos, which could impact the political landscape.

GOP Kills Border Deal They Asked For & Trump's Plans for the Environment Are Truly Scary

kareem • 5916 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Republicans rejected a bipartisan border deal they previously demanded, showing political gamesmanship over genuine compromise.
  2. Mandating parental consent for Black history month education in Florida schools showcases needless government interference in education.
  3. Trump's proposed extreme anti-environment plans for a second term are described as horrific, showcasing a disregard for public health and safety.

Links For January 2025

Astral Codex Ten • 15898 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Running for Congress can be really tough. You often spend a lot of your own money and have to pause your job for a long time.
  2. The debate around AI's progress is heating up. Some people worry that if AI makes a big breakthrough but not everything it was supposed to, it could lead to misunderstandings about its true capabilities.
  3. There's a new dating site idea that matches people based on their chats with an AI helper. It's still in the early stages, but it's an interesting concept.

ACX Survey Results 2025

Astral Codex Ten • 14591 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. The survey showed that people's attitudes about Donald Trump have changed positively, with his favorability ratings increasing over time.
  2. About 4.5% of participants reported experiencing Long COVID, and while new cases are appearing, many seem to improve over time.
  3. Most respondents prefer older architecture over modern styles, and they tend to support softer approaches to punishment for minor crimes like shoplifting.

Big Mommy is Not Coming to Save Us

Freddie deBoer • 15408 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. People like Donald Trump, and no amount of media criticism seems to hurt his popularity. Many voters support him despite knowing his flaws.
  2. Democrats often struggle to connect with voters because they don't have a clear message or identity. They need to focus on issues that matter to everyday people.
  3. Expecting that a higher authority will correct wrongs in politics is unrealistic. Voters are looking for practical solutions, not just complaints about Trump.

2024: Frail vs. Flawed

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Joe Biden showed weaknesses during a debate but seemed fine the next day, leading to questions about his performance. This highlights concerns about the mental fitness of leaders.
  2. Voters are likely to choose between candidates who have their own flaws, no matter how bad they might be. People seem to support their sides regardless of the issues.
  3. The upcoming election seems set to be very competitive and messy, with both candidates having traits that many find concerning. It's shaping up to be a tough race.

Political Psychology Links, 1/14/2026

In My Tribe • 258 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Smarter people tend to be more socially liberal, partly because they are more patient and better at perspective-taking, and partly because they can make a cognitive error by not seeing how policies affect different groups unevenly.
  2. When problems are complex and uncertain, people are more likely to lean on tribal cues and motivated reasoning, which makes it easier to convince themselves of what they want to be true.
  3. Many people have a deep need to matter and try to justify their self-obsession by imagining themselves as important, and trying to satisfy that need through politics is usually not a good solution.

Both Democrats and Republicans can pass the Ideological Turing Test

Experimental History • 11606 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Democrats and Republicans misunderstand each other, but both sides can convincingly mimic each other's views. This shows they actually have a better grasp of each other's beliefs than they think.
  2. In a study, both parties struggled to differentiate between real and fake statements from their opponents, suggesting they might not truly know the depth of each other's perspectives.
  3. The findings imply that political disagreements might be REAL differences, not just simple misunderstandings, challenging the idea that better communication could solve everything.

Conservatives are dumb and lonely

Sex and the State • 39 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Research links lower measured intelligence and lower cognitive flexibility with higher social conservatism, with less cognitive comfort in uncertainty leading people to prefer rigid rules and resist rapid social change.
  2. Chronic loneliness, trauma, and poverty erode cognitive complexity and make people more vulnerable to bigotry, authoritarianism, and conspiracy thinking, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.
  3. Being less intelligent isn’t a moral failing, and practical solutions focus on reducing loneliness and strengthening social and family ties so people become more open to complex ideas and evidence-based policies.

The Trump "Tell"

Phillips’s Newsletter • 173 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. A "tell" is an unconscious physical or behavioral cue people repeat that reveals their true position or intentions.
  2. Donald Trump has a consistent, discernible tell that indicates when an issue doesn't matter to him.
  3. Noticing that tell can be used to predict real-world actions, such as his likely stance toward Putin or cuts to aid for Ukraine.

Magoon's Model of Radical Movements

In My Tribe • 425 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. A mentally troubled person can become a radical ideologue through a process called the psychological funnel. This means personal issues can lead someone to extreme beliefs.
  2. Radical movements have different players or roles that work together as a team. Understanding these roles helps clarify how these movements operate.
  3. When radical ideologies gain power, they often clash with reality, leading to their failure and collapse. This shows the risks of extreme ideas in practical situations.

The "Ten Years Behind" Theory

I Might Be Wrong • 7 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Political shifts tend to echo across parties: the dramatic changes that hit one side often show up in the other about ten years later.
  2. The breakup of a shared news culture and the rise of partisan media and talk radio made it easy for more extreme, conspiratorial ideas to spread and become mainstream within a party.
  3. You can’t always see these changes in real time, but stepping back shows a clear cycle driven by new media and generational shifts that move political norms over time.

Claude found me an error in the ANES

Never Met a Science • 72 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. An AI code assistant detected a subtle data error in a major survey where one variable was overwritten, preventing a misleading analysis result.
  2. AI tools are highly useful for routine data processing and quality control, catching problems automatically that researchers might otherwise miss.
  3. AI works best when given specific, domain-relevant examples or code, because vague checks can produce false positives or flag legitimate, documented values as errors.

Game Theory For Michigan Muslims

Astral Codex Ten • 4404 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Sometimes people vote for a worse candidate because they want to send a message to a better one. This creates a tricky situation in politics.
  2. Voting can involve strategy, where people's choices may not just reflect who they like best. They might choose based on tactics to influence future outcomes.
  3. In communities like Michigan's Muslim population, collective voting decisions can show how groups weigh risks versus rewards when choosing candidates. This highlights their unique political dynamics.

I have bad instincts. Listen to me.

Sex and the State • 32 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Making lots of mistakes can be an advantage because people who learn the hard way figure out step-by-step how to correct themselves and can teach that process to others.
  2. Societies need governments and centralized adjudication to prevent endless private revenge, since evolved impulses to punish don’t scale well in large, diverse groups.
  3. Admitting when we’re wrong and being willing to change our minds is essential for political coexistence. People often vote based on feeling liked more than policy, so empathy and forgiveness matter.

Psychopathy and low cognitive ability

Klement on Investing • 8 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
🔬 Science Political Behavior
  1. A large survey across eight countries found people with higher cognitive ability were generally more likely to take part in online political discussions.
  2. However, among people with lower cognitive ability, those with higher psychopathic traits were especially likely to participate. People with high psychopathy and low cognitive ability are overrepresented in online political debates.
  3. Social media and message boards often become toxic and are dominated by extreme, loud personalities, so when someone online triggers you it's often best to assume they fit that pattern and move on.

Yes, Kevin Hassett Would Be a Very Bed Fed Chair

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 453 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Kevin Hassett is seen as untrustworthy because he often promotes misleading or false information for personal gain. People believe he shouldn't be in a position of power like the Federal Reserve Chair.
  2. In the past, Hassett made bold claims about the stock market that turned out to be incorrect. This history makes many economists skeptical of his insights.
  3. Despite his controversial reputation, Hassett has continued to maintain a career in politics, which suggests that some influential people appreciate his willingness to say whatever suits their interests.

They Wanted to Own The Libs

OK Doomer • 514 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. MAGA supporters often act out of spite, making choices that hurt themselves just to feel superior to others. This behavior makes them miss opportunities for personal growth and betterment.
  2. Despite facing numerous struggles, MAGA supporters continue to blame others for their problems instead of recognizing the impact of their own choices. This consistent self-pity does not lead to meaningful change.
  3. The desire to 'own the libs' can blind MAGA supporters to their own interests, making them support policies that ultimately hurt themselves while trying to hurt their perceived enemies.

When power is very personal (part 1)

Brain Pizza • 1125 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Narcissism can be both good and bad for leaders. It helps them be confident and make big decisions, but it can also lead to corruption and poor ethics.
  2. Grandiose narcissism makes leaders more persuasive and able to handle crises, but it can also create instability and ethical issues in government.
  3. There's a difference between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. Grandiose narcissists are more outgoing and confident, while vulnerable ones are more sensitive and insecure.

Can MTG Be Trusted?

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 120 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Trust is difficult when it comes to someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene. People can change, but it's hard to forget their past actions.
  2. Once someone is deeply involved in a particular mindset or group, like MAGA, it can be tough for them to completely break free. They might fall back into old habits.
  3. Even if someone seems to be making positive changes, skepticism is important. It's not always clear if they will stick to their new path.

New Yorkers Aren’t Judging Eric Adams

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 760 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Many New Yorkers are not reacting strongly to Mayor Eric Adams' recent corruption indictment. Instead of judgment, there seems to be a sense of indifference or acceptance among residents.
  2. People in the community still show excitement and support for the mayor when they see him in public. Teenagers and locals are eager to take photos with him, showing a positive image despite the scandal.
  3. The situation reflects a broader attitude where some voters may overlook political scandals if they feel a personal connection to the leader. It shows how charisma can outweigh controversy for some constituents.

The Weak Strongman

Thinking about... • 731 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Trump's style of leadership can seem strong, but it's actually making America weaker on the world stage. His actions are damaging key government institutions and alliances.
  2. While many Americans fear Trump's behavior, he doesn’t inspire the same fear abroad. Instead, other countries see his actions as a chance to gain more power without concern for his threats.
  3. Trump's government strategy relies on chaos and destruction rather than solid policies. This creates a situation where adversaries like Russia and China can take advantage of America's declining strength.

The Mump Oligarchy -- A Glossary

Thinking about... • 740 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. The Mump regime combines the influence of wealthy individuals like Elon Musk and Donald Trump, who represent a powerful oligarchy. They control political and social narratives for their gain.
  2. Mumpers are people who support or submit to this regime, often ignoring their own governmental responsibilities. This leads to negative behavior like spreading misinformation and avoiding accountability.
  3. The society described as Mumptopia is one where technology and media dictate people's beliefs and values, creating a distracted and disillusioned population that is disconnected from real issues.

The Dark Truth About MAGA's Obsession with Epstein

OK Doomer • 248 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. MAGA supporters often prioritize their beliefs and virtue over the safety of their children. They sometimes would rather harm their own to protect their ideals.
  2. Despite the controversy surrounding Trump and Epstein, many MAGA fans won't abandon him. They already know the truth but focus more on political gain than morality.
  3. The release of the Epstein files may not change MAGA supporters’ views. It won’t make them more critical thinkers or compassionate; they might still cling to their beliefs and conspiracy theories.

Punishment and populism

Sex and the State • 18 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. People overestimate how effective punishment is because we punish extreme bad behavior and then see natural regression to the mean as proof that the punishment worked.
  2. Experts who track behavior find rewards are at least as effective as punishment, but that expert view clashes with common-sense beliefs and leaves a gap politicians can exploit by promising to “get tough.”
  3. Fear, scarcity, loneliness, and threat activate punitive, authoritarian instincts and reduce people’s ability to weigh complex evidence, so support for harsh punishment often comes from emotional strain rather than simple lack of intelligence.

What Happened?

Fake Noûs • 584 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Many people find Trump's character appealing, despite his controversial actions. They admire traits like honesty in his bluntness and a strong, dominant personality.
  2. Trump's supporters often view his behavior as a sign of strength and masculinity. This admiration can make them overlook his scandals and lies.
  3. Some voters feel emotionally connected to Trump, almost like he's a cult leader. They follow him not because of policies, but because they resonate with his boldness and confidence.

Sloth was not the right answer

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 625 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. People often let politics affect their emotions too much, which can lead to unhappiness and frustration. It's better to focus on deeper and more meaningful conversations.
  2. Many view slanted information in politics as normal, but this approach can prevent good ideas from spreading effectively. It's important to look for objective facts instead of just picking sides.
  3. The upcoming US presidential election will be influenced by factors such as immigration, inflation, and candidate popularity. Understanding these can help make sense of the election dynamics.

Zohran Mamdani's Victory Proves What We've Been Saying All Along

OK Doomer • 188 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for New York mayor, surprising many who thought he couldn't succeed. This victory shows that people might prefer real change over the usual political games.
  2. The old way of winning elections, which involves cozying up to wealthy donors and adopting conservative views, is failing. Mamdani's win proves that sticking to what voters actually want can lead to success.
  3. Mamdani's approach is refreshing compared to previous leaders who were often corrupt and pushed harmful policies. His victory signals a hope for more honest and progressive leadership.

Friederich Hayek and Will Rogers on the Democratic Party

David Friedman’s Substack • 350 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. The Democratic Party often acts more like a collection of individuals than a unified organization. This means that each member prioritizes their own goals, which can lead to conflicting actions and beliefs.
  2. Politicians, like Biden, may not shift their policies towards the center because it could risk their own elections and support. They often focus more on their personal objectives than the party's overall strategy.
  3. The behavior of political parties can reflect individual interests rather than a cohesive plan. This can result in decisions that don't necessarily align with making the party stronger or defeating opponents.

Hidden Brain and Evil Explain

Moral Understanding • 98 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Political beliefs are often driven by perceptions of threat and protecting different groups from harm.
  2. Misunderstandings about the views of political opponents can lead to false polarization and animosity.
  3. Having open conversations with people who have different political views is crucial for a healthy society and understanding each other's humanity.

The Loser Triad

Thinking about... • 304 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. When Trump loses, he has a pattern: he claims he actually won. This usually happens soon after the votes are counted.
  2. He often files lawsuits against the election results, sometimes even before the election is over.
  3. Trump might encourage violence around election day. If he declares victory early, it's a sign he likely lost.

Fascism begins in the home, yes it does

Disaffected Newsletter • 599 implied HN points • 03 Sep 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. Fascism can start in the home, especially when family dynamics include abuse and manipulation. What happens in a household can affect wider society.
  2. Certain harmful behaviors, like narcissism and emotional abuse, are found in both families and political leaders. They can shape how people act in public roles.
  3. When a leader attacks large groups of citizens and labels them negatively, it often shows authoritarian tendencies. This kind of behavior echoes the treatment found in abusive family situations.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: American Idiots

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Behavior
  1. There was a recent chaotic event in U.S. politics that hints at possible future issues under a second Trump administration. This involved key figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump arguing about a government funding bill.
  2. In the end, a deal was reached by some congressional leaders, but it showed how easily politicians can be swayed by people like Musk, even when they spread false information.
  3. Overall, the way politics is handled nowadays resembles a wrestling match more than a serious governing process, making it hard for voters to trust their leaders and their decisions.