The hottest Trade Relations Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

Trump starts to break things

Noahpinion • 74295 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Tariffs Trade Relations Political Analysis International relations
  1. Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico could raise prices for American consumers. These tariffs might hurt people's wallets and lead to higher costs for everyday goods.
  2. The tariffs may disrupt American manufacturers' supply chains, making it harder for them to compete. This could lower the production efficiency of U.S. companies that rely on imports from these countries.
  3. There is uncertainty about the impact of these tariffs on trade relations. If Trump keeps them in place, it could harm relationships with allies and create economic instability.

How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China

Noahpinion • 33118 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations National Security Political Analysis Elections
  1. Export controls on technology, especially semiconductors, are really important for keeping the U.S. ahead of China. If Trump stops these controls, it could mean he's not serious about standing up to Chinese power.
  2. There are doubts about Trump's commitment to manufacturing jobs, as his previous promises may not hold true. His tariffs might just be for show and could even hurt U.S. manufacturing instead of helping it.
  3. China is a serious threat to U.S. dominance, and the way Trump handles trade and technology policy will be key in determining the future relationship between the two countries.

Showdown in Londontown

Taipology • 19 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade Relations Economic strategy Foreign affairs
  1. The recent US-China trade talks in London focused less on tariffs and more on non-tariff issues, especially China's control over rare earth element exports. This is important because these materials are crucial for many American industries.
  2. China seems to be playing the long game in these negotiations, preferring to avoid direct conflict and maintain stability while still holding significant bargaining power with rare earths.
  3. Despite the talk of winners and losers in the trade talks, the outcome is still unclear. Both sides might have made concessions, but it's uncertain what those were, leaving a lot of speculation.

Is The Chip War Already Lost?

Doomberg • 5608 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade Relations Geopolitics Sanctions Technology Policy
  1. The U.S. has tightened sanctions on China, particularly in the semiconductor industry, to weaken its tech growth. This move aims to limit China's access to advanced chip manufacturing technology.
  2. In response, China has imposed its own export restrictions, targeting materials critical for the tech industry in the U.S. This indicates that both countries are in an escalating trade war.
  3. China's efforts to develop its own semiconductor capabilities are showing significant progress, raising concerns about its growing self-sufficiency in this critical industry.

Niall Ferguson: J.D. Vance Picked a Fight in Germany. Will He Get One in China?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 3389 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political Commentary International relations Trade Relations Elections
  1. J.D. Vance is taking a bold approach by challenging foreign powers, notably at the Munich Security Conference. This kind of confrontation could signal a shift in U.S. foreign policy.
  2. America's previous attempts to provoke negotiations with other countries often went unanswered. Historically, many nations haven't reacted strongly, showing a lack of willingness to engage.
  3. The current administration seems to be looking for conflicts to assert its stance on the global stage. This strategy might change how the U.S. is perceived internationally.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

America's Self-Defeating Chip War on China

Nonzero Newsletter • 271 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Tech Policy Trade Relations National Security
  1. The US is limiting chip imports from China, which could create tension leading to potential conflict in Taiwan.
  2. There hasn't been much discussion about the risks of this chip war among US foreign policy experts.
  3. A Chinese AI model called DeepSeek r1 is gaining attention and showing that the US's strategy against Chinese tech might have serious flaws.

Rare Earth and China

TP’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🌐 International Trade Relations Resource Management Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. China dominates the rare earth market, producing around 94% of these materials used in magnets. They are also increasing their control over the entire supply chain.
  2. China has been restricting exports of rare earth materials, especially higher-value products like magnets, likely to strengthen their manufacturing capabilities and hurt foreign competitors.
  3. Research and patents on rare earth technology are concentrated in China, meaning they have the expertise needed to produce high-quality magnets, which are essential for industries like electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Economic losses for our allies are not wins for the U.S.

Noahpinion • 23412 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic Disparities Trade Relations
  1. Economic losses for our allies should not be seen as wins for the U.S. It's important not to compare their economic struggles to U.S. achievements.
  2. The U.S. has outpaced many rich nations economically since 1990, sustaining a fairly constant share of global GDP.
  3. It's crucial for the U.S. to view allies like Germany, the UK, and Japan as partners, not rivals. Their strength contributes to American strength, and vice versa.

Two Mexicos

Diane Francis • 1218 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade Relations Crime Policy Economic Growth Drug policy International relations
  1. Mexico's economy is booming, making it the top trading partner for the U.S. since it offers tariff-free exports, especially in manufacturing. This growth is significant, but it also hides the country's ongoing struggles with crime and drug cartels.
  2. The drug trade contributes greatly to violence in Mexico, with over 30,000 murders recorded in a single year. This results in a stark contrast between a thriving economy and a dangerous underworld, leading to chaos in many regions.
  3. The U.S. has a role in Mexico's challenges due to its demand for drugs and porous borders. Solutions like sealing the border and addressing addiction more effectively may be necessary to help both countries combat these issues.

Innovation Emergency with Trump 1.0's Patent Director

ChinaTalk • 237 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intellectual Property Legislation Innovation Technology Policy Trade Relations
  1. China is now granting way more patents than the United States, which may indicate they're leading in innovation. This shift in patent dominance could be a warning sign for the US economy.
  2. There's a tension in patent law between protecting inventors and allowing the public access to innovations. Strong patent rights can encourage investment in risky new technologies, but if they're too strong, they can limit public access.
  3. US companies sometimes prefer to enforce patents in China because their courts can provide quicker and more effective rulings. This shows a potential weakness in the American patent system that could need serious reforms.

FAFOnomics: How Chaos Became America's Economic Strategy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 201 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Trade Relations Political strategy Globalization
  1. America is using chaos as a strategy in its economy, making decisions that hurt trust with allies while trying to grab attention. This tactic might work for now, but it’s risky and unsustainable.
  2. The U.S. economy relies heavily on global partnerships and imports, which means isolationist policies could backfire by harming America's own economic health. We can't just unplug from the global economy and expect to thrive.
  3. Tariffs meant to protect American jobs are actually a tax on American consumers. This might not lead to the expected benefits for workers and could hurt everyday people financially.

How the European Union passed a brave new law to protect our planet's forests, only to realise that it is a logistical and bureaucratic nightmare that nobody wants

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 158 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Environmental Policy Legislation Bureaucracy Sustainability Trade Relations
  1. The EU passed a new law to protect forests, but many people now think it's too complicated and doesn't really help anyone.
  2. The law could hurt trade relationships, especially with countries in South America, affecting a lot of local economies.
  3. Even the lawmakers who supported this regulation are now realizing it may be unworkable and possibly damaging to their own industries.

NATO failed in Ukraine against Russia. Now it's targeting China

Geopolitical Economy Report • 418 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Imperialism Food security Trade Relations Military Strategy
  1. NATO's shift from targeting Russia in Ukraine to targeting China in the Pacific is a significant geopolitical move.
  2. There are divisions within NATO, with European business interests pushing back against the political establishment's support for the US-led agenda.
  3. The breakdown of the Grain Deal signifies larger issues of imperialism and economic interests, highlighting the complexities of global trade dynamics.

Xu Gao on Establishing a Govt-Market Relationship with Chinese Characteristics

Pekingnology • 64 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Income Inequality Government Role Trade Relations
  1. Xu Gao believes the government should play an active role in the economy, especially during crises. He suggests that when markets fail, government intervention is necessary to stabilize them.
  2. He emphasizes the importance of addressing income inequality, arguing that the government needs to redistribute wealth more effectively. This will help ensure social harmony and allow all citizens to benefit from economic growth.
  3. Gao also highlights that targeted government policies can promote industrial development. He points to China's new energy vehicle industry as a successful example of how strategic support can lead to significant economic advancements.