The hottest National Security Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 370 implied HN points 22 Mar 26
  1. About 50,000 TSA officers have been forced to work without pay during a DHS funding standoff, creating financial strain and low morale.
  2. High absenteeism and hundreds of resignations have left many airports short-staffed, causing long security lines and increased reliance on other agencies to fill gaps.
  3. Frontline officers warn the staffing crisis makes airports less safe and urge Congress to fund the Department of Homeland Security quickly to avoid a security failure.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 129 implied HN points 23 Mar 26
  1. He was widely respected for long public service and praised for helping protect the country after 9/11 and for his commitment to the rule of law.
  2. The president’s blunt posthumous insult shows how extreme, routine vitriol has become in the current political era.
  3. He missed the chance to decisively debunk the Trump-Russia claims, and that failure let the scandal fester and helped fuel the rancorous MAGA politics, tarnishing his legacy.
Caitlin’s Newsletter 1932 implied HN points 20 Mar 26
  1. Professional warmongers never admit their policies were wrong; they insist wars fail only because of poor execution, not because the idea was bad.
  2. John Bolton is a prime example of this hypocrisy—he pushed for regime change in Iran without a viable plan and now blames others for not preparing properly.
  3. The imperial system elevates the least wise and least compassionate people, and that dynamic makes radical, systemic change urgently necessary.
Breaking the News 8093 implied HN points 08 Mar 26
  1. Good strategy means thinking several moves ahead and being ready to change plans faster than your opponent; if leaders don’t ask “How does this end?” they can cause needless disaster.
  2. You shouldn’t choose wars of choice without exhausting alternatives and imagining what could go wrong; many problems have no military solution, so diplomacy and clear, systematic decision rules must come first.
  3. Modern fighting often favors cheap, numerous technologies over a few expensive systems, and a public insulated from combat plus easy political posturing makes it too easy to send others into long, costly wars.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 2465 implied HN points 19 Mar 26
  1. The new administration’s intelligence leaders kept core surveillance tools in place instead of dismantling the system.
  2. The FBI reported a 34% jump in searches on Americans in a foreign intelligence database in 2025 versus the prior administration’s final year.
  3. The increase and low public attention suggest officials are preserving or expanding spying powers while keeping the activity out of the spotlight.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:
Erik Torenberg's Thoughts 325 implied HN points 17 Mar 26
  1. When powerful technologies are invented they often create an air of inevitability about their use, and that can place heavy moral responsibility on their creators.
  2. If private companies build super-powerful weapons it raises a hard question about who gets to decide how they're used—governments, corporations, or someone else must be justified as the steward of that power.
  3. AI looks like the next such superweapon, so we urgently need to decide who should control its military use and make a clear case for that choice rather than treating control as a given.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 1650 implied HN points 20 Mar 26
  1. A senior national security official, Joe Kent, resigned over the Iran war, quickly joined the new right media circuit making Israel-centric claims, and is reportedly under FBI investigation for allegedly sharing classified information.
  2. A reductive, conspiratorial narrative blaming Israel for many unrelated global events is spreading widely online, simplifying complex conflicts and gaining traction across different platforms.
  3. The piece is a short, sarcastic political and cultural roundup produced with AI narration, and much of the deeper reporting is behind a paywall that asks readers to subscribe.
Glenn Greenwald 3656 implied HN points 18 Mar 26
  1. She has long warned against regime-change wars and strongly opposed the idea of a U.S. war with Iran.
  2. Despite that rhetoric, she has repeatedly accepted humiliations and jumped through hoops to cling to her Washington position, with a recent action described as a new low.
  3. Her behavior is contrasted with another figure’s courage and conscience, highlighting a split between careerism and principled opposition to war.
Noahpinion 22706 implied HN points 06 Mar 26
  1. Governments and AI companies are in a real power struggle because states must keep a monopoly on force and won’t tolerate private actors holding godlike or military-grade AI capabilities.
  2. AI agents are rapidly turning into powerful weapons that ordinary people could misuse to cause massive harm, and current regulation and safeguards are lagging behind these risks.
  3. Partisan arguments and company values hide a basic choice: AI firms can cooperate with government oversight and limits, or face coercive state action if they seem to threaten national security.
Letters from an American 4 implied HN points 23 Mar 26
  1. The president has been making increasingly erratic and inflammatory public statements, including inappropriate historical references and threats toward opponents and foreign targets.
  2. Military action against Iran has backfired, contributing to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the administration lifted long-standing oil sanctions to try to lower prices—moves critics say could send billions to Iran and worsen global security risks.
  3. The Department of Homeland Security is shadowed by allegations of crony contracts and excessive influence from political allies, while ICE has been expanded and threatened to be used as a political tool, with funding tied to controversial voting restrictions.
Don't Worry About the Vase 1433 implied HN points 20 Mar 26
  1. The federal framework mainly aims to preempt state AI laws and acts as a moratorium, while offering little concrete federal regulation beyond modest programs.
  2. It does include some welcome elements like protections against federal censorship, child safety measures (age assurance), and support for infrastructure and workforce programs.
  3. A major flaw is that it ignores frontier and existential AI risks and has no transparency requirements, and it would block states from addressing those risks unless an exception for frontier-risk laws is added.
Astral Codex Ten 38542 implied HN points 25 Feb 26
  1. The Pentagon tried to strip Anthropic's contract limits and demand its AI be available for “all lawful purposes,” threatening actions like the Defense Production Act or a “supply chain risk” designation that could effectively destroy the company.
  2. Anthropic pushed back, refusing to allow use for mass domestic surveillance or no-human-in-the-loop weapons, and has won backing from other AI firms and critics who see this as a stand for civil liberties and safety norms.
  3. The conflict shows a dangerous precedent: using national-security powers to strong-arm domestic tech firms would chill investment and vendor cooperation, so likely outcomes include contract cancellation, replacing vendors, and calls for legal or policy checks on such government leverage.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 1878 implied HN points 17 Mar 26
  1. Crypto prediction markets now handle huge, fast-moving wagers on real-world conflicts and sometimes outpace traditional sportsbooks in volume.
  2. A pattern of last-minute, correct bets ahead of military strikes has raised strong concerns about insider information and market manipulation, triggering investigations and alarm.
  3. Platforms, institutions, and lawmakers are reacting — markets are being restricted or removed, firms are partnering with surveillance and analytics companies, and Congress is proposing bans to curb officials and unethical profit from geopolitical events.
Astral Codex Ten 28838 implied HN points 01 Mar 26
  1. Saying systems can be used for “all lawful use” is not a real safeguard because existing laws and internal defense policies have big loopholes and can be reinterpreted or changed.
  2. AI removes the scale and cost limits that once made mass domestic surveillance impractical, so governments can lawfully buy or incidentally collect data and then use AI to analyze and profile large populations.
  3. Autonomous-weapon rules mostly live in vague, changeable defense policies, so allowing only “lawful” uses can still permit weapons with little human judgment; companies should avoid contracts that could force them to build systems without strong safeguards.
Thinking about... 1582 implied HN points 08 Mar 26
  1. A war with Iran or related actions could provoke or be followed by a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, which political actors might use as a pretext to cancel or federalize upcoming elections.
  2. Counterterror defenses have been weakened by policy choices, politicized and inexperienced leaders, and misplaced focus on immigration, making both foreign and domestic threats more likely and harder to stop.
  3. Citizens and local authorities must prepare now, avoid being surprised or panicked by an attack, and refuse to let any crisis be used to suspend democratic checks or steal elections.
Don't Worry About the Vase 1926 implied HN points 18 Mar 26
  1. Anthropic is suing the government over a broad "supply chain risk" designation, and it's unclear whether a court will grant the emergency restraining order they seek despite strong support from many tech firms.
  2. The government is arguing that firms' ethical limits make them a sabotage risk and has pressured contractors to stop using Anthropic, which looks like retaliation and skipped normal debarment procedures.
  3. A government win or forced "all lawful use" contract terms could remove safety guardrails, set a precedent to coerce other companies, and enable future censorship or misuse while laws and procurement rules lag behind.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 1934 implied HN points 16 Mar 26
  1. The president is pushing allied countries and China to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, since about 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
  2. Major partners like Japan and Australia have declined and the UK is noncommittal, so China’s decision could make or break a planned summit and put strain on NATO relations.
  3. Iran’s actions are already squeezing global energy supplies, and the narrowness of the strait makes tankers vulnerable to cheap weapons, though a wider crisis has been avoided so far.
Marcus on AI 17943 implied HN points 25 Feb 26
  1. The U.S. government is pushing to use AI everywhere and is pressuring companies to grant unrestricted access for surveillance and military uses.
  2. Current generative AI models are unreliable and prone to hallucinations. Simulations show they often recommend extreme actions like nuclear strikes, so they can't be trusted for life-or-death decisions.
  3. Embedding these jagged, unreliable LLMs into critical systems without strict safeguards could lead to catastrophe, so resisting unrestricted deployment is urgently important.
The Chris Hedges Report 231 implied HN points 19 Mar 26
  1. An influence campaign by Israeli-aligned actors and wealthy backers leveraged Trump’s transactional instincts and fears to push him toward aggressive action against Iran.
  2. The FBI’s use of informants and sting operations appears to have manufactured or exaggerated assassination plots on U.S. soil, reinforcing the belief that Iran was targeting Trump and helping justify escalation.
  3. Those pressures contributed to a damaging war that shut down negotiations, provoked heavy retaliation, and raised the risk of a wider or even nuclear confrontation while leaving key questions about motives and accountability.
Marcus on AI 12489 implied HN points 27 Feb 26
  1. A major clash is emerging between the U.S. government and AI companies over using advanced models for military or surveillance purposes, reportedly sparked by a nuclear-weapons scenario.
  2. Top AI firms and leaders are publicly resisting government demands, showing that Silicon Valley may not easily bow to political pressure.
  3. Escalating pressure risks alienating the tech sector and could backfire politically if rushed military AI deployment causes harm, potentially defining the president's legacy around controversial AI policies.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 996 implied HN points 18 Mar 26
  1. Joe Kent, who led the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest over a potential war with Iran and is being hailed by some as an anti-war dissident.
  2. His resignation letter claims President Trump was misled by Israel and its backers about an imminent Iranian threat, which raises doubts about Kent's reliability as an intelligence witness.
  3. Reactions are divided—Tucker Carlson praised Kent as brave while figures like Tulsi Gabbard defended the president—so it’s unclear whether more officials will follow his lead.
Marcus on AI 13477 implied HN points 26 Feb 26
  1. The Pentagon is pressuring an AI company for full access to its software, which could enable mass surveillance and autonomous weapons — possibly even systems controlling nuclear launches — without humans in the loop.
  2. The move looks like an attempt to bypass Congress and force a rapid corporate policy change under threat, setting a dangerous precedent where a single official can decide nation‑level AI uses.
  3. Decisions about AI of this magnitude need public debate and congressional oversight, not unilateral action; citizens should contact their Senators and Representatives now to demand oversight and legal safeguards against autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.
Why is this interesting? 723 implied HN points 10 Mar 26
  1. A compact, silent, backpack-sized directed-energy device with foreign components is now plausible and was reportedly tested, making a covert attack on diplomats more believable than previously thought.
  2. Officials ran two parallel narratives: public, lawyerly assessments downplayed foreign responsibility while private communications and meetings showed sympathy for victims, suggesting an intentional effort to manage political and escalation risks.
  3. Scientific panels pointed to pulsed microwave energy as a plausible cause for some cases, and the weapon’s engineered waveform—rather than just hardware—raises fresh questions about coverups, delayed responses, and past incidents like the Moscow Signal.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 5866 implied HN points 06 Mar 26
  1. The FBI has long kept a separate, non-searchable "prohibited access" filing system that only a very small number of senior officials can access.
  2. Whistleblowers and congressional pressure have prompted a task force to begin examining decades of those hidden files, and some records have already been turned over to Congress.
  3. The files reportedly include off-books surveillance and politically sensitive investigations spanning both parties since at least 1999, raising serious oversight and constitutional concerns.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 746 implied HN points 17 Mar 26
  1. Leftist activists quickly mobilized large anti-war protests after U.S. strikes on Iran, using the same slogans and tactics seen in recent anti‑ICE and anti‑Israel rallies.
  2. The ANSWER Coalition functions as an umbrella for far‑left groups, coordinating a demonstration‑industrial ecosystem where organizations share infrastructure, messaging, and reach to produce disruptive rallies.
  3. Many of these organizations are tied to hostile foreign actors, including Chinese‑backed networks, which raises concerns about outside funding, coordination, and possible legal or ethical problems.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 792 implied HN points 17 Mar 26
  1. Israel reportedly killed several top Iranian security figures, including Ali Larijani.
  2. Larijani had recently become head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and was seen as the most powerful remaining military/security leader in the regime.
  3. The strike is a major, unprecedented blow that creates a leadership vacuum and raises big questions about who will lead Iran’s security apparatus next.
Nonzero Newsletter 790 implied HN points 21 Mar 26
  1. War is often non-zero-sum: even if one side gains land or security, the human and economic losses can leave both sides worse off.
  2. Political leaders can personally benefit from conflicts, so they may start or prolong wars for domestic political gain even when the country as a whole suffers.
  3. If people recognize that wars are often driven by leaders' incentives and special-interest pressure, they can be more skeptical of threat inflation and help push to change the incentives that make war politically rewarding.
Marcus on AI 7983 implied HN points 26 Feb 26
  1. LLMs in their current form must not be used in fully lethal autonomous weapon systems. They are not fit to make life-or-death decisions.
  2. It is ludicrous and dangerous to suggest using today’s LLMs for lethal tasks, and such proposals should be rejected.
  3. Policymakers and military leaders should act with reason and sanity by imposing strict limits and oversight on AI weaponization, exercising caution and restraint before any autonomous lethal capabilities are considered.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 403 implied HN points 19 Mar 26
  1. The piece argues that President Trump can achieve a lasting victory in Iran.
  2. The president wants an end to the war, but he also believes a premature exit would leave Iran’s core threat intact.
  3. Active U.S. military operations, like Operation Epic Fury in the Eastern Mediterranean, show ongoing engagement and imply a need for sustained pressure.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 2758 implied HN points 10 Mar 26
  1. A longtime U.S. journalist was criminally charged under a sanctions law for hosting and being paid by a Russian TV program, an unprecedented use of IEEPA that effectively criminalizes certain foreign media employment.
  2. An aggressive FBI raid confiscated many personal belongings and the journalist now lives in Russia under indictment, showing severe personal consequences and that mainstream U.S. outlets largely distanced themselves despite past reliance on his expertise.
  3. The case raises serious First Amendment and press-freedom concerns because the show was in Russian for a Russian audience and there are no public espionage or clear disinformation allegations, creating a chilling precedent for journalists and others paid by foreign outlets.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 4232 implied HN points 06 Mar 26
  1. Hidden "prohibited access" FBI files could reveal decades of off-books domestic surveillance and misconduct, similar to past intelligence scandals.
  2. Since 9/11 the FBI shifted toward intelligence and political spying, expanding secrecy and intrusive collection practices with weak oversight.
  3. Releasing these files to Congress is a rare chance for transparency and reform, but the disclosures may be incomplete or blocked unless sustained political pressure forces real accountability.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 259 implied HN points 19 Mar 26
  1. The current campaign against Iran is functioning as a global energy war rather than a traditional territorial conflict, because it directly threatens the oil and gas flows that keep economies running.
  2. Oil prices are the central battleground — spikes quickly translate into pain at the pump and broader economic strain, and disruptions to natural gas supply (like halted LNG) are making the pressure worse instead of easing it.
  3. There is growing pressure on the president to end the war to stabilize energy markets, but there are political and strategic options that could let him buy time and continue the campaign.
Don't Worry About the Vase 4390 implied HN points 06 Mar 26
  1. The Department of War’s move to label Anthropic a supply chain risk was largely punitive and overreach, using threats of extreme measures to force compliance and risking private property rights.
  2. The official designation is narrowly based on 10 USC 3252 and only affects direct Department contracts, so most customers and major cloud partners (e.g., Microsoft) will likely continue using Anthropic and broad economic harm should be limited.
  3. Anthropic will probably challenge the designation in court while negotiations continue, and the incident highlights deeper worries about weak AI governance and the danger of governments choosing raw power over lawful, narrowly targeted regulation.
Read Max 6138 implied HN points 27 Feb 26
  1. The Anthropic–Pentagon fight shows that disagreements over what AI should be allowed to do—especially bans on mass surveillance and autonomous lethal weapons—can trigger dramatic government action that could cripple a company and reshape military AI procurement.
  2. Silicon Valley is cleaving into factions: a Tech‑Right bloc that wants fewer guardrails and to win government contracts and a Rationalist/Effective‑Altruist influenced camp that treats safety and alignment as moral imperatives, with both money and ideology driving the clash.
  3. Tech workers are mobilizing against contracts that would enable domestic surveillance or autonomous killing, reviving the kind of labor power seen in the Project Maven protests and pressuring firms to keep or adopt strict red lines.
Silver Bulletin 618 implied HN points 17 Mar 26
  1. Counting on a leader to always chicken out is a risky strategy. When someone usually faces few consequences, they’re more likely to take bold or reckless actions.
  2. Markets don’t act like a single rational player, so the idea that market panic will reliably force policy reversals (the “Trump put”) is unstable. Market behavior can be chaotic, uncoordinated, and sometimes escalate rather than deter.
  3. War in the Middle East is a multilateral fog-of-war problem with many actors who can change the dynamics. That makes outcomes, like oil shocks or unintended escalation, much harder to predict and potentially irreversible.
TK News by Matt Taibbi 3268 implied HN points 06 Mar 26
  1. The FBI uses a separate top‑secret database (called Sentinel Gold) to hold “prohibited access” files that aren’t kept in the bureau’s regular case system.
  2. Information marked prohibited is hidden from normal searches and can be withheld from FBI agents, Congress, and other oversight bodies, leaving gaps where records of misconduct or spying should be.
  3. Only a very small, specially privileged group can access those files, which raises serious accountability and oversight concerns.
Glenn Greenwald 3892 implied HN points 04 Mar 26
  1. For decades U.S. politics treated support for Israel as an unbreakable bipartisan consensus, but that consensus has now collapsed.
  2. Public opinion has shifted sharply, with most demographic groups — especially younger Americans — now sympathizing more with Palestinians than Israelis.
  3. U.S. military involvement alongside Israel has escalated into dangerous strikes against Iran and other targets, risking a wider regional war and fueling growing domestic opposition.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 718 implied HN points 16 Mar 26
  1. A prominent commentator says the CIA read his texts and may be preparing criminal charges because he talked to people in Iran before a military operation.
  2. If true, surveilling a broadcaster or using laws like FARA to punish routine contacts with foreign sources would be alarming and could threaten free speech and press protections.
  3. He frequently questions other Americans’ loyalty, so insisting he’s being framed as a foreign agent exposes a clear hypocrisy and undercuts his own arguments.
Noahpinion 27529 implied HN points 27 Jan 26
  1. The U.S. should allow Chinese electric cars in under tight rules — low tariffs and limited imports at first, plus requirements for U.S. factories, joint ventures, and local content to spur domestic production.
  2. Cheap, high-quality Chinese EVs would raise American EV adoption, expand charging infrastructure, and force U.S. automakers to invest and innovate, helping rebuild the domestic battery and motor supply chain.
  3. Espionage and sabotage are real risks, but they can be managed with strong cybersecurity, oversight, American-hosted software and networks, and strict monitoring of components, making controlled access preferable to an outright ban.