The hottest Valuations Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Private Credit Exec Admits "All" Marks Are "Wrong"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. A top private credit firm admitted that most valuation marks in the private markets are wrong.
  2. They estimated that loans to a typical leveraged mid-size software company might only recover about 20 to 40 cents on the dollar if things go south.
  3. That blunt warning suggests private market valuations are likely overstated and investors could face much bigger losses than current marks imply.

QTR & Adam Taggart: Private Credit, Valuations, Favorite Sectors

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Markets look stronger on the surface than they actually are, with QE, passive flows, and options activity propping up stretched valuations and hiding pockets of fragility.
  2. Private credit is under real stress — many funds face redemptions, gated withdrawals, and questionable marks, creating the risk of a broader credit event.
  3. A more defensive stance is sensible: favor energy, utilities, and staples while selectively pursuing opportunities in nuclear, oil & gas, cybersecurity, psychedelics, and precious metals, and be cautious about overbuilt AI/software plays.

AI is eating consulting (ft. Accenture, IBM, Gartner, Genpact)

Enterprise AI Trends • 168 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
💼 Business Valuations
  1. AI is driving short-term demand for consulting work and firms are adopting AI internally to boost their margins.
  2. Despite that tailwind, weak guidance and management comments suggest AI could flip into a headwind and growth may decelerate into 2027 as services get commoditized.
  3. The bullish trade on consulting has underperformed so far, so investors should closely watch guidance, margin improvements, and whether firms can avoid seat compression before assuming lasting gains.

Public Vs Private Markets

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Private market valuations can be misleading since they don't reflect daily changes like public markets do. So, an AI startup might look valuable, but without real sales, that value is uncertain.
  2. AI companies are mostly funded by private investors, not public ones. If these companies fail, the stock market may notice, but it won't cause a huge crash, unlike failures in public companies.
  3. Government regulation of AI could harm its growth and innovation. A light regulatory touch has helped the U.S. tech industry thrive, so heavy regulations could stifle its potential.

Brex’s exit isn’t a failure

Alex's Personal Blog • 164 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
💼 Business Valuations
  1. Brex's sale to Capital One for about $5.15 billion should be seen as a success, not a failure. Despite earlier frothy valuations, the company turned more than a billion of investor capital into a multi‑billion dollar exit.
  2. OpenAI is growing rapidly and is financially healthy; it added over $1 billion in ARR in a month and still has large cash reserves and access to new funding. That makes the 'running out of money' narrative unlikely in the near term.
  3. The tech landscape is mixed: regulators are signaling tougher scrutiny of big-company acquisitions and layoffs continue at major firms, even as self‑driving services expand into new cities. Growth and dealmaking will therefore occur under greater pressure and oversight.
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Make Europe Great Again

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💼 Business Valuations
  1. OpenAI is betting that scaling compute drives revenue and is now pushing practical adoption, including monetizing free tiers with ads.
  2. Software valuations have bifurcated: AI-first startups with extreme growth get huge private valuations, while many post-IPO SaaS firms face single-digit public multiples, so new companies must show outlier growth to attract funding.
  3. Recent U.S.–Europe tensions could boost demand for European cloud, AI, defense, and energy tech, helping Europe retain talent and spur a regional tech resurgence.

Netflix Co-founder's 'The Canada Rule' For Building Successful Startups 🧐 | Pre-Money Valuation Growing 💹| VC Remote Jobs

Venture Curator • 239 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Valuations
  1. The 'Canada Rule' advises startups to focus on one or two important things rather than chasing every opportunity.
  2. Pre-money valuations in Europe are showing growth across different stages, indicating market resilience.
  3. VCs are using 'Dry Powder' in convertible bridge rounds, showcasing creative financing strategies by founders.

Long Take: How Wise disrupted $150T of Cross-Border Payments and earns $1B in revenue

The Fintech Blueprint • 511 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Wise disrupted the costly traditional cross-border payment system by using a peer-to-peer platform and offering transparent, low fees.
  2. The company earned $1.2B in revenue in 2021 with a significant portion coming from its margin on FX transfers.
  3. Wise's growth and profitability are driven by its innovative approach to simplifying and optimizing cross-border transactions.

Did Oracle Just Pop The AI Bubble?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Oracle’s stock has plunged about 40% over the last three months, signaling a big shift in investor sentiment.
  2. A recent earnings miss acted like a warning shot, suggesting the company isn’t meeting high expectations tied to AI performance.
  3. Traders are watching Oracle closely today for signs that this could mark a broader cooling of the AI-driven market rally.

The 4 Problems of Airdrops

DeFi Weekly • 235 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
🔮 Crypto Valuations
  1. Decentralisation theatrics don't necessarily protect against legal issues with airdrops.
  2. Airdrops can lead to early liquidity for team members and investors, impacting valuations.
  3. Inflated user counts from airdrops may not reflect genuine user ownership or value creation.

What Every Founder Should Know About Valuations? | Is The VC Investment Model Broken? | VC Remote Jobs and More

Venture Curator • 199 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💼 Business Valuations
  1. Valuation of a company is determined by factors like the stage of the company, funding competition, leadership team experience, market size, and financial performance.
  2. The VC investment model is facing challenges due to factors like high interest rates, late-stage investments yielding lower returns, and the importance of profitability.
  3. Companies don't always need to calculate their value when fundraising; options like convertible notes and SAFEs allow for postponing valuation to later rounds to avoid potential dilution.

Clouded Judgement 12.19.25 - The Front Door to the Systems of Record

Clouded Judgement • 12 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Valuations
  1. Systems of record will remain the essential source of truth, but agents and new interfaces create a different "front door" that could be owned by others and shift where value accrues.
  2. The travel industry shows the pattern: record-keeping platforms kept the data while consumer-facing OTAs captured the front door and most economic upside, implying enterprise SaaS could see the same outcome.
  3. Legacy SaaS firms can either build the new front door or defend by locking data and charging egress fees, and many are likely to adopt defensive tactics that change margins and value capture.

Let’s Talk About Repricing Stock Options

Condensing the Cloud • 19 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Valuations
  1. Repricing employee stock options can be a way to boost employee morale and engagement during challenging times.
  2. Realigning incentives through option repricing can help retain top talent and attract new talent in a competitive job market.
  3. When considering repricing stock options, companies should focus on retaining trust, transparency, and fairness within the workforce.

Observations from the 2023 Enterprise Tech 30

Tanay’s Newsletter • 176 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Valuations
  1. The 2023 Enterprise Tech 30 saw a high number of new companies due to AI and a shifting market landscape.
  2. Generative AI is rapidly impacting the tech industry, with many companies leveraging its capabilities.
  3. Product-led growth is becoming a common approach for companies, with many on the list following this model.

NBA Valuations Reach $4.4 Billion As The Focus On Real Estate Development Intensifies

Huddle Up • 34 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Valuations
  1. NBA teams are now worth an average of $4.4 billion. This shows how valuable basketball franchises have become.
  2. The Golden State Warriors are the most valuable team at $8.8 billion, followed by the Knicks and Lakers. These teams are leading the pack in terms of worth.
  3. Real estate development is becoming more important for NBA teams. It seems teams are trying to boost their value through property investments.

A Look Back at Q1 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement • 12 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
💼 Business Valuations
  1. Analysis of Q1 public cloud software earnings provides insights for startup entrepreneurs on managing their businesses.
  2. Indications suggest a potential bottoming phase in the software industry with hopes for reacceleration by the year's end.
  3. Metrics such as revenue performance, growth, and sales efficiency play key roles in evaluating the success of a quarter for cloud businesses.

The Shadow Price of Venture Capital

Who is Nnamdi • 2 HN points • 14 Jun 23
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Venture valuations are currently 60% higher than expected based on the amount of capital invested.
  2. Valuations and capital invested in venture typically trend together, with one affecting the other.
  3. The concept of 'shadow price' in venture capital highlights a discrepancy between actual transaction prices and hypothetical market-clearing prices.

The Equal Ventures Insurance Index

Equal Ventures • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Insurtech equities rebounded in 1H 2023 but are still down from peak 2021 valuations.
  2. Insurtech carriers outperformed legacy P&C carriers in Q2, showing stock-specific improvements.
  3. Legacy brokers are performing well with ongoing premium growth and resilience to higher interest rates.

Look ma, I'm a builder

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Valuations
  1. Venture capital fundraising has fallen a lot, but the U.S. — especially AI startups — grabbed a much bigger share of global funding, making American AI the easiest path to raise capital and non-American, non-AI startups the hardest.
  2. Anthropic’s sky-high $350B valuation can be justified by its rapid revenue growth and familiar revenue multiples, so the raise looks defensible even on conservative growth assumptions.
  3. New dev tools like Claude Code let individuals build powerful apps quickly (for example a GTO poker trainer), and there’s clear demand for cheap, simple hosting so creators can publish and run personal AI apps on the go.

At 25x ARR, why is Cursor so cheap?

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Valuations
  1. Cursor, an AI coding tool, has impressive annual revenue of $100 million but is valued at only 25 times that amount. This valuation seems low for such a fast-growing company.
  2. In comparison, other AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are raising funds at much higher valuation multiples, around 42.4x to 68.5x their revenue.
  3. Investors might find Cursor a more appealing option due to its lower valuation compared to its peers, making it an interesting investment opportunity.