Clouded Judgement

Clouded Judgement offers weekly data-driven analysis on SaaS companies, focusing on financial metrics, economic impacts, and market trends affecting the cloud software industry. It covers topics from IPO readiness and valuation methods to quarterly earnings and optimization cycles, providing insights into the health and future of software businesses.

SaaS Company Analysis Economic Trends and Their Impact on Technology Financial Metrics and Valuation IPO Process and Market Openings Quarterly Earnings Reports Software Consumption Trends Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effects on Markets

The hottest Substack posts of Clouded Judgement

And their main takeaways

Clouded Judgement 1.19.24 - The Bar for Going Public

2 HN points • 19 Jan 24
💼 Business Finance Metrics Investing Market Analysis Valuation
  1. The bar for going public is set very high, with companies needing impressive metrics like $200m ARR, 50% YoY growth, and over 120% net retention.
  2. New IPOs face challenges like concentrated ownership, lower liquidity, high stock dilution, and the need to build trust with public market investors.
  3. Startups aiming to go public should focus on metrics attractive to public market investors, including understanding stock compensation and equity dilution.

Clouded Judgement 1.12.24 - Hard Truths

1 HN point • 12 Jan 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investing Market Trends Company Valuation
  1. In 2021, there was an influx of funding in the venture market, leading to challenges for startups to meet milestones in the future.
  2. Startups need to assess if their product has a unique market fit and can sustainably operate independently.
  3. Having honest conversations now about a startup's viability can prevent future struggles, especially as funding balances decrease.