The hottest Substack posts of steigan.no

And their main takeaways

Daily Chartbook #236

1283 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
  1. The median U.S. home-sale price increased by 1.5% from a year earlier, showing the first rise in nearly five months.
  2. A homebuyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $450,000 home with today's average rate, a decrease in purchasing power from earlier in the year.
  3. Higher-income households are becoming concerned about their ability to make minimum debt payments in the next three months.

Daily Chartbook #247

1231 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
  1. A first-time homebuyer needs to earn $64,500 per year to afford a typical 'starter' home in the U.S., a 13% increase from the previous year.
  2. Household debt service in the U.S. remains low despite higher interest rates.
  3. Countries that have raised policy rates show mostly positive GDP growth and decreasing unemployment rates.

Daily Chartbook #216

1336 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
  1. Trucking spot rates lower than 2019, not a relief for struggling carriers
  2. Companies holding $200 billion of excess inventory
  3. Bank lending standards tight, lending volumes down

Daily Chartbook #241

1231 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
  1. The typical U.S. home sold for $382,500, up 2.1% from a year ago.
  2. The total number of homes for sale is down 16%, the biggest decline in a year and a half.
  3. Existing home sales fell more than expected in June, with the median price at $410,200, the second highest ever.
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Daily Chartbook #308

1021 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index dropped 1.1% in September.
  2. The latest S&P Global Flash US PMIs showed growth in private sector output.
  3. The US is the only region not in contraction according to Global PMIs.

Daily Chartbook #230

1257 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
  1. Logistics Managers Index reached all-time low
  2. Financial conditions eased due to higher equity prices
  3. Labor shortages mentioned less during company earnings calls

Daily Chartbook #235

1231 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
  1. Mortgage rates are at a 7.07%, surpassing 7% for the first time since 2002.
  2. Mortgage applications increased by 0.9% despite the rise in rates.
  3. The U.S. rental market is slowing, but the median asking rent is still close to its record high.

Daily Chartbook #213

1310 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage demand is slightly down, but the decrease is not as sharp as before.
  2. Cash buyers in U.S. real estate are increasing, with one-third of purchases being made in cash.
  3. Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2023, the lowest rate since the global financial crisis.

Daily Chartbook #249

1179 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
  1. Logistics Managers' Index fell for 3rd consecutive month, hitting 5th straight all-time low.
  2. Global growth outlook shows more upgrades than downgrades in 12m rolling expectations.
  3. Financial conditions eased as US Financial Conditions Index dropped over the last week.

Daily Chartbook #274

1100 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
  1. Mortgage demand has dropped for the 6th time in 7 weeks.
  2. There is upward pressure on US rates due to $7.6 trillion in maturing US government bonds.
  3. Credit management survey shows bankruptcies increased by 2.1 and stand at 50.2.

Daily Chartbook #237

1205 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
  1. US tax receipts tumbling indicates a deep recession
  2. Import prices falling significantly, biggest decline since 2020
  3. National office vacancy rate expected to rise while market rents trend lower

Daily Chartbook #253

1152 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23
  1. Shelter inflation is expected to slow and potentially turn negative by mid-2024.
  2. Supply chain indices are rebounding, dashing deflation hopes.
  3. Wholesale used-vehicle prices dropped 1.6% in July and are 11.6% lower year-over-year.

Daily Chartbook #214

1283 implied HN points • 09 Jun 23
  1. Some global sectors have pricing power to hike prices, while others are struggling with demand.
  2. Morgan Stanley's cycle indicator suggests the expansion from pandemic lows is nearing completion.
  3. 'True financial conditions' index shows alarming tightness, reminiscent of the 2008 credit crisis.

Daily Chartbook #196

1362 implied HN points • 05 May 23
  1. Global supply chain pressures are at a new low from 2010.
  2. Lending conditions are tightening, acting as de facto rate hikes.
  3. Probability of a US recession within 12 months remains high.

Daily Chartbook #206

1310 implied HN points • 27 May 23
  1. Over 2.49 million US airline travelers per day over the last week, highest since August 2019.
  2. 27 large debtors filed for bankruptcy in 2023 compared to 40 in 2022.
  3. Personal Income and Spending rose significantly on a monthly basis in April, with spending soaring 0.8% and both rising year-over-year.

Daily Chartbook #212

1283 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
  1. Logistics manager index hits all-time low with no signs of improvement in freight market
  2. Demand for cardboard has fallen similar to past recessions
  3. Corporate fundamentals deteriorate with declining interest coverage and increasing leverage

Daily Chartbook #210

1283 implied HN points • 03 Jun 23
  1. Global food prices are seeing a plunge but food inflation remains steady.
  2. US economy added more jobs than expected in May, marking a positive trend.
  3. The unemployment rate in the US increased slightly in May but labor force participation rate improved.

Daily Chartbook #223

1231 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
  1. Existing home sales rose in May for the first time since February.
  2. The median selling price of homes has decreased by 3.1% from a year ago.
  3. Monthly mortgage payments have doubled since the beginning of last year, potentially impacting the housing market.

Daily Chartbook #221

1231 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
  1. The US Housing Market Index rose steadily due to low existing inventory.
  2. Homebuilder sentiment rebounded swiftly over six months, similar to the period post-COVID.
  3. Housing starts and building permits showed significant increases in May.

Daily Chartbook #227

1205 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage applications increased for the 3rd consecutive week despite rising rates.
  2. Freight rates from China to the US coasts are close to their April lows.
  3. The US trade balance showed improvements with a smaller goods deficit compared to estimates.

Daily Chartbook #203

1283 implied HN points • 24 May 23
  1. New home sales surged 4.1% MoM.
  2. Median new home price fell 8.2% y/y to $420,800.
  3. Bankruptcies are increasing, led by discretionary and healthcare companies.

Daily Chartbook #205

1257 implied HN points • 26 May 23
  1. Pending home sales in April were disappointing, unchanged from March and down 22.6% YoY.
  2. A global deflation shock is expected due to the reverse of stretched delivery times, leading to goods deflation.
  3. The US economy grew by 1.3% QtQ in Q1, which was above estimates but below Q4's growth.

Daily Chartbook #220

1205 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
  1. The gap between hard and soft economic data is the highest in 20 years.
  2. Tighter credit conditions suggest retail sales will continue to weaken.
  3. Consumption at the beginning of June showed notable improvement from the previous month.

Daily Chartbook #201

1257 implied HN points • 20 May 23
  1. The treasury cash balance is close to Yellen's minimum balance redline of $50bn.
  2. US business activity shows minimal growth based on the World Economics SMI index.
  3. Unemployment tends to rise after tightening cycles, with job loss estimates predicting a downturn.

Daily Chartbook #240

1126 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
  1. Housing starts were slightly better than expected but building permits weaker.
  2. Single-family building permits rose, indicating a temporary drop in starts.
  3. Total distressed corporate debt exceeds $590 billion.

Cheatsheet

969 implied HN points • 30 Sep 23
  1. The post includes updated information about the S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio
  2. Sector-level forward 12-month P/E ratios are discussed in the post
  3. Current valuation metrics, historical averages, and analyst ratings are provided in the post

Daily Chartbook #202

1231 implied HN points • 23 May 23
  1. The median U.S. home sale price dropped significantly in April.
  2. New listings of homes have decreased notably from the previous year.
  3. Federal debt is seen as unsustainable based on spending and revenue trends.

Daily Chartbook #217

1179 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
  1. Small business optimism index increased, with 'hard' components outperforming 'soft' components.
  2. Plans to raise selling prices rose while inflation concerns among small businesses also increased.
  3. Sentiment levels among FMS investors improved slightly but are still historically low.

Daily Chartbook #179

1310 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
  1. Global freight rates from China to the US West Coast have dropped significantly.
  2. The IMF has cut the 2023 world GDP growth outlook due to financial risks.
  3. The Atlanta Fed estimates a 2.2% growth for US real GDP in Q1 2023.

Daily Chartbook #215

1179 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
  1. Rent prices in the U.S. have dropped the most since March 2020.
  2. Younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials are facing higher rent and mortgage payments.
  3. Global food inflation is easing, with the UN World Food Price Index falling to its lowest since 2021.

Daily Chartbook #246

1074 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
  1. The typical U.S. home price rose 2.6% from last year.
  2. Active listings dropped by 16.9% from a year ago.
  3. U.S. rents are 0.7% lower than a year ago, the biggest decline since January 2021.

Daily Chartbook #211

1179 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
  1. Global freight rates are lower than in 2020
  2. Households still have excess savings, boosting consumer spending
  3. Fed has historical trends for cutting rates based on CPI and unemployment levels

Daily Chartbook #229

1126 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
  1. CFO optimism shifted slightly lower this quarter
  2. Corporate profits fell for the third consecutive quarter
  3. Headline PCE rose by 0.1% to 3.8% YoY

Daily Chartbook #192

1257 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
  1. Mortgage payment for median-priced homes in the US is at an all-time high of $2,555.
  2. US trucking rates have slightly increased, but some regions not participating in the rise.
  3. The Federal Reserve holds almost 20% of US debt.

Daily Chartbook #225

1126 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
  1. US household debt service payments are still below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Consumers have an average savings reserve of 4.4 months.
  3. The probability of recession in the United States hits 100% for Q42023/Q12024.

Daily Chartbook #198

1205 implied HN points • 17 May 23
  1. The US housing market is seeing an increase in homebuilder confidence due to a lack of existing supply.
  2. Industrial production rose in April, but remains stagnant on a year-over-year basis.
  3. There is a long-term demand for commodities as US industrial production has remained stagnant over the past two decades.

Daily Chartbook #224

1126 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
  1. Stockpiling drove supply chain stress and goods inflation; now facing goods deflation.
  2. Demand-driven inflation needs higher rates for demand destruction from the Fed.
  3. Leading Indicators suggest a recession with monthly data contributing.

Daily Chartbook #193

1231 implied HN points • 02 May 23
  1. The time it takes for unemployment to rise after the Fed starts hiking rates is about 14 months.
  2. Excess savings were estimated at $870 billion in March, leading to a relatively mild economic downturn.
  3. Despite rising rates, the construction industry is still showing strong job growth.